Signage Interventions for Stair Climbing at Work: More than 700,000 Reasons for Caution.

Increased stair climbing reduces cardiovascular disease risk. While signage interventions for workplace stair climbing offer a low-cost tool to improve population health, inconsistent effects of intervention occur. Pedestrian movement within the built environment has major effects on stair use, independent of any health initiative. This paper used pooled data from UK and Spanish workplaces to test the effects of signage interventions when pedestrian movement was controlled for in analyses. Automated counters measured stair and elevator usage at the ground floor throughout the working day. Signage interventions employed previously successful campaigns. In the UK, minute-by-minute stair/elevator choices measured effects of momentary pedestrian traffic at the choice-point (n = 426,605). In Spain, aggregated pedestrian traffic every 30 min measured effects for 'busyness' of the building (n = 293,300). Intervention effects on stair descent (3 of 4 analyses) were more frequent than effects on stair climbing, the behavior with proven health benefits (1 of 4 analyses). Any intervention effects were of small magnitude relative to the influence of pedestrian movement. Failure to control for pedestrian movement compromises any estimate for signage effectiveness. These pooled data provide limited evidence that signage interventions for stair climbing at work will enhance population health.

Lack of attentional retraining effects in cigarette smokers attempting cessation: a proof of concept double-blind randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies have shown that attentional bias for smoking-related cues is associated with increased craving and relapse. Laboratory experiments have shown that manipulating attentional bias may change craving. Interventions to reduce attentional bias could reduce relapse in smokers seeking to quit. We report a clinical trial of attentional retraining in treatment-seeking smokers. METHODS: This was a double-blind randomised controlled trial that took place in UK smoking cessation clinics. Smokers interested in quitting were randomised to five weekly sessions of attentional retraining (N=60) or placebo training (N = 58) using a modified visual probe task from one week prior to quit day. Both groups received 21 mg nicotine patches (from quit day onwards) and behavioural support. Primary outcomes included change in attentional bias reaction times four weeks after quit day on the visual probe task and craving measured weekly using the Mood and Physical Symptoms Scale. Secondary outcomes were changes in withdrawal symptoms, time to first lapse and prolonged abstinence. RESULTS: No attentional bias towards smoking cues was found in the sample at baseline (mean difference = 3 ms, 95% CI = -2, 9). Post-training bias was not significantly lower in the retraining group compared with the placebo group (mean difference = -9 ms, 95% CI = -20, 2). There was no difference between groups in change in craving (p = 0.89) and prolonged abstinence at four weeks (risk ratio = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.70, 1.43). CONCLUSIONS: Taken with one other trial, there appears to be no effect from clinic-based attentional retraining using the visual probe task. Attentional retraining conducted out of clinic may prove more effective. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: UK Clinical Trials ISRCTN 54375405.

The effect of walking on risk factors for cardiovascular disease: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised control trials.

OBJECTIVE: To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised control trials that examined the effect of walking on risk factors for cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Four electronic databases and reference lists were searched (Jan 1971-June 2012). Two authors identified randomised control trials of interventions ≥ 4 weeks in duration that included at least one group with walking as the only treatment and a no-exercise comparator group. Participants were inactive at baseline. Pooled results were reported as weighted mean treatment effects and 95% confidence intervals using a random effects model. RESULTS: 32 articles reported the effects of walking interventions on cardiovascular disease risk factors. Walking increased aerobic capacity (3.04 mL/kg/min, 95% CI 2.48 to 3.60) and reduced systolic (-3.58 mm Hg, 95% CI -5.19 to -1.97) and diastolic (-1.54 mm Hg, 95% CI -2.83 to -0.26) blood pressure, waist circumference (-1.51 cm, 95% CI -2.34 to -0.68), weight (-1.37 kg, 95% CI -1.75 to -1.00), percentage body fat (-1.22%, 95% CI -1.70 to -0.73) and body mass index (-0.53 kg/m(2), 95% CI -0.72 to -0.35) but failed to alter blood lipids. CONCLUSIONS: Walking interventions improve many risk factors for cardiovascular disease. This underscores the central role of walking in physical activity for health promotion.

