Relative risks of COVID-19 fatality between the first and second waves of the pandemic in Ontario, Canada.

OBJECTIVES: To examine whether the case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 decreased over time and whether the COVID-19 testing rate is a driving factor for the changes if the CFR decreased. METHODS: Analyzing COVID-19 cases, deaths and tests in Ontario, Canada, we compared the CFR between the first wave and the second wave across 26 public health units in Ontario. We also explored whether a high testing rate was associated with a large CFR decrease. RESULTS: The first wave CFR ranged from 0.004 to 0.146, whereas the second wave CFR ranged from 0.003 to 0.034. The pooled RR estimate of second wave COVID-19 case fatality, compared with first wave, was 0.24 (95% CI: 0.19-0.32). Additionally, COVID-19 testing percentages were not associated with the estimated relative risk (P=0.246). CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 CFR decreased significantly in Ontario during the second wave, and COVID-19 testing was not a driving factor for this decrease.

Treatment patterns and survival in hepatocellular carcinoma in the United States and Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: Survival in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is lower in the USA than in Taiwan. Little is known about the extent to which differences in stage at diagnosis and treatment contribute to this difference. We examined treatment patterns and survival in HCC and analyzed factors driving the difference. METHODS: Using a uniform methodology, we identified patients aged 66 years and older with newly diagnosed HCC between 2004 and 2011 in the USA and Taiwan. We compared treatment within 6 months after HCC diagnosis and 2-year stage-specific survival between the two countries. RESULTS: Compared with patients in Taiwan (n = 32,987), patients in the USA (n = 7,003) were less likely to be diagnosed as stage IA (4% vs 8%) and II (13% vs 22%), or receive cancer-directed treatments (41% vs 58%; all p < .001). Stage-specific 2-year survival rates were lower in the USA than in Taiwan (stage IA: 57% vs 77%; stage IB: 38% vs 63%; stage II: 40% vs 57%, stage III: 14% vs 18%; stage IV: 4% vs 5%, respectively; all p < .001 except p = .018 for stage IV). Differences in age and sex (combined), stage, and receipt of treatment accounted for 3.8%, 17.0%, and 16.8% of the survival difference, respectively, leaving 62.5% unexplained. CONCLUSIONS: Differential stage at diagnosis and treatment were substantially associated with the survival difference, but approximately two-thirds of the difference remained unexplained. Identifying the main drivers of the difference could help improve HCC survival in the USA.

Associations Between End-of-Life Expenditures and Hospice Stay Length Vary by Clinical Condition and Expenditure Duration.

OBJECTIVES: Hospice use reduces costly aggressive end-of-life (EOL) care (eg, repeated hospitalizations, intensive care unit care, and emergency department visits). Nevertheless, associations between hospice stays and EOL expenditures in prior research have been inconsistent. We examined the differential associations between hospice stay duration and EOL expenditures among newly diagnosed patients with cancer, congestive heart failure (CHF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and dementia. METHODS: In the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare data, we identified 240 246 decedents diagnosed with the aforementioned conditions during 2001 to 2013. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to examine the differential associations between hospice length of services and EOL expenditures incurred during the last 90, 180, and 360 days of life. RESULTS: For the last 360 days of expenditures, hospice stays beyond 30 days were positively associated with expenditures for decedents with COPD, CHF, and dementia but were negatively associated for cancer decedents (all P<.001) after adjusting for demographic and medical covariates. In contrast, for the last 90 days of expenditures, hospice stay duration and expenditures were consistently negatively associated for each of the 4 patient disease groups. CONCLUSIONS: Longer hospice stays were associated with lower 360-day expenditures for cancer patients but higher expenditures for other patients. We recommend that Medicare hospice payment reforms take distinct disease trajectories into account. The relationship between expenditures and hospice stay length also depended on the measurement duration, such that measuring expenditures for the last 6 months of life or less overstates the cost-saving benefit of lengthy hospice stays.

Racial Differences in Health Care Transitions and Hospice Use at the End of Life.

