Choreographing a good death: Carers' experiences and practices of enacting assisted dying.

The proliferation of assisted dying legislative reforms globally is a significant change in the social and medico-legal landscape of end-of-life care. Understanding the impacts of these legislative reforms on family members who care for a dying person is vital, yet under-theorised in research. In this article, drawing on semi-structured interviews with 42 carers for a person who has sought assisted dying in Australia, and extending ideas of ontological choreography we explore the new and complex choreographies enacted by carers in their endeavour to arrange a 'good death' for the dying person. We find that desires to fulfil the dying person's wishes are often accompanied by normative pressures, affective tensions and complexities in bereavement. Enacting assisted dying requires carers to perform a repertoire of highly-staged practices. Yet, institutional obstacles and normative cultural scripts of dying can constrain carer assisted dying practices. Understanding the nuances of carers' experiences and how they navigate this new end-of-life landscape, we argue, provides critical insights about how assisted dying legislation is producing new cultural touchpoints for caring at the end of life. Moreover, we show how emerging cultural scripts of assisted dying are impacting in the lives of these carers.

COSMIC: a curated database of somatic variants and clinical data for cancer.

The Catalogue Of Somatic Mutations In Cancer (COSMIC), https://cancer.sanger.ac.uk/cosmic, is an expert-curated knowledgebase providing data on somatic variants in cancer, supported by a comprehensive suite of tools for interpreting genomic data, discerning the impact of somatic alterations on disease, and facilitating translational research. The catalogue is accessed and used by thousands of cancer researchers and clinicians daily, allowing them to quickly access information from an immense pool of data curated from over 29 thousand scientific publications and large studies. Within the last 4 years, COSMIC has substantially expanded its utility by adding new resources: the Mutational Signatures catalogue, the Cancer Mutation Census, and Actionability. To improve data accessibility and interoperability, somatic variants have received stable genomic identifiers that are associated with their genomic coordinates in GRCh37 and GRCh38, and new export files with reduced data redundancy have been made available for download.

Associations of postoperative delirium with activities of daily living in older people after major surgery: A prospective cohort study.

AIMS: To assess the association of postoperative delirium developed in the post-anaesthetic care unit (PACU) with older patients' ability to perform activities of daily living (ADL) during the first five postoperative days. BACKGROUND: Previous studies have focused on the association between postoperative delirium and long-term function decline, however the association between postoperative delirium and the ability to perform ADL, particularly in the immediate postoperative period, needs further investigation. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study. METHODS: A total of 271 older patients who underwent elective or emergency surgery at a tertiary care hospital in Victoria, Australia, participated in the study. Data were collected between July 2021 and December 2021. Delirium was assessed using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th Edition (DSM-5). The Katz Index of Independence in Activities of Daily Living (KATZ ADL) scale was used to measure ADL. ADL was assessed preoperatively and daily during the first five postoperative days. The STROBE checklist was used to report this study. RESULTS: Results showed that 44 (16.2%) patients developed new episode of delirium. Postoperative delirium was independently associated with decline in ADL (RR = 2.83, 95% CI = 2.71-2.97; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative delirium was associated with a decline in ADL among older people during the first five postoperative days. Screening for delirium in the PACU is essential to identify delirium during the early stages of postoperative period and implement a timely comprehensive plan. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE: Delirium assessment of older patients in the PACU, and for at least the first five postoperative days, is strongly recommended. We also recommend engagement of patients in a focused physical and cognitive daily activity plan, particularly for older patients undergoing major surgery. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: Patients and nurses helped in data collection at a tertiary care hospital.

Virtual Fly Brain-An interactive atlas of the Drosophila nervous system.

