Modification of coronary artery disease clinical risk factors by coronary artery disease polygenic risk score.

BACKGROUND: The extent to which the relationships between clinical risk factors and coronary artery disease (CAD) are altered by CAD polygenic risk score (PRS) is not well understood. Here, we determine whether the interactions between clinical risk factors and CAD PRS further explain risk for incident CAD. METHODS: Participants were of European ancestry from the UK Biobank without prevalent CAD. An externally trained genome-wide CAD PRS was generated and then applied. Clinical risk factors were ascertained at baseline. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted to examine the incident CAD effects of CAD PRS, risk factors, and their interactions. Next, the PRS and risk factors were stratified to investigate the attributable risk of clinical risk factors. FINDINGS: A total of 357,144 individuals of European ancestry without prevalent CAD were included. During a median of 11.1 years of follow-up (interquartile range 10.4-14.1 years), CAD PRS was associated with 1.35-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.332-1.368) risk per SD for incident CAD. The prognostic relevance of the following risk factors was relatively diminished for those with high CAD PRS on a continuous scale: type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio [HR]interaction 0.91, 95% CIinteraction 0.88-0.94), increased body mass index (HRinteraction 0.97, 95% CIinteraction 0.96-0.98), and increased C-reactive protein (HRinteraction 0.98, 95% CIinteraction 0.96-0.99). However, a high CAD PRS yielded joint risk increases with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HRinteraction 1.05, 95% CIinteraction 1.04-1.06) and total cholesterol (HRinteraction 1.05, 95% CIinteraction 1.03-1.06). CONCLUSION: The CAD PRS is associated with incident CAD, and its application improves the prognostic relevance of several clinical risk factors. FUNDING: P.N. (R01HL127564, R01HL151152, and U01HG011719) is supported by the National Institutes of Health.

Integrative polygenic risk score improves the prediction accuracy of complex traits and diseases.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are an emerging tool to predict the clinical phenotypes and outcomes of individuals. We propose PRSmix, a framework that leverages the PRS corpus of a target trait to improve prediction accuracy, and PRSmix+, which incorporates genetically correlated traits to better capture the human genetic architecture for 47 and 32 diseases/traits in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. PRSmix demonstrated a mean prediction accuracy improvement of 1.20-fold (95% confidence interval [CI], [1.10; 1.3]; p = 9.17 × 10-5) and 1.19-fold (95% CI, [1.11; 1.27]; p = 1.92 × 10-6), and PRSmix+ improved the prediction accuracy by 1.72-fold (95% CI, [1.40; 2.04]; p = 7.58 × 10-6) and 1.42-fold (95% CI, [1.25; 1.59]; p = 8.01 × 10-7) in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. Compared to the previously cross-trait-combination methods with scores from pre-defined correlated traits, we demonstrated that our method improved prediction accuracy for coronary artery disease up to 3.27-fold (95% CI, [2.1; 4.44]; p value after false discovery rate (FDR) correction = 2.6 × 10-4). Our method provides a comprehensive framework to benchmark and leverage the combined power of PRS for maximal performance in a desired target population.

Polygenic Scores and Preclinical Cardiovascular Disease in Individuals With HIV: Insights From the REPRIEVE Trial.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a leading cause of death among the 38.4 million people with HIV globally. The extent to which cardiovascular polygenic risk scores (PRSs) derived in non-HIV populations generalize to people with HIV is not well understood. METHODS AND RESULTS: PRSs for CAD (GPSMult) and lipid traits were calculated in a global cohort of people with HIV treated with antiretroviral therapy with low-to-moderate atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk enrolled in REPRIEVE (Randomized Trial to Prevent Vascular Events in HIV). The PRSs were associated with baseline lipid traits in 4495 genotyped participants, and with subclinical CAD in a subset of 662 who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography. Among participants who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography (mean age, 50.9 [SD, 5.8] years; 16.1% women; 41.8% African, 57.3% European, 1.1% Asian), GPSMult was associated with plaque presence with odds ratio (OR) per SD in GPSMult of 1.42 (95% CI, 1.20-1.68; P=3.8×10-5), stenosis >50% (OR, 2.39 [95% CI, 1.48-3.85]; P=3.4×10-4), and noncalcified/vulnerable plaque (OR, 1.45 [95% CI, 1.23-1.72]; P=9.6×10-6). Effects were consistent in subgroups of age, sex, 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk, ancestry, and CD4 count. Adding GPSMult to established risk factors increased the C-statistic for predicting plaque presence from 0.718 to 0.734 (P=0.02). Furthermore, a PRS for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was associated with plaque presence with OR of 1.21 (95% CI, 1.01-1.44; P=0.04), and partially calcified plaque with OR of 1.21 (95% CI, 1.01-1.45; P=0.04) per SD. CONCLUSIONS: Among people with HIV treated with antiretroviral therapy without documented atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and at low-to-moderate calculated risk in REPRIEVE, an externally developed CAD PRS was predictive of subclinical atherosclerosis. PRS for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was also associated with subclinical atherosclerosis, supporting a role for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in HIV-associated CAD. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.reprievetrial.org; Unique identifier: NCT02344290.

