Handling missing data in research.

Missing data are an inevitable part of research and lead to a decrease in the size of the analyzable population, and biased and imprecise estimates. In this article, we discuss the types of missing data, methods to handle missing data and suggest ways in which missing data can be minimized.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in vaccine-naïve participants from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea, Liberia, and Mali.

OBJECTIVES: The InVITE study, starting in August 2021, was designed to examine the immunogenicity of different vaccine regimens in several countries including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea, Liberia, and Mali. Prevaccination baseline samples were used to obtain estimates of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection in the study population. METHODS: Adult participants were enrolled upon receipt of their initial COVID-19 vaccine from August 2021 to June 2022. Demographic and comorbidity data were collected at the time of baseline sample collection. SARS-CoV-2 serum anti-Spike and anti-Nucleocapsid antibody levels were measured. RESULTS: Samples tested included 1016, 375, 663, and 776, from DRC, Guinea, Liberia, and Mali, respectively. Only 0.8% of participants reported a prior positive SARS-CoV-2 test, while 83% and 68% had anti-Spike and anti-Nucleocapsid antibodies, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Overall SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 86% over the accrual period, suggesting a high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Low rates of prior positive test results may be explained by asymptomatic infections, limited access to SARS-CoV-2 test kits and health care, and inadequate surveillance. These seroprevalence rates are from a convenience sample and may not be representative of the population in general, underscoring the need for timely, well-conducted surveillance as part of global pandemic preparedness.

Mucosal correlates of protection after influenza viral challenge of vaccinated and unvaccinated healthy volunteers.

The induction of systemic antibody titers against hemagglutinin has long been the main focus of influenza vaccination strategies, but mucosal immunity has also been shown to play a key role in the protection against respiratory viruses. By vaccinating and challenging healthy volunteers, we demonstrated that inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) modestly reduced the rate of influenza while predominantly boosting serum antibody titers against hemagglutinin (HA) and HA stalk, a consequence of the low neuraminidase (NA) content of IIV and the intramuscular route of administration. The viral challenge induced nasal and serum responses against both HA and NA. Correlations between mucosal IgA and serum IgG against specific antigens were low, whether before or after challenge, suggesting a compartmentalization of immune responses. Even so, volunteers who developed viral shedding for multiple days had lower baseline titers across both systemic and mucosal compartments as compared to those with no shedding or a single day of shedding. Regression analysis showed that pre-challenge HA inhibition titers were the most consistent correlate of protection across clinical outcomes combining shedding and symptoms, with NA inhibition titers and HA IgG levels only predicting the duration of shedding. Despite the inclusion of data from multiple binding and functional antibody assays against HA and NA performed on both serum and nasal samples, multivariate models were unable to account for the variability in outcomes, emphasizing our imperfect understanding of immune correlates in influenza and the importance of refining models with assessments of innate and cellular immune responses.IMPORTANCEThe devastating potential of influenza has been well known for over 100 years. Despite the development of vaccines since the middle of the 20th century, influenza continues to be responsible for substantial global morbidity and mortality. To develop next-generation vaccines with enhanced effectiveness, we must synthesize our understanding of the complex immune mechanisms culminating in protection. Our study outlines the differences in immune responses to influenza vaccine and influenza infection, identifying potential gaps in vaccine-induced immunity, particularly at the level of the nasal mucosa. Furthermore, this research underscores the need to refine our imperfect models while recognizing potential pitfalls in past and future attempts to identify and measure correlates of protection.

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in a Large US population Over a Period of 12 Months.

Due to a combination of asymptomatic or undiagnosed infections, the proportion of the United States population infected with SARS-CoV-2 was unclear from the beginning of the pandemic. We previously established a platform to screen for SARS-CoV-2 positivity across a representative proportion of the US population, from which we reported that almost 17 million Americans were estimated to have had undocumented infections in the Spring of 2020. Since then, vaccine rollout and prevalence of different SARS-CoV-2 variants have further altered seropositivity trends within the United States population. To explore the longitudinal impacts of the pandemic and vaccine responses on seropositivity, we re-enrolled participants from our baseline study in a 6- and 12- month follow-up study to develop a longitudinal antibody profile capable of representing seropositivity within the United States during a critical period just prior to and during the initiation of vaccine rollout. Initial measurements showed that, since July 2020, seropositivity elevated within this population from 4.8% at baseline to 36.2% and 89.3% at 6 and 12 months, respectively. We also evaluated nucleocapsid seropositivity and compared to spike seropositivity to identify trends in infection versus vaccination relative to baseline. These data serve as a window into a critical timeframe within the COVID-19 pandemic response and serve as a resource that could be used in subsequent respiratory illness outbreaks.

Challenges of conducting an international observational study to assess immunogenicity of multiple COVID-19 vaccines.

The International Study on COVID-19 Vaccines to Assess Immunogenicity, Reactogenicity, and Efficacy is an observational study to assess the immunogenicity of COVID-19 vaccines used in Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea, Indonesia, Liberia, Mali, Mexico, and Mongolia. The study, which has enrolled 5,401 adults, is prospectively following participants for approximately two years. This study is important as it has enrolled participants from resource-limited settings that have largely been excluded from COVID-19 research studies during the pandemic. There are significant challenges to mounting a study during an international health emergency, especially in resource-limited settings. Here we focus on challenges and hurdles encountered during the planning and implementation of the study with regard to study logistics, national vaccine policies, pandemic-induced and supply chain constraints, and cultural beliefs. We also highlight the successful mitigation of these challenges through the team's proactive thinking, collaborative approach, and innovative solutions. This study serves as an example of how established programs in resource-limited settings can be leveraged to contribute to biomedical research during a pandemic response. Lessons learned from this study can be applied to other studies mounted to respond rapidly during a global health crisis and will contribute to capacity for stronger pandemic preparedness in the future when there is a crucial need for urgent response and data collection.

