Quantitative Integrative Survival Prediction in Multiple Myeloma Patients Treated With Bortezomib-Based Induction, High-Dose Therapy and Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation.

PURPOSE: Given the high heterogeneity in survival for patients with multiple myeloma, it would be clinically useful to quantitatively predict the individual survival instead of attributing patients to two to four risk groups as in current models, for example, revised International Staging System (R-ISS), R2-ISS, or Mayo-2022-score. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Our aim was to develop a quantitative prediction tool for individual patient's 3-/5-year overall survival (OS) probability. We integrated established clinical and molecular risk factors into a comprehensive prognostic model and evaluated and validated its risk discrimination capabilities versus R-ISS, R2-ISS, and Mayo-2022-score. RESULTS: A nomogram for estimating OS probabilities was built on the basis of a Cox regression model. It allows one to translate the individual risk profile of a patient into 3-/5-year OS probabilities by attributing points to each prognostic factor and summing up all points. The nomogram was externally validated regarding discrimination and calibration. There was no obvious bias or overfitting of the prognostic index on the validation cohort. Resampling-based and external evaluation showed good calibration. The c-index of the model was similar on the training (0.76) and validation cohort (0.75) and significantly higher than for the R-ISS (P < .001) or R2-ISS (P < .01). CONCLUSION: In summary, we developed and validated individual quantitative nomogram-based OS prediction. Continuous risk assessment integrating molecular prognostic factors is superior to R-ISS, R2-ISS, or Mayo-2022-score alone.

Molecular Long-Term Analysis of the GMMG-HD4 Trial in Multiple Myeloma-Patterns of Association of Chromosomal Aberrations with Response and Proliferation Determining Survival in Selecting Treatments in View of Limited Resources in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Based on the lack of differences in progression-free and overall survival after a median follow-up of 93 months in our HOVON-65/GMMG-HD4 trial (German part; n = 395) randomizing VAD induction (vincristin/adriamycin/dexamthasone)/tandem-transplantation/thalidomide-maintenance vs. PAD induction (bortezomib/adriamycin/dexamethasone)/tandem transplantation/bortezomib maintenance, we discern how chromosomal aberrations determine long-term prognosis by different patterns of association with proliferation and treatment-dependent response, whether responses achieved by different regimens are equal regarding prognosis, and whether subpopulations of patients could be defined as treatable without upfront "novel agents" in cases of limited resources, e.g., in low- or middle-income countries. Serum parameters and risk factors were assessed in 395 patients. CD138-purified plasma cells were subjected to fluorescence in situ hybridization (n = 354) and gene expression profiling (n = 204). We found chromosomal aberrations to be associated in four patterns with survival, proliferation, and response: deletion (del) del17p13, del8p21, del13q14, (gain) 1q21+, and translocation t(4;14) (all adverse) associate with higher proliferation. Of these, del17p is associated with an adverse response (pattern 1), and 1q21+, t(4;14), and del13q14 with a treatment-dependent better response (pattern 2). Hyperdiploidy associates with lower proliferation without impacting response or survival (pattern 3). Translocation t(11;14) has no association with survival but a treatment-dependent adverse response (pattern 4). Significantly fewer patients reach a near-complete response or better with "conventional" (VAD) vs. bortezomib-based treatment after induction or high-dose melphalan. These patients, however, show significantly better median progression-free and overall survival. Molecularly, patients responding to the two regimens differ in gene expression, indicating distinct biological properties of the responding myeloma cells. Patients with normal renal function (89.4%), low cytogenetic risk (72.5%), or low proliferation rate (37.9%) neither benefit in progression-free nor overall survival from bortezomib-based upfront treatment. We conclude that response level, the treatment by which it is achieved, and molecular background determine long-term prognosis. Chromosomal aberrations are associated in four patterns with proliferation and treatment-dependent responses. Associations with faster and deeper responses can be deceptive in the case of prognostically adverse aberrations 1q21+ and t(4;14). Far from advocating a return to "outdated" treatments, if resources do not permit state-of-the-art-treatment, normal renal function and/or molecular profiling identifies patient subpopulations doing well without upfront "novel agents".

Prevalence of the GFI1-36N SNP in Multiple Myeloma Patients and Its Impact on the Prognosis.