Risk factors for clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential in people with HIV: a report from the REPRIEVE trial.

ABSTRACT: Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), the clonal expansion of myeloid cells with leukemogenic mutations, results in increased coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. CHIP is more prevalent among people with HIV (PWH), but the risk factors are unknown. CHIP was identified among PWH in REPRIEVE (Randomized Trial to Prevent Vascular Events in HIV) using whole-exome sequencing. Logistic regression was used to associate sociodemographic factors and HIV-specific factors with CHIP adjusting for age, sex, and smoking status. In the studied global cohort of 4486 PWH, mean age was 49.9 (standard deviation [SD], 6.4) years; 1650 (36.8%) were female; and 3418 (76.2%) were non-White. CHIP was identified in 223 of 4486 (4.97%) and in 38 of 373 (10.2%) among those aged ≥60 years. Age (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.09; P < .0001) and smoking (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.14-1.66; P < .001) associated with increased odds of CHIP. Globally, participants outside of North America had lower odds of CHIP including sub-Saharan Africa (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.4-0.81; P = .0019), South Asia (OR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.23-0.80; P = .01), and Latin America/Caribbean (OR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.34-0.87; P = .014). Hispanic/Latino ethnicity (OR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.23-0.54; P = .002) associated with significantly lower odds of CHIP. Among HIV-specific factors, CD4 nadir <50 cells/mm3 associated with a 1.9-fold (95%CI, 1.21-3.05; P = .006) increased odds of CHIP, with the effect being significantly stronger among individuals with short duration of antiretroviral therapy (ART; OR, 4.15; 95% CI, 1.51-11.1; P = .005) (Pinteraction= .0492). Among PWH at low-to-moderate CAD risk on stable ART, smoking, CD4 nadir, North American origin, and non-Hispanic ethnicity associated with increased odds of CHIP. This trial was registered at www.ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT02344290.

Genetic Associations of Circulating Cardiovascular Proteins With Gestational Hypertension and Preeclampsia.