As a model organism, Drosophila is uniquely placed to contribute to our understanding of how brains control complex behavior. Not only does it have complex adaptive behaviors, but also a uniquely powerful genetic toolkit, increasingly complete dense connectomic maps of the central nervous system and a rapidly growing set of transcriptomic profiles of cell types. But this also poses a challenge: Given the massive amounts of available data, how are researchers to Find, Access, Integrate and Reuse (FAIR) relevant data in order to develop an integrated anatomical and molecular picture of circuits, inform hypothesis generation, and find reagents for experiments to test these hypotheses? The Virtual Fly Brain (virtualflybrain.org) web application & API provide a solution to this problem, using FAIR principles to integrate 3D images of neurons and brain regions, connectomics, transcriptomics and reagent expression data covering the whole CNS in both larva and adult. Users can search for neurons, neuroanatomy and reagents by name, location, or connectivity, via text search, clicking on 3D images, search-by-image, and queries by type (e.g., dopaminergic neuron) or properties (e.g., synaptic input in the antennal lobe). Returned results include cross-registered 3D images that can be explored in linked 2D and 3D browsers or downloaded under open licenses, and extensive descriptions of cell types and regions curated from the literature. These solutions are potentially extensible to cover similar atlasing and data integration challenges in vertebrates.

Evaluation of consultation liaison psychiatry in Australian public hospitals (AU-CLS-1).

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to determine whether consultation liaison psychiatric service (CLS) staffing within Australian public hospitals meet national and international minimum staffing standards. METHOD: Semi structured interviews were conducted with CLS Directors across Australia from August to December 2021. Data were collected on demographics, staffing, funding, hospital size and admissions. RESULTS: The majority of services did not meet minimum standards for CLS staffing. Non-medical staff outnumbered medical staff with increasing rurality. Psych-oncology CLS had the greatest resources, skill mix and service breadth. CONCLUSION: Although CLS are heterogeneous, most services are inadequately resourced to provide baseline specialist mental health care in Australian hospitals. Establishing national minimum standards for CLS staffing will facilitate uniform service development and quality care provision.

Validation of Two Screening Tools for Detecting Delirium in Older Patients in the Post-Anaesthetic Care Unit: A Diagnostic Test Accuracy Study.

(1) Background: Delirium is a common complication among surgical patients after major surgery, but it is often underdiagnosed in the post-anaesthetic care unit (PACU). Valid and reliable tools are required for improving diagnoses of delirium. The objective of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic test accuracy of the Three-Minute Diagnostic Interview for Confusion Assessment Method (3D-CAM) and the 4A's Test (4AT) as screening tools for detection of delirium in older people in the PACU. (2) Methods: A prospective diagnostic test accuracy study was conducted in the PACU and surgical wards of a university-affiliated tertiary care hospital in Victoria, Australia. A consecutive prospective cohort of elective and emergency patients (aged 65 years or older) admitted to the PACU were recruited between July 2021 and December 2021 following a surgical procedure performed under general anaesthesia and expected to stay in the hospital for at least 24 h following surgery. The outcome measures were sensitivity, specificity positive predictive value and negative predictive value for 3D-CAM and 4AT. (3) Results: A total of 271 patients were recruited: 16.2% (44/271) had definite delirium. For a diagnosis of definite delirium, the 3D-CAM (area under curve (AUC) = 0.96) had a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI 92.0 to 100.0) in the PACU and during the first 5 days post-operatively. Specificity ranged from 93% (95% CI 87.8 to 95.2) to 91% (95% CI 85.9 to 95.2) in the PACU and during the first 5 days post-operatively. The 4AT (AUC = 0.92) had a sensitivity of 93% (95% CI 81.7 to 98.6) in the PACU and during the first 5 days post-operatively, and specificity ranged from 89% (95% CI 84.6 to 93.1) to 87% (95%CI 80.9 to 91.8) in the PACU and during the first 5 days post-operatively. (4) Conclusions: The 3D-CAM and the 4AT are sensitive and specific screening tools that can be used to detect delirium in older people in the PACU. Screening with either tool could have an important clinical impact by improving the accuracy of delirium detection in the PACU and hence preventing adverse outcomes associated with delirium.

Quantifying pupil-to-pupil SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of lateral flow testing in English secondary schools.

A range of measures have been implemented to control within-school SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England, including the self-isolation of close contacts and twice weekly mass testing of secondary school pupils using lateral flow device tests (LFTs). Despite reducing transmission, isolating close contacts can lead to high levels of absences, negatively impacting pupils. To quantify pupil-to-pupil SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of implemented control measures, we fit a stochastic individual-based model of secondary school infection to both swab testing data and secondary school absences data from England, and then simulate outbreaks from 31st August 2020 until 23rd May 2021. We find that the pupil-to-pupil reproduction number, Rschool, has remained below 1 on average across the study period, and that twice weekly mass testing using LFTs has helped to control pupil-to-pupil transmission. We also explore the potential benefits of alternative containment strategies, finding that a strategy of repeat testing of close contacts rather than isolation, alongside mass testing, substantially reduces absences with only a marginal increase in pupil-to-pupil transmission.