Transcription factor Growth Factor Independence 1 (GFI1) regulates the expression of genes important for survival, proliferation and differentiation of hematopoietic cells. A single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) variant of GFI1 (GFI1-36N: serine replaced by asparagine at position 36), has a prevalence of 5-7% among healthy Caucasians and 10-15% in patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) predisposing GFI-36N carriers to these diseases. Since GFI1 is implicated in B cell maturation and plasma cell (PC) development, we examined its prevalence in patients with multiple myeloma (MM), a haematological malignancy characterized by expansion of clonal PCs. Strikingly, as in MDS and AML, we found that the GFI1-36N had a higher prevalence among MM patients compared to the controls. In subgroup analyses, GFI1-36N correlates to a shorter overall survival of MM patients characterized by the presence of t(4;14) translocation and gain of 1q21 (≤3 copies). MM patients carrying gain of 1q21 (≥3 copies) demonstrated poor progression free survival. Furthermore, gene expression analysis implicated a role for GFI1-36N in epigenetic regulation and metabolism, potentially promoting the initiation and progression of MM.

CXCL9 Predicts Severity at the Onset of Chronic Graft-versus-host Disease.

BACKGROUND: Chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD) represents a double-edged sword. In its nonsevere form, cGVHD associates with better control of the malignant disease, thus highlighting graft-versus-leukemia effects. However, severe cGVHD leads to debilitating morbidity and increased nonrelapse mortality. The prediction of severe cGVHD, in particular at disease onset, is therefore of high importance for ensuing clinical decisions and overall success of allogeneic stem cell transplantations. CXC-chemokine ligand 9 (CXCL9) is an interferon-inducible chemokine of the CXC family and is increased in cGVHD. Endothelial activation and stress index (EASIX) was shown to predict death after acute graft-versus-host disease. We explored CXCL9 and EASIX as predictors of severe cGVHD. METHODS: Sera and clinical data of 480 patients were available who survived at least 6 months following allogeneic stem cell transplantation without steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host disease and without early relapse. CXCL9 and EASIX were measured on day +100 and onset of cGVHD. RESULTS: Development of nonsevere cGVHD was significantly associated with improved overall survival (hazard ratio 0.53, P < 0.001). CXCL9 serum levels at the onset of cGVHD predicted the development of severe cGVHD later on (hazard ratio 1.33, P = 0.02). In contrast, EASIX at the onset of cGVHD was not associated with cGVHD severity but was a significant independent risk factor for overall mortality and nonrelapse mortality. CONCLUSIONS: CXCL9 levels at the onset of cGVHD can help to predict severe courses of the disease and have potential for optimizing tailored administration of immunosuppressive therapy.

Marginal variable screening for survival endpoints.

When performing survival analysis in very high dimensions, it is often required to reduce the number of covariates using preliminary screening. During the last years, a large number of variable screening methods for the survival context have been developed. However, guidance is missing for choosing an appropriate method in practice. The aim of this work is to provide an overview of marginal variable screening methods for survival and develop recommendations for their use. For this purpose, a literature review is given, offering a comprehensive and structured introduction to the topic. In addition, a novel screening procedure based on distance correlation and martingale residuals is proposed, which is particularly useful in detecting nonmonotone associations. For evaluating the performance of the discussed approaches, a simulation study is conducted, comparing the true positive rates of competing variable screening methods in different settings. A real data example on mantle cell lymphoma is provided.

EASIX for prediction of survival in lower-risk myelodysplastic syndromes.

Patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are at risk of early death from cardiovascular complications due to the link between clonal hematopoiesis and endothelial dysfunction. EASIX (Endothelial Activation and Stress Index) has been established to predict endothelial complications after allogeneic transplantation. We investigated the impact of EASIX measured at first diagnosis on survival of patients with lower- and higher-risk MDS (no allogeneic transplantation) in two independent institutions: n = 192 (training cohort) and n = 333 (validation cohort). Serum markers of endothelial cell distress were measured and correlated to EASIX. While no effects of EASIX on survival were observed in higher-risk patients, EASIX was associated with shorter survival in patients with lower-risk MDS in both cohorts (univariate: Cohort I: hazard ratio (HR): 1.46; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24-1.71; p-value < 0.001/Cohort II: HR 1.31 [1.17-1.48]; p-value < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis and prediction error analyses confirmed that EASIX remained a significant predictor of survival after adjustment for age, sex, cytogenetic abnormalities and bone marrow blasts in lower-risk patients. The model of the training cohort could be validated. Serum levels of Angiopioetin-2 correlated significantly with EASIX. We introduce EASIX as an easily accessible and independent predictor for survival in patients with lower-risk MDS.