Importance: Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDPs), including gestational hypertension and preeclampsia, are important contributors to maternal morbidity and mortality worldwide. In addition, women with HDPs face an elevated long-term risk of cardiovascular disease. Objective: To identify proteins in the circulation associated with HDPs. Design, Setting, and Participants: Two-sample mendelian randomization (MR) tested the associations of genetic instruments for cardiovascular disease-related proteins with gestational hypertension and preeclampsia. In downstream analyses, a systematic review of observational data was conducted to evaluate the identified proteins' dynamics across gestation in hypertensive vs normotensive pregnancies, and phenome-wide MR analyses were performed to identify potential non-HDP-related effects associated with the prioritized proteins. Genetic association data for cardiovascular disease-related proteins were obtained from the Systematic and Combined Analysis of Olink Proteins (SCALLOP) consortium. Genetic association data for the HDPs were obtained from recent European-ancestry genome-wide association study meta-analyses for gestational hypertension and preeclampsia. Study data were analyzed October 2022 to October 2023. Exposures: Genetic instruments for 90 candidate proteins implicated in cardiovascular diseases, constructed using cis-protein quantitative trait loci (cis-pQTLs). Main Outcomes and Measures: Gestational hypertension and preeclampsia. Results: Genetic association data for cardiovascular disease-related proteins were obtained from 21 758 participants from the SCALLOP consortium. Genetic association data for the HDPs were obtained from 393 238 female individuals (8636 cases and 384 602 controls) for gestational hypertension and 606 903 female individuals (16 032 cases and 590 871 controls) for preeclampsia. Seventy-five of 90 proteins (83.3%) had at least 1 valid cis-pQTL. Of those, 10 proteins (13.3%) were significantly associated with HDPs. Four were robust to sensitivity analyses for gestational hypertension (cluster of differentiation 40, eosinophil cationic protein [ECP], galectin 3, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP]), and 2 were robust for preeclampsia (cystatin B, heat shock protein 27 [HSP27]). Consistent with the MR findings, observational data revealed that lower NT-proBNP (0.76- to 0.88-fold difference vs no HDPs) and higher HSP27 (2.40-fold difference vs no HDPs) levels during the first trimester of pregnancy were associated with increased risk of HDPs, as were higher levels of ECP (1.60-fold difference vs no HDPs). Phenome-wide MR analyses identified 37 unique non-HDP-related protein-disease associations, suggesting potential on-target effects associated with interventions lowering HDP risk through the identified proteins. Conclusions and Relevance: Study findings suggest genetic associations of 4 cardiovascular disease-related proteins with gestational hypertension and 2 associated with preeclampsia. Future studies are required to test the efficacy of targeting the corresponding pathways to reduce HDP risk.

Cumulative Diastolic Blood Pressure Burden in Normal Systolic Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: The clinical significance of isolated diastolic hypertension defined by the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association blood pressure (BP) guidelines remains inconsistent. We examined whether long-term diastolic burden predicts the first major adverse cardiovascular event in participants with sustained and untreated normal systolic BP. METHODS: The Mass General Brigham Biobank is a New England health care-based cohort recruited between 2010 and 2021. A total of 15 979 participants aged 18 to 64 years and without prior cardiovascular disease, antihypertensives, or high systolic BP were studied. The cumulative diastolic burden was determined as the area under the curve for diastolic BP (DBP) ≥80 mm Hg over 5 years before enrollment. Major adverse cardiovascular event was defined as a composite of first incident ischemic heart disease, stroke, heart failure, or all-cause death. RESULTS: Of the 15 979 participants, mean (SD) age at enrollment was 47.6 (14.3) years, 11 950 (74.8%) were women, and the mean (SD) systolic BP and DBP were 118.0 (12.9) and 72.2 (9.3) mm Hg, respectively. Over a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 3.5 (1.8-5.4) years, 2467 (15.4%) major adverse cardiovascular events occurred. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, each SD increase in cumulative DBP was independently associated with a hazard ratio (95% CI) of 1.06 (1.02-1.10) without effect modification by sex (P=0.65), age (P=0.46), or race/ethnicity (P=0.24). In addition to traditional risk factors, cumulative DBP modestly improved the discrimination C index (95% CI) from 0.74 (0.72-0.75) to 0.75 (0.74-0.76; likelihood ratio test, P=0.037). CONCLUSIONS: Among individuals with normal systolic BP, cumulative DBP may augment cardiovascular disease risk stratification beyond a single DBP measure and traditional risk factors.

Clonal haematopoiesis of indeterminate potential predicts incident cardiac arrhythmias.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Clonal haematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), the age-related expansion of blood cells with preleukemic mutations, is associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and heart failure. This study aimed to test the association of CHIP with new-onset arrhythmias. METHODS: UK Biobank participants without prevalent arrhythmias were included. Co-primary study outcomes were supraventricular arrhythmias, bradyarrhythmias, and ventricular arrhythmias. Secondary outcomes were cardiac arrest, atrial fibrillation, and any arrhythmia. Associations of any CHIP [variant allele fraction (VAF) ≥ 2%], large CHIP (VAF ≥10%), and gene-specific CHIP subtypes with incident arrhythmias were evaluated using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. Associations of CHIP with myocardial interstitial fibrosis [T1 measured using cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR)] were also tested. RESULTS: This study included 410 702 participants [CHIP: n = 13 892 (3.4%); large CHIP: n = 9191 (2.2%)]. Any and large CHIP were associated with multi-variable-adjusted hazard ratios of 1.11 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.18; P = .001] and 1.13 (95% CI 1.05-1.22; P = .001) for supraventricular arrhythmias, 1.09 (95% CI 1.01-1.19; P = .031) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.03-1.25; P = .011) for bradyarrhythmias, and 1.16 (95% CI, 1.00-1.34; P = .049) and 1.22 (95% CI 1.03-1.45; P = .021) for ventricular arrhythmias, respectively. Associations were independent of coronary artery disease and heart failure. Associations were also heterogeneous across arrhythmia subtypes and strongest for cardiac arrest. Gene-specific analyses revealed an increased risk of arrhythmias across driver genes other than DNMT3A. Large CHIP was associated with 1.31-fold odds (95% CI 1.07-1.59; P = .009) of being in the top quintile of myocardial fibrosis by CMR. CONCLUSIONS: CHIP may represent a novel risk factor for incident arrhythmias, indicating a potential target for modulation towards arrhythmia prevention and treatment.

