Antigenic drift and immunity gap explain reduction in protective responses against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) viruses during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional study of human sera collected in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023.

BACKGROUND: Non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a marked reduction in influenza infections globally. The absence of influenza has raised concerns of waning immunity, and potentially more severe influenza seasons after the pandemic. METHODS: To evaluate immunity towards influenza post-COVID-19 pandemic we have assessed influenza A epidemics in Norway from October 2016 to June 2023 and measured antibodies against circulating strains of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) in different age groups by hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assays in a total of 3364 serum samples collected in 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023. RESULTS: Influenza epidemics in Norway from October 2016 until June 2023 were predominately influenza As, with a mixture of A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) subtype predominance. We did not observe higher numbers of infections during the influenza epidemics following the COVID-19 pandemic than in pre-COVID-19 seasons. Frequencies of protective HAI titers against A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) viruses were reduced in sera collected in 2021 and 2022, compared to sera collected in 2019. The reduction could, however, largely be explained by antigenic drift of new virus strains, as protective HAI titers remained stable against the same strain from one season to the next. However, we observed the development of an immunity gap in the youngest children during the pandemic which resulted in a prominent reduction in HAI titers against A(H1N1)pdm09 in 2021 and 2022. The immunity gap was partially closed in sera collected in 2023 following the A(H1N1)pdm09-dominated influenza seasons of 2022/2023. During the 2022/2023 epidemic, drift variants of A(H1N1)pdm09 belonging to the 5a.2a.1 clade emerged, and pre-season HAI titers were significantly lower against this clade compared to the ancestral 5a.2 clade. CONCLUSION: The observed reduction in protective antibodies against A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) viruses post COVID-19 is best explained by antigenic drift of emerging viruses, and not waning of antibody responses in the general population. However, the absence of influenza during the pandemic resulted in an immunity gap in the youngest children. While this immunity gap was partially closed following the 2022/2023 influenza season, children with elevated risk of severe infection should be prioritized for vaccination.

Frequency and risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections in Norway: a nation-wide study, February 2020 to January 2022.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 reinfection rates have been shown to vary depending on the circulating variant, vaccination status and background immunity, as well as the time interval used to identify reinfections. This study describes the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections in Norway using different time intervals and assesses potential factors that could impact the risk of reinfections during the different variant waves. METHODS: We used linked individual-level data from national registries to conduct a retrospective cohort study including all cases with a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 from February 2020 to January 2022. Time intervals of 30, 60, 90 or 180 days between positive tests were used to define potential reinfections. A multivariable Cox regression model was used to assess the risk of reinfection in terms of variants adjusting for vaccination status, demographic factors, and underlying comorbidities. RESULTS: The reinfection rate varied between 0.2%, 0.6% and 5.9% during the Alpha, Delta and early Omicron waves, respectively. In the multivariable model, younger age groups were associated with a higher risk of reinfection compared to older age groups, whereas vaccination was associated with protection against reinfection. Moreover, the risk of reinfection followed a pattern similar to risk of first infection. Individuals infected early in the pandemic had higher risk of reinfection than individuals infected in more recent waves. CONCLUSIONS: Reinfections increased markedly during the Omicron wave. Younger individuals, and primary infections during earlier waves were associated with an increased reinfection risk compared to primary infections during more recent waves, whereas vaccination was a protective factor. Our results highlight the importance of age and post infection waning immunity and are relevant when evaluating vaccination polices.

Poor neutralizing antibody responses against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BQ.1.1 and XBB in Norway in October 2022.

New immune evasive variants of SARS-CoV-2 continue to emerge, potentially causing new waves of covid-19 disease. Here, we evaluate levels of neutralizing antibodies against isolates of Omicron variants, including BQ.1.1 and XBB, in sera harvested 3-4 weeks after vaccination or breakthrough infections. In addition, we evaluate neutralizing antibodies in 32 sera from October 2022, to evaluate immunity in Norwegian donors prior to the winter season. Most serum samples harvested in October 2022 had low levels of neutralizing antibodies against BQ.1.1 and especially XBB, explaining why these variants and their descendants have dominated in Norway during the 2022 and 2023 winter season.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron infection in adolescents, Norway, August 2021 to January 2022.

