Multi-ancestry GWAS meta-analyses of lung cancer reveal susceptibility loci and elucidate smoking-independent genetic risk.

Lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer mortality, despite declining smoking rates. Previous lung cancer GWAS have identified numerous loci, but separating the genetic risks of lung cancer and smoking behavioral susceptibility remains challenging. Here, we perform multi-ancestry GWAS meta-analyses of lung cancer using the Million Veteran Program cohort (approximately 95% male cases) and a previous study of European-ancestry individuals, jointly comprising 42,102 cases and 181,270 controls, followed by replication in an independent cohort of 19,404 cases and 17,378 controls. We then carry out conditional meta-analyses on cigarettes per day and identify two novel, replicated loci, including the 19p13.11 pleiotropic cancer locus in squamous cell lung carcinoma. Overall, we report twelve novel risk loci for overall lung cancer, lung adenocarcinoma, and squamous cell lung carcinoma, nine of which are externally replicated. Finally, we perform PheWAS on polygenic risk scores for lung cancer, with and without conditioning on smoking. The unconditioned lung cancer polygenic risk score is associated with smoking status in controls, illustrating a reduced predictive utility in non-smokers. Additionally, our polygenic risk score demonstrates smoking-independent pleiotropy of lung cancer risk across neoplasms and metabolic traits.

Smoking and alcohol by HPV status in head and neck cancer: a Mendelian randomization study.

HPV-positive and HPV-negative head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) are recognized as distinct entities. There remains uncertainty surrounding the causal effects of smoking and alcohol on the development of these two cancer types. Here we perform multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR) to evaluate the causal effects of smoking and alcohol on the risk of HPV-positive and HPV-negative HNSCC in 3431 cases and 3469 controls. Lifetime smoking exposure, as measured by the Comprehensive Smoking Index (CSI), is associated with increased risk of both HPV-negative HNSCC (OR = 3.03, 95%CI:1.75-5.24, P = 7.00E-05) and HPV-positive HNSCC (OR = 2.73, 95%CI:1.39-5.36, P = 0.003). Drinks Per Week is also linked with increased risk of both HPV-negative HNSCC (OR = 7.72, 95%CI:3.63-16.4, P = 1.00E-07) and HPV-positive HNSCC (OR = 2.66, 95%CI:1.06-6.68, P = 0.038). Smoking and alcohol independently increase the risk of both HPV-positive and HPV-negative HNSCC. These findings have important implications for understanding the modifying risk factors between HNSCC subtypes.

On the informative value of community-based indoor radon values in relation to lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Radon is a radioactive gas and a major risk factor for lung cancer (LC). METHODS: We investigated the dose-response relationship between radon and LC risk in the International Lung Cancer Consortium with 8927 cases and 5562 controls from Europe, North America, and Israel, conducted between 1992 and 2016. Spatial indoor radon exposure in the residential area (sIR) obtained from national surveys was linked to the participants' residential geolocation. Parametric linear and spline functions were fitted within a logistic regression framework. RESULTS: We observed a non-linear spatial-dose response relationship for sIR < 200 Bq/m3. The lowest risk was observed for areas of mean exposure of 58 Bq/m3 (95% CI: 56.1-59.2 Bq/m3). The relative risk of lung cancer increased to the same degree in areas averaging 25 Bq/m3 (OR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.01-1.59) as in areas with a mean of 100 Bq/m3 (OR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.20-1.45). The strongest association was observed for small cell lung cancer and the weakest for squamous cell carcinoma. A stronger association was also observed in men, but only at higher exposure levels. The non-linear association is primarily observed among the younger population (age < 69 years), but not in the older population, which can potentially represent different biological radiation responses. CONCLUSIONS: The sIR is useful as proxy of individual radon exposure in epidemiological studies on lung cancer. The usual assumption of a linear, no-threshold dose-response relationship, as can be made for individual radon exposures, may not be optimal for sIR values of less than 200 Bq/m3.

Stratifying Lung Adenocarcinoma Risk with Multi-ancestry Polygenic Risk Scores in East Asian Never-Smokers.