Decoding Genetics, Ancestry, and Geospatial Context for Precision Health.

Mass General Brigham, an integrated healthcare system based in the Greater Boston area of Massachusetts, annually serves 1.5 million patients. We established the Mass General Brigham Biobank (MGBB), encompassing 142,238 participants, to unravel the intricate relationships among genomic profiles, environmental context, and disease manifestations within clinical practice. In this study, we highlight the impact of ancestral diversity in the MGBB by employing population genetics, geospatial assessment, and association analyses of rare and common genetic variants. The population structures captured by the genetics mirror the sequential immigration to the Greater Boston area throughout American history, highlighting communities tied to shared genetic and environmental factors. Our investigation underscores the potency of unbiased, large-scale analyses in a healthcare-affiliated biobank, elucidating the dynamic interplay across genetics, immigration, structural geospatial factors, and health outcomes in one of the earliest American sites of European colonization.

Dynamic Importance of Genomic and Clinical Risk for Coronary Artery Disease Over the Life Course.

Importance: Earlier identification of high coronary artery disease (CAD) risk individuals may enable more effective prevention strategies. However, existing 10-year risk frameworks are ineffective at earlier identification. Understanding the variable importance of genomic and clinical factors across life stages may significantly improve lifelong CAD event prediction. Objective: To assess the time-varying significance of genomic and clinical risk factors in CAD risk estimation across various age groups. Design Setting and Participants: A longitudinal study was performed using data from two cohort studies: the Framingham Offspring Study (FOS) with 3,588 participants aged 19-57 years and the UK Biobank (UKB) with 327,837 participants aged 40-70 years. A total of 134,765 and 3,831,734 person-time years were observed in FOS and UKB, respectively. Main Outcomes and Measures: Hazard ratios (HR) for CAD were calculated for polygenic risk scores (PRS) and clinical risk factors at each age of enrollment. The relative importance of PRS and Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) in predicting CAD events was also evaluated by age groups. Results: The importance of CAD PRS diminished over the life course, with an HR of 3.58 (95% CI 1.39-9.19) at age 19 in FOS and an HR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.48-1.54) by age 70 in UKB. Clinical risk factors exhibited similar age-dependent trends. PRS significantly outperformed PCE in identifying subsequent CAD events in the 40-45-year age group, with 3.2-fold more appropriately identified events. The mean age of CAD events occurred 1.8 years earlier for those at high genomic risk but 9.6 years later for those at high clinical risk (p<0.001). Overall, adding PRS improved the area under the receiving operating curve of the PCE by an average of +5.1% (95% CI 4.9-5.2%) across all age groups; among individuals <55 years, PRS augmented the AUC-ROC of the PCE by 6.5% (95% CI 5.5-7.5%, p<0.001). Conclusions and Relevance: Genomic and clinical risk factors for CAD display time-varying importance across the lifespan. The study underscores the added value of CAD PRS, particularly among individuals younger than 55 years, for enhancing early risk prediction and prevention strategies.

Genome-wide association meta-analysis identifies risk loci for abdominal aortic aneurysm and highlights PCSK9 as a therapeutic target.