Working with palliative care physicians to prepare for voluntary assisted dying legislation.

OBJECTIVE: The Victorian Voluntary Assisted Dying Act 2017 (the Act) exposed a spectrum of opinions regarding euthanasia and physician-assisted suicide amongst Victorian palliative care physicians leading to sometimes acrimonious debate. The profession was unable to articulate a unified role in respect of VAD. METHOD: A collaboration between psychiatry and palliative care led to a series of group discussions in order to prepare for the Act and to re-establish professional cohesion. RESULTS: Although the meetings revealed a plurality of views regarding VAD amongst palliative care physicians, the majority were firmly against the Act. Early meetings revealed strong feelings of shock and an inability to proceed. Previous debates resurfaced between those in support and those not in support of VAD. Over time, there was increased acceptance of the need to adapt to the presence of the Act in order to limit its impact on the robust relationship with the patient central to the practice of palliative care. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of VAD legislation requires an active process to address the challenges it represents for palliative care physicians. Collaborative facilitated meetings can help re-establish group cohesion through affirming the core principles of palliative care which remain independent of VAD.

Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number.

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the fore the need for policy makers to receive timely and ongoing scientific guidance in response to this recently emerged human infectious disease. Fitting mathematical models of infectious disease transmission to the available epidemiological data provide a key statistical tool for understanding the many quantities of interest that are not explicit in the underlying epidemiological data streams. Of these, the effective reproduction number, [Formula: see text], has taken on special significance in terms of the general understanding of whether the epidemic is under control ([Formula: see text]). Unfortunately, none of the epidemiological data streams are designed for modelling, hence assimilating information from multiple (often changing) sources of data is a major challenge that is particularly stark in novel disease outbreaks. Here, focusing on the dynamics of the first wave (March-June 2020), we present in some detail the inference scheme employed for calibrating the Warwick COVID-19 model to the available public health data streams, which span hospitalisations, critical care occupancy, mortality and serological testing. We then perform computational simulations, making use of the acquired parameter posterior distributions, to assess how the accuracy of short-term predictions varied over the time course of the outbreak. To conclude, we compare how refinements to data streams and model structure impact estimates of epidemiological measures, including the estimated growth rate and daily incidence.

Approximating steady state distributions for household structured epidemic models.

Household-structured infectious disease models consider the increased transmission potential between individuals of the same household when compared with two individuals in different households. Accounting for these heterogeneities in transmission enables control measures to be more effectively planned. Ideally, pre-control data may be used to fit such a household-structured model at an endemic steady state, before making dynamic forward-predictions under different proposed strategies. However, this requires the accurate calculation of the steady states for the full dynamic model. We observe that steady state SIS dynamics with household structure cannot necessarily be described by the master equation for a single household, instead requiring consideration of the full system. However, solving the full system of equations becomes increasingly computationally intensive, particularly for higher-dimensional models. We compare two approximations to the full system: the single household master equation; and a proposed alternative method, using the Fokker-Planck equation. Moment closure is another commonly used method, but for more complicated systems, the equations quickly become unwieldy and very difficult to derive. In comparison, using the master equation for a single household is easily implementable, however it can be quite inaccurate. In this paper we compare these methods in terms of accuracy and ease of implementation. We find that there are regions of parameter space in which each method outperforms the other, and that these regions of parameter space can be characterised by the infection prevalence, or by the correlation between household states.

Can depressed patients make a decision to request voluntary assisted dying?

Depressive symptoms, including those as part of a major depressive disorder, are common at the end of life. A number of psychiatrists consider that a diagnosis of major depression precludes the capacity to make a decision to request voluntary assisted dying (VAD), although this is not a unanimous view. This paper uses a case of a patient in which two different psychiatric opinions were formed regarding her capacity to make the decision to request VAD. The difference of view can be related to whether major depression was diagnosed and the association made between depression and the capacity to request VAD. The view that an absence of major depression is required in order to establish the capacity to request VAD is potentially at odds with the legal definition and not necessarily in keeping with the patient's experience at the end of life.