Background: Lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) among never-smokers is a public health burden especially prevalent in East Asian (EAS) women. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs), which quanefy geneec suscepebility, are promising for straefying risk, yet have mainly been developed in European (EUR) populaeons. We developed and validated single-and mule-ancestry PRSs for LUAD in EAS never-smokers, using the largest available genome-wide associaeon study (GWAS) dataset. Methods: We used GWAS summary staesecs from both EAS (8,002 cases; 20,782 controls) and EUR (2,058 cases; 5,575 controls) populaeons, as well as independent EAS individual level data. We evaluated several PRSs approaches: a single-ancestry PRS using 25 variants that reached genome-wide significance (PRS-25), a genome-wide Bayesian based approach (LDpred2), and a mule-ancestry approach that models geneec correlaeons across ancestries (CT-SLEB). PRS performance was evaluated based on the associaeon with LUAD and AUC values. We then esemated the lifeeme absolute risk of LUAD (age 30-80) and projected the AUC at different sample sizes using EAS-derived effect-size distribueon and heritability esemates. Findings: The CT-SLEB PRS showed a strong associaeon with LUAD risk (odds raeo=1.71, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.61, 1.82) with an AUC of 0.640 (95% CI: 0.629, 0.653). Individuals in the 95 th percenele of the PRS had an esemated 6.69% lifeeme absolute risk of LUAD. Comparison of LUAD risk between individuals in the highest and lowest 20% PRS quaneles revealed a 3.92-fold increase. Projeceon analyses indicated that achieving an AUC of 0.70, which approaches the maximized prediceon poteneal of the PRS given the esemated geneec variance, would require a future study encompassing 55,000 EAS LUAD cases with a 1:10 case-control raeo. Interpretations: Our study underscores the poteneal of mule-ancestry PRS approaches to enhance LUAD risk straeficaeon in never-smokers, parecularly in EAS populaeons, and highlights the necessary scale of future research to uncover the geneec underpinnings of LUAD.

Protein Biomarkers in Lung Cancer Screening: Technical Considerations and Feasibility Assessment.

Lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide, mainly due to late diagnosis and the presence of metastases. Several countries around the world have adopted nation-wide LDCT-based lung cancer screening that will benefit patients, shifting the stage at diagnosis to earlier stages with more therapeutic options. Biomarkers can help to optimize the screening process, as well as refine the TNM stratification of lung cancer patients, providing information regarding prognostics and recommending management strategies. Moreover, novel adjuvant strategies will clearly benefit from previous knowledge of the potential aggressiveness and biological traits of a given early-stage surgically resected tumor. This review focuses on proteins as promising biomarkers in the context of lung cancer screening. Despite great efforts, there are still no successful examples of biomarkers in lung cancer that have reached the clinics to be used in early detection and early management. Thus, the field of biomarkers in early lung cancer remains an evident unmet need. A more specific objective of this review is to present an up-to-date technical assessment of the potential use of protein biomarkers in early lung cancer detection and management. We provide an overview regarding the benefits, challenges, pitfalls and constraints in the development process of protein-based biomarkers. Additionally, we examine how a number of emerging protein analytical technologies may contribute to the optimization of novel robust biomarkers for screening and effective management of lung cancer.

High-throughput characterization of functional variants highlights heterogeneity and polygenicity underlying lung cancer susceptibility.

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified numerous lung cancer risk-associated loci. However, decoding molecular mechanisms of these associations is challenging since most of these genetic variants are non-protein-coding with unknown function. Here, we implemented massively parallel reporter assays (MPRAs) to simultaneously measure the allelic transcriptional activity of risk-associated variants. We tested 2,245 variants at 42 loci from 3 recent GWASs in East Asian and European populations in the context of two major lung cancer histological types and exposure to benzo(a)pyrene. This MPRA approach identified one or more variants (median 11 variants) with significant effects on transcriptional activity at 88% of GWAS loci. Multimodal integration of lung-specific epigenomic data demonstrated that 63% of the loci harbored multiple potentially functional variants in linkage disequilibrium. While 22% of the significant variants showed allelic effects in both A549 (adenocarcinoma) and H520 (squamous cell carcinoma) cell lines, a subset of the functional variants displayed a significant cell-type interaction. Transcription factor analyses nominated potential regulators of the functional variants, including those with cell-type-specific expression and those predicted to bind multiple potentially functional variants across the GWAS loci. Linking functional variants to target genes based on four complementary approaches identified candidate susceptibility genes, including those affecting lung cancer cell growth. CRISPR interference of the top functional variant at 20q13.33 validated variant-to-gene connections, including RTEL1, SOX18, and ARFRP1. Our data provide a comprehensive functional analysis of lung cancer GWAS loci and help elucidate the molecular basis of heterogeneity and polygenicity underlying lung cancer susceptibility.