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a common disease with substantial heritability. In this study, we performed a genome-wide association meta-analysis from 14 discovery cohorts and uncovered 141 independent associations, including 97 previously unreported loci. A polygenic risk score derived from meta-analysis explained AAA risk beyond clinical risk factors. Genes at AAA risk loci indicate involvement of lipid metabolism, vascular development and remodeling, extracellular matrix dysregulation and inflammation as key mechanisms in AAA pathogenesis. These genes also indicate overlap between the development of AAA and other monogenic aortopathies, particularly via transforming growth factor ß signaling. Motivated by the strong evidence for the role of lipid metabolism in AAA, we used Mendelian randomization to establish the central role of nonhigh-density lipoprotein cholesterol in AAA and identified the opportunity for repurposing of proprotein convertase, subtilisin/kexin-type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors. This was supported by a study demonstrating that PCSK9 loss of function prevented the development of AAA in a preclinical mouse model.

Bayesian multivariate genetic analysis improves translational insights.

While lipid traits are known essential mediators of cardiovascular disease, few approaches have taken advantage of their shared genetic effects. We apply a Bayesian multivariate size estimator, mash, to GWAS of four lipid traits in the Million Veterans Program (MVP) and provide posterior mean and local false sign rates for all effects. These estimates borrow information across traits to improve effect size accuracy. We show that controlling local false sign rates accurately and powerfully identifies replicable genetic associations and that multivariate control furthers the ability to explain complex diseases. Our application yields high concordance between independent datasets, more accurately prioritizes causal genes, and significantly improves polygenic prediction beyond state-of-the-art methods by up to 59% for lipid traits. The use of Bayesian multivariate genetic shrinkage has yet to be applied to human quantitative trait GWAS results, and we present a staged approach to prediction on a polygenic scale.

Long-term longitudinal analysis of 4,187 participants reveals new insights into determinants of incident clonal hematopoiesis.

Clonal hematopoiesis (CH), characterized by blood cells predominantly originating from a single mutated hematopoietic stem cell, is linked to diverse aging-related diseases, including hematologic malignancy and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). While CH is common among older adults, the underlying factors driving its development are largely unknown. To address this, we performed whole-exome sequencing on 8,374 blood DNA samples collected from 4,187 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC) participants over a median follow-up of 21 years. During this period, 735 participants developed incident CH. We found that age at baseline, sex, and dyslipidemia significantly influence the incidence of CH, while ASCVD and other traditional risk factors for ASCVD did not exhibit such associations. Our study also revealed associations between germline genetic variants and incident CH, prioritizing genes in CH development. Our comprehensive longitudinal assessment yields novel insights into the factors contributing to incident CH in older adults.

Multi-ancestry meta-analysis identifies 5 novel loci for ischemic stroke and reveals heterogeneity of effects between sexes and ancestries.

Stroke is the second leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Stroke prevalence varies by sex and ancestry, possibly due to genetic heterogeneity between subgroups. We performed a genome-wide meta-analysis of 16 biobanks across multiple ancestries to study the genetics of ischemic stroke (60,176 cases, 1,310,725 controls) as part of the Global Biobank Meta-analysis Initiative (GBMI) and further combined the results with previously published MegaStroke. Five novel loci for ischemic stroke (LAMC1, CALCRL, PLSCR1, CDKN1A, and SWAP70) were identified after replication in four additional datasets. One previously reported locus showed significant ancestry heterogeneity (ABO), and one showed significant sex heterogeneity (ALDH2). The ALDH2 association was male specific (males p = 1.67e-24, females p = 0.126) and was additionally observed only in the East Asian ancestry (male) samples. These findings emphasize the need for more diverse datasets with large sample sizes to further understand the genetic predisposition of stroke in different ancestry and sex groups.

Representation of Race and Ethnicity in the Contemporary US Health Cohort All of Us Research Program.

