Prospective assessment of humoral and cellular immune responses to a 3rd COVID-19 mRNA vaccine dose among immunocompromised individuals.

BACKGROUND: Improved COVID-19 prevention is needed for immunocompromised individuals. METHODS: Prospective study of healthcare workers (HCW) and immunocompromised participants with baseline serology following 2 mRNA vaccines and who were retested after dose 3 (D3); multivariable regression was used to identify predictors of serological responses. IFNγ/TNFα T-cell responses were assessed in a subset. RESULTS: 536 participants were included: 492 immunocompromised [(206 solid organ transplant (SOT), 128 autoimmune, 80 hematologic malignancy (HM), 48 solid tumor, 25 HIV], 44 HCW. D3 significantly increased Spike IgG levels among all, but SOT and HM participants had the lowest median antibody levels post-D3 (increase from 0.09 to 0.83 and 0.27 to 1.92, respectively), versus HCW and persons with HIV, autoimmune conditions, and solid tumors (increases from 4.44 to 19.79, 2.9 to 15.75, 3.82 to 16.32, and 4.1 to 25.54, respectively). Seropositivity post-D3 was lowest for SOT (49.0%) and HM (57.8%), versus others (>90% seropositive). Neutralization post-D3 was lowest among SOT and HM. Predictors of lower antibody levels included low baseline levels and shorter intervals between vaccines. T-cell responses against Spike increased significantly among HCW and non-significantly among immunocompromised individuals. CONCLUSIONS: D3 significantly improves serological but not T-cell responses among immunocompromised individuals. SOT and HM patients have suboptimal responses to D3.

Implementing a Discharge Follow-up Phone Call Program Reduces Readmission Rates in an Integrated Health System.

ABSTRACT: In this study, we sought to determine the effect of implementing a large-scale discharge follow-up phone call program on hospital readmission rates. Previous work has shown that patients with unaddressed concerns during discharge have significantly higher rates of care complications and hospital readmissions. This study is an observational quality improvement project completed from April 17, 2020 to January 31, 2022 at 22 hospitals in a large, integrated academic health system. A nurse-led scripted discharge follow-up phone call program was implemented to contact all patients discharged from inpatient care within 72 hours of discharge. Readmission rates were tracked before and after project implementation. Over a 21-month span, 137,515 phone calls were placed, and 57.92% of patients were successfully contacted within 7 days of discharge. The 7-day readmission rate for contacted patients was 2.91% compared with 4.73% for noncontacted patients. The 30-day readmission rate for contacted patients was 11.00% compared with 12.17% for noncontacted patients. We have found that discharge follow-up phone calls targeting patients decreases risk of readmission, which improves overall patient outcomes.

The risk of clinically-relevant pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy is better predicted by a postoperative trend in drain fluid amylase compared to day 1 values in isolation.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies support early drain removal after pancreaticoduodenectomy in patients with a drain fluid amylase on postoperative day 1 (DFA1) level of ≤5,000. The use of DFA1 to guide drain management is increasingly common among pancreatic surgeons; however, the benefit of checking additional drain fluid amylases beyond DFA1 is less known. We sought to determine whether a change in drain fluid amylase (ΔDFA) is a more reliable predictor of clinically relevant postoperative fistula than DFA1 alone. METHODS: Using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Plan, pancreaticoduodenectomy patients with intraoperative drain placement, known DFA1, highest recorded drain fluid amylase value on postoperative day 2 to 5 (DFA2nd), day of drain removal, and clinically relevant postoperative fistula status were reviewed. Logistic models compared the predictive performance of DFA1 alone versus DFA1 + ΔDFA. RESULTS: A total of 2,417 patients with an overall clinically relevant postoperative fistula rate of 12.6% were analyzed. On multivariable regression, clinical predictors for clinically relevant postoperative fistula included body mass index, steroid use, operative time, and gland texture. These variables were used to develop model 1 (DFA1 alone) and model 2 (DFA1 + ΔDFA). Model 2 outperformed model 1 in predicting the risk of clinically relevant postoperative fistula. According to model 2 predictions, the risk of clinically relevant postoperative fistula increased with any rise in drain fluid amylase, regardless of whether the DFA1 was above or below 5,000 U/L. The risk of clinically relevant postoperative fistula significantly decreased with any drop in drain fluid amylase, with an odds reduction of approximately 50% corresponding with a 70% decrease in drain fluid amylase (P < .001). A risk calculator was developed using DFA1 and a secondary DFA value in conjunction with other clinical predictors for clinically relevant postoperative fistula. CONCLUSION: Clinically relevant postoperative fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy is more accurately predicted by DFA1 and ΔDFA versus DFA1 in isolation. We developed a novel risk calculator to provide an individualized approach to drain management after pancreaticoduodenectomy.