OBJECTIVES: We estimated the BNT162b2 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against any (symptomatic or not) SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron infection among adolescents (aged 12-17 years) in Norway from August 2021 to January 2022. METHODS: We used Cox proportional hazard models, where vaccine status was included as a time-varying covariate and models were adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, residence county, birth country, and living conditions. RESULTS: The VE against Delta infection peaked at 68% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 64-71%) and 62% (95% CI: 57-66%) in days 21-48 after the first dose among those aged 12-15 years and 16-17 years, respectively. Among those aged 16-17 years who received two doses, the VE against Delta infection peaked at 93% (95% CI: 90-95%) in days 35-62 and decreased to 84% (95% CI: 76-89%) in ≥63 days after vaccination. We did not observe a protective effect against Omicron infection after receiving one dose. Among those aged 16-17 years, the VE against Omicron infection peaked at 53% (95% CI: 43-62%) in 7-34 days after the second dose and decreased to 23% (95% CI: 3-40%) in ≥63 days after vaccination. CONCLUSION: We found a reduced protection after two BNT162b2 vaccine doses against any Omicron infection compared to Delta. Effectiveness decreased with time from vaccination for both variants. The impact of vaccination among adolescents on reducing infection and thus transmission is limited during the Omicron dominance.

Molecular Epidemiology of the Norwegian SARS-CoV-2 Delta Lineage AY.63.

Extensive genomic surveillance has given great insights into the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and emerging variants. During the summer months of 2021, Norway was dominated by the Pango lineage AY.63 which is a sub-lineage of the highly transmissible Delta variant. Strikingly, AY.63 did not spread in other countries to any significant extent. AY.63 carried a key mutation, A222V, in the spike protein, as well as the deletion of three residues in nsp1. Although these mutations are close to functionally important areas, we did not find any evidence that they induced higher fitness compared to other Delta lineages. This variant was introduced to Norway at a time when there were low levels of SARS-CoV-2 and contact-reducing measures were relaxed, which probably explains why the lineage rose so quickly. Furthermore, we found that the lack of imports of AY.63 from other countries probably led to the eventual demise of the lineage in Norway.

The burden of hospital-attended influenza in Norwegian children.

Background: Norwegian health authorities do not recommend universal pediatric vaccination against seasonal influenza. We aimed to estimate the incidence of influenza by age and underlying medical conditions in hospitalized Norwegian children aged <18 years. Methods: Active surveillance for influenza in children <18 years was implemented in five hospitals during 2015-18. Children with respiratory symptoms and/or fever were prospectively enrolled and tested for influenza. Surveillance data were linked to health registry data to estimate the national burden of influenza in hospitals. Results: In 309 (10%) out of 3,010 hospital contacts, the child tested positive for influenza, corresponding to an average incidence of 0.96 hospital-attended influenza cases per 1,000 children <18 years of age. Children <1 year of age (3.8 per 1,000 children) and children with underlying medical conditions (17 per 1,000 children with bronchopulmonary dysplasia) had the highest average incidence. Among <1 year old children, 3% tested positive for influenza, compared to 25% for children aged 6-17. Few children were vaccinated against influenza. Conclusions: Children <1 year of age and children with underlying medical conditions had a higher incidence of influenza requiring hospital treatment compared to the general population. Effective interventions against seasonal influenza for children in Norway should be considered.

Milder disease trajectory among COVID-19 patients hospitalised with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant compared with the Delta variant in Norway.

Using individual-level national registry data, we conducted a cohort study to estimate differences in the length of hospital stay, and risk of admission to an intensive care unit and in-hospital death among patients infected with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant, compared with patients infected with Delta variant in Norway. We included 409 (38%) patients infected with Omicron and 666 (62%) infected with Delta who were hospitalised with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as the main cause of hospitalisation between 6 December 2021 and 6 February 2022. Omicron patients had a 48% lower risk of intensive care admission (adjusted hazard ratios (aHR): 0.52, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.34-0.80) and a 56% lower risk of in-hospital death (aHR: 0.44, 95%CI: 0.24-0.79) compared with Delta patients. Omicron patients had a shorter length of stay (with or without ICU stay) compared with Delta patients in the age groups from 18 to 79 years and those who had at least completed their primary vaccination. This supports growing evidence of reduced disease severity among hospitalised Omicron patients compared with Delta patients.

Immune responses in Omicron SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection in vaccinated adults.