Importance: To address systemic disparities in biomedical research, the All of Us (AoU) Research Program was created to identify the root causes and consequences of health outcomes in the US. However, the extent of AoU's racial and ethnic diversity is unknown. Objective: To quantify representation of key racial and ethnic groups in the accruing AoU nationwide health cohort and compare with their actual representation in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study compared the AoU program from May 2017 to June 2022 for individuals 18 years and older with the Decennial Survey 2020 (DEC) collected by the US Census Bureau. Exposures: Representation of non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic Black or African American, Hispanic or Latino, non-Hispanic White, and uncategorized or multiple races in AoU. Main Outcomes and Measures: The extent of underrepresentation or overrepresentation of each racial group in the AoU program at both nationwide and state-level relative to DEC. Results: Of the 358 705 US adults in the AoU to date, individuals identified with the following race and ethnicity categories: 12 710 non-Hispanic Asian (3.5%), 73 348 non-Hispanic Black or African American (20.5%), 58 488 Hispanic or Latino (16.3%), 205 457 non-Hispanic White (57.3%), and 8702 uncategorized or reporting multiple categories (2.4%). Of 355 413 participants with available sex at birth and age data, 218 981 (61.6%) were female and had a mean (SD) age of 53.1 (17.0) years, 136 037 (38.28%) were male and had a mean (SD) age of 56.7 (17.0) years, and 395 reported nonbinary sex (0.1%), with a mean (SD) age of 55.4 (15.8) years. Compared with the referent US, non-Hispanic Black or African American individuals were overrepresented in the AoU by 8.73% (AoU, 20.5% [73 348 of 358 705] vs DEC, 11.7% [30 266 080 of 258 343 281]) and by relative scale, 1.94-fold. Non-Hispanic White individuals accounted for the greatest participation in the AoU with generally consistent dominance across all regions yet numerically underrepresented by absolute difference of -3.54% (95% CI, -3.70 to -3.38). Uncategorized or multiracial group in the AoU (2.4% [8702 of 358 705]) was 0.43-fold likely to be represented relative to the DEC (4.6% [11 922 096 of 258 343 281]) with an absolute difference of -2.19% (95% CI, -2.24 to -2.14). Moreover, non-Hispanic Asian individuals were underrepresented by -2.54% (95% CI, -2.60 to -2.48) prominently in most states. Individuals identifying as Hispanic or Latino were nominally underrepresented by -0.46% (95% CI, -0.58 to -0.34) (AoU, 16.3% [58 488 of 358 705] vs DEC, 16.8% [43 322 792 of 258 343 281]). Conclusions and Relevance: Recruitment trends for the ongoing AoU show relatively improved representation of some major race groups with geographic trends. These findings underscore the need to further tailor and augment recruitment and participation initiatives for diverse populations.

Integrative metabolomics differentiate coronary artery disease, peripheral artery disease, and venous thromboembolism risks.

Rationale: Arterial and venous cardiovascular conditions, such as coronary artery disease (CAD), peripheral artery disease (PAD), and venous thromboembolism (VTE), are genetically correlated. Interrogating distinct and overlapping mechanisms may shed new light on disease mechanisms. Objective: In this study, we aimed to: identify and compare (1) epidemiologic and (2) causal, genetic relationships between metabolites and CAD, PAD, and VTE. Methods: We used metabolomic data from 95,402 individuals in the UK Biobank, excluding individuals with prevalent cardiovascular disease. Logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, genotyping array, first five principal components of ancestry, and statin use estimated the epidemiologic associations of 249 metabolites with incident CAD, PAD, or VTE. Bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) estimated the causal effects between metabolites and cardiovascular phenotypes using genome-wide association summary statistics for metabolites (N = 118,466 from UK Biobank), CAD (N = 184,305 from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D 2015), PAD (N = 243,060 from Million Veterans Project) and VTE (N = 650,119 from Million Veterans Project). Multivariable MR (MVMR) was performed in subsequent analyses. Results: We found that 194, 111, and 69 metabolites were epidemiologically associated (P < 0.001) with CAD, PAD, and VTE, respectively. Metabolomic profiles exhibited variable similarity between disease pairs: CAD and PAD (N = 100 shared associations, R2 = 0.499), CAD and VTE (N = 68, R2 = 0.455), and PAD and VTE (N = 54, R2 = 0.752). MR revealed 28 metabolites that increased risk for both CAD and PAD and 2 metabolites that increased risk for CAD but decreased risk for VTE. Despite strong epidemiologic overlap, no metabolites had a shared genetic relationship between PAD and VTE. MVMR revealed several metabolites with shared causal effects on CAD and PAD related to cholesterol content within very-low-density lipoprotein particles. Conclusions: While common arterial and venous conditions are associated with overlapping metabolomic profiles, MR prioritized the role of remnant cholesterol in arterial diseases but not venous thrombosis.