Background: Although the fragmentation of end-of-life care has been well documented, previous research has not examined racial and ethnic differences in transitions in care and hospice use at the end of life. Design and Subjects: Retrospective cohort study among 649,477 Medicare beneficiaries who died between July 2011 and December 2011. Measurements: Sankey diagrams and heatmaps to visualize the health care transitions across race/ethnic groups. Among hospice enrollees, we examined racial/ethnic differences in hospice use patterns, including length of hospice enrollment and disenrollment rate. Results: The mean number of care transitions within the last six months of life was 2.9 transitions (standard deviation [SD] = 2.7) for whites, 3.4 transitions (SD = 3.2) for African Americans, 2.8 transitions (SD = 3.0) for Hispanics, and 2.4 transitions (SD = 2.7) for Asian Americans. After adjusting for age and sex, having at least four transitions was significantly more common for African Americans (39.2%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 38.8-39.6%) compared with whites (32.5%, 95% CI: 32.3-32.6%), and less common among Hispanics (31.2%, 95% CI: 30.4-32.0%), and Asian Americans (26.5%, 95% CI: 25.5-27.5%). Having no care transition was significantly more common for Asian Americans (33.0%, 95% CI: 32.0-34.1%) and Hispanics (28.8%, 95% CI: 28.0-29.6%), compared with African Americans (19.2%, 95% CI: 18.9-19.5%) and whites (18.9%, 95% CI: 18.8-19.0%). Among hospice users, whites, African Americans, and Hispanics had similar length of hospice enrollment, which was significantly longer than that of Asian Americans. Nonwhite patients were significantly more likely than white patients to experience hospice disenrollment. Conclusions: Racial/ethnic differences in patterns of end-of-life care are marked. Future studies to understand why such patterns exist are warranted.

Factors Associated With Hospices' Nonparticipation in Medicare's Hospice Compare Public Reporting Program.

BACKGROUND: To enhance the quality of hospice care and to facilitate consumers' choices, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) began the Hospice Quality Reporting Program, in which CMS posted the quality measures of participating hospices on its reporting website, Hospice Compare. Little is known about the participation rate and the types of nonparticipating hospices. OBJECTIVE: To examine the factors associated with hospices' nonparticipation in Hospice Compare. RESEARCH DESIGN: We analyzed data from the CMS 2016 Hospice Compare. "Nonparticipants" were those who did not submit any quality measure. With the data of the Provider of Service file, the Healthcare Cost Report Information System, and the Area Health Resources File, multivariate logistic regressions estimated the association between nonparticipants and hospice and market characteristics, including ownership, size, nurse staffing ratio, and market competition intensity. RESULTS: Among the 4123 certified hospices subject to penalty from nonparticipation, 259 did not participate in Hospice Compare. California, New Mexico, Texas, and Wyoming had participation rates lower than 80%. Hospices that were for-profit, had no accreditation, had few nurses per patient day, provided no inpatient care, and were located in competitive markets were less likely to participate than other hospices. CONCLUSIONS: Hospice Compare successfully motivated hospice in participating in the quality report program in most of states. For-profit hospices, hospices with less quality, and hospices located in competitive markets were less likely to participate. Further research is warranted to examine the quality of these nonparticipants, especially in the 4 states with a lower participation rate.

Regional Practice Patterns and Racial/Ethnic Differences in Intensity of End-of-Life Care.

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether regional practice patterns impact racial/ethnic differences in intensity of end-of-life care for cancer decedents. DATA SOURCES: The linked Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database. STUDY DESIGN: We classified hospital referral regions (HRRs) based on mean 6-month end-of-life care expenditures, which represented regional practice patterns. Using hierarchical generalized linear models, we examined racial/ethnic differences in the intensity of end-of-life care across levels of HRR expenditures. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: There was greater variation in intensity of end-of-life care among Hispanics, Asians, and whites in high-expenditure HRRs than in low-expenditure HRRs. CONCLUSIONS: Local practice patterns may influence racial/ethnic differences in end-of-life care.

Longer Periods Of Hospice Service Associated With Lower End-Of-Life Spending In Regions With High Expenditures.

Hospice use is expected to decrease end-of-life expenditures, yet evidence for its financial impact remains inconclusive. One potential explanation is that the use of hospice may produce differential cost-savings effects by region because of geographic variation in end-of-life spending patterns. We examined 103,745 elderly Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program Medicare database who died from cancer in 2004-11. We created quintiles by the adjusted mean end-of-life expenditures per hospital referral region (HRR), and we examined HRR-level variation in the association between length of hospice service and expenditures across quintiles. Longer periods of hospice service were associated with decreased end-of-life expenditures for patients residing in regions with high average expenditures but not for those in regions with low average expenditures. Hospice use accounted for 8 percent of the expenditure variation between the highest and the lowest spending quintiles, which demonstrates the powers and limitations of hospice use for saving on costs.

