Associations of Testosterone and Related Hormones With All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality and Incident Cardiovascular Disease in Men : Individual Participant Data Meta-analyses.

BACKGROUND: Whether circulating sex hormones modulate mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in aging men is controversial. PURPOSE: To clarify associations of sex hormones with these outcomes. DATA SOURCES: Systematic literature review to July 2019, with bridge searches to March 2024. STUDY SELECTION: Prospective cohort studies of community-dwelling men with sex steroids measured using mass spectrometry and at least 5 years of follow-up. DATA EXTRACTION: Independent variables were testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), luteinizing hormone (LH), dihydrotestosterone (DHT), and estradiol concentrations. Primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, CVD death, and incident CVD events. Covariates included age, body mass index, marital status, alcohol consumption, smoking, physical activity, hypertension, diabetes, creatinine concentration, ratio of total to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and lipid medication use. DATA SYNTHESIS: Nine studies provided individual participant data (IPD) (255 830 participant-years). Eleven studies provided summary estimates (n = 24 109). Two-stage random-effects IPD meta-analyses found that men with baseline testosterone concentrations below 7.4 nmol/L (<213 ng/dL), LH concentrations above 10 IU/L, or estradiol concentrations below 5.1 pmol/L had higher all-cause mortality, and those with testosterone concentrations below 5.3 nmol/L (<153 ng/dL) had higher CVD mortality risk. Lower SHBG concentration was associated with lower all-cause mortality (median for quintile 1 [Q1] vs. Q5, 20.6 vs. 68.3 nmol/L; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.85 [95% CI, 0.77 to 0.95]) and lower CVD mortality (adjusted HR, 0.81 [CI, 0.65 to 1.00]). Men with lower baseline DHT concentrations had higher risk for all-cause mortality (median for Q1 vs. Q5, 0.69 vs. 2.45 nmol/L; adjusted HR, 1.19 [CI, 1.08 to 1.30]) and CVD mortality (adjusted HR, 1.29 [CI, 1.03 to 1.61]), and risk also increased with DHT concentrations above 2.45 nmol/L. Men with DHT concentrations below 0.59 nmol/L had increased risk for incident CVD events. LIMITATIONS: Observational study design, heterogeneity among studies, and imputation of missing data. CONCLUSION: Men with low testosterone, high LH, or very low estradiol concentrations had increased all-cause mortality. SHBG concentration was positively associated and DHT concentration was nonlinearly associated with all-cause and CVD mortality. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Medical Research Future Fund, Government of Western Australia, and Lawley Pharmaceuticals. (PROSPERO: CRD42019139668).

Predicting Adverse Outcomes Following Catheter Ablation Treatment for Atrial Flutter/Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND & AIM: To develop prognostic survival models for predicting adverse outcomes after catheter ablation treatment for non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) and/or atrial flutter (AFL). METHODS: We used a linked dataset including hospital administrative data, prescription medicine claims, emergency department presentations, and death registrations of patients in New South Wales, Australia. The cohort included patients who received catheter ablation for AF and/or AFL. Traditional and deep survival models were trained to predict major bleeding events and a composite of heart failure, stroke, cardiac arrest, and death. RESULTS: Out of a total of 3,285 patients in the cohort, 177 (5.3%) experienced the composite outcome-heart failure, stroke, cardiac arrest, death-and 167 (5.1%) experienced major bleeding events after catheter ablation treatment. Models predicting the composite outcome had high-risk discrimination accuracy, with the best model having a concordance index >0.79 at the evaluated time horizons. Models for predicting major bleeding events had poor risk discrimination performance, with all models having a concordance index <0.66. The most impactful features for the models predicting higher risk were comorbidities indicative of poor health, older age, and therapies commonly used in sicker patients to treat heart failure and AF and AFL. DISCUSSION: Diagnosis and medication history did not contain sufficient information for precise risk prediction of experiencing major bleeding events. Predicting the composite outcome yielded promising results, but future research is needed to validate the usefulness of these models in clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: Machine learning models for predicting the composite outcome have the potential to enable clinicians to identify and manage high-risk patients following catheter ablation for AF and AFL proactively.

Six-minute walk test distance at time of hospital discharge is strongly and independently associated with all-cause mortality following cardiac surgery.