Healthcare-associated infections during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the modulating effect of centralized surveillance.

We analyzed efficacy of a centralized surveillance infection prevention (CSIP) program in a healthcare system on healthcare-associated infection (HAI) rates amid the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. HAI rates were variable in CSIP and non-CSIP facilities. Central-line-associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI), C. difficile infection (CSI), and surgical-site infection (SSI) rates were negatively correlated with COVID-19 intensity in CSIP facilities.

Increasing Quality and Frequency of Goals-of-Care Documentation in the Highest-Risk Surgical Candidates: One-Year Results of the Surgical Pause Program.

Patient values may be obscured when decisions are made under the circumstances of constrained time and limited counseling. The objective of this study was to determine if a multidisciplinary review aimed at ensuring goal-concordant treatment and perioperative risk assessment in high-risk orthopaedic trauma patients would increase the quality and frequency of goals-of-care documentation without increasing the rate of adverse events. Methods: We prospectively analyzed a longitudinal cohort of adult patients treated for traumatic orthopaedic injuries that were neither life- nor limb-threatening between January 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021. A rapid multidisciplinary review termed a "surgical pause" (SP) was available to those who were ≥80 years old, were nonambulatory or had minimal ambulation at baseline, and/or resided in a skilled nursing facility, as well as upon clinician request. Metrics analyzed include the proportion and quality of goals-of-care documentation, rate of return to the hospital, complications, length of stay, and mortality. Statistical analysis utilized the Kruskal-Wallis rank and Wilcoxon rank-sum tests for continuous variables and the likelihood-ratio chi-square test for categorical variables. Results: A total of 133 patients were either eligible for the SP or referred by a clinician. Compared with SP-eligible patients who did not undergo an SP, patients who underwent an SP more frequently had goals-of-care notes identified (92.4% versus 75.0%, p = 0.014) and recorded in the appropriate location (71.2% versus 27.5%, p < 0.001), and the notes were more often of high quality (77.3% versus 45.0%, p < 0.001). Mortality rates were nominally higher among SP patients, but these differences were not significant (10.6% versus 5.0%, 5.1% versus 0.0%, and 14.3% versus 7.9% for in-hospital, 30-day, and 90-day mortality, respectively; p > 0.08 for all). Conclusions: The pilot program indicated that an SP is a feasible and effective means of increasing the quality and frequency of goals-of-care documentation in high-risk operative candidates whose traumatic orthopaedic injuries are neither life- nor limb-threatening. This multidisciplinary program aims for goal-concordant treatment plans that minimize modifiable perioperative risks. Level of Evidence: Therapeutic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Development and implementation of a centralized surveillance infection prevention program in a multi-facility health system: A quality improvement project.

Objective: To develop, implement, and evaluate the effectiveness of a unique centralized surveillance infection prevention (CSIP) program. Design: Observational quality improvement project. Setting: An integrated academic healthcare system. Intervention: The CSIP program comprises senior infection preventionists who are responsible for healthcare-associated infection (HAI) surveillance and reporting, allowing local infection preventionists (LIPs) a greater portion of their time to non-surveillance patient safety activities. Four CSIP team members accrued HAI responsibilities at 8 facilities. Methods: We evaluated the effectiveness of the CSIP program using 4 measures: recovery of LIP time, efficiency of surveillance activities by LIPs and CSIP staff, surveys characterizing LIP perception of their effectiveness in HAI reduction, and nursing leaders' perception of LIP effectiveness. Results: The amount of time spent by LIP teams on HAI surveillance was highly variable, while CSIP time commitment and efficiency was steady. Post-CSIP implementation, 76.9% of LIPs agreed that they spend adequate time on inpatient units, compared to 15.4% pre-CSIP; LIPs also reported more time to allot to non-surveillance activities. Nursing leaders reported greater satisfaction with LIP involvement with HAI reduction practices. Conclusion: CSIP programs are a little-reported strategy to ease burden on LIPs with reallocation of HAI surveillance. The analyses presented here will aid health systems in anticipating the benefit of CSIP programs.