Genome-Wide Analysis to Assess if Heavy Alcohol Consumption Modifies the Association between SNPs and Pancreatic Cancer Risk.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related death globally. Risk factors for pancreatic cancer include common genetic variants and potentially heavy alcohol consumption. We assessed if genetic variants modify the association between heavy alcohol consumption and pancreatic cancer risk. METHODS: We conducted a genome-wide interaction analysis of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) by heavy alcohol consumption (more than three drinks per day) for pancreatic cancer in European ancestry populations from genome-wide association studies. Our analysis included 3,707 cases and 4,167 controls from case-control studies and 1,098 cases and 1,162 controls from cohort studies. Fixed-effect meta-analyses were conducted. RESULTS: A potential novel region of association on 10p11.22, lead SNP rs7898449 (interaction P value (Pinteraction) = 5.1 × 10-8 in the meta-analysis; Pinteraction = 2.1 × 10-9 in the case-control studies; Pinteraction = 0.91 in the cohort studies), was identified. An SNP correlated with this lead SNP is an expression quantitative trait locus for the neuropilin 1 gene. Of the 17 genomic regions with genome-wide significant evidence of association with pancreatic cancer in prior studies, we observed suggestive evidence that heavy alcohol consumption modified the association for one SNP near LINC00673, rs11655237 on 17q25.1 (Pinteraction = 0.004). CONCLUSIONS: We identified a novel genomic region that may be associated with pancreatic cancer risk in conjunction with heavy alcohol consumption located near an expression quantitative trait locus for neuropilin 1, a protein that plays an important role in the development and progression of pancreatic cancer. IMPACT: This work can provide insights into the etiology of pancreatic cancer, particularly in heavy drinkers.

Genomic Insights for Personalized Care: Motivating At-Risk Individuals Toward Evidence-Based Health Practices.

Background: Lung cancer and tobacco use pose significant global health challenges, necessitating a comprehensive translational roadmap for improved prevention strategies. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are powerful tools for patient risk stratification but have not yet been widely used in primary care for lung cancer, particularly in diverse patient populations. Methods: We propose the GREAT care paradigm, which employs PRSs to stratify disease risk and personalize interventions. We developed PRSs using large-scale multi-ancestry genome-wide association studies and standardized PRS distributions across all ancestries. We applied our PRSs to 796 individuals from the GISC Trial, 350,154 from UK Biobank (UKBB), and 210,826 from All of Us Research Program (AoU), totaling 561,776 individuals of diverse ancestry. Results: Significant odds ratios (ORs) for lung cancer and difficulty quitting smoking were observed in both UKBB and AoU. For lung cancer, the ORs for individuals in the highest risk group (top 20% versus bottom 20%) were 1.85 (95% CI: 1.58 - 2.18) in UKBB and 2.39 (95% CI: 1.93 - 2.97) in AoU. For difficulty quitting smoking, the ORs (top 33% versus bottom 33%) were 1.36 (95% CI: 1.32 - 1.41) in UKBB and 1.32 (95% CI: 1.28 - 1.36) in AoU. Conclusion: Our PRS-based intervention model leverages large-scale genetic data for robust risk assessment across populations. This model will be evaluated in two cluster-randomized clinical trials aimed at motivating health behavior changes in high-risk patients of diverse ancestry. This pioneering approach integrates genomic insights into primary care, promising improved outcomes in cancer prevention and tobacco treatment.

Identifying therapeutic targets for cancer among 2074 circulating proteins and risk of nine cancers.

Circulating proteins can reveal key pathways to cancer and identify therapeutic targets for cancer prevention. We investigate 2,074 circulating proteins and risk of nine common cancers (bladder, breast, endometrium, head and neck, lung, ovary, pancreas, kidney, and malignant non-melanoma) using cis protein Mendelian randomisation and colocalization. We conduct additional analyses to identify adverse side-effects of altering risk proteins and map cancer risk proteins to drug targets. Here we find 40 proteins associated with common cancers, such as PLAUR and risk of breast cancer [odds ratio per standard deviation increment: 2.27, 1.88-2.74], and with high-mortality cancers, such as CTRB1 and pancreatic cancer [0.79, 0.73-0.85]. We also identify potential adverse effects of protein-altering interventions to reduce cancer risk, such as hypertension. Additionally, we report 18 proteins associated with cancer risk that map to existing drugs and 15 that are not currently under clinical investigation. In sum, we identify protein-cancer links that improve our understanding of cancer aetiology. We also demonstrate that the wider consequence of any protein-altering intervention on well-being and morbidity is required to interpret any utility of proteins as potential future targets for therapeutic prevention.

Canadian COVID-19 host genetics cohort replicates known severity associations.

