Navigating Data Uncertainty and Modeling Assumptions in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment in an Informal Settlement in Kampala, Uganda.

Decision-makers in developing communities often lack credible data to inform decisions related to water, sanitation, and hygiene. Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA), which quantifies pathogen-related health risks across exposure routes, can be informative; however, the utility of QMRA for decision-making is often undermined by data gaps. This work integrates QMRA, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, and household surveys in Bwaise, Kampala (Uganda) to characterize the implications of censored data management, identify sources of uncertainty, and incorporate risk perceptions to improve the suitability of QMRA for informal settlements or similar settings. In Bwaise, drinking water, hand rinse, and soil samples were collected from 45 households and supplemented with data from 844 surveys. Quantified pathogen (adenovirus, Campylobacter jejuni, and Shigella spp./EIEC) concentrations were used with QMRA to model infection risks from exposure through drinking water, hand-to-mouth contact, and soil ingestion. Health risks were most sensitive to pathogen data, hand-to-mouth contact frequency, and dose-response models (particularly C. jejuni). When managing censored data, results from upper limits of detection, half of limits of detection, and uniform distributions returned similar results, which deviated from lower limits of detection and maximum likelihood estimation imputation approaches. Finally, risk perceptions (e.g., it is unsafe to drink directly from a water source) were identified to inform risk management.

Navigating Multidimensional Social-Ecological System Trade-Offs across Sanitation Alternatives in an Urban Informal Settlement.

Urban growth in low- and middle-income countries has intensified the need to expand sanitation infrastructure, especially in informal settlements. Sanitation approaches for these settings remain understudied, particularly regarding multidimensional social-ecological outcomes. Guided by a conceptual framework (developed in parallel with this study) re-envisioning sanitation as a human-derived resource system, here we characterize existing and alternative sanitation scenarios in an informal settlement in Kampala, Uganda. Combining two core research approaches (household survey analysis, process modeling), we elucidate factors associated with user satisfaction and evaluate each scenario's resource recovery potential, economic implications, and environmental impacts. We find that existing user satisfaction is associated with factors including cleaning frequency, sharing, and type of toilets, and we demonstrate that alternative sanitation systems may offer multidimensional improvements over existing latrines, drying beds, and lagoons. Transitioning to anaerobic treatment could recover energy while reducing overall net costs by 26-65% and greenhouse gas emissions by 38-59%. Alternatively, replacing pit latrines with container-based facilities greatly improves recovery potential in most cases (e.g., a 2- to 4-fold increase for nitrogen) and reduces emissions by 46-79%, although costs increase. Overall, this work illustrates how our conceptual framework can guide empirical research, offering insight into sanitation for informal settlements and more sustainable resource systems.