Long-term trends in the body condition of parents and offspring of Tengmalm's owls under fluctuating food conditions and climate change.

Physical condition is important for the ability to resist various parasites and diseases as well as in escaping predators thus contributing to reproductive success, over-winter survival and possible declines in wildlife populations. However, in-depth research on trends in body condition is rare because decades-long datasets are not available for a majority of species. We analysed the long-term dataset of offspring covering 34 years, male parents (40 years) and female parents (42 years) to find out whether the decline of Tengmalm's owl population in western Finland is attributable to either decreased adult and/or juvenile body condition in interaction with changing weather conditions and density estimates of main foods. We found that body condition of parent owl males and females declined throughout the 40-year study period whereas the body condition of owlets at the fledging stage very slightly increased. The body condition of parent owls increased with augmenting depth of snow cover in late winter (January to March), and that of offspring improved with increasing precipitation in late spring (May to June). We conclude that the decreasing trend of body condition of parent owl males and females is important factor probably inducing reduced adult survival and reduced reproduction success thus contributing to the long-term decline of the Tengmalm's owl study population. The very slightly increasing trend of body condition of offspring is obviously not able to compensate the overall decline of Tengmalm's owl population, because the number of offspring in turn simultaneously decreased considerably in the long-term. The ongoing climate change appeared to work in opposite ways in this case because declining depth of snow cover will make the situation worse but increased precipitation will improve. We suggest that the main reasons for long-term decline of body condition of parent owls are interactive or additive effects of reduced food resources and increased overall predation risk due to habitat degradation (loss and fragmentation of mature and old-growth forests due to clear-felling) subsequently leading to decline of Tengmalm's owl study population.

Interactive influences of fluctuations of main food resources and climate change on long-term population decline of Tengmalm's owls in the boreal forest.

Recent wildlife population declines are usually attributed to multiple sources such as global climate change and habitat loss and degradation inducing decreased food supply. However, interactive effects of fluctuations in abundance of main foods and weather conditions on population densities and reproductive success have been studied rarely. We analysed long-term (1973-2018) data on Tengmalm's owl (Aegolius funereus) and the influence of prey abundance and weather on breeding densities and reproductive success in western Finland. We found that fledgling production per breeding attempt declined and laying date of the owl population delayed during the period between 1973 and 2018. The breeding density of the owl population decreased with increasing temperature in winter (October-March), fledgling production increased with increasing temperature and precipitation in spring (April-June), whereas the initiation of egg-laying was delayed with increasing depth of snow cover in late winter (January-March). The decreasing trend of fledgling production, which was mainly due to starvation of offspring, was an important factor contributing to the long-term decline of the Tengmalm's owl study population. Milder and more humid spring and early summer temperatures due to global warming were not able to compensate for lowered offspring production of owls. The main reason for low productivity is probably loss and degradation of mature and old-growth forests due to clear-felling which results in loss of coverage of prime habitat for main (bank voles) and alternative foods (small birds) of owls inducing lack of food, and refuges against predators of Tengmalm's owls. This interpretation was also supported by the delayed start of egg-laying during the study period although ambient temperatures increased prior to and during the egg-laying period.

Predation risk in relation to brain size in alternative prey of pygmy owls varies depending on the abundance of main prey.

Large brains in prey may select for adoption of anti-predator behavior that facilitates escape. Prey species with relatively large brains have been shown to be less likely to fall prey to predators. This results in the prediction that individuals that have been captured by predators on average should have smaller brains than sympatric conspecifics. We exploited the fact that Eurasian pygmy owls Glaucidium passerinum hoard small mammals and birds in cavities and nest-boxes for over-winter survival, allowing for comparison of the phenotype of prey with that of live conspecifics. In Northern Europe, main prey of pygmy owls are voles of the genera Myodes and Microtus, while forest birds and shrews are the most important alternative prey. Large fluctuations (amplitude 100-200-fold) in vole populations induce rapid numerical responses of pygmy owls to main prey populations, which in turn results in varying predation pressure on small birds. We found, weighed and measured 153 birds in food-stores of pygmy owls and mist-netted, weighed and measured 333 live birds of 12 species in central-western Finland during two autumns with low (2017) and high (2018) pygmy owl predation risk. In two autumns, individuals with large brains were captured later compared to individuals with small brains, consistent with the hypothesis that such individuals survived for longer. Avian prey of pygmy owls had smaller heads than live birds in autumn 2018 when predation risk by pygmy owls was high. This difference in head size was not significant in 2017 when predation risk by pygmy owls was reduced. Finally, avian survivors were in better body condition than avian prey individuals. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that pygmy owls differentially prey on birds in poor condition with small brains. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that predation risk imposed by pygmy owls on small birds in boreal forests varies depending on the abundance of the main prey (voles).

Weather and biotic interactions as determinants of seasonal shifts in abundance measured through nest-box occupancy in the Siberian flying squirrel.

It is much debated whether the direct effects of weather or biotic interactions determine species' responses to climate change. For example, an important biotic factor for herbivores in northern ecosystems is the availability of winter food. If the food availability changes because of the changing climate, it likely has major impact on the abundance of herbivores. To evaluate this, we need to know the relative roles of weather and biotic interactions, such as food availability and risk of predation, for the species. Here, we utilize long-term data on nest-box occupancy by Siberian flying squirrels (Pteromys volans) in Finland during 2002-2018. We built binary models with nest-box occupancy in different seasons as a response variable. Weather, winter food (tree mast), and predator presence (the Ural owl, Strix uralensis) modified seasonal nest-box occupancy patterns of the flying squirrel. However, the effect of weather was only important in the summer. The negative effect of predators was clear for adults but, surprisingly, not for overwinter survival of apparent juveniles. Considering the relative importance of different factors, winter food availability had a clear positive effect in each season. Our study supports the view that the effects of climate change mediate through multiple biotic interactions. In forest ecosystems, responses of masting trees to weather likely play an important role in species responses to climate change.