We investigated the impact of distance covered in the six-minute walk test (6mWT) before being discharged from the hospital after cardiac surgery on the risk of all-cause mortality. Our study included 1127 patients who underwent cardiac surgery and then took part in a standardised physiotherapist-supervised inpatient rehabilitation programme during 2007-2017. The percentage of the predicted 6mWT distance, and the lower limit of normal distance was calculated based on individual patients' age, sex, and body mass index. We used Cox regression with adjustment for confounders to determine multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality. Over a median follow-up period of 6.4 (IQR: 3.5-9.2) years, 15% (n = 169) patients died. We observed a strong and independent inverse association between 6mWT distance and mortality, with every 10 m increase in distance associated to a 4% reduction in mortality (HR: 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.98, P < 0.001). Those in the top tertile for predicted 6mWT performance had a 49% reduced risk of mortality (HR: 0.51, 95% CI 0.33-0.79) compared to those in the bottom tertile. Patients who met or exceeded the minimum normal 6mWT distance had 36% lower mortality risk (HR: 0.64, 95% CI 0.45-0.92) compared to those who did not meet this benchmark. Subgroup analysis showed that combined CABG and valve surgery patients walked less in the 6mWT compared to those undergoing isolated CABG or valve surgeries, with a significant association between 6mWT and mortality observed in the isolated procedure groups only. In conclusion, the longer the distance covered in the 6mWT before leaving the hospital, the lower the risk of mortality.

Factors Associated With Circulating Sex Hormones in Men : Individual Participant Data Meta-analyses.

BACKGROUND: Various factors modulate circulating testosterone in men, affecting interpretation of testosterone measurements. PURPOSE: To clarify factors associated with variations in sex hormone concentrations. DATA SOURCES: Systematic literature searches (to July 2019). STUDY SELECTION: Prospective cohort studies of community-dwelling men with total testosterone measured using mass spectrometry. DATA EXTRACTION: Individual participant data (IPD) (9 studies; n = 21 074) and aggregate data (2 studies; n = 4075). Sociodemographic, lifestyle, and health factors and concentrations of total testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), luteinizing hormone (LH), dihydrotestosterone, and estradiol were extracted. DATA SYNTHESIS: Two-stage random-effects IPD meta-analyses found a nonlinear association of testosterone with age, with negligible change among men aged 17 to 70 years (change per SD increase about the midpoint, -0.27 nmol/L [-7.8 ng/dL] [CI, -0.71 to 0.18 nmol/L {-20.5 to 5.2 ng/dL}]) and decreasing testosterone levels with age for men older than 70 years (-1.55 nmol/L [-44.7 ng/dL] [CI, -2.05 to -1.06 nmol/L {-59.1 to -30.6 ng/dL}]). Testosterone was inversely associated with body mass index (BMI) (change per SD increase, -2.42 nmol/L [-69.7 ng/dL] [CI, -2.70 to -2.13 nmol/L {-77.8 to -61.4 ng/dL}]). Testosterone concentrations were lower for men who were married (mean difference, -0.57 nmol/L [-16.4 ng/dL] [CI, -0.89 to -0.26 nmol/L {-25.6 to -7.5 ng/dL}]); undertook at most 75 minutes of vigorous physical activity per week (-0.51 nmol/L [-14.7 ng/dL] [CI, -0.90 to -0.13 nmol/L {-25.9 to -3.7 ng/dL}]); were former smokers (-0.34 nmol/L [-9.8 ng/dL] [CI, -0.55 to -0.12 nmol/L {-15.9 to -3.5 ng/dL}]); or had hypertension (-0.53 nmol/L [-15.3 ng/dL] [CI, -0.82 to -0.24 nmol/L {-23.6 to -6.9 ng/dL}]), cardiovascular disease (-0.35 nmol/L [-10.1 ng/dL] [CI, -0.55 to -0.15 nmol/L {-15.9 to -4.3 ng/dL}]), cancer (-1.39 nmol/L [-40.1 ng/dL] [CI, -1.79 to -0.99 nmol/L {-51.6 to -28.5 ng/dL}]), or diabetes (-1.43 nmol/L [-41.2 ng/dL] [CI, -1.65 to -1.22 nmol/L {-47.6 to -35.2 ng/dL}]). Sex hormone-binding globulin was directly associated with age and inversely associated with BMI. Luteinizing hormone was directly associated with age in men older than 70 years. LIMITATION: Cross-sectional analysis, heterogeneity between studies and in timing of blood sampling, and imputation for missing data. CONCLUSION: Multiple factors are associated with variation in male testosterone, SHBG, and LH concentrations. Reduced testosterone and increased LH concentrations may indicate impaired testicular function after age 70 years. Interpretation of individual testosterone measurements should account particularly for age older than 70 years, obesity, diabetes, and cancer. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Medical Research Future Fund, Government of Western Australia, and Lawley Pharmaceuticals. (PROSPERO: CRD42019139668).