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant has more than 15 mutations in the receptor binding domain of the Spike protein enabling increased transmissibility and viral escape from antibodies in vaccinated individuals. It is unclear how vaccine immunity protects against Omicron infection. Here we show that vaccinated participants at a super-spreader event have robust recall response of humoral and pre-existing cellular immunity induced by the vaccines, and an emergent de novo T cell response to non-Spike antigens. Individuals with Omicron SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections have significantly increased activated SARS-CoV-2 wild type Spike-specific cytotoxic T cells, activated follicular helper (TFH) cells, functional T cell responses, boosted humoral responses, and rapid release of Spike and RBD-specific IgG+ B cell plasmablasts and memory B cells into circulation. Omicron breakthrough infection affords significantly increased de novo memory T cell responses to non-Spike viral antigens. Concerted T and B cell responses may provide durable and broad immunity.

Prevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in the Norwegian population, August 2021.

BACKGROUND: One year into the COVID-19 pandemic, the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Norway was still low. In January 2021, when the Norwegian COVID-19 vaccination campaign started, the national seroprevalence estimate of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was 3.2%. We have conducted a nationwide cross-sectional study in August 2021 to investigate the overall prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in Norway after 8 months of COVID-19 mass vaccination and a third wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: Residual sera were collected from laboratories across Norway in August 2021. In IgG antibodies against the spike protein, the spike receptor binding domain (RBD) and the nucleocapsid protein of SARS-CoV-2 were measured by a bead-based flow cytometric assay. RESULTS: In total, 1926 residual sera were collected from individuals aged 0-98 years; 55.1% were from women. The overall national estimated seroprevalence from vaccination and/or infection was 62.6% (credible interval [CrI] 60.1%-65.2%) based on having antibodies against both spike and RBD. Estimated seroprevalence increased with age. Among all samples, 11.7% had antibodies against nucleocapsid. For unvaccinated children <12 years, the seroprevalence estimate due to SARS-CoV-2 infection was 12.5% (95% CrI 9.3%-16.1%). Of seropositive samples from the unvaccinated children, 31.9% lacked anti-nucleocapsid antibodies. CONCLUSIONS: The high overall SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence estimates are in line with Norwegian registry data. Vaccination, not infection, contributed the most to the high seroprevalence in August 2021. Lack of antibodies against nucleocapsid should not automatically be interpreted as absence of previous infection as this could lead to underestimation of COVID-19 cases in seroprevalence studies.

Risk factors, immune response and whole-genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 in a cruise ship outbreak in Norway.

OBJECTIVE: To improve understanding of SARS-CoV-2-transmission and prevention measures on cruise ships, we investigated a Norwegian cruise ship outbreak from July to August 2020 using a multidisciplinary approach after a rapid outbreak response launched by local and national health authorities. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study among crew members using epidemiologic data and results from SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of nasopharynx-oropharynx samples, antibody analyses of blood samples, and whole-genome sequencing. RESULTS: We included 114 multinational crew members (71% participation), median age 36 years, and 69% male. The attack rate was 33%; 32 of 37 outbreak cases were seropositive 5-10 days after PCR. One PCR-negative participant was seropositive, suggesting a previous infection. Network-analysis showed clusters based on common exposures, including embarkation date, nationality, sharing a cabin with an infected cabin-mate (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 3.27; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.97-11.07, p = 0.057), and specific workplaces (mechanical operations: 9.17 [1.82-45.78], catering: 6.11 [1.83-20.38]). Breaches in testing, quarantine, and isolation practices before/during expeditions were reported. Whole-genome sequencing revealed lineage B.1.36, previously identified in Asia. Despite extensive sequencing, the continued transmission of B.1.36 in Norway was not detected. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings confirm the high risk of SARS-CoV-2-transmission on cruise ships related to workplace and cabin type and show that continued community transmission after the outbreak could be stopped by implementing immediate infection control measures at the final destination.

Reduced risk of hospitalisation among reported COVID-19 cases infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1 variant compared with the Delta variant, Norway, December 2021 to January 2022.

We included 39,524 COVID-19 Omicron and 51,481 Delta cases reported in Norway from December 2021 to January 2022. We estimated a 73% reduced risk of hospitalisation (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.27; 95% confidence interval: 0.20-0.36) for Omicron compared with Delta. Compared with unvaccinated groups, Omicron cases who had completed primary two-dose vaccination 7-179 days before diagnosis had a lower reduced risk than Delta (66% vs 93%). People vaccinated with three doses had a similar risk reduction (86% vs 88%).

