Differential health impact of intervention programs for time-varying disease risk: a measles vaccination modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Dynamic modeling is commonly used to evaluate direct and indirect effects of interventions on infectious disease incidence. The risk of secondary outcomes (e.g., death) attributable to infection may depend on the underlying disease incidence targeted by the intervention. Consequently, the impact of interventions (e.g., the difference in vaccination and no-vaccination scenarios) on secondary outcomes may not be proportional to the reduction in disease incidence. Here, we illustrate the estimation of the impact of vaccination on measles mortality, where case fatality ratios (CFRs) are a function of dynamically changing measles incidence. METHODS: We used a previously published model of measles CFR that depends on incidence and vaccine coverage to illustrate the effects of (1) assuming higher CFR in "no-vaccination" scenarios, (2) time-varying CFRs over the past, and (3) time-varying CFRs in future projections on measles impact estimation. We used modeled CFRs in alternative scenarios to estimate measles deaths from 2000 to 2030 in 112 low- and middle-income countries using two models of measles transmission: Pennsylvania State University (PSU) and DynaMICE. We evaluated how different assumptions on future vaccine coverage, measles incidence, and CFR levels in "no-vaccination" scenarios affect the estimation of future deaths averted by measles vaccination. RESULTS: Across 2000-2030, when CFRs are separately estimated for the "no-vaccination" scenario, the measles deaths averted estimated by PSU increased from 85.8% with constant CFRs to 86.8% with CFRs varying 2000-2018 and then held constant or 85.9% with CFRs varying across the entire time period and by DynaMICE changed from 92.0 to 92.4% or 91.9% in the same scenarios, respectively. By aligning both the "vaccination" and "no-vaccination" scenarios with time-variant measles CFR estimates, as opposed to assuming constant CFRs, the number of deaths averted in the vaccination scenarios was larger in historical years and lower in future years. CONCLUSIONS: To assess the consequences of health interventions, impact estimates should consider the effect of "no-intervention" scenario assumptions on model parameters, such as measles CFR, in order to project estimated impact for alternative scenarios according to intervention strategies and investment decisions.

Non-opioid recreational drug use and a prolonged HIV outbreak among men who have sex with men in Taiwan: An incident case-control study, 2006-2015.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Limited data are available on the role of illicit non-injecting drug use in a prolonged HIV outbreak that predominantly affected men who have sex with men (MSM) in Taiwan since 2006. We aimed to assess associations between specific types of drug use and incident HIV infections in this outbreak. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective case-control study among MSM clients at voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) service at National Taiwan University Hospital (Taipei, Taiwan). We used BED IgG-capture enzyme immunoassay to identify incident HIV infection (cases), individually matched to HIV-negative MSM clients (controls) by HIV testing date. We used a structured questionnaire to obtain the information on illicit drug use and sexual risk behaviors. RESULTS: From a total of 15,305 MSM client visits during 2006-2015, 387 cases were matched to 1012 controls. Use of inhaled nitrites (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.1), MDMA (aOR 2.9), amphetamines (aOR 1.6), and ketamine (aOR 1.5) were independently associated with incident HIV infection. Polydrug (≥2 drugs) use was associated with the highest risk (aOR 4.3; 95% CI 2.6-7.2). While the proportion of MSM VCT clients who reported use of any recreational drug remained stable during 2006-2015 (average: 9.7%, P: 0.38), there was a shift in specific types of drug use, from MDMA/ketamine to inhaled nitrites/amphetamine, after 2011 (all Ps < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Non-opioid recreational drugs use is associated with incident HIV infection in this prolonged HIV outbreak. There is an urgent need to formulate an effective public health response to mitigate the risk.

Effect of the suspension of the J&J COVID-19 vaccine on vaccine hesitancy in the United States.

On April 13, 2021, U.S. authorities announced an investigation into potential adverse events associated with the Johnson & Johnson (Janssen, J&J) COVID-19 vaccine and recommended "a pause in the use of this vaccine out of an abundance of caution." We examined whether public attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccination shifted after this recommended suspension using an interrupted time series with data from the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey, which was fielded bi-weekly between January 6 and April 26, 2021. We found no significant changes in trends of the proportion of the U.S. adult population hesitant about getting a COVID-19 vaccine, but a significant increase in concerns about safety and efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines among the already hesitant population.

Multiseptate gallbladder: A case report and literature review.

RATIONALE: Multiseptate gallbladder (MSG) is a rare congenital gallbladder anomaly. Between 1963 and June 2021, only 56 cases were reported. There is currently no treatment guideline for pediatric or adult cases of MSG. PATIENT CONCERNS: A 14-year-old woman visited our out-patient clinic in September 2020 for epigastric pain that last for 6 months. Honeycomb appearance of the gallbladder was noted under ultrasonography. DIAGNOSIS: The patient was diagnosed with MSG. The diagnosis was confirmed through computed tomography and magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography. INTERVENTIONS: Cholecystectomy was performed. OUTCOMES: Epigastric pain showed limited improvement after the surgery. Since she was diagnosed with gastritis at the same time, a proton-pump inhibitor was prescribed. Epigastric pain was eventually resolved. LESSONS: MSG cases can undergo cholecystectomy and show good recovery without complications. However, concomitant treatment may be required to resolve in the presence of other symptoms such as epigastric pain.