Comparative effect of varenicline and nicotine patches on preventing repeat cardiovascular events.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the comparative effectiveness of postdischarge use of varenicline versus prescription nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) patches for the prevention of recurrent cardiovascular events and mortality and whether this association differs by sex. METHODS: Our cohort study used routinely collected hospital, pharmaceutical dispensing and mortality data for residents of New South Wales, Australia. We included patients hospitalised for a major cardiovascular event or procedure 2011-2017, who were dispensed varenicline or prescription NRT patches within 90day postdischarge. Exposure was defined using an approach analogous to intention to treat. Using inverse probability of treatment weighting with propensity scores to account for confounding, we estimated adjusted HRs for major cardiovascular events (MACEs), overall and by sex. We fitted an additional model with a sex-treatment interaction term to determine if treatment effects differed between males and females. RESULTS: Our cohort of 844 varenicline users (72% male, 75% <65 years) and 2446 prescription NRT patch users (67% male, 65% <65 years) were followed for a median of 2.93 years and 2.34 years, respectively. After weighting, there was no difference in risk of MACE for varenicline relative to prescription NRT patches (aHR 0.99, 95% CI 0.82 to 1.19). We found no difference (interaction p=0.098) between males (aHR 0.92, 95% CI 0.73 to 1.16) and females (aHR 1.30, 95% CI 0.92 to 1.84), although the effect among females deviated from the null. CONCLUSION: We found no difference between varenicline and prescription NRT patches in the risk of recurrent MACE. These results should be considered when determining the most appropriate choice of smoking cessation pharmacotherapy.

Trends and Outcomes for Percutaneous Coronary Intervention and Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery in New South Wales from 2008 to 2019.

Risk profiles are changing for patients who undergo percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). In Australia, little is known of the nature of these changes in contemporary practice and of the impact on patient outcomes. We identified all CABG (n = 40,805) and PCI (n = 142,399) procedures in patients aged ≥18 years in New South Wales, Australia, during 2008 to 2019. Between 2008 and 2019, the age- and gender-standardized revascularization rate increased by 20% (from 267/100,000 to 320/100,000 population) for all revascularizations. The increase in revascularization was particularly driven by a 35% increase (from 194/100,000 to 261/100,000) in PCI, whereas the rate of CABG decreased by 20% (from 73/100,000 to 59/100,000). Mean age and the prevalence of co-morbidities (especially diabetes and atrial fibrillation) increased for patients with PCI in more recent years but remained consistently lower than for patients with CABG. CABGs performed in patients presenting with a non-ST-segment-elevation acute coronary syndrome halved from 34.3% to 18.7% during the study period, whereas PCIs in this group decreased from 36.5% to 29.6%. Risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality decreased by 7.5 deaths/1,000 procedures per month for CABG but remained unchanged for PCI. Risk-adjusted readmission rates were consistently higher for CABG than for PCI and did not change significantly over time. In conclusion, we observed a dramatic shift over time from CABG to PCI as the revascularization procedure of choice, with the patient base for PCI extending to older and sicker patients. There was a large decrease in mortality after CABG, whereas mortality after PCI remained unchanged.

Diagnostic accuracy of linked administrative data for dementia diagnosis in community-dwelling older men in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Routinely collected health administrative data can be used to estimate the prevalence or incidence of dementia at a population level but can be inaccurate. This study aimed to examine the accuracy of hospital and death data for diagnosing dementia compared with a clinical diagnosis in community dwelling older men in Australia. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of the Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project (CHAMP) in Sydney, Australia. Of the 1705 men aged ≥70 years in the CHAMP study, 1400 had available linked administrative data records from 1 year prior to 1 year post the date of clinical dementia diagnosis. The primary outcome was the accuracy of dementia diagnosis using linked administrative data records compared to clinical dementia diagnosis. The linked data diagnosis was based on hospital and death records for the 1 year pre and post the clinical diagnosis. Clinical dementia diagnosis was a two-stage process with initial screening, followed by clinical assessment for those meeting a validated cut-off. A final clinical diagnosis of dementia based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th edition) criteria was reached by a consensus panel. RESULTS: Administrative data identified 28 participants as having dementia, compared to 88 identified through clinical assessment. Administrative data had a sensitivity of 20% (95% CI: 13-30%, 18/88), specificity of 99% (95% CI: 99-100%, 1301/1312), positive predictive value (PPV) of 62% (95% CI: 44-77%), negative predictive value of 95% (95% CI: 94-95%), positive likelihood ratio of 24.4 (95% CI: 11.9-50.0) and negative likelihood ratio of 0.80 (0.72-0.89). CONCLUSIONS: Administrative hospital and death data has limited accuracy for dementia diagnosis with poor sensitivity and PPV. The prevalence of dementia is likely underestimated using hospital and deaths data.