Trends in seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and infection fatality rate in the Norwegian population through the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Infection with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 induces antibodies that can be used as a proxy for COVID-19. We present a repeated nationwide cross-sectional study assessing the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2, the infection fatality rate (IFR), and infection hospitalization rate (IHR) during the first year of the pandemic in Norway. METHODS: Residual serum samples were solicited in April/May 2020 (Round 1), in July/August 2020 (Round 2) and in January 2021 (Round 3). Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 were measured using a flow cytometer-based assay. Aggregate data on confirmed cases, COVID-19-associated deaths and hospitalizations were obtained from the Emergency preparedness registry for COVID-19 (Beredt C19), and the seroprevalence estimates were used to estimate IFR and IHR. RESULTS: Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 were measured in 4840 samples. The estimated seroprevalence increased from 0.8% (95% credible interval [CrI] 0.4%-1.3%) after the first wave of the pandemic (Rounds 1 and 2 combined) to 3.2% (95% CrI 2.3%-4.2%) (Round 3). The IFR and IHR were higher in the first wave than in the second wave and increased with age. The IFR was 0.2% (95% CrI 0.1%-0.3%), and IHR was 0.9% (95% CrI 0.6%-1.5%) for the second wave. CONCLUSIONS: The seroprevalence estimates show a cumulative increase of SARS-CoV-2 infections over time in the Norwegian population and suggest some under-recording of confirmed cases. The IFR and IHR were low, corresponding to the relatively low number of COVID-19-associated deaths and hospitalizations in Norway. Most of the Norwegian population was still susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection after the first year of the pandemic.

No difference in risk of hospitalization between reported cases of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and Alpha variant in Norway.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the risk of hospitalization among reported cases of the Delta variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) compared with the Alpha variant in Norway, and the risk of hospitalization by vaccination status. METHODS: A cohort study was conducted on laboratory-confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in Norway, diagnosed between 3 May and 15 August 2021. Adjusted risk ratios (aRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using multi-variable log-binomial regression, accounting for variant, vaccination status, demographic characteristics, week of sampling and underlying comorbidities. RESULTS: In total, 7977 cases of the Delta variant and 12,078 cases of the Alpha variant were included in this study. Overall, 347 (1.7%) cases were hospitalized. The aRR of hospitalization for the Delta variant compared with the Alpha variant was 0.97 (95% CI 0.76-1.23). Partially vaccinated cases had a 72% reduced risk of hospitalization (95% CI 59-82%), and fully vaccinated cases had a 76% reduced risk of hospitalization (95% CI 61-85%) compared with unvaccinated cases. CONCLUSIONS: No difference was found between the risk of hospitalization for Delta cases and Alpha cases in Norway. The results of this study support the notion that partially and fully vaccinated cases are highly protected against hospitalization with coronavirus disease 2019.

Outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in Norway, November to December 2021.

In late November 2021, an outbreak of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 following a Christmas party with 117 attendees was detected in Oslo, Norway. We observed an attack rate of 74% and most cases developed symptoms. As at 13 December, none have been hospitalised. Most participants were 30-50 years old. Ninety-six percent of them were fully vaccinated. These findings corroborate reports that the Omicron variant may be more transmissible, and that vaccination may be less effective in preventing infection compared with Delta.

Comprehensive Contact Tracing, Testing and Sequencing Show Limited Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 between Children in Schools in Norway, August 2020 to May 2021.

The role of children in the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in schools has been a topic of controversy. In this study among school contacts of SARS-CoV-2 positive children in 43 contact-investigations, we investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Norway, August 2020-May 2021. All participants were tested twice within seven to ten days, using SARS-CoV-2 PCR on home-sampled saliva. Positive samples were whole genome sequenced. Among the 559 child contacts, eight tested positive (1.4%, 95% CI 0.62-2.80), with no significant difference between primary (1.0%, 95% CI 0.27-2.53) and secondary schools (2.6%, 95% CI 0.70-6.39), p = 0.229, nor by viral strain, non-Alpha (1.4%, 95% CI 0.50-2.94) and Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) (1.7%, 95% CI 0.21-5.99), p = 0.665. One adult contact (1/100) tested positive. In 34 index cases, we detected 13 different SARS-CoV-2 Pango lineage variants, with B.1.1.7 being most frequent. In the eight contact-investigations with SARS-CoV-2 positive contacts, four had the same sequence identity as the index, one had no relation, and three were inconclusive. With mitigation measures in place, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 from children in schools is limited. By excluding contact-investigations with adult cases known at the time of enrolment, our data provide a valid estimate on the role of children in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in schools.

Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: A Prospective Longitudinal Study Showing Higher Viral Load and Increased Transmissibility of the Alpha Variant Compared to Previous Strains.