Association between Time since Cancer Diagnosis and Health-Related Quality of Life: A Population-Level Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between time since cancer diagnosis and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among cancer survivors in remission. METHODS: Analyzing data from 3,610 cancer survivors and 59,539 individuals without cancer in the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, we examined the relationship between time since cancer diagnosis and HRQOL, taking remission status into account and controlling for patients' demographic characteristics and comorbidities. HRQOL measurements included the six-dimensional health state short form (derived from 36-item short form health survey) (SF-6D) utility scores, the physical component summary score, and the mental component summary score. RESULTS: The relationship between time since cancer diagnosis and HRQOL varied substantially across cancer types. Compared with individuals without cancer, survivors of breast, prostate, or poor-prognosis cancer had statistically lower SF-6D scores within 2 years of diagnosis (-0.044, -0.062, and -0.088, respectively). Breast cancer survivors had SF-6D scores similar to those of individuals without cancer after 2 years, as did patients with poor-prognosis cancer after 5 years. Nevertheless, even after a period of 10 years, survivors of prostate or cervical cancer had a lower level of SF-6D scores (-0.027 and -0.042, respectively). The comparisons of physical health between cancer survivors and individuals without cancer were similar to those of SF-6D. In contrast, most cancer survivors did not experience poorer mental health; survivors of prostate or cervical cancer, however, had lower mental component summary scores after 10 years of diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The level of HRQOL among cancer survivors depends on time since cancer diagnosis and cancer type. Some cancer survivors have lower HRQOL after a decade of diagnosis, even in remission.

Health care utilization and health outcomes: a population study of Taiwan.

Facing escalating health care expenditures, the governments of countries with national health insurance programs are trying to control or even to reduce health care utilization. Little research has examined the effects of decreased health care utilization on health outcomes. Applying a natural experiment design to the Taiwan population between 2000 and 2004, which includes the 2003 SARS epidemic when an average 20% decline in health care utilization occurred, this study examines the association between a decline in health care utilization and health outcomes measured by cause-specific mortality rates. We analyse the monthly mortality rates caused by infectious diseases, cancer, diabetes mellitus, nervous system diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, heart and other vascular diseases, respiratory system diseases, digestive system diseases, genitourinary system diseases and accidents. Models control for age, sex, month and year effects. Results show the heterogeneous effect of reduced health care utilization on health outcomes. Patients with diabetes mellitus or cerebrovascular diseases are vulnerable to short-term reductions in health care; compared with the non-SARS period, mortality caused by diabetes mellitus and cerebrovascular diseases significantly increased during the SARS epidemic by 8.4% and 6.2%, respectively. No significant change in mortality rates caused by the other diseases or accidents is found. This study suggests that governments of countries where health care utilization and spending are similar to or inferior to those in Taiwan should carefully evaluate the impact of policies that attempt to reduce health care utilization. Furthermore, when an area encounters an epidemic, governments should be aware of the negative consequences of voluntary restraints on access to health care that accompany decreases in utilization.

The impact on neonatal mortality of shifting childbirth services among levels of hospitals: Taiwan's experience.

BACKGROUND: There is considerable discussion surrounding whether advanced hospitals provide better childbirth care than local community hospitals. This study examines the effect of shifting childbirth services from advanced hospitals (i.e., medical centers and regional hospitals) to local community hospitals (i.e., clinics and district hospitals). The sample population was tracked over a seven-year period, which includes the four months of the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Taiwan. During the SARS epidemic, pregnant women avoided using maternity services in advanced hospitals. Concerns have been raised about maintaining the quality of maternity care with increased demands on childbirth services in local community hospitals. In this study, we analyzed the impact of shifting maternity services among hospitals of different levels on neonatal mortality and maternal deaths. METHODS: A population-based study was conducted using data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance annual statistics of monthly county neonatal morality rates. Based on a pre-SARS sample from January 1998 to December 2002, we estimated a linear regression model which included "trend," a continuous variable representing the effect of yearly changes, and two binary variables, "month" and "county," controlling for seasonal and county-specific effects. With the estimated coefficients, we obtained predicted neonatal mortality rates for each county-month. We compared the differences between observed mortality rates of the SARS period and predicted rates to examine whether the shifting in maternity services during the SARS epidemic significantly affected neonatal mortality rates. RESULTS: With an analysis of a total of 1,848 observations between 1998 and 2004, an insignificantly negative mean of standardized predicted errors during the SARS period was found. The result of a sub-sample containing areas with advanced hospitals showed a significant negative mean of standardized predicted errors during the SARS period. These findings indicate that despite increased use of local community hospitals, neonatal mortality during the SARS epidemic did not increase, and even decreased in areas with advanced hospitals. CONCLUSION: An increased use of maternity services in local community hospitals occurred during the SARS epidemic in Taiwan. However, we observed no increase in neonatal and maternity mortality associated with these increased demands on local community hospitals.