Uptake of prescription smoking cessation pharmacotherapies after hospitalization for major cardiovascular disease.

AIMS: We determined the prevalence of prescription smoking cessation pharmacotherapy (SCP) use after hospitalization for major cardiovascular disease (MCD) among people who smoke and whether this varies by sex. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a population-based cohort study including all people hospitalized in New South Wales, Australia, between July 2013 and December 2018 (2017 for private hospitals) with an MCD diagnosis. For patients who also had a diagnosis of current tobacco use, we used linked pharmaceutical dispensing records to identify prescription SCP dispensings within 90 days post-discharge. We determined the proportion who were dispensed an SCP within 90 days, overall and by type of SCP. We used logistic regression to estimate the odds of females being dispensed an SCP relative to males. Of the 150 758 patients hospitalized for an MCD, 20 162 (13.4%) had a current tobacco use diagnosis, 31% of whom were female. Of these, 11.3% (12.4% of females, 10.9% of males) received prescription SCP within 90 days post-discharge; 3.0% were dispensed varenicline, and 8.3% were dispensed nicotine replacement therapy patches. Females were more likely than males to be dispensed a prescription SCP [odds ratio (OR) 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.27)]; however, this was not maintained after adjusting for potential confounders (adjusted OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.94-1.15). CONCLUSION: Very few females and males who smoke use prescription SCPs after hospitalization for an MCD. The use of varenicline, the SCP with the highest efficacy, was particularly low. This represents a missed opportunity to increase smoking cessation in this high-risk population, thereby reducing their risk of recurrent cardiovascular events.

Differences in the pre-hospital management of women and men with stroke by emergency medical services in New South Wales.

OBJECTIVES: To examine whether pre-hospital emergency medical service care differs for women and men subsequently admitted to hospital with stroke. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Population-based cohort study; analysis of linked Admitted Patient Data Collection and NSW Ambulance data for people admitted to New South Wales hospitals with a principal diagnosis of stroke at separation, 1 July 2005 - 31 December 2018. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Emergency medical service assessments, protocols, and management for patients subsequently diagnosed with stroke, by sex. RESULTS: Of 202 231 people hospitalised with stroke (mean age, 73 [SD, 14] years; 98 599 women [51.0%]), 101 357 were conveyed to hospital by ambulance (50.1%). A larger proportion of women than men travelled by ambulance (52.4% v 47.9%; odds ratio [OR], 1.09; 95% CI, 1.07-1.11), but time between the emergency call and emergency department admission was similar for both sexes. The likelihood of being assessed as having a stroke (adjusted OR [aOR], 0.97; 95% CI, 0.93-1.01) or subarachnoid haemorrhage (aOR, 1.22; 95% CI, 0.73-2.03) was similar for women and men, but women under 70 years of age were less likely than men to be assessed as having a stroke (aOR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.82-0.97). Women were more likely than men to be assessed by paramedics as having migraine, other headache, anxiety, unconsciousness, hypertension, or nausea. Women were less likely than men to be managed according to the NSW Ambulance pre-hospital stroke care protocol (aOR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.92-0.97), but the likelihood of basic pre-hospital care was similar for both sexes (aOR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.99-1.04). CONCLUSION: Our large population-based study identified sex differences in pre-hospital management by emergency medical services of women and men admitted to hospital with stroke. Paramedics should receive training that improves the recognition of stroke symptoms in women.

