Evolving relationship of Nares Strait ice arches on sea ice along the Strait and the North Water, the Arctic's most productive polynya.

Nares Strait, the waterway that separates northwest Greenland from Ellesmere Island, is a major pathway along which sea ice leaves the Arctic, including the planet's oldest and thickest sea ice that is experiencing an accelerated loss. Ice arches that develop during the winter at the Strait's northern or southern terminus can remain stable for months at a time during which the transport of sea ice ceases. The Arctic's most productive polynya, the North Water (NOW) or Pikialasorsuaq (West Greenlandic for 'great upwelling') forms at the Strait's southern end. There is evidence that a warming climate and the concomitant thinning of Arctic sea ice is weakening the arches and it has been proposed that this may impact the stability of NOW and the complex ecosystem that it sustains. Here we employ a categorization of recent winters with respect to the presence or absence of ice arches to explore their impact on sea ice along the Strait and over the NOW. We find that winters during which a southern ice arch is absent are associated with a reduced and thinner ice cover along the Strait with ice conditions over the NOW similar to that during winters with a southern arch. In winters, without a southern arch, there is also an acceleration of the winds along the Strait that contributes to the presence of reduced ice cover. Ocean color remote sensing data suggests that current levels of primary productivity over the NOW are independent of the presence or absence of an ice arch. The results suggest more research is needed to assess the stability of the NOW, with respect to reduced ice cover and primary productivity, in a future where ice arches cease to form along Nares Strait.

Anomalous collapses of Nares Strait ice arches leads to enhanced export of Arctic sea ice.

The ice arches that usually develop at the northern and southern ends of Nares Strait play an important role in modulating the export of Arctic Ocean multi-year sea ice. The Arctic Ocean is evolving towards an ice pack that is younger, thinner, and more mobile and the fate of its multi-year ice is becoming of increasing interest. Here, we use sea ice motion retrievals from Sentinel-1 imagery to report on the recent behavior of these ice arches and the associated ice fluxes. We show that the duration of arch formation has decreased over the past 20 years, while the ice area and volume fluxes along Nares Strait have both increased. These results suggest that a transition is underway towards a state where the formation of these arches will become atypical with a concomitant increase in the export of multi-year ice accelerating the transition towards a younger and thinner Arctic ice pack.