Evaluation of Adjuvant Chemotherapy Survival Outcomes Among Patients With Surgically Resected Pancreatic Carcinoma With Node-Negative Disease After Neoadjuvant Therapy.

Importance: Neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) is rarely associated with a complete histopathologic response in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) but results in downstaging of regional nodal disease. Such nodal downstaging after NAT may have implications for the use of additional adjuvant therapy (AT). Objectives: To examine the prognostic implications of AT in patients with node-negative (N0) disease after NAT and to identify factors associated with progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective review was conducted using data from 2 high-volume, tertiary care academic centers (University of Pittsburgh Medical Center and the Medical College of Wisconsin). Prospectively maintained pancreatic cancer databases at both institutes were searched to identify patients with localized PDAC treated with preoperative therapy and subsequent surgical resection between 2010 and 2019, with N0 disease on final histopathology. Exposures: Patients received NAT consisting of chemotherapy with or without concomitant neoadjuvant radiation (NART). For patients who received NART, chemotherapy regimens were gemcitabine or 5-fluoururacil based and included stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) or intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) after all intended chemotherapy and approximately 4 to 5 weeks before anticipated surgery. Adjuvant therapy consisted of gemcitabine-based therapy or FOLFIRINOX; when used, adjuvant radiation was commonly administered as either SBRT or IMRT. Main Outcomes and Measures: The association of AT with PFS and OS was evaluated in the overall cohort and in different subgroups. The interaction between AT and other clinicopathologic variables was examined on Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Results: In this cohort study, 430 consecutive patients were treated between 2010 and 2019. Patients had a mean (SD) age of 65.2 (9.4) years, and 220 (51.2%) were women. The predominant NAT was gemcitabine based (196 patients [45.6%]), with a median duration of 2.7 cycles (IQR, 1.5-3.4). Neoadjuvant radiation was administered to 279 patients (64.9%). Pancreatoduodenectomy was performed in 310 patients (72.1%), and 160 (37.2%) required concomitant vascular resection. The median lymph node yield was 26 (IQR, 19-34); perineural invasion (PNI), lymphovascular invasion (LVI), and residual positive margins (R1) were found in 254 (59.3%), 92 (22.0%), and 87 (21.1%) patients, respectively. The restricted mean OS was 5.2 years (95% CI, 4.8-5.7). On adjusted analysis, PNI, LVI, and poorly differentiated tumors were independently associated with worse PFS and OS in N0 disease after NAT, with hazard ratios (95% CIs) of 2.04 (1.43-2.92; P < .001) and 1.68 (1.14-2.48; P = .009), 1.47 (1.08-1.98; P = .01) and 1.54 (1.10-2.14; P = .01), and 1.90 (1.18-3.07; P = .008) and 1.98 (1.20-3.26; P = .008), respectively. Although AT was associated with prolonged survival in the overall cohort, the effect was reduced in patients who received NART and strengthened in patients with PNI (AT × PNI interaction: hazard ratio, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.32-0.97]; P = .04). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study suggest a survival benefit for AT in patients with N0 disease after NAT and surgical resection. This survival benefit may be most pronounced in patients with PNI.

Robotic Pancreaticoduodenectomy: Increased Adoption and Improved Outcomes: Is Laparoscopy Still Justified?