Use of health and aged care services in Australia following hospital admission for myocardial infarction, stroke or heart failure.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD), including myocardial infarction (MI), stroke and heart failure (HF) are the leading cause of death amongst the older population worldwide. The aim of this study is to investigate trajectories of use of health and aged care services after hospital admission for MI, stroke or HF among community-dwelling people not previously receiving aged care services. METHODS: The study population comprised people aged 65+ years from the 45 and Up Study with linked records for hospital stays, aged care services and deaths for the period 2006-14. Among those with an index hospital admission for MI, stroke or HF, we developed Sankey plots to describe and visualize sequences and trajectories of service use (none, re-hospitalization, community care, residential care, death) in the 12 months following discharge. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs), for commencing community care and entering residential care (and the other outcomes) within 3, 6 and 12 months, compared to a matched group without MI, stroke or HF. RESULTS: Two thousand six hundred thirty-nine, two thousand five hundred and two thousand eight hundred seventy-three people had an index hospitalization for MI, stroke and HF, respectively. Within 3 months of hospital discharge, 16, 32 and 29%, respectively, commenced community care (multivariable-adjusted HRs: 1.26 (95%CI:1.18-1.35), 1.53 (95%CI:1.44-1.64) and 1.39 (95%CI:1.32-1.48)); and 7, 18 and 14%, respectively, entered residential care (HRs: 1.25 (95%CI:1.12-1.41), 2.65 (95%CI:2.42-2.91) and 1.50 (95%CI:1.37-1.65)). Likewise, 26, 15 and 28%, respectively, were rehospitalized within 3 months following discharge (multivariable-adjusted HRs: 4.78 (95%CI:4.31-5.32), 3.26 (95%CI:2.91-3.65) and 4.94 (95%CI:4.47-5.46)). CONCLUSIONS: Older people hospitalized for major CVD may be vulnerable to transition-related risks and have poor health trajectories, thus emphasizing the value of preventing such events and care strategies targeted towards this at-risk group.

Psychotropic medicine prescribing and polypharmacy for people with dementia entering residential aged care: the influence of changing general practitioners.

OBJECTIVE: To examine relationships between changing general practitioner after entering residential aged care and overall medicines prescribing (including polypharmacy) and that of psychotropic medicines in particular. DESIGN: Retrospective data linkage study. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: 45 and Up Study participants in New South Wales with dementia who were PBS concession card holders and entered permanent residential aged care during January 2010 - June 2014 and were alive six months after entry. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Inverse probability of treatment-weighted numbers of medicines dispensed to residents and proportions of residents dispensed antipsychotics, benzodiazepines, and antidepressants in the six months after residential care entry, by most frequent residential care GP category: usual (same as during two years preceding entry), known (another GP, but known to the resident), or new GP. RESULTS: Of 2250 new residents with dementia (mean age, 84.1 years; SD, 7.0 years; 1236 women [55%]), 625 most frequently saw their usual GPs (28%), 645 saw known GPs (29%), and 980 saw new GPs (44%). The increase in mean number of dispensed medicines after residential care entry was larger for residents with new GPs (+1.6 medicines; 95% CI, 1.4-1.9 medicines) than for those attended by their usual GPs (+0.7 medicines; 95% CI, 0.4-1.1 medicines; adjusted rate ratio, 2.42; 95% CI, 1.59-3.70). The odds of being dispensed antipsychotics (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.59; 95% CI, 1.18-2.12) or benzodiazepines (aOR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.25-2.30), but not antidepressants (aOR, 1.32; 95% CI, 0.98-1.77), were also higher for the new GP group. Differences between the known and usual GP groups were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Increases in medicine use and rates of psychotropic dispensing were higher for people with dementia who changed GP when they entered residential care. Facilitating continuity of GP care for new residents and more structured transfer of GP care may prevent potentially inappropriate initiation of psychotropic medicines.

Sex differences in emergency medical services management of patients with myocardial infarction: analysis of routinely collected data for over 110,000 patients.

Emergency medical services (EMS) activation is an integral component in managing individuals with myocardial infarction (MI). EMS play a crucial role in early MI symptom recognition, prompt transport to percutaneous coronary intervention centres and timely administration of management. The objective of this study was to examine sex differences in prehospital EMS care of patients hospitalized with Ml using data from a retrospective population-based cohort study of linked health administrative data for people with a hospital diagnosis of MI in Australia (2001-18).

