The global decline in the sensitivity of vegetation productivity to precipitation from 2001 to 2018.

The sensitivity of vegetation productivity to precipitation (Sppt ) is a key metric for understanding the variations in vegetation productivity under changing precipitation and predicting future changes in ecosystem functions. However, a comprehensive assessment of Sppt over all the global land is lacking. Here, we investigated spatial patterns and temporal changes of Sppt across the global land from 2001 to 2018 with multiple streams of satellite observations. We found consistent spatial patterns of Sppt with different satellite products: Sppt was highest in dry regions while low in humid regions. Grassland and shrubland showed the highest Sppt , and evergreen needle-leaf forest and wetland showed the lowest. Temporally, Sppt showed a generally declining trend over the past two decades (p < .05), yet with clear spatial heterogeneities. The decline in Sppt was especially noticeable in North America and Europe, likely due to the increase in precipitation. In central Russia and Australia, however, Sppt showed an increasing trend. Biome-wise, most ecosystem types exhibited significant decrease in Sppt , while grassland, evergreen broadleaf forest, and mixed forest showed slight increases or non-significant changes in Sppt . Our finding of the overall decline in Sppt implies a potential stabilization mechanism for ecosystem productivity under climate change. However, the revealed Sppt increase for some regions and ecosystem types, in particular global grasslands, suggests that grasslands might be increasingly vulnerable to climatic variability with continuing global climate change.

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Global changes have a profound impact on ecosystems. If the disturbance caused by global change exceeds a certain degree, ecosystem resilience will be reduced, extreme events will be frequent, and ecosystem services will be degraded or even lost. Quantifying the risks of global change and developing appropriate adaptation strategies is an important way to deal with the risks of global change. Global change may reduce ecosystem resilience, leading to increased vulnerability and the risk of ecosystem degradation. The risk of ecosystem degradation is currently quantified mainly by the safe operating space assessment method based on planetary boundary theory. Understanding the concepts of ecosystem resilience, vulnerability, planetary boundaries, and safe operating spaces and their relationships is an important prerequisite for addressing the risks of global change. By summarizing the relevant theories of ecosystem vulnerability, we combined the concepts related to ecosystem resilience and vulnerability, global change risk and human adaptation, proposed a conceptual framework of ecosystem global change risk and human adaptation based on the vulnerability theory. Based on the logic of this proposed framework, we successively introduced the characteristics and mechanism of global change interference on ecosystem vulnerability, elaborated the assessment theories and methods of ecosystem vulnerability, and how to adopt human adaptation measures to alleviate the risk of global changes, aiming to provide ideas for coping with the risk of global change.