OBJECTIVE: To compare the rate of postoperative 30-day complications between laparoscopic pancreaticoduodenectomy (LPD) and robotic pancreaticoduodenectomy (RPD). BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggest that minimally invasive pancreaticoduodenectomy (MI-PD)-either LPD or RPD-is noninferior to open pancreaticoduodenectomy in terms of operative outcomes. However, a direct comparison of the two minimally invasive approaches has not been rigorously performed. METHODS: Patients who underwent MI-PD were abstracted from the 2014 to 2019 pancreas-targeted American College of Surgeons National Sample Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) dataset. Optimal outcome was defined as absence of postoperative mortality, serious complication, percutaneous drainage, reoperation, and prolonged length of stay (75th percentile, 11 days) with no readmission. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to compare optimal outcome of RPD and LPD. RESULTS: A total of 1540 MI-PDs were identified between 2014 and 2019, of which 885 (57%) were RPD and 655 (43%) were LPD. The rate of RPD cases/year significantly increased from 2.4% to 8.4% ( P =0.008) from 2014 to 2019, while LPD remained unchanged. Similarly, the rate of optimal outcome for RPD increased during the study period from 48.2% to 57.8% ( P <0.001) but significantly decreased for LPD (53.5% to 44.9%, P <0.001). During 2018-2019, RPD outcomes surpassed LPD for any complication [odds ratio (OR)=0.58, P =0.004], serious complications (OR=0.61, P =0.011), and optimal outcome (OR=1.78, P =0.001). CONCLUSIONS: RPD adoption increased compared with LPD and was associated with decreased overall complications, serious complications, and increased optimal outcome compared with LPD in 2018-2019.

Assessment of the effectiveness of ultraviolet-C disinfection on transmission of hospital-acquired pathogens from prior room occupants.

Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of ultraviolet-C (UV-C) disinfection as an adjunct to standard chlorine-based disinfectant terminal room cleaning in reducing transmission of hospital-acquired multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs) from a prior room occupant. Design: A retrospective cohort study was conducted to compare rates of MDRO transmission by UV-C status from January 1, 2016, through December 31, 2018. Setting: Acute-care, single-patient hospital rooms at 6 hospitals within an academic healthcare system in Pennsylvania. Methods: Transmission of hospital-acquired MDRO infection was assessed in patients subsequently assigned to a single-patient room of a source occupant with carriage of 1 or more MDROs on or during admission. Acquisition of 5 pathogens was compared between exposed patients in rooms with standard-of-care chlorine-based disinfectant terminal cleaning with or without adjunct UV-C disinfection. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the adjusted risk of pathogen transfer with adjunctive use of UV-C disinfection. Results: In total, 33,771 exposed patient admissions were evaluated; the source occupants carried 46,688 unique pathogens. Prior to the 33,771 patient admissions, 5,802 rooms (17.2%) were treated with adjunct UV-C disinfection. After adjustment for covariates, exposed patients in rooms treated with adjunct UV-C were at comparable risk of transfer of any pathogen (odds ratio, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.84-1.32; P = .64). Conclusion: Our analysis does not support the use of UV-C in addition to post-discharge cleaning with chlorine-based disinfectant to lower the risk of prior room occupant pathogen transfer.

Associations Between Implementation of the Caregiver Advise Record Enable (CARE) Act and Health Service Utilization for Older Adults with Diabetes: Retrospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The Caregiver Advise Record Enable (CARE) Act is a state level law that requires hospitals to identify and educate caregivers ("family members or friends") upon discharge. OBJECTIVE: This study examined the association between the implementation of the CARE Act in a Pennsylvania health system and health service utilization (ie, reducing hospital readmission, emergency department [ED] visits, and mortality) for older adults with diabetes. METHODS: The key elements of the CARE Act were implemented and applied to the patients discharged to home. The data between May and October 2017 were pulled from inpatient electronic health records. Likelihood-ratio chi-square tests and multivariate logistic regression models were used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: The sample consisted of 2591 older inpatients with diabetes with a mean age of 74.6 (SD 7.1) years. Of the 2591 patients, 46.1% (n=1194) were female, 86.9% (n=2251) were White, 97.4% (n=2523) had type 2 diabetes, and 69.5% (n=1801) identified a caregiver. Of the 1801 caregivers identified, 399 (22.2%) received discharge education and training. We compared the differences in health service utilization between pre- and postimplementation of the CARE Act; however, no significance was found. No significant differences were detected from the bivariate analyses in any outcomes between individuals who identified a caregiver and those who declined to identify a caregiver. After adjusting for risk factors (multivariate analysis), those who identified a caregiver (12.2%, 219/1801) was associated with higher rates of 30-day hospital readmission than those who declined to identify a caregiver (9.9%, 78/790; odds ratio [OR] 1.38, 95% CI 1.04-1.87; P=.02). Significantly lower rates were detected in 7-day readmission (P=.02), as well as 7-day (P=.03) and 30-day (P=.01) ED visits, among patients with diabetes whose identified caregiver received education and training than those whose identified caregiver did not receive education and training in the bivariate analyses. However, after adjusting for risk factors, no significance was found in 7-day readmission (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.27-1.05; P=.07), 7-day ED visit (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.38-1.03; P=.07), and 30-day ED visit (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.52-1.02; P=.07). No significant associations were found for other outcomes (ie, 30-day readmission and 7-day and 30-day mortality) in both the bivariate and multivariate analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found that the implementation of the CARE Act was associated with certain health service utilization. The identification of caregivers was associated with higher rates of 30-day hospital readmission in the multivariate analysis, whereas having identified caregivers who received discharge education was associated with lower rates of readmission and ED visit in the bivariate analysis.