The HostSeq initiative recruited 10,059 Canadians infected with SARS-CoV-2 between March 2020 and March 2023, obtained clinical information on their disease experience and whole genome sequenced (WGS) their DNA. We analyzed the WGS data for genetic contributors to severe COVID-19 (considering 3,499 hospitalized cases and 4,975 non-hospitalized after quality control). We investigated the evidence for replication of loci reported by the International Host Genetics Initiative (HGI); analyzed the X chromosome; conducted rare variant gene-based analysis and polygenic risk score testing. Population stratification was adjusted for using meta-analysis across ancestry groups. We replicated two loci identified by the HGI for COVID-19 severity: the LZTFL1/SLC6A20 locus on chromosome 3 and the FOXP4 locus on chromosome 6 (the latter with a variant significant at P < 5E-8). We found novel significant associations with MRAS and WDR89 in gene-based analyses, and constructed a polygenic risk score that explained 1.01% of the variance in severe COVID-19. This study provides independent evidence confirming the robustness of previously identified COVID-19 severity loci by the HGI and identifies novel genes for further investigation.

Impact of individual level uncertainty of lung cancer polygenic risk score (PRS) on risk stratification.

BACKGROUND: Although polygenic risk score (PRS) has emerged as a promising tool for predicting cancer risk from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), the individual-level accuracy of lung cancer PRS and the extent to which its impact on subsequent clinical applications remains largely unexplored. METHODS: Lung cancer PRSs and confidence/credible interval (CI) were constructed using two statistical approaches for each individual: (1) the weighted sum of 16 GWAS-derived significant SNP loci and the CI through the bootstrapping method (PRS-16-CV) and (2) LDpred2 and the CI through posteriors sampling (PRS-Bayes), among 17,166 lung cancer cases and 12,894 controls with European ancestry from the International Lung Cancer Consortium. Individuals were classified into different genetic risk subgroups based on the relationship between their own PRS mean/PRS CI and the population level threshold. RESULTS: Considerable variances in PRS point estimates at the individual level were observed for both methods, with an average standard deviation (s.d.) of 0.12 for PRS-16-CV and a much larger s.d. of 0.88 for PRS-Bayes. Using PRS-16-CV, only 25.0% of individuals with PRS point estimates in the lowest decile of PRS and 16.8% in the highest decile have their entire 95% CI fully contained in the lowest and highest decile, respectively, while PRS-Bayes was unable to find any eligible individuals. Only 19% of the individuals were concordantly identified as having high genetic risk (> 90th percentile) using the two PRS estimators. An increased relative risk of lung cancer comparing the highest PRS percentile to the lowest was observed when taking the CI into account (OR = 2.73, 95% CI: 2.12-3.50, P-value = 4.13 × 10-15) compared to using PRS-16-CV mean (OR = 2.23, 95% CI: 1.99-2.49, P-value = 5.70 × 10-46). Improved risk prediction performance with higher AUC was consistently observed in individuals identified by PRS-16-CV CI, and the best performance was achieved by incorporating age, gender, and detailed smoking pack-years (AUC: 0.73, 95% CI = 0.72-0.74). CONCLUSIONS: Lung cancer PRS estimates using different methods have modest correlations at the individual level, highlighting the importance of considering individual-level uncertainty when evaluating the practical utility of PRS.