Predicting out-of-office blood pressure level using repeated measurements in the clinic: an observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Identification of people with lower (white-coat effect) or higher (masked effect) blood pressure at home compared to the clinic usually requires ambulatory or home monitoring. This study assessed whether changes in SBP with repeated measurement at a single clinic predict subsequent differences between clinic and home measurements. METHODS: This study used an observational cohort design and included 220 individuals aged 35-84 years, receiving treatment for hypertension, but whose SBP was not controlled. The characteristics of change in SBP over six clinic readings were defined as the SBP drop, the slope and the quadratic coefficient using polynomial regression modelling. The predictive abilities of these characteristics for lower or higher home SBP readings were investigated with logistic regression and repeated operating characteristic analysis. RESULTS: The single clinic SBP drop was predictive of the white-coat effect with a sensitivity of 90%, specificity of 50%, positive predictive value of 56% and negative predictive value of 88%. Predictive values for the masked effect and those of the slope and quadratic coefficient were slightly lower, but when the slope and quadratic variables were combined, the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values for the masked effect were improved to 91, 48, 24 and 97%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Characteristics obtainable from multiple SBP measurements in a single clinic in patients with treated hypertension appear to reasonably predict those unlikely to have a large white-coat or masked effect, potentially allowing better targeting of out-of-office monitoring in routine clinical practice.

Maternal plasma and amniotic fluid cytokines in monochorionic, diamniotic twin pregnancies complicated by twin-to-twin transfusion syndrome.

INTRODUCTION: Cytokine imbalance has been implicated in placental-related pathologies, i.e. recurrent miscarriage and pre-eclampsia. Such conditions are more prevalent in multiple pregnancies. Twin-to-twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS) is associated with asymmetric placental blood flow and intra-cardiac pressures. We hypothesised that cytokine expression may be aberrant in this condition and that fetoscopic laser ablation (FLA) may cause local cytokine release. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A prospective cohort of monochorionic, diamniotic twins with TTTS (n = 23) was studied. Circulating T helper cell type 1 (TH1)/TH2 maternal cytokines and cytokine-related and angiogenic factors were measured in plasma and amniotic fluid before and after FLA by human FASTQuant or ELISA. Basal comparisons were made with uncomplicated monochorionic and dichorionic (DC) twins. RESULTS: Median maternal plasma platelet-derived growth factor-BB was highest in uncomplicated DC twins (p = 0.049), whereas tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases (TIMP)-1 was highest in TTTS twins (p = 0.003). In TTTS amniotic fluid, interleukin (IL)-6, IL-1ß, tumour necrosis factor-α, IL-10, IL-4, IL-8, interferon-γ, TIMP-1 and intercellular adhesion molecule-1 were significantly higher than maternal plasma concentrations. There were no significant differences in plasma or amniotic fluid cytokines after FLA, with the exception of amniotic fluid keratinocyte growth factor, which was significantly reduced. DISCUSSION: TTTS is associated with minimal changes in cytokine levels when compared to uncomplicated twins, although the majority of cytokine levels were higher in amniotic fluid than maternal blood. It does not appear that FLA evokes a significant change in cytokines.

Telemonitoring and self-management in the control of hypertension (TASMINH2): a cost-effectiveness analysis.

AIMS: Self-monitoring and self-titration of antihypertensives (self-management) is a novel intervention which improves blood pressure control. However, little evidence exists regarding the cost-effectiveness of self-monitoring of blood pressure in general and self-management in particular. This study aimed to evaluate whether self-management of hypertension was cost-effective. DESIGN AND METHODS: A cohort Markov model-based probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken extrapolating to up to 35 years from cost and outcome data collected from the telemonitoring and self-management in hypertension trial (TASMINH2). Self-management of hypertension was compared with usual care in terms of lifetime costs, quality adjusted life years and cost-effectiveness using a UK Health Service perspective. Sensitivity analyses examined the effect of different time horizons and reduced effectiveness over time from self-management. RESULTS: In the long-term, when compared with usual care, self-management was more effective by 0.24 and 0.12 quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained per patient for men and women, respectively. The resultant incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for self-management was £1624 per QALY for men and £4923 per QALY for women. There was at least a 99% chance of the intervention being cost-effective for both sexes at a willingness to pay threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained. These results were robust to sensitivity analyses around the assumptions made, provided that the effects of self-management lasted at least two years for men and five years for women. CONCLUSION: Self-monitoring with self-titration of antihypertensives and telemonitoring of blood pressure measurements not only reduces blood pressure, compared with usual care, but also represents a cost-effective use of health care resources.

Effects of nutritional supplementation during pregnancy on early adult disease risk: follow up of offspring of participants in a randomised controlled trial investigating effects of supplementation on infant birth weight.