Novel Calculator to Estimate the Risk of Clinically Relevant Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula Following Distal Pancreatectomy.

BACKGROUND: Drain management algorithms are based on studies that predict clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) using drain fluid amylase level on POD1 (DFA1). These studies are focused on pancreaticoduodenectomy which is inherently different than distal pancreatectomy. Moreover, the change of DFA between POD1 and POD3 (ΔDFA) is underutilized despite its importance in predicting CR-POPF. We sought to generate a calculator that estimates the risk of CR-POPF following distal pancreatectomy. METHODS: The 2014-2018 pancreas-targeted ACS-NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent elective distal pancreatectomy. Models to predict CR-POPF were constructed using DFA1 with/without ΔDFA. The fittest model was used to construct a calculator. RESULTS: Out of 12,042 distal pancreatectomies, 692 patients met the study's inclusion criteria. The risk of CR-POPF was 15.9% in the included cohort versus 14.8% in the excluded one (P = 0.421). The predictors of the CR-POPF were age, operative time, DFA1, and ΔDFA. Adding ΔDFA decreased the Akaike's information criterion of the model (507.7 vs 544.7)-indicating a significantly better model fit-and improved the cross-validated area under the curve from 0.731 to 0.791. An easy-to-use calculator was created for surgeons to estimate the risk of CR-POPF based on the abovementioned variables. A sensitivity/specificity table was created at various cutoffs to direct clinical decision-making with respect to early drain removal. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the importance of ΔDFA, in addition to DFA1, in predicting CR-POPF. The provided calculator will facilitate predicting CR-POPF and postoperative drain management following distal pancreatectomy.

The impact of frailty on mortality in non-surgical head and neck cancer treatment: Shifting the clinical paradigm.

OBJECTIVE: Compare survival of head and neck cancer (HNC) patients treated with surgical or non-surgical management according to frailty, quantify frailty with the Risk Analysis Index (RAI), a validated 14-item instrument. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Prospective cohort study of newly diagnosed HNC patients (≥18 years) who had frailty assessment from April 13, 2016 to September 30, 2016. Primary outcome was overall survival at 1- and 3-years. Cox proportional hazard models were utilized to examine mortality with predictor variables. Adjusted and unadjusted (Kaplan-Meier) survival curves stratified by either RAI scores or treatment modality were plotted. Kruskal-Wallis and likelihood ratio chi-square tests were used for comparing clinicodemographic variables. RESULTS: Of 165 patients, 54 (32.7%) were managed non-surgically, 49 (29.7%) were treated with definitive surgery only, and 62 (37.6%) were treated with multimodality (surgery + adjuvant) therapy. Among the full cohort and subgroup analysis of the frail/very frail (RAI ≥ 37), non-surgical patients had worse or similar 3-year survival than those treated with surgery +/- adjuvant therapy. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models demonstrate that frail patients treated non-surgically experienced worse survival than their counterparts treated with surgery (HR = 2.50, p = 0.015, 95% CI: 1.19, 5.23) or multimodality therapy (HR = 3.91, p < 0.001, 95% CI: 1.94-7.89). CONCLUSION: Across all levels of frailty, long term survival of HNC patients treated without surgery is either worse than or like those treated with surgery. These findings (1) challenge current practices of steering patients "too frail for surgery" towards non-surgical, "non-invasive" therapy, and (2) suggest equipoise warranting randomized trials to clarify treatment of frail patients.