No Evidence for Effect of Exercise on Transcriptome of NK Cells in Breast Cancer Patients Undergoing Adjuvant Therapy: Results From a Pilot Study.

BACKGROUND: Mobilization and activation of natural killer cells (NK cells) have been hypothesized to contribute to observed protective effects of exercise on cancer development and progression. Some evidence exists for acute effects of aerobic exercise on NK cell mobilization and function, i.e., alteration of the gene expression profile of NK cells. Yet, the chronic effects of exercise training, and effects of other modalities than endurance exercise are still understudied. Here, we investigated the chronic effects of a 12-week resistance exercise program on NK cell gene expression in breast cancer patients undergoing adjuvant chemo- or radiotherapy. METHODS: Breast cancer patients were randomly assigned to either a 12-week resistance exercise program or a relaxation control group concomitant to adjuvant therapy. In a subsample of 19 participants, RNA was extracted from magnet bead isolated NK cells and subsequently analyzed for differential gene expression using microarray Illumina HumanHT-12 v4 before and after the intervention. RESULTS: After chronic exercise intervention several genes showed higher differential expression compared to the control group. However, after correction for multiple testing, baseline-adjusted analyses of covariance indicated no significant differences between the intervention and the control group with regard to the gene expression profile. DISCUSSION: Our findings suggest that 12-week resistance-exercise did not alter the gene expression profile of NK cells in breast cancer patients undergoing adjuvant therapy on the long term. Further studies with larger sample sizes and specifically designed to investigate whether exercise-induced changes in NK cell function are attributed to acute effects are warranted.

Association of resilience with health-related quality of life and depression in multiple myeloma and its precursors: results of a German cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the relation between resilience, health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and depression in multiple myeloma (MM) and its premalignant stages. MM is one of the most frequent haematological disorders. It is regularly preceded by asymptomatic stages of the disease namely monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and smouldering multiple myeloma (SMM). Survivors have to cope with mental and physical impairment in terms of HRQOL and depression. The concept of resilience refers to a person's ability to adapt to adversity. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: MM outpatient department at a University Hospital in Germany (tertiary care). PARTICIPANTS: 292 consecutive patients from our MM outpatient department. OUTCOME MEASURES: HRQOL, depression and psychological resilience were assessed with validated questionnaires. RESULTS: Regression analyses were performed to determine associations between resilience, HRQOL and depression. 98 patients (33.6%) had a new diagnosis of active MM, 106 patients (36.3%) were already treated for MM and 88 patients had the diagnosis of a precursor (MGUS or SMM; 30.1%) of MM. Multivariate linear regression analyses revealed a strong positive impact of resilience on physical (b 7.20; 95% CI 4.43 to 9.98; p<0.001) and mental (b 12.12; 95% CI 9.36 to 14.87; p<0.001) HRQOL. Ordered logistic regression analysis showed that the odds for higher depression severity were lowered for individuals with a high level of resilience in comparison to the individuals with a low level of resilience (OR 0.11; 95% CI 0.06 to 0.19; p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Resilience may be a protective factor in the disease trajectory of MM and its precursors. As a next step, future research should focus on longitudinal assessments at various time points to elucidate the role of resilience in one of the most frequent haematological malignancies.

Multiple-rater kappas for binary data: Models and interpretation.

Interrater agreement on binary measurements with more than two raters is often assessed using Fleiss' κ, which is known to be difficult to interpret. In situations where the same raters rate all items, however, the far less known κ suggested by Conger, Hubert, and Schouten is more appropriate. We try to support the interpretation of these characteristics by investigating various models or scenarios of rating. Our analysis, which is restricted to binary data, shows that conclusions concerning interrater agreement by κ heavily depend on the population of items or subjects considered, even if the raters have identical behavior. The standard scale proposed by Landis and Koch, which verbally interprets numerical values of κ, appears to be rather subjective. On the basis of one of the models for rater behavior, we suggest an alternative verbal interpretation for kappa. Finally, we reconsider a classical example from pathology to illustrate the application of our methods and models. We also look for subgroups of raters with similar rating behavior using hierarchical clustering.