Association between circulating inflammatory markers and adult cancer risk: a Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: Tumour-promoting inflammation is a "hallmark" of cancer and conventional epidemiological studies have reported links between various inflammatory markers and cancer risk. The causal nature of these relationships and, thus, the suitability of these markers as intervention targets for cancer prevention is unclear. METHODS: We meta-analysed 6 genome-wide association studies of circulating inflammatory markers comprising 59,969 participants of European ancestry. We then used combined cis-Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis to evaluate the causal role of 66 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 30 adult cancers in 338,294 cancer cases and up to 1,238,345 controls. Genetic instruments for inflammatory markers were constructed using genome-wide significant (P < 5.0 × 10-8) cis-acting SNPs (i.e., in or ±250 kb from the gene encoding the relevant protein) in weak linkage disequilibrium (LD, r2 < 0.10). Effect estimates were generated using inverse-variance weighted random-effects models and standard errors were inflated to account for weak LD between variants with reference to the 1000 Genomes Phase 3 CEU panel. A false discovery rate (FDR)-corrected P-value ("q-value") <0.05 was used as a threshold to define "strong evidence" to support associations and 0.05 ≤ q-value < 0.20 to define "suggestive evidence". A colocalisation posterior probability (PPH4) >70% was employed to indicate support for shared causal variants across inflammatory markers and cancer outcomes. Findings were replicated in the FinnGen study and then pooled using meta-analysis. FINDINGS: We found strong evidence to support an association of genetically-proxied circulating pro-adrenomedullin concentrations with increased breast cancer risk (OR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10-1.29, q-value = 0.033, PPH4 = 84.3%) and suggestive evidence to support associations of interleukin-23 receptor concentrations with increased pancreatic cancer risk (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.20-1.69, q-value = 0.055, PPH4 = 73.9%), prothrombin concentrations with decreased basal cell carcinoma risk (OR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.53-0.81, q-value = 0.067, PPH4 = 81.8%), and interleukin-1 receptor-like 1 concentrations with decreased triple-negative breast cancer risk (OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88-0.97, q-value = 0.15, PPH4 = 85.6%). These findings were replicated in pooled analyses with the FinnGen study. Though suggestive evidence was found to support an association of macrophage migration inhibitory factor concentrations with increased bladder cancer risk (OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.48-4.10, q-value = 0.072, PPH4 = 76.1%), this finding was not replicated when pooled with the FinnGen study. For 22 of 30 cancer outcomes examined, there was little evidence (q-value ≥0.20) that any of the 66 circulating inflammatory markers examined were associated with cancer risk. INTERPRETATION: Our comprehensive joint Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis of the role of circulating inflammatory markers in cancer risk identified potential roles for 4 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 4 site-specific cancers. Contrary to reports from some prior conventional epidemiological studies, we found little evidence of association of circulating inflammatory markers with the majority of site-specific cancers evaluated. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK (C68933/A28534, C18281/A29019, PPRCPJT∖100005), World Cancer Research Fund (IIG_FULL_2020_022), National Institute for Health Research (NIHR202411, BRC-1215-20011), Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/1, MC_UU_00011/3, MC_UU_00011/6, and MC_UU_00011/4), Academy of Finland Project 326291, European Union's Horizon 2020 grant agreement no. 848158 (EarlyCause), French National Cancer Institute (INCa SHSESP20, 2020-076), Versus Arthritis (21173, 21754, 21755), National Institutes of Health (U19 CA203654), National Cancer Institute (U19CA203654).

Lung Cancer in Ever- and Never-Smokers: Findings from Multi-Population GWAS Studies.

BACKGROUND: Clinical, molecular, and genetic epidemiology studies displayed remarkable differences between ever- and never-smoking lung cancer. METHODS: We conducted a stratified multi-population (European, East Asian, and African descent) association study on 44,823 ever-smokers and 20,074 never-smokers to identify novel variants that were missed in the non-stratified analysis. Functional analysis including expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) colocalization and DNA damage assays, and annotation studies were conducted to evaluate the functional roles of the variants. We further evaluated the impact of smoking quantity on lung cancer risk for the variants associated with ever-smoking lung cancer. RESULTS: Five novel independent loci, GABRA4, intergenic region 12q24.33, LRRC4C, LINC01088, and LCNL1 were identified with the association at two or three populations (P < 5 × 10-8). Further functional analysis provided multiple lines of evidence suggesting the variants affect lung cancer risk through excessive DNA damage (GABRA4) or cis-regulation of gene expression (LCNL1). The risk of variants from 12 independent regions, including the well-known CHRNA5, associated with ever-smoking lung cancer was evaluated for never-smokers, light-smokers (packyear ≤ 20), and moderate-to-heavy-smokers (packyear > 20). Different risk patterns were observed for the variants among the different groups by smoking behavior. CONCLUSIONS: We identified novel variants associated with lung cancer in only ever- or never-smoking groups that were missed by prior main-effect association studies. IMPACT: Our study highlights the genetic heterogeneity between ever- and never-smoking lung cancer and provides etiologic insights into the complicated genetic architecture of this deadly cancer.