Baseline Plasma Inflammatory Profile Is Associated With Response to Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy in Patients With Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma.

Despite its increased application in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), complete response to neoadjuvant therapy (NAT) is rare. Given the critical role of host immunity in regulating cancer, we sought to correlate baseline inflammatory profiles to significant response to NAT. PDAC patients receiving NAT were classified as responders (R) or nonresponders (NR) by carbohydrate antigen 19-9 response, pathologic tumor size, and lymph node status in the resected specimen. Baseline (treatment-naive) plasma was analyzed to determine levels of 27 inflammatory mediators. Logistic regression was used to correlate individual mediators with response. Network analysis and Pearson correlation maps were derived to determine baseline inflammatory mediator profiles. Forty patients (20R and 20NR) met study criteria. The R showed significantly higher overall survival (59.4 vs. 21.25 mo, P=0.002) and disease-free survival (50.97 vs. 10.60 mo, P=0.005), compared with NR. soluble interleukin-2 receptor alpha was a significant predictor of no response to NAT (P=0.045). Analysis of inflammatory profiles using the Pearson heat map analysis followed by network analysis depicted increased inflammatory network complexity in NR compared with R (1.69 vs. 1), signifying a more robust baseline inflammatory status of NR. A panel of inflammatory mediators identified by logistic regression and Fischer score analysis was used to create a potential decision tree to predict NAT response. We demonstrate that baseline inflammatory profiles are associated with response to NAT in PDAC, and that an upregulated inflammatory status is associated with a poor response to NAT. Further analysis into the role of inflammatory mediators as predictors of chemotherapy response is warranted.

SafeNET: Initial development and validation of a real-time tool for predicting mortality risk at the time of hospital transfer to a higher level of care.

BACKGROUND: Processes for transferring patients to higher acuity facilities lack a standardized approach to prognostication, increasing the risk for low value care that imposes significant burdens on patients and their families with unclear benefits. We sought to develop a rapid and feasible tool for predicting mortality using variables readily available at the time of hospital transfer. METHODS AND FINDINGS: All work was carried out at a single, large, multi-hospital integrated healthcare system. We used a retrospective cohort for model development consisting of patients aged 18 years or older transferred into the healthcare system from another hospital, hospice, skilled nursing or other healthcare facility with an admission priority of direct emergency admit. The cohort was randomly divided into training and test sets to develop first a 54-variable, and then a 14-variable gradient boosting model to predict the primary outcome of all cause in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included 30-day and 90-day mortality and transition to comfort measures only or hospice care. For model validation, we used a prospective cohort consisting of all patients transferred to a single, tertiary care hospital from one of the 3 referring hospitals, excluding patients transferred for myocardial infarction or maternal labor and delivery. Prospective validation was performed by using a web-based tool to calculate the risk of mortality at the time of transfer. Observed outcomes were compared to predicted outcomes to assess model performance. The development cohort included 20,985 patients with 1,937 (9.2%) in-hospital mortalities, 2,884 (13.7%) 30-day mortalities, and 3,899 (18.6%) 90-day mortalities. The 14-variable gradient boosting model effectively predicted in-hospital, 30-day and 90-day mortality (c = 0.903 [95% CI:0.891-0.916]), c = 0.877 [95% CI:0.864-0.890]), and c = 0.869 [95% CI:0.857-0.881], respectively). The tool was proven feasible and valid for bedside implementation in a prospective cohort of 679 sequentially transferred patients for whom the bedside nurse calculated a SafeNET score at the time of transfer, taking only 4-5 minutes per patient with discrimination consistent with the development sample for in-hospital, 30-day and 90-day mortality (c = 0.836 [95%CI: 0.751-0.921], 0.815 [95% CI: 0.730-0.900], and 0.794 [95% CI: 0.725-0.864], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The SafeNET algorithm is feasible and valid for real-time, bedside mortality risk prediction at the time of hospital transfer. Work is ongoing to build pathways triggered by this score that direct needed resources to the patients at greatest risk of poor outcomes.