An analysis of school absences in England during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The introduction of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 infection, in the UK in early 2020, resulted in the introduction of several control policies to reduce disease spread. As part of these restrictions, schools were closed to all pupils in March (except for vulnerable and key worker children), before re-opening to certain year groups in June. Finally, all school children returned to the classroom in September. METHODS: Here, we analyse data on school absences in late 2020 as a result of COVID-19 infection and how that varied through time as other measures in the community were introduced. We utilise data from the Department for Education Educational Settings database and examine how pupil and teacher absences change in both primary and secondary schools. RESULTS: Our results show that absences as a result of COVID-19 infection rose steadily following the re-opening of schools in September. Cases in teachers declined during the November lockdown, particularly in regions previously in tier 3, the highest level of control at the time. Cases in secondary school pupils increased for the first 2 weeks of the November lockdown, before decreasing. Since the introduction of the tier system, the number of absences with confirmed infection in primary schools was observed to be (markedly) lower than that in secondary schools. In December, we observed a large rise in the number of absences per school in secondary school settings in the South East and London, but such rises were not observed in other regions or in primary school settings. We conjecture that the increased transmissibility of the new variant in these regions may have contributed to this rise in secondary school cases. Finally, we observe a positive correlation between cases in the community and cases in schools in most regions, with weak evidence suggesting that cases in schools lag behind cases in the surrounding community. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that there is no significant evidence to suggest that schools are playing a substantial role in driving spread in the community and that careful monitoring may be required as schools re-open to determine the effect associated with open schools upon community incidence.

The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England.

By mid-May 2020, cases of COVID-19 in the UK had been declining for over a month; a multi-phase emergence from lockdown was planned, including a scheduled partial reopening of schools on 1 June 2020. Although evidence suggests that children generally display mild symptoms, the size of the school-age population means the total impact of reopening schools is unclear. Here, we present work from mid-May 2020 that focused on the imminent opening of schools and consider what these results imply for future policy. We compared eight strategies for reopening primary and secondary schools in England. Modifying a transmission model fitted to UK SARS-CoV-2 data, we assessed how reopening schools affects contact patterns, anticipated secondary infections and the relative change in the reproduction number, R. We determined the associated public health impact and its sensitivity to changes in social distancing within the wider community. We predicted that reopening schools with half-sized classes or focused on younger children was unlikely to push R above one. Older children generally have more social contacts, so reopening secondary schools results in more cases than reopening primary schools, while reopening both could have pushed R above one in some regions. Reductions in community social distancing were found to outweigh and exacerbate any impacts of reopening. In particular, opening schools when the reproduction number R is already above one generates the largest increase in cases. Our work indicates that while any school reopening will result in increased mixing and infection amongst children and the wider population, reopening schools alone in June 2020 was unlikely to push R above one. Ultimately, reopening decisions are a difficult trade-off between epidemiological consequences and the emotional, educational and developmental needs of children. Into the future, there are difficult questions about what controls can be instigated such that schools can remain open if cases increase. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.

Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: Short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies.

Efforts to suppress transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK have seen non-pharmaceutical interventions being invoked. The most severe measures to date include all restaurants, pubs and cafes being ordered to close on 20th March, followed by a "stay at home" order on the 23rd March and the closure of all non-essential retail outlets for an indefinite period. Government agencies are presently analysing how best to develop an exit strategy from these measures and to determine how the epidemic may progress once measures are lifted. Mathematical models are currently providing short and long term forecasts regarding the future course of the COVID-19 outbreak in the UK to support evidence-based policymaking. We present a deterministic, age-structured transmission model that uses real-time data on confirmed cases requiring hospital care and mortality to provide up-to-date predictions on epidemic spread in ten regions of the UK. The model captures a range of age-dependent heterogeneities, reduced transmission from asymptomatic infections and produces a good fit to the key epidemic features over time. We simulated a suite of scenarios to assess the impact of differing approaches to relaxing social distancing measures from 7th May 2020 on the estimated number of patients requiring inpatient and critical care treatment, and deaths. With regard to future epidemic outcomes, we investigated the impact of reducing compliance, ongoing shielding of elder age groups, reapplying stringent social distancing measures using region based triggers and the role of asymptomatic transmission. We find that significant relaxation of social distancing measures from 7th May onwards can lead to a rapid resurgence of COVID-19 disease and the health system being quickly overwhelmed by a sizeable, second epidemic wave. In all considered age-shielding based strategies, we projected serious demand on critical care resources during the course of the pandemic. The reintroduction and release of strict measures on a regional basis, based on ICU bed occupancy, results in a long epidemic tail, until the second half of 2021, but ensures that the health service is protected by reintroducing social distancing measures for all individuals in a region when required. Our work confirms the effectiveness of stringent non-pharmaceutical measures in March 2020 to suppress the epidemic. It also provides strong evidence to support the need for a cautious, measured approach to relaxation of lockdown measures, to protect the most vulnerable members of society and support the health service through subduing demand on hospital beds, in particular bed occupancy in intensive care units.