BACKGROUND: Observational evidence suggests that improving fetal growth may improve adult health. Experimental evidence from nutritional supplementation trials undertaken amongst pregnant women in the less developed world does not show strong or consistent effects on adult disease risk and no trials from the more developed world have previously been reported. OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that nutritional supplementation during pregnancy influences offspring disease risk in adulthood. DESIGN: Clinical assessment of a range of established diseases risk markers in young adult offspring of 283 South Asian mothers who participated in two trials of nutritional supplementation during pregnancy (protein/energy/vitamins; energy/vitamins or vitamins only) at Sorrento Maternity Hospital in Birmingham UK either unselected or selected on the basis of nutritional status. RESULTS: 236 (83%) offspring were traced and 118 (50%) of these were assessed in clinic. Protein/energy/vitamins supplementation amongst undernourished mothers was associated with increased infant birthweight. Nutritional supplementation showed no strong association with any one of a comprehensive range of markers of adult disease risk and no consistent pattern of association with risk across markers in offspring of either unselected or undernourished mothers. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence that nutritional supplements given to pregnant women are an important influence on adult disease risk however our study lacked power to estimate small effects. Our findings do not provide support for a policy of nutritional supplementation for pregnant women as an effective means to improve adult health in more developed societies.

Attentional bias retraining in cigarette smokers attempting smoking cessation (ARTS): study protocol for a double blind randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Smokers attend preferentially to cigarettes and other smoking-related cues in the environment, in what is known as an attentional bias. There is evidence that attentional bias may contribute to craving and failure to stop smoking. Attentional retraining procedures have been used in laboratory studies to train smokers to reduce attentional bias, although these procedures have not been applied in smoking cessation programmes. This trial will examine the efficacy of multiple sessions of attentional retraining on attentional bias, craving, and abstinence in smokers attempting cessation. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a double-blind randomised controlled trial. Adult smokers attending a 7-session weekly stop smoking clinic will be randomised to either a modified visual probe task with attentional retraining or placebo training. Training will start 1 week prior to quit day and be given weekly for 5 sessions. Both groups will receive 21 mg transdermal nicotine patches for 8-12 weeks and withdrawal-orientated behavioural support for 7 sessions. Primary outcome measures are the change in attentional bias reaction time and urge to smoke on the Mood and Physical Symptoms Scale at 4 weeks post-quit. Secondary outcome measures include differences in withdrawal, time to first lapse and prolonged abstinence at 4 weeks post-quit, which will be biochemically validated at each clinic visit. Follow-up will take place at 8 weeks, 3 months and 6 months post-quit. DISCUSSION: This is the first randomised controlled trial of attentional retraining in smokers attempting cessation. This trial could provide proof of principle for a treatment aimed at a fundamental cause of addiction. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials: ISRCTN54375405.

Assessing the predictive value of HIV indicator conditions in general practice: a case-control study using the THIN database.

BACKGROUND: UK HIV guidelines identify 37 clinical indicator conditions for adult HIV infection that should prompt an HIV test. However, few data currently exist to show their predictive value in identifying undiagnosed HIV. AIM: To identify symptoms and clinical diagnoses associated with HIV infection and assess their relative importance in identifying HIV cases, using data from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) general practice database. DESIGN AND SETTING: A case-control study in primary care. METHOD: Cases (HIV-positive patients) were matched to controls (not known to have HIV). Data from 939 cases and 2576 controls were included (n = 3515). Statistical analysis assessed the incidence of the 37 clinical conditions in cases and controls, and their predictive value in indicating HIV infection, and derived odds ratios (ORs) for each indicator condition. RESULTS: Twelve indicator conditions were significantly associated with HIV infection; 74.2% of HIV cases (n = 697) presented with none of the HIV indicator conditions prior to diagnosis. The conditions most strongly associated with HIV infection were bacterial pneumonia (OR = 47.7; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.6 to 404.2) and oral candidiasis (OR = 29.4; 95% CI = 6.9 to 125.5). The signs and symptoms most associated with HIV were weight loss (OR = 13.4; 95% CI = 5.0 to 36.0), pyrexia of unknown origin (OR = 7.2; 95% CI = 2.8 to 18.7), and diarrhoea (one or two consultations). CONCLUSION: This is the first study to quantify the predictive value of clinical diagnoses related to HIV infection in primary care. In identifying the conditions most strongly associated with HIV, this study could aid GPs in offering targeted HIV testing to those at highest risk.

Patient self-monitoring of blood pressure and self-titration of medication in primary care: the TASMINH2 trial qualitative study of health professionals' experiences.