Burden of cardiovascular diseases in older adults using aged care services.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in older adults using community and residential care services. METHODS: The study population comprised people aged 45+ from the 45 and Up Study (2006-09, n = 266,942) in Australia linked with records for hospital stays, aged care service and deaths for the period 2006-14. Follow-up time for each person was allocated to three categories of service use: no aged care, community care and residential care, with censoring at date of death. We calculated the prevalence at baseline and entry to aged care, and incidence rates for major CVD and six cardiovascular diagnoses, seven cardiovascular interventions (collectively CV interventions), cardiovascular-related intensive care unit stays and cardiovascular death. RESULTS: The prevalence of major CVD at entry into community care and residential care was 41% and 58% respectively. Incidence per 1,000 person-years of all major CVD hospitalisations and CV interventions, respectively, was 182.8 (95% CI: 180.0-185.8) and 37.0 (95% CI: 35.6-38.4) for people using community care, and 280.7 (95% CI: 272.2-289.4) and 11.7 (95% CI: 9.8-13.9) for people using residential care. Similar trends were observed for each of the CVD diagnoses and interventions. Crude incidence rates for cardiovascular deaths per 1,000 person-years were 1.4 (95% CI: 1.3-1.5) in no aged care, 13.3 (95% CI: 12.6-14.1) in community care, and 149.7 (95% CI: 144.4-155.2) in residential care. CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate the significant burden of CVD in people using both community-based and residential aged care services and highlights the importance of optimising cardiovascular care for older adults.

The impact of dementia on aged care service transitions in the last five years of life.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of dementia on aged care service use at end-of-life. METHODS: Our retrospective data linkage study in New South Wales, Australia, used survey data from participants in the 45 and Up Study who died between July 2011-June 2014 linked to routinely collected administrative data for 2006-2014. We investigated movement between aged care "states" (No Services, Home Care including Home Support and Low-and High-Level Home Care and Residential Care) in the last five years of life. The dementia cohort comprised decedents with a dementia diagnosis recorded in hospital records, death certificates or who had claims for dementia-specific medicines prior to death (n = 2,230). The comparison cohort were decedents with no dementia diagnosis, matched 1:1 on age-at-death, sex, income and location. RESULTS: Compared to those without dementia, people with dementia were more likely to: use home care (67 versus 60%, P < 0.001), enter residential care (72 versus 30%, P < 0.001) and stay longer in residential care (median 17.9 versus 12.7 months, P < 0.001). Five years before death, more people with dementia were within residential care (6 versus 4%; RR = 1.61, 95%CI = 1.23-2.10) and these rates diverged at the end-of-life (69 versus 28%, RR = 2.48, 95%CI = 2.30-2.66). Use of home-based care was higher among people with dementia five years from death (20 versus 17%; RR = 1.15, 95%CI = 1.02-1.30) but lower at end-of-life (13 versus 24%, RR = 0.55, 95%CI = 0.49-0.63). CONCLUSION: Dementia-specific aged care trajectories were dominated by residential care. Home care use declined towards end-of-life for people with dementia and may not be meeting their needs.

Measuring dementia incidence within a cohort of 267,153 older Australians using routinely collected linked administrative data.

To estimate dementia incidence rates using Australian administrative datasets and compare the characteristics of people identified with dementia across different datasets. This data linkage study used a cohort of 267,153 from the Australian 45 and Up Study. Participants completed a survey in 2006-2009 and subsequent dementia was identified through pharmaceutical claims, hospitalisations, aged care eligibility assessments, care needs at residential aged care entry and death certificates. Age-specific, and age-standardised incidence rates, incidence rate ratios and survival from first dementia diagnosis were estimated. Estimated age-standardised dementia incidence rates using all linked datasets was 16.8 cases per 1000 person years for people aged 65+. Comparing incidence rates to the global published rates suggested 77% of cases were identified but this varied by age with highest coverage among those aged 80-84 years (92%). Incidence rate ratios were inconsistent across datasets for: sex, socio-economic disadvantage, size of support network, marital status, functional limitations and diabetes. Median survival from first dementia diagnosis ranged from 1.80 years in the care needs dataset to 3.74 years in the pharmaceutical claims dataset. Characteristics of people identified with dementia in different administrative datasets reflect the factors that drive interaction with specific services; this may introduce bias in observational studies using a single data-source to identify dementia.

Comparison of clinical risk factors for incident fracture in obese and non-obese community-dwelling older men.