Outcomes of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Versus Chemoradiation in Localized Pancreatic Cancer: A Case-Control Matched Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant therapy is increasingly used for patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). It is unknown whether neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy is more effective than chemotherapy (NCRT vs. NAC). We aim to compare pathological and survival outcomes of NCRT and NAC in patients with PDAC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Single-center analysis of PDAC patients treated with NCRT or NAC followed by resection between December 2008 and December 2018 was performed. Average treatment effect (ATE) was estimated after case-control matching using Mahalanobis distance nearest-neighbor matching. Inverse probability weighted estimates (IPWE)-based ATE was estimated for disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Among the 418 patients (mean age 66.8 years, 51% female) included in the study, 327 received NAC and 91 received NCRT. NCRT patients had higher rates of locally advanced disease, number of neoadjuvant chemotherapy cycles, more chemotherapy regimen crossover (gemcitabine and 5-FU based), and were more likely to undergo open surgical procedures and/or vascular resection (all p < 0.05). After matched analysis, NCRT was associated with a significant reduction in lymph node positive disease [ATE = (-)0.24, p = 0.007] and lymphovascular invasion [ATE = (-)0.20, p = 0.02]. While NCRT was associated with significantly improved DFS by 9.5 months (p = 0.006), it did not affect OS by IPWE-based ATE after adjusting for adjuvant therapy (ATE = 5.5 months; p = 0.32). CONCLUSION: Compared with NAC alone, NCRT is associated with improved pathologic surrogates and disease-free survival, but not overall survival in patients with PDAC.

Novel bypass risk predictive tool is superior to the 5-Factor Modified Frailty Index in predicting postoperative outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop risk predictive models of 30-day mortality, morbidity, and major adverse limb events (MALE) after bypass surgery for aortoiliac occlusive disease (AIOD) and to compare their performances with a 5-Factor Frailty Index. METHODS: The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program 2012-2017 Procedure Targeted Aortoiliac (Open) Participant Use Data Files were queried to identify all patients who had elective bypass for AIOD: femorofemoral bypass, aortofemoral bypass, and axillofemoral bypass (AXB). Outcomes assessed included mortality, major morbidity, and MALE within 30 days postoperatively. Major morbidity was defined as pneumonia, unplanned intubation, ventilator support for >48 hours, progressive or acute renal failure, cerebrovascular accident, cardiac arrest, or myocardial infarction. Demographics, comorbidities, procedure type, and laboratory values were considered for inclusion in the risk predictive models. Logistic regression models for mortality, major morbidity and MALE were developed. The discriminative ability of these models (C-indices) were compared with that of the 5-Factor Modified Frailty Index (mFI-5): a general frailty tool determined from diabetes, functional status, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, history of congestive heart failure, and hypertension. Calculators were derived using the most significant variables for each of the three risk predictive models. RESULTS: A total of 2612 cases (mean age 65.0, 60% male) were identified, of which 1149 (44.0%) were femorofemoral bypass, 1138 (43.6%) were aortofemoral bypass, and 325 (12.4%) were axillofemoral bypass. Overall, the rates of mortality, major morbidity, and MALE were 2.0%, 8.5%, and 4.9%, respectively. Twenty preoperative risk factors were considered for incorporation in the risk tools. Apart from procedure type, age was the most statistically significant predictor of both mortality and morbidity. Preoperative anemia and critical limb ischemia were the most significant predictors of MALE. All three constructed models demonstrated significantly better discriminative ability (P < .001) on the outcomes of interest as compared with the mFI-5. CONCLUSIONS: Our models outperformed the mFI-5 in predicting 30-day mortality, major morbidity, and adverse limb events in patients with AIOD undergoing elective bypass surgery. Calculators were created using the most statistically significant variables to help calculate individual patient's postoperative risks and allow for better informed consent and risk-adjusted comparison of provider outcomes.

Association of Mentorship and a Formal Robotic Proficiency Skills Curriculum With Subsequent Generations' Learning Curve and Safety for Robotic Pancreaticoduodenectomy.