Age at Menopause, Leukocyte Telomere Length, and Coronary Artery Disease in Postmenopausal Women.

BACKGROUND: Premature menopause is a risk factor for accelerated cardiovascular aging, but underlying mechanisms remain incompletely understood. This study investigated the role of leukocyte telomere length (LTL), a marker of cellular aging and genomic instability, in the association of premature menopause with cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Participants from the UK Biobank and Women's Health Initiative with complete reproductive history and LTL measurements were included. Primary analyses tested the association between age at menopause and LTL using multivariable-adjusted linear regression. Secondary analyses stratified women by history of gynecologic surgery. Mendelian randomization was used to infer causal relationships between LTL and age at natural menopause. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression and mediation analyses tested the joint associations of premature menopause and LTL with incident coronary artery disease. RESULTS: This study included 130 254 postmenopausal women (UK Biobank: n=122 224; Women's Health Initiative: n=8030), of whom 4809 (3.7%) had experienced menopause before age 40. Earlier menopause was associated with shorter LTL (meta-analyzed ß=-0.02 SD/5 years of earlier menopause [95% CI, -0.02 to -0.01]; P=7.2×10-12). This association was stronger and significant in both cohorts for women with natural/spontaneous menopause (meta-analyzed ß=-0.04 SD/5 years of earlier menopause [95% CI, -0.04 to -0.03]; P<2.2×10-16) and was independent of hormone therapy use. Mendelian randomization supported a causal association of shorter genetically predicted LTL with earlier age at natural menopause. LTL and age at menopause were independently associated with incident coronary artery disease, and mediation analyses indicated small but significant mediation effects of LTL in the association of menopausal age with coronary artery disease. CONCLUSIONS: Earlier age at menopause is associated with shorter LTL, especially among women with natural menopause. Accelerated telomere shortening may contribute to the heightened cardiovascular risk associated with premature menopause.

Birth Weight Is Associated With Clonal Hematopoiesis of Indeterminate Potential and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Adulthood.

Background High and low birth weight are independently associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk in adulthood. Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), the age-related clonal expansion of hematopoietic cells with preleukemic somatic mutations, predicts incident cardiovascular disease independent of traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Whether birth weight predicts development of CHIP later in life is unknown. Methods and Results A total of 221 047 adults enrolled in the UK Biobank with whole exome sequences and self-reported birth weight were analyzed. Of those, 22 030 (11.5%) had low (<2.5 kg) and 29 292 (14.7%) high birth weight (>4.0 kg). CHIP prevalence was higher among participants with low (6.0%, P=0.049) and high (6.3%, P<0.001) versus normal birth weight (5.7%, ref.). Multivariable-adjusted logistic regression analyses demonstrated that each 1-kg increase in birth weight was associated with a 3% increased risk of CHIP (odds ratio, 1.03 [95% CI, 1.00-1.06]; P=0.04), driven by a stronger association observed between birth weight and DNMT3A CHIP (odds ratio, 1.04 per 1-kg increase [95% CI, 1.01-1.08]; P=0.02). Mendelian randomization analyses supported a causal relationship of longer gestational age at delivery with DNMT3A CHIP. Multivariable Cox regression demonstrated that CHIP was independently and additively associated with incident cardiovascular disease or death across birth weight groups, with highest absolute risks in those with CHIP plus high or low birth weight. Conclusions Higher birth weight is associated with increased risk of developing CHIP in midlife, especially DNMT3A CHIP. These findings identify a novel risk factor for CHIP and provide insights into the relationships among early-life environment, CHIP, cancer, and cardiovascular disease.