BACKGROUND: Obese older adults have higher bone mineral density (BMD), but other characteristics of obesity may predispose these individuals to fracture. We aimed to compare clinical risk factors for incident fracture in obese and non-obese older men. METHODS: Body mass index (BMI) and body fat percentage were assessed at baseline by anthropometry and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, respectively, in 1625 community-dwelling men aged ≥70 years. Categories for non-obese and obese were <30 kg/m2and ≥30 kg/m2 for BMI, and <30% and ≥30% for body fat percentage. Sociodemographic, medical, physical function and blood biochemistry parameters were collected at baseline. Self-reported incident fractures of any type and cause (excluding pathological fractures and fractures of hands, fingers, feet, toes and the skull) were confirmed by radiographic reports and recorded up to 9 years. Hip fractures were followed for 14 years using data linkage. RESULTS: Prevalence of obesity was 27% according to BMI and 44% according to body fat percentage. There were no differences in incidence of any fracture between non-obese and obese men by BMI (10.7 vs 9.3%, respectively; P > 0.05) or body fat percentage (10.2 vs 10.6%, respectively; P > 0.05). Significant interactions were observed demonstrating that dementia increased hazard for incident any and hip fracture in non-obese men (adjusted hazard ratio 7.08; 95% CI 3.27-15.36 and 8.36; 3.13-22.31, respectively) but not obese men. Past-year falls increased hazard for any fracture in obese men (2.86; 95% CI 1.60-5.10) but not non-obese men while higher luteinizing hormone concentrations reduced hazard for hip fracture in obese men (0.91; 0.85-0.97 per IU/L) but not non-obese men. CONCLUSIONS: In community-dwelling older men, obesity does not protect against incident fracture. Assessments of falls history and gonadotrophin levels, in addition to established clinical risk factors for fracture, may contribute to improvements in fracture prediction in obese older men.

Impact of Prior Home Care on Length of Stay in Residential Care for Australians With Dementia.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of home care on length-of-stay within residential care. DESIGN: A retrospective observational data-linkage study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: In total there were 3151 participants from the 45 and Up Study in New South Wales, Australia with dementia who entered residential care between 2010 and 2014. METHODS: Survey data collected from 2006‒2009 were linked to administrative data for 2006‒2016. The highest level of home care a person accessed prior to residential care was defined as no home care, home support, low-level home care, and high-level home care. Multinomial logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards were used to investigate differences in activities of daily living, behavioral, and complex healthcare scales at entering residential care; and length-of-stay in residential care. RESULTS: People with prior high-level home care entered residential care needing higher assistance compared with the no home care group: activities of daily living [odds ratio (OR) 3.41, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.14‒5.44], behavior (OR 2.61, 95% CI 1.69‒4.03), and complex healthcare (OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.06‒3.84). They had a higher death rate, meaning shorter length-of-stay in residential care (<2 years after entry: hazard ratio 1.12; 95% CI 0.89‒1.42; 2-4 years: hazard ratio 1.49; 95% CI 1.01‒2.21). Those using low-level home care were less likely to enter residential care needing high assistance compared to the no home care group (activities of daily living: OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.45‒0.81; behavioral: OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.54‒0.95; complex healthcare: OR 0.51, 95% CI 0.33‒0.77). There was no difference between the home support and no home care groups. CONCLUSIONS: High-level home care prior to residential care may help those with dementia stay at home for longer, but the low-level care group entered residential care at low assistance levels, possibly signaling lack of informal care and barriers in accessing higher-level home care. IMPLICATIONS: Better transition options from low-level home care, including more timely availability of high-level care packages, may help people with dementia remain at home longer.

Branched Chain Amino Acids, Cardiometabolic Risk Factors and Outcomes in Older Men: The Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project.

Increased blood levels of branched chain amino acids (BCAAs) have been associated with cardiometabolic risk factors. Here, we studied 918 community-dwelling older men to determine the relationship between BCAAs and other amino acids with cardiometabolic risk factors, major cardiovascular endpoints (MACE), and mortality. BCAAs had robust associations with many adverse metabolic risk factors (increased glucose, insulin, Homeostatic Model Assessment for Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR), triglycerides; decreased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). However, paradoxically, participants with lower levels of BCAAs had greater mortality and MACE possibly because increasing age and frailty, both of which were associated with lower BCAA levels, are powerful risk factors for these outcomes in older people. Overall, amino acids that were lowest in frail subjects (BCAAs, α-aminobutyric acid [AABA], histidine, lysine, methionine, threonine, tyrosine) were inversely associated with mortality and MACE. In conclusion, BCAAs are biomarkers for important outcomes in older people including cardiometabolic risk factors, frailty, and mortality. In old age, frailty becomes a dominant risk factor for MACE and mortality.