Fitting to the UK COVID-19 outbreak, short-term forecasts and estimating the reproductive number.

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the fore the need for policy makers to receive timely and ongoing scientific guidance in response to this recently emerged human infectious disease. Fitting mathematical models of infectious disease transmission to the available epidemiological data provides a key statistical tool for understanding the many quantities of interest that are not explicit in the underlying epidemiological data streams. Of these, the effective reproduction number, R, has taken on special significance in terms of the general understanding of whether the epidemic is under control (R < 1). Unfortunately, none of the epidemiological data streams are designed for modelling, hence assimilating information from multiple (often changing) sources of data is a major challenge that is particularly stark in novel disease outbreaks. Here, focusing on the dynamics of the first-wave (March-June 2020), we present in some detail the inference scheme employed for calibrating the Warwick COVID-19 model to the available public health data streams, which span hospitalisations, critical care occupancy, mortality and serological testing. We then perform computational simulations, making use of the acquired parameter posterior distributions, to assess how the accuracy of short-term predictions varied over the timecourse of the outbreak. To conclude, we compare how refinements to data streams and model structure impact estimates of epidemiological measures, including the estimated growth rate and daily incidence.

Palliative care physicians' preparation and planning for the implementation of the Voluntary Assisted Dying Act in Victoria.

BACKGROUND: In November 2017, the Victorian Voluntary Assisted Dying (VAD) Act was passed enabling people with a progressive terminal illness to end their life voluntarily. Heated debate abounded including, to some extent within palliative care, which was also challenged with developing processes around the legislation enactment. AIM: In response, the lead author convened a series of meetings of palliative care physicians to: (i) share ideas about preparations being undertaken within services; and (ii) re-establish professional cohesion following the divide that the legislation had presented. METHODS: A series of three closed meetings were held between the legislation passage and its implementation, with all Victorian palliative care physicians invited to attend. Meetings were facilitated by an experienced psychiatrist from outside the field. RESULTS: These meetings proved very valuable as physicians collectively sought to define and respond to challenges, simultaneously reflecting on the personal and professional implications for individuals and the field. Key areas raised including gauging institutional 'readiness' for the legislation through staff surveys; the educational role of palliative care staff of the legislation implications; communication skills training; the role (if any) of palliative care in the processes of VAD; and the perceptions of palliative care itself in health services and the community. It was during the processes of discussing challenges and sharing solutions that the attendees appeared to reaffirm their professional interconnections. CONCLUSION: A description of the key elements of these discussions may be useful to others who may yet face similar circumstances with the introduction of VAD legislation.

Homeless men with psychosis are spending more time shelterless.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to determine if homeless men with psychosis in central Melbourne have spent a greater proportion of the past 12 months in homeless settings as compared with the same group 15 years previously. METHOD: A 12-month accommodation history was collected from all men with psychosis assessed by a homeless outreach mental health team over a 12-month period commencing 2018 and compared with data from 2006. RESULTS: Between 2006 and 2018, the percentage of time spent homeless in the previous 12 months rose from 50% to 80% (p = 0.0001). The mean time spent shelterless increased from 72 days to 149 days (p = 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The amount of time spent homeless has increased in men with psychosis assessed in central Melbourne. This finding suggests that men with psychosis are becoming increasingly entrenched in homeless settings. Addressing this trend requires an increased emphasis on assertive outreach, greater access to acute inpatient and long-term rehabilitation units, and more low cost affordable housing, including housing first facilities.