Clonal Hematopoiesis of Indeterminate Potential Predicts Adverse Outcomes in Patients With Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP)-the age-related clonal expansion of blood stem cells with leukemia-associated mutations-is a novel cardiovascular risk factor. Whether CHIP remains prognostic in individuals with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is less clear. OBJECTIVES: This study tested whether CHIP predicts adverse outcomes in individuals with established ASCVD. METHODS: Individuals aged 40 to 70 years from the UK Biobank with established ASCVD and available whole-exome sequences were analyzed. The primary outcome was a composite of ASCVD events and all-cause mortality. Associations of any CHIP (variant allele fraction ≥2%), large CHIP clones (variant allele fraction ≥10%), and the most commonly mutated driver genes (DNMT3A, TET2, ASXL1, JAK2, PPM1D/TP53 [DNA damage repair genes], and SF3B1/SRSF2/U2AF1 [spliceosome genes]) with incident outcomes were compared using unadjusted and multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. RESULTS: Of 13,129 individuals (median age: 63 years) included, 665 (5.1%) had CHIP. Over a median follow-up of 10.8 years, any CHIP and large CHIP at baseline were associated with adjusted HRs of 1.23 (95% CI: 1.10-1.38; P < 0.001) and 1.34 (95% CI: 1.17-1.53; P < 0.001), respectively, for the primary outcome. TET2 and spliceosome CHIP, especially large clones, were most strongly associated with adverse outcomes (large TET2 CHIP: HR: 1.89; 95% CI: 1.40-2.55; P <0.001; large spliceosome CHIP: HR: 3.02; 95% CI: 1.95-4.70; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: CHIP is independently associated with adverse outcomes in individuals with established ASCVD, with especially high risks observed in TET2 and SF3B1/SRSF2/U2AF1 CHIP.

Integrative polygenic risk score improves the prediction accuracy of complex traits and diseases.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are an emerging tool to predict the clinical phenotypes and outcomes of individuals. Validation and transferability of existing PRS across independent datasets and diverse ancestries are limited, which hinders the practical utility and exacerbates health disparities. We propose PRSmix, a framework that evaluates and leverages the PRS corpus of a target trait to improve prediction accuracy, and PRSmix+, which incorporates genetically correlated traits to better capture the human genetic architecture. We applied PRSmix to 47 and 32 diseases/traits in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. PRSmix demonstrated a mean prediction accuracy improvement of 1.20-fold (95% CI: [1.10; 1.3]; P-value = 9.17 × 10-5) and 1.19-fold (95% CI: [1.11; 1.27]; P-value = 1.92 × 10-6), and PRSmix+ improved the prediction accuracy by 1.72-fold (95% CI: [1.40; 2.04]; P-value = 7.58 × 10-6) and 1.42-fold (95% CI: [1.25; 1.59]; P-value = 8.01 × 10-7) in European and South Asian ancestries, respectively. Compared to the previously established cross-trait-combination method with scores from pre-defined correlated traits, we demonstrated that our method can improve prediction accuracy for coronary artery disease up to 3.27-fold (95% CI: [2.1; 4.44]; P-value after FDR correction = 2.6 × 10-4). Our method provides a comprehensive framework to benchmark and leverage the combined power of PRS for maximal performance in a desired target population.

Sex-Specific Survival Bias and Interaction Modeling in Coronary Artery Disease Risk Prediction.

BACKGROUND: The 10-year Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease risk score is the standard approach to predict risk of incident cardiovascular events, and recently, addition of coronary artery disease (CAD) polygenic scores has been evaluated. Although age and sex strongly predict the risk of CAD, their interaction with genetic risk prediction has not been systematically examined. This study performed an extensive evaluation of age and sex effects in genetic CAD risk prediction. METHODS: The population-based Norwegian HUNT2 (Trøndelag Health Study 2) cohort of 51 036 individuals was used as the primary dataset. Findings were replicated in the UK Biobank (372 410 individuals). Models for 10-year CAD risk were fitted using Cox proportional hazards, and Harrell concordance index, sensitivity, and specificity were compared. RESULTS: Inclusion of age and sex interactions of CAD polygenic score to the prediction models increased the C-index and sensitivity by accounting for nonadditive effects of CAD polygenic score and likely countering the observed survival bias in the baseline. The sensitivity for females was lower than males in all models including genetic information. We identified a total of 82.6% of incident CAD cases by using a 2-step approach: (1) Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease risk score (74.1%) and (2) the CAD polygenic score interaction model for those in low clinical risk (additional 8.5%). CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the importance and complexity of genetic risk in predicting CAD. There is a need for modeling age- and sex-interaction terms with polygenic scores to optimize detection of individuals at high risk, those who warrant preventive interventions. Sex-specific studies are needed to understand and estimate CAD risk with genetic information.