We studied the secondary attack rate (SAR), risk factors, and precautionary practices of household transmission in a prospective, longitudinal study. We further compared transmission between the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant and non-Variant of Concern (non-VOC) viruses. From May 2020 throughout April 2021, we recruited 70 confirmed COVID-19 cases with 146 household contacts. Participants donated biological samples eight times over 6 weeks and answered questionnaires. SARS-CoV-2 infection was detected by real-time RT-PCR. Whole genome sequencing and droplet digital PCR were used to establish virus variant and viral load. SARS-CoV-2 transmission occurred in 60% of the households, and the overall SAR for household contacts was 50%. The SAR was significantly higher for the Alpha variant (78%) compared with non-VOC viruses (43%) and was associated with a higher viral load. SAR was higher in household contacts aged ≥40 years (69%) than in younger contacts (40-47%), and for contacts of primary cases with loss of taste/smell. Children had lower viral loads and were more often asymptomatic than adults. Sleeping separately from the primary case reduced the risk of transmission. In conclusion, we found substantial household transmission, particularly for the Alpha variant. Precautionary practices seem to reduce SAR, but preventing household transmission may become difficult with more contagious variants, depending on vaccine use and effectiveness.

The impact of global lineage dynamics, border restrictions, and emergence of the B.1.1.7 lineage on the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Norway.

As the COVID-19 pandemic swept through an immunologically naïve human population, academics and public health professionals scrambled to establish methods and platforms for genomic surveillance and data sharing. This offered a rare opportunity to study the ecology and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 over the course of the ongoing pandemic. Here, we use population genetic and phylogenetic methodology to characterize the population dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and reconstruct patterns of virus introductions and local transmission in Norway against this backdrop. The analyses demonstrated that the epidemic in Norway was largely import driven and characterized by the repeated introduction, establishment, and suppression of new transmission lineages. This pattern changed with the arrival of the B.1.1.7 lineage, which was able to establish a stable presence concomitant with the imposition of severe border restrictions.

Increased risk of hospitalisation and intensive care admission associated with reported cases of SARS-CoV-2 variants B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 in Norway, December 2020 -May 2021.

INTRODUCTION: Since their emergence, SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 have spread worldwide. We estimated the risk of hospitalisation and admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) for infections with B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 in Norway, compared to infections with non-VOC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using linked individual-level data from national registries, we conducted a cohort study on laboratory-confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in Norway diagnosed between 28 December 2020 and 2 May 2021. Variants were identified based on whole genome sequencing, partial sequencing by Sanger sequencing or PCR screening for selected targets. The outcome was hospitalisation or ICU admission. We calculated adjusted risk ratios (aRR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using multivariable binomial regression to examine the association between SARS-CoV-2 variants B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 with i) hospital admission and ii) ICU admission compared to non-VOC. RESULTS: We included 23,169 cases of B.1.1.7, 548 B.1.351 and 4,584 non-VOC. Overall, 1,017 cases were hospitalised (3.6%) and 206 admitted to ICU (0.7%). B.1.1.7 was associated with a 1.9-fold increased risk of hospitalisation (aRR 95%CI 1.6-2.3) and a 1.8-fold increased risk of ICU admission (aRR 95%CI 1.2-2.8) compared to non-VOC. Among hospitalised cases, no difference was found in the risk of ICU admission between B.1.1.7 and non-VOC. B.1.351 was associated with a 2.4-fold increased risk of hospitalisation (aRR 95%CI 1.7-3.3) and a 2.7-fold increased risk of ICU admission (aRR 95%CI 1.2-6.5) compared to non-VOC. DISCUSSION: Our findings add to the growing evidence of a higher risk of severe disease among persons infected with B.1.1.7 or B.1.351. This highlights the importance of prevention and control measures to reduce transmission of these VOC in society, particularly ongoing vaccination programmes, and preparedness plans for hospital surge capacity.

Vaccine effectiveness against infection with the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant, Norway, April to August 2021.

Some variants of SARS-CoV-2 are associated with increased transmissibility, increased disease severity or decreased vaccine effectiveness (VE). In this population-based cohort study (n = 4,204,859), the Delta variant was identified in 5,430 (0.13%) individuals, of whom 84 were admitted to hospital. VE against laboratory confirmed infection with the Delta variant was 22.4% among partly vaccinated (95% confidence interval (CI): 17.0-27.4) and 64.6% (95% CI: 60.6-68.2) among fully vaccinated individuals, compared with 54.5% (95% CI: 50.4-58.3) and 84.4% (95%CI: 81.8-86.5) against the Alpha variant.