Nature 4.0: A networked sensor system for integrated biodiversity monitoring.

Ecosystem functions and services are severely threatened by unprecedented global loss in biodiversity. To counteract these trends, it is essential to develop systems to monitor changes in biodiversity for planning, evaluating, and implementing conservation and mitigation actions. However, the implementation of monitoring systems suffers from a trade-off between grain (i.e., the level of detail), extent (i.e., the number of study sites), and temporal repetition. Here, we present an applied and realized networked sensor system for integrated biodiversity monitoring in the Nature 4.0 project as a solution to these challenges, which considers plants and animals not only as targets of investigation, but also as parts of the modular sensor network by carrying sensors. Our networked sensor system consists of three main closely interlinked components with a modular structure: sensors, data transmission, and data storage, which are integrated into pipelines for automated biodiversity monitoring. We present our own real-world examples of applications, share our experiences in operating them, and provide our collected open data. Our flexible, low-cost, and open-source solutions can be applied for monitoring individual and multiple terrestrial plants and animals as well as their interactions. Ultimately, our system can also be applied to area-wide ecosystem mapping tasks, thereby providing an exemplary cost-efficient and powerful solution for biodiversity monitoring. Building upon our experiences in the Nature 4.0 project, we identified ten key challenges that need to be addressed to better understand and counteract the ongoing loss of biodiversity using networked sensor systems. To tackle these challenges, interdisciplinary collaboration, additional research, and practical solutions are necessary to enhance the capability and applicability of networked sensor systems for researchers and practitioners, ultimately further helping to ensure the sustainable management of ecosystems and the provision of ecosystem services.

Machine learning with asymmetric abstention for biomedical decision-making.

Machine learning and artificial intelligence have entered biomedical decision-making for diagnostics, prognostics, or therapy recommendations. However, these methods need to be interpreted with care because of the severe consequences for patients. In contrast to human decision-making, computational models typically make a decision also with low confidence. Machine learning with abstention better reflects human decision-making by introducing a reject option for samples with low confidence. The abstention intervals are typically symmetric intervals around the decision boundary. In the current study, we use asymmetric abstention intervals, which we demonstrate to be better suited for biomedical data that is typically highly imbalanced. We evaluate symmetric and asymmetric abstention on three real-world biomedical datasets and show that both approaches can significantly improve classification performance. However, asymmetric abstention rejects as many or fewer samples compared to symmetric abstention and thus, should be used in imbalanced data.

The emergence of three human development clubs.

We examine the joint distribution of levels of income per capita, life expectancy, and years of schooling across countries in 1960 and in 2000. In 1960 countries were clustered in two groups; a rich, highly educated, high longevity "developed" group and a poor, less educated, high mortality, "underdeveloped" group. By 2000 however we see the emergence of three groups; one underdeveloped group remaining near 1960 levels, a developed group with higher levels of education, income, and health than in 1960, and an intermediate group lying between these two. This finding is consistent with both the ideas of a new "middle income trap" that countries face even if they escape the "low income trap", as well as the notion that countries which escaped the poverty trap form a temporary "transition regime" along their path to the "developed" group.

On identifiability in capture-recapture models.

We study the issue of identifiability of mixture models in the context of capture-recapture abundance estimation for closed populations. Such models are used to take account of individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities, but their validity was recently questioned by Link (2003, Biometrics 59, 1123-1130) on the basis of their nonidentifiability. We give a general criterion for identifiability of the mixing distribution, and apply it to establish identifiability within families of mixing distributions that are commonly used in this context, including finite and beta mixtures. Our analysis covers binomial and geometrically distributed outcomes. In an example we highlight the difference between the identifiability issue considered here and that in classical binomial mixture models.