Interaction between Continuous Pack-Years Smoked and Polygenic Risk Score on Lung Cancer Risk: Prospective Results from the Framingham Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer risk attributable to smoking is dose dependent, yet few studies examining a polygenic risk score (PRS) by smoking interaction have included comprehensive lifetime pack-years smoked. METHODS: We analyzed data from participants of European ancestry in the Framingham Heart Study Original (n = 454) and Offspring (n = 2,470) cohorts enrolled in 1954 and 1971, respectively, and followed through 2018. We built a PRS for lung cancer using participant genotyping data and genome-wide association study summary statistics from a recent study in the OncoArray Consortium. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to assess risk and the interaction between pack-years smoked and genetic risk for lung cancer adjusting for European ancestry, age, sex, and education. RESULTS: We observed a significant submultiplicative interaction between pack-years and PRS on lung cancer risk (P = 0.09). Thus, the relative risk associated with each additional 10 pack-years smoked decreased with increasing genetic risk (HR = 1.56 at one SD below mean PRS, HR = 1.48 at mean PRS, and HR = 1.40 at one SD above mean PRS). Similarly, lung cancer risk per SD increase in the PRS was highest among those who had never smoked (HR = 1.55) and decreased with heavier smoking (HR = 1.32 at 30 pack-years). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest the presence of a submultiplicative interaction between pack-years and genetics on lung cancer risk, consistent with recent findings. Both smoking and genetics were significantly associated with lung cancer risk. IMPACT: These results underscore the contributions of genetics and smoking on lung cancer risk and highlight the negative impact of continued smoking regardless of genetic risk.

Radiomics analysis to predict pulmonary nodule malignancy using machine learning approaches.

BACKGROUND: Low-dose CT screening can reduce lung cancer-related mortality. However, most screen-detected pulmonary abnormalities do not develop into cancer and it often remains challenging to identify malignant nodules, particularly among indeterminate nodules. We aimed to develop and assess prediction models based on radiological features to discriminate between benign and malignant pulmonary lesions detected on a baseline screen. METHODS: Using four international lung cancer screening studies, we extracted 2060 radiomic features for each of 16 797 nodules (513 malignant) among 6865 participants. After filtering out low-quality radiomic features, 642 radiomic and 9 epidemiological features remained for model development. We used cross-validation and grid search to assess three machine learning (ML) models (eXtreme Gradient Boosted Trees, random forest, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)) for their ability to accurately predict risk of malignancy for pulmonary nodules. We report model performance based on the area under the curve (AUC) and calibration metrics in the held-out test set. RESULTS: The LASSO model yielded the best predictive performance in cross-validation and was fit in the full training set based on optimised hyperparameters. Our radiomics model had a test-set AUC of 0.93 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.96) and outperformed the established Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer model (AUC 0.87, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.89) for nodule assessment. Our model performed well among both solid (AUC 0.93, 95% CI 0.89 to 0.97) and subsolid nodules (AUC 0.91, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.95). CONCLUSIONS: We developed highly accurate ML models based on radiomic and epidemiological features from four international lung cancer screening studies that may be suitable for assessing indeterminate screen-detected pulmonary nodules for risk of malignancy.

Risk model-based management for second primary lung cancer among lung cancer survivors through a validated risk prediction model.

BACKGROUND: Recent therapeutic advances and screening technologies have improved survival among patients with lung cancer, who are now at high risk of developing second primary lung cancer (SPLC). Recently, an SPLC risk-prediction model (called SPLC-RAT) was developed and validated using data from population-based epidemiological cohorts and clinical trials, but real-world validation has been lacking. The predictive performance of SPLC-RAT was evaluated in a hospital-based cohort of lung cancer survivors. METHODS: The authors analyzed data from 8448 ever-smoking patients diagnosed with initial primary lung cancer (IPLC) in 1997-2006 at Mayo Clinic, with each patient followed for SPLC through 2018. The predictive performance of SPLC-RAT and further explored the potential of improving SPLC detection through risk model-based surveillance using SPLC-RAT versus existing clinical surveillance guidelines. RESULTS: Of 8448 IPLC patients, 483 (5.7%) developed SPLC over 26,470 person-years. The application of SPLC-RAT showed high discrimination area under the receiver operating characteristics curve: 0.81). When the cohort was stratified by a 10-year risk threshold of ≥5.6% (i.e., 80th percentile from the SPLC-RAT development cohort), the observed SPLC incidence was significantly elevated in the high-risk versus low-risk subgroup (13.1% vs. 1.1%, p < 1 × 10-6 ). The risk-based surveillance through SPLC-RAT (≥5.6% threshold) outperformed the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines with higher sensitivity (86.4% vs. 79.4%) and specificity (38.9% vs. 30.4%) and required 20% fewer computed tomography follow-ups needed to detect one SPLC (162 vs. 202). CONCLUSION: In a large, hospital-based cohort, the authors validated the predictive performance of SPLC-RAT in identifying high-risk survivors of SPLC and showed its potential to improve SPLC detection through risk-based surveillance. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Lung cancer survivors have a high risk of developing second primary lung cancer (SPLC). However, no evidence-based guidelines for SPLC surveillance are available for lung cancer survivors. Recently, an SPLC risk-prediction model was developed and validated using data from population-based epidemiological cohorts and clinical trials, but real-world validation has been lacking. Using a large, real-world cohort of lung cancer survivors, we showed the high predictive accuracy and risk-stratification ability of the SPLC risk-prediction model. Furthermore, we demonstrated the potential to enhance efficiency in detecting SPLC using risk model-based surveillance strategies compared to the existing consensus-based clinical guidelines, including the National Comprehensive Cancer Network.