BACKGROUND: Self-monitoring with self-titration of antihypertensives leads to reduced blood pressure. Patients are keen on self-monitoring but little is known about healthcare professional views. AIM: To explore health professionals' views and experiences of patient self-management, particularly with respect to future implementation into routine care. DESIGN AND SETTING: Qualitative study embedded within a randomised controlled trial of healthcare professionals participating in the TASMINH2 trial of patient self-monitoring with self-titration of antihypertensives from 24 West Midlands general practices. METHOD: Taped and transcribed semi-structured interviews with 13 GPs, two practice nurses and one healthcare assistant. Constant comparative method of analysis. RESULTS: Primary care professionals were positive about self-monitoring, but procedures for ensuring patients measured blood pressure correctly were haphazard. GPs interpreted home readings variably, with many not making adjustment for lower home blood pressure. Interviewees were satisfied with patient training and arrangements for blood pressure monitoring and self-titration of medication during the trial, but less sure about future implementation into routine care. There was evidence of a need for training of both patients and professionals for successful integration of self-management. CONCLUSION: Health professionals wanted more patient involvement in hypertension care but needed a framework to work within. Consideration of how to train patients to measure blood pressure and how home readings become part of their care is required before self-monitoring and self-titration can be implemented widely. As home monitoring becomes more widespread, the development of patient self-management, including self-titration of medication, should follow but this may take time to achieve.

Exercise to preserve beta cell function in recent-onset type 1 diabetes mellitus (EXTOD)--a study protocol for a pilot randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Exercise has a beta cell preserving effect in patients with type 2 diabetes. This benefit of exercise has not been examined in type 1 diabetes. Significant beta cell function is present at the time of diagnosis of type 1 diabetes and therefore studies of beta cell preservation are ideally conducted immediately after diagnosis.Many of the variables required to design and power such a study are currently unknown. The aim of EXTOD is to obtain the information required to design a formal study of exercise and beta cell preservation in newly diagnosed patients with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Barriers to exercise will initially be assessed in a qualitative study of newly diagnosed patients. Then, sixty newly diagnosed adult type 1 diabetes patients will be randomized to either conventional treatment or exercise, stratified on beta cell function and fitness. The exercise group will be encouraged to increase their level of activity to a minimum of 150 minutes of moderate to vigorous intensity exercise per week, aiming for 240 minutes per week of exercise for 12 months. Beta cell function will be measured by meal-stimulated C peptide. Primary outcomes are recruitment, adherence to exercise, loss to follow-up, and exercise levels in the non-intervention arm (contamination). The secondary outcome of the study is rate of loss of beta cell function. DISCUSSION: The outcomes of the EXTOD study will help define the barriers, uptake and benefits of exercise in adults newly diagnosed with type 1 diabetes. This information will enable design of a formal study to assess the effect of exercise on beta cell preservation in newly diagnosed patients with type 1 diabetes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current controlled trials ISRCTN91388505.

Inter-arm blood pressure differences compared with ambulatory monitoring: a manifestation of the 'white-coat' effect?

BACKGROUND: Inter-arm difference in blood pressure of >10 mmHg is associated with peripheral vascular disease, but it is unclear how much of the difference in sequential right and left arm blood pressure measurements might be due to a 'white-coat' effect. AIM: To use ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) to better understand the clinical significance of inter-arm differences in blood pressure. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective study in a teaching hospital in Birmingham. METHOD: Anonymised clinical data collected from 784 patients attending a single hospital-based hypertension clinic were retrospectively analysed. Each participant had blood pressure measured sequentially in both arms, followed by ABPM over the subsequent 24 hours. RESULT: Data were available for 710 (91%) patients, of whom 39.3% (279) had a blood pressure difference of 10 mmHg or more between each arm. Compared to daytime systolic ABPM, the difference was 25.1 mmHg using the arm with the highest reading, but only 15.5 mmHg if the lower reading was taken (mean difference 9.6 mmHg (95% confidence interval [CI] = 9.0 mmHg to 10.3 mmHg)). However, differences between mean right (20.7 mmHg) or left (19.9 mmHg) arm blood pressure and daytime systolic ABPM were very similar. CONCLUSION: Compared with ABPM, use of the higher of the left and right arm readings measured sequentially appears to overestimate true mean blood pressure. As there is no significant difference in the extent of disparity with ABPM by left or right arm, this is unlikely to be due to arm dominance and may be due to the 'white-coat' effect reducing blood pressure on repeated measurement. Where a large inter-arm blood pressure difference is detected with sequential measurement, healthcare professionals should re-measure the blood pressure in the original arm.