Importance: Learning curves are unavoidable for practicing surgeons when adopting new technologies. However, patient outcomes are worse in the early stages of a learning curve vs after mastery. Therefore, it is critical to find a way to decrease these learning curves without compromising patient safety. Objective: To evaluate the association of mentorship and a formal proficiency-based skills curriculum with the learning curves of 3 generations of surgeons and to determine the association with increased patient safety. Design, Setting, and Participants: All consecutive robotic pancreaticoduodenectomies (RPDs) performed at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center between 2008 and 2017 were included in this study. Surgeons were split into generations based on their access to mentorship and a proficiency-based skills curriculum. The generations are (1) no mentorship or curriculum, (2) mentorship but no curriculum, and (3) mentorship and curriculum. Univariable and multivariable analyses were used to create risk-adjusted learning curves by surgical generation and to analyze factors associated with operating room time, complications, and fellows completing the full resection. The participants include surgical oncology attending surgeons and fellows who participated in an RPD at University of Pittsburgh Medical Center between 2008 and 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was operating room time (ORT). Secondary outcomes were postoperative pancreatic fistula and Clavien-Dindo classification higher than grade 2. Results: We identified 514 RPDs completed between 2008 and 2017, of which 258 (50.2%) were completed by first-generation surgeons, 151 (29.3%) were completed by the second generation, and 82 (15.9%) were completed by the third generation. There was no statistically significant difference between groups with respect to age (66.3-67.3 years; P = .52) or female sex (n = 34 [41.5%] vs n = 121 [46.9%]; P = .60). There was a significant decrease in ORT (P < .001), from 450.8 minutes for the first-generation surgeons to 348.6 minutes for the third generation. Additionally, across generations, Clavien-Dindo classification higher than grade 2 (n = 74 [28.7%] vs n = 30 [9.9%] vs n = 12 [14.6%]; P = .01), conversion rates (n = 18 [7.0%] vs n = 7 [4.6%] vs n = 0; P = .006), and estimated blood loss (426 mL vs 288.6 mL vs 254.7 mL; P < .001) decreased significantly with subsequent generations. There were no significant differences in postoperative pancreatic fistula. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, ORT, conversion rates, and estimated blood loss decreased across generations without a concomitant rise in adverse patient outcomes. These findings suggest that a proficiency-based curriculum coupled with mentorship allows for the safe introduction of less experienced surgeons to RPD without compromising patient safety.

Validation of the Risk Analysis Index for Evaluating Frailty in Ambulatory Patients.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is a marker of dependency, disability, hospitalization, and mortality in community-dwelling older adults. However, existing tools for measuring frailty are too cumbersome for rapid point-of-care assessment. The Risk Analysis Index (RAI) of frailty is validated in surgical populations, but its performance outside surgical populations is unknown. OBJECTIVE: Validate the RAI in ambulatory patients. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Observational cohort study of outpatient surgical clinics within the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center Healthcare System between July 1, 2016, and December 31, 2016. Frailty was assessed using the RAI. Current Procedural Terminology codes following RAI assessment identified patients with and without minor office-based procedures (eg, joint injection, laryngoscopy). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: All-cause 1-year mortality, assessed by stratified Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Of 28,059 patients, 13,861 were matched to a minor, office-based procedure and 14,198 did not undergo any procedure. The mean (SD) age was 56.7 (17.2) years; women constituted 15,797 (56.3%) of the cohort. Median time (interquartile range 25th-75th percentile) to measure RAI was 30 (22-47) seconds. Mortality among the frail was two to five times that of patients with normal RAI scores. For example, the hazard ratio for frail ambulatory patients without a minor procedure was 3.69 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.51-5.41), corresponding to 30-, 180-, and 365-day mortality rates of 2.9%, 11.2%, and 17.4%, respectively, compared to 0.3%, 2.3%, and 4.0% among patients with normal RAI scores. Discrimination of mortality (overall, and censored at 30, 180, and 365 days) was excellent, ranging from c = 0.838 (95% CI = 0.773-0.902) for 30-day mortality after minor procedures to c = 0.909 (95% CI = 0.855-0.964) without a procedure. CONCLUSION: RAI is a valid, easily administered tool for point-of-care frailty assessment in ambulatory populations that may help clinicians and patients make better informed decisions about care choices-especially among patients considered high risk with a potentially limited life span. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:1818-1824, 2020.