Identification of genetically predicted DNA methylation markers associated with non-small cell lung cancer risk among 34,964 cases and 448,579 controls.

BACKGROUND: Although the associations between genetic variations and lung cancer risk have been explored, the epigenetic consequences of DNA methylation in lung cancer development are largely unknown. Here, the genetically predicted DNA methylation markers associated with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) risk by a two-stage case-control design were investigated. METHODS: The genetic prediction models for methylation levels based on genetic and methylation data of 1595 subjects from the Framingham Heart Study were established. The prediction models were applied to a fixed-effect meta-analysis of screening data sets with 27,120 NSCLC cases and 27,355 controls to identify the methylation markers, which were then replicated in independent data sets with 7844 lung cancer cases and 421,224 controls. Also performed was a multi-omics functional annotation for the identified CpGs by integrating genomics, epigenomics, and transcriptomics and investigation of the potential regulation pathways. RESULTS: Of the 29,894 CpG sites passing the quality control, 39 CpGs associated with NSCLC risk (Bonferroni-corrected p ≤ 1.67 × 10-6 ) were originally identified. Of these, 16 CpGs remained significant in the validation stage (Bonferroni-corrected p ≤ 1.28 × 10-3 ), including four novel CpGs. Multi-omics functional annotation showed nine of 16 CpGs were potentially functional biomarkers for NSCLC risk. Thirty-five genes within a 1-Mb window of 12 CpGs that might be involved in regulatory pathways of NSCLC risk were identified. CONCLUSIONS: Sixteen promising DNA methylation markers associated with NSCLC were identified. Changes of the methylation level at these CpGs might influence the development of NSCLC by regulating the expression of genes nearby. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY: The epigenetic consequences of DNA methylation in lung cancer development are still largely unknown. This study used summary data of large-scale genome-wide association studies to investigate the associations between genetically predicted levels of methylation biomarkers and non-small cell lung cancer risk at the first time. This study looked at how well larotrectinib worked in adult patients with sarcomas caused by TRK fusion proteins. These findings will provide a unique insight into the epigenetic susceptibility mechanisms of lung cancer.

CYP2A6 Activity and Cigarette Consumption Interact in Smoking-Related Lung Cancer Susceptibility.

Cigarette smoke, containing both nicotine and carcinogens, causes lung cancer. However, not all smokers develop lung cancer, highlighting the importance of the interaction between host susceptibility and environmental exposure in tumorigenesis. Here, we aimed to delineate the interaction between metabolizing ability of tobacco carcinogens and smoking intensity in mediating genetic susceptibility to smoking-related lung tumorigenesis. Single-variant and gene-based associations of 43 tobacco carcinogen-metabolizing genes with lung cancer were analyzed using summary statistics and individual-level genetic data, followed by causal inference of Mendelian randomization, mediation analysis, and structural equation modeling. Cigarette smoke-exposed cell models were used to detect gene expression patterns in relation to specific alleles. Data from the International Lung Cancer Consortium (29,266 cases and 56,450 controls) and UK Biobank (2,155 cases and 376,329 controls) indicated that the genetic variant rs56113850 C>T located in intron 4 of CYP2A6 was significantly associated with decreased lung cancer risk among smokers (OR = 0.88, 95% confidence interval = 0.85-0.91, P = 2.18 × 10-16), which might interact (Pinteraction = 0.028) with and partially be mediated (ORindirect = 0.987) by smoking status. Smoking intensity accounted for 82.3% of the effect of CYP2A6 activity on lung cancer risk but entirely mediated the genetic effect of rs56113850. Mechanistically, the rs56113850 T allele rescued the downregulation of CYP2A6 caused by cigarette smoke exposure, potentially through preferential recruitment of transcription factor helicase-like transcription factor. Together, this study provides additional insights into the interplay between host susceptibility and carcinogen exposure in smoking-related lung tumorigenesis. SIGNIFICANCE: The causal pathway connecting CYP2A6 genetic variability and activity, cigarette consumption, and lung cancer susceptibility in smokers highlights the need for behavior modification interventions based on host susceptibility for cancer prevention.