An international longitudinal registry of patients with atrial fibrillation at risk of stroke (GARFIELD): the UK protocol.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an independent risk factor for stroke and a significant predictor of mortality. Evidence-based guidelines for stroke prevention in AF recommend antithrombotic therapy corresponding to the risk of stroke. In practice, many patients with AF do not receive the appropriate antithrombotic therapy and are left either unprotected or inadequately protected against stroke. The purpose of the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD (GARFIELD) is to determine the real-life management and outcomes of patients newly diagnosed with non-valvular AF. METHODS/DESIGN: GARFIELD is an observational, international registry of newly diagnosed AF patients with at least one additional investigator-defined risk factor for stroke. The aim is to enrol 55,000 patients at more than 1000 centres in 50 countries worldwide. Enrolment will take place in five independent, sequential, prospective cohorts; the first cohort includes a retrospective validation cohort. Each cohort will be followed up for 2 years. The UK stands to be a significant contributor to GARFIELD, aiming to enrol 4,582 patients, and reflecting the care environment in which patients with AF are managed. The UK protocol will also focus on better understanding the validity of the two main stroke risk scores (CHADS2 and CHA2DS2VASC) and the HAS-BLED bleeding risk score, in the context of a diverse patient population. DISCUSSION: The GARFIELD registry will describe how therapeutic strategies, patient care, and clinical outcomes evolve over time. This study will provide UK-specific comprehensive data that will allow a range of evaluations both at a national level and in relation to global data and contribute to a better understanding of AF management in the UK. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT01090362.

A randomised controlled trial of a probiotic 'functional food' in the management of irritable bowel syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS) is a common condition characterised by pain, distension and altered bowel habit. Evidence suggests functional foods containing probiotics improve gastrointestinal transit, however, data are limited by short follow-up periods and evaluation in selected populations. METHODS: A multi-centre, randomized, double blind, controlled trial to evaluate the effect of a probiotic vs non-probiotic dairy product on symptoms in IBS with a constipation element (IBS-Constipation or IBS-Mixed profile). Set in 13 general practices within central England. Individuals meeting the ROME III criteria for IBS, aged 18-65 completed a pre-study diary. Eligible individuals were randomized to consume dairy 'yoghurt' products which either did or did not contain active probiotics twice daily and to complete a daily diary. Primary outcome was subjective global assessment of symptom relief at week 4. Other outcomes comprised, IBS symptom scores, pain, bloating and flatulence levels, stool frequency, stool consistency, ease of bowel movement and quality of life. RESULTS: 179 were randomized (91 active, 88 placebo). 76 (43 active, 33 placebo) completed the study. No significant between group differences existed at 4 weeks (57% active vs 53% placebo, reported adequate relief (p = 0.71)). By week 8, 46% active vs 68% placebo reported adequate relief (p = 0.03). This was sustained at week 12. CONCLUSIONS: Significant improvements were reported for most outcomes in all trial participants but improvement did not differ by group. This trial does not provide evidence for effectiveness of a probiotic in IBS, in variance with a body of published literature and review conclusions. Differential drop out may however cloud interpretation of data. UK TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN78863629.

Trial Protocol: a randomised controlled trial of extended anticoagulation treatment versus routine anticoagulation treatment for the prevention of recurrent VTE and post thrombotic syndrome in patients being treated for a first episode of unprovoked VTE (The ExACT Study).

BACKGROUND: Venous thromboembolism comprising pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis is a common condition with an incidence of approximately 1 per 1,000 per annum causing both mortality and serious morbidity. The principal aim of treatment of a venous thromboembolism with heparin and warfarin is to prevent extension or recurrence of clot. However, the recurrence rate following a deep vein thrombosis remains approximately 10% per annum following treatment cessation irrespective of the duration of anticoagulation therapy. Patients with raised D-dimer levels after discontinuing oral anticoagulation treatment have also been shown to be at high risk of recurrence.Post thrombotic syndrome is a complication of a deep vein thrombosis which can lead to chronic venous insufficiency and ulceration. It has a cumulative incidence after 2 years of around 25% and it has been suggested that extended oral anticoagulation should be investigated as a possible preventative measure. METHODS/DESIGN: Patients with a first idiopathic venous thromboembolism will be recruited through anticoagulation clinics and randomly allocated to either continuing or discontinuing warfarin treatment for a further 2 years and followed up on a six monthly basis. At each visit D-dimer levels will be measured using a Roche Cobas h 232 POC device. In addition a venous sample will be taken for laboratory D-dimer analysis at the end of the study. Patients will be examined for signs and symptoms of PTS using the Villalta scale and complete VEINES and EQ5D quality of life questionnaires. DISCUSSION: The primary aim of the study is to investigate whether extending oral anticoagulation treatment (prior to discontinuing treatment) beyond 3-6 months for patients with a first unprovoked proximal deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism prevents recurrence. The study will also determine the role of extending anticoagulation for patients with elevated D-dimer levels prior to discontinuing treatment and identify the potential of D-dimer point of care testing for identification of high risk patients within a primary care setting. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN73819751.

The relationship between serum TSH and free T4 in older people.

The frequency distribution of serum thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) shows a skewed pattern that may change with age. The set point of the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis for an individual is thought to be genetically determined and has been described as a log-linear relationship of serum TSH to free thyroxine (T4); however, the validity of this hypothesis has yet to be established in older people. The aim of the study was to describe the relationship between serum TSH and free T4 in older people and define factors influencing this relationship. We conducted a cross-sectional, observational study of thyroid function in a community population of older subjects over 65 years of age. The relationship between serum TSH and free T4 was not linear as previously described, but is best described as a fourth-order polynomial. Both gender and smoking status affected the relationship. This suggests that more complex modelling is required when investigating the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis.

Which is more useful in predicting hospital mortality--dichotomised blood test results or actual test values? A retrospective study in two hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Routine blood tests are an integral part of clinical medicine and in interpreting blood test results clinicians have two broad options. (1) Dichotomise the blood tests into normal/abnormal or (2) use the actual values and overlook the reference values. We refer to these as the "binary" and the "non-binary" strategy respectively. We investigate which strategy is better at predicting the risk of death in hospital based on seven routinely undertaken blood tests (albumin, creatinine, haemoglobin, potassium, sodium, urea, and white blood cell count) using tree models to implement the two strategies. METHODOLOGY: A retrospective database study of emergency admissions to an acute hospital during April 2009 to March 2010, involving 10,050 emergency admissions with routine blood tests undertaken within 24 hours of admission. We compared the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve for predicting in-hospital mortality using the binary and non-binary strategy. RESULTS: The mortality rate was 6.98% (701/10050). The mean predicted risk of death in those who died was significantly (p-value <0.0001) lower using the binary strategy (risk = 0.181 95%CI: 0.193 to 0.210) versus the non-binary strategy (risk = 0.222 95%CI: 0.194 to 0.251), representing a risk difference of 28.74 deaths in the deceased patients (n = 701). The binary strategy had a significantly (p-value <0.0001) lower area under the ROC curve of 0.832 (95% CI: 0.819 to 0.845) versus the non-binary strategy (0.853 95% CI: 0.840 to 0.867). Similar results were obtained using data from another hospital. CONCLUSIONS: Dichotomising routine blood test results is less accurate in predicting in-hospital mortality than using actual test values because it underestimates the risk of death in patients who died. Further research into the use of actual blood test values in clinical decision making is required especially as the infrastructure to implement this potentially promising strategy already exists in most hospitals.

Development and initial validation of a simple clinical decision tool to predict the presence of heart failure in primary care: the MICE (Male, Infarction, Crepitations, Edema) rule.

AIMS: Diagnosis of heart failure in primary care is often inaccurate, and access to and use of echocardiography is suboptimal. This study aimed to develop and provisionally validate a clinical prediction rule to optimize referral for echocardiography of people identified in primary care with suspected heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: A systematic review identified studies of diagnosis of heart failure set in primary care. The individual patient data for five of these studies were obtained. Logistic regression models to predict heart failure were developed on one of the data sets and validated on the others using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and goodness-of-fit calibration plots. A model based upon four simple clinical features (Male, history of myocardial Infarction, Crepitations, Edema: MICE) and natriuretic peptide had good validity when applied to other data sets, with AUROCs between 0.84 and 0.93, and reasonable calibration. The rule performed well across the data sets, with sensitivity between 81% and 96% and specificity between 57% and 74%. CONCLUSIONS: A simple clinical rule based upon gender, history of myocardial infarction, presence of ankle oedema, and presence of basal lung crepitations can discriminate between people with suspected heart failure who should be referred straight for echocardiography and people for whom referral should depend upon the result of a natriuretic peptide test. Prospective validation and an implementation evaluation of the rule is now warranted.