Diagnostic accuracy of HPV16 early antigen serology for HPV-driven oropharyngeal cancer is independent of age and sex.

A growing proportion of head and neck cancer (HNC), especially oropharyngeal cancer (OPC), is caused by human papillomavirus (HPV). There are several markers for HPV-driven HNC, one being HPV early antigen serology. We aimed to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of HPV serology and its performance across patient characteristics. Data from the VOYAGER consortium was used, which comprises five studies on HNC from North America and Europe. Diagnostic accuracy, that is, sensitivity, specificity, Cohen's kappa and correctly classified proportions of HPV16 E6 serology, was assessed for OPC and other HNC using p16INK4a immunohistochemistry (p16), HPV in situ hybridization (ISH) and HPV PCR as reference methods. Stratified analyses were performed for variables including age, sex, smoking and alcohol use, to test the robustness of diagnostic accuracy. A risk-factor analysis based on serology was conducted, comparing HPV-driven to non-HPV-driven OPC. Overall, HPV serology had a sensitivity of 86.8% (95% CI 85.1-88.3) and specificity of 91.2% (95% CI 88.6-93.4) for HPV-driven OPC using p16 as a reference method. In stratified analyses, diagnostic accuracy remained consistent across sex and different age groups. Sensitivity was lower for heavy smokers (77.7%), OPC without lymph node involvement (74.4%) and the ARCAGE study (66.7%), while specificity decreased for cases with <10 pack-years (72.1%). The risk-factor model included study, year of diagnosis, age, sex, BMI, alcohol use, pack-years, TNM-T and TNM-N stage. HPV serology is a robust biomarker for HPV-driven OPC, and its diagnostic accuracy is independent of age and sex. Future research is suggested on the influence of smoking on HPV antibody levels.

Maternal major depression during early pregnancy is associated with impaired child executive functioning at 4.5 years of age.

BACKGROUND: Maternal depression is a serious condition that affects up to 1 in 7 pregnancies. Despite evidence linking maternal depression to pregnancy complications and adverse fetal outcomes, there remain large gaps in its identification and treatment. More work is needed to define the specific timing and severity of depression that most urgently requires intervention, where feasible, to protect maternal health and the developing fetus. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine whether the timing and severity of maternal depression and/or anxiety during pregnancy affect child executive functioning at age 4.5 years. Executive functioning in the preschool years is a strong predictor of both school readiness and long-term quality of life. STUDY DESIGN: This longitudinal observational pregnancy cohort study included a sample of 323 mother-child dyads taking part in the Ontario Birth Study, an open pregnancy cohort in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Maternal symptoms of depression and anxiety were assessed at 12 to 16 and 28 to 32 weeks of gestation and at the time of child testing at age 4.5 years using the 4-item Patient Health Questionnaire. Child executive functioning was measured during a home visit using standardized computerized administration of the Flanker test (a measure of attention) and the Dimensional Change Card Sort (a measure of cognitive flexibility). Stepwise linear regressions, controlling for possible confounding variables, were used to assess the predictive value of continuous measures of maternal depression and/or anxiety symptoms at each assessment time on the Flanker test and Dimensional Change Card Sort. Posthoc general linear models were used to assess whether maternal depression severity categories (no symptom, mild symptoms, or probable major depressive disorder) were helpful in identifying children at risk. RESULTS: Across all children, after controlling for potential confounds, greater maternal depressive symptoms at weeks 12 to 16 weeks of gestation predicted worse performance on both the Flanker test (ΔR2=0.058; P<.001) and the Dimensional Change Card Sort (ΔR2=0.017; P=.018). Posthoc general linear modeling further demonstrated that the children of mothers meeting the screening criteria for major depression in early pregnancy scored 11.3% lower on the Flanker test and 9.8% lower on the Dimensional Change Card Sort than the children of mothers without maternal depressive symptoms in early pregnancy. Mild depressive symptoms had no significant effect on executive function scores. There was no significant effect of anxiety symptoms or maternal antidepressant use in early pregnancy or pandemic conditions or maternal symptoms in later pregnancy or at the time of child testing on either the Flanker or Dimensional Change Card Sort results. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that fetal exposure to maternal major depression, but not milder forms of depression, at 12 to 16 weeks of gestation is associated with impaired executive functioning in the preschool years. Child executive functioning is crucial for school readiness and predicts long-term quality of life. This emphasizes an urgent need to improve the recognition and treatment of maternal major depression, particularly in early pregnancy, to limit its negative effects on the patient and on child cognitive development.