Phase 1 trial to model primary, secondary, and tertiary dengue using a monovalent vaccine.

BACKGROUND: The four co-circulating and immunologically interactive dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) pose a unique challenge to vaccine design because sub-protective immunity can increase the risk of severe dengue disease. Existing dengue vaccines have lower efficacy in DENV seronegative individuals but higher efficacy in DENV exposed individuals. There is an urgent need to identify immunological measures that are strongly associated with protection against viral replication and disease following sequential exposure to distinct serotypes. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a phase 1 trial wherein healthy adults with neutralizing antibodies to zero (seronegative), one non-DENV3 (heterotypic), or more than one (polytypic) DENV serotype will be vaccinated with the live attenuated DENV3 monovalent vaccine rDEN3Δ30/31-7164. We will examine how pre-vaccine host immunity influences the safety and immunogenicity of DENV3 vaccination in a non-endemic population. We hypothesize that the vaccine will be safe and well tolerated, and all groups will have a significant increase in the DENV1-4 neutralizing antibody geometric mean titer between days 0 and 28. Compared to the seronegative group, the polytypic group will have lower mean peak vaccine viremia, due to protection conferred by prior DENV exposure, while the heterotypic group will have higher mean peak viremia, due to mild enhancement. Secondary and exploratory endpoints include characterizing serological, innate, and adaptive cell responses; evaluating proviral or antiviral contributions of DENV-infected cells; and immunologically profiling the transcriptome, surface proteins, and B and T cell receptor sequences and affinities of single cells in both peripheral blood and draining lymph nodes sampled via serial image-guided fine needle aspiration. DISCUSSION: This trial will compare the immune responses after primary, secondary, and tertiary DENV exposure in naturally infected humans living in non-endemic areas. By evaluating dengue vaccines in a new population and modeling the induction of cross-serotypic immunity, this work may inform vaccine evaluation and broaden potential target populations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT05691530 registered on January 20, 2023.

Etiology, clinical characteristics, and risk factors associated with severe influenza-like illnesses in Mexican adults.

Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors associated with severe influenza-like illness (ILI) in Mexican adults that could be useful to clinicians when assessing patients with ILI. Methods: Data from adult patients enrolled from 2010 through 2014 in ILI002 - a prospective hospital-based observational cohort study - were analyzed. Etiology and clinical characteristics were compared between cases of severe ILI (defined as hospitalization and/or death) and cases of non-severe ILI. Results: Overall, 1428 (39.0%) out of a total 3664 cases of ILI were classified as severe. Adjusted analyses showed a higher risk of severe ILI associated with signs and symptoms related to lower tract infection, i.e. cough with sputum (odds ratio (OR) 2.037, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.206-3.477; P = 0.008), dyspnea (OR 5.044, 95% CI 2.99-8.631; and shortness of breath (OR 5.24, 95% CI 3.0839.124; P < 0.001), and with increases in lactate dehydrogenase (OR 4.426, 95% CI 2.321-8.881; P < 0.001) and C-reactive protein (OR 3.618, 95% CI 2.5955.196; P < 0.001). Further, there was an increased risk of severe ILI with a longer time between symptom onset and inclusion (OR 1.108, 95% CI 1.049-1.172; P < 0.001) and with chronic steroid use (OR 14.324, 95% CI 8.059-26.216; P < 0.001). Conclusions: Respiratory viruses can cause severe ILI. The results of this study highlight the importance of evaluating data compatible with lower tract involvement and previous use of immunosuppressants at baseline, because patients meeting these conditions may develop severe illness.

Monitoring Multiple U.S. Government-Supported Covid-19 Vaccine Trials.

Monitoring U.S. Government-Supported Covid-19 Vaccine TrialsOperation Warp Speed was a partnership created to accelerate the development of Covid-19 vaccines. The National Institutes of Health oversaw one data and safety monitoring board to review/monitor all Operation Warp Speed trials. This article describes the challenges faced in monitoring these trials and provides ideas for future similar endeavors.

Safety and immunogenicity of AGS-v PLUS, a mosquito saliva peptide vaccine against arboviral diseases: A randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase 1 trial.

BACKGROUND: Immunity to mosquito salivary proteins could provide protection against multiple mosquito-borne diseases and significantly impact public health. We evaluated the safety and immunogenicity of AGS-v PLUS, a mosquito salivary peptide vaccine, in healthy adults 18-50 years old. METHODS: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase 1 study of AGS-v PLUS administered subcutaneously on Days 1 and 22 at the Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health, Baltimore, MD, USA. Participants were block randomized 1:1:1:1:1 to two doses saline placebo, two doses AGS-v PLUS, AGS-v PLUS/ISA-51 and saline placebo, two doses AGS-v PLUS/ISA-51, or two doses AGS-v PLUS/Alhydrogel. Primary endpoints were safety (all participants receiving ≥1 injection) and antibody and cytokine responses (all participants with day 43 samples), analysed by intention to treat. FINDINGS: Between 26 August 2019 and 25 February 2020, 51 participants were enrolled and randomized, 11 into the single dose AGS-v PLUS/ISA-51 group and ten in other groups. Due to COVID-19, 15 participants did not return for day 43 samplings. Participants experienced no treatment-emergent or serious adverse events. All solicited symptoms in 2/10 placebo recipients and 22/41 AGS-v PLUS recipients after dose one and 1/10 placebo recipients and 22/41 AGS-v PLUS recipients after dose two were mild/moderate except for one severe fever the day after vaccination (placebo group). Only injection site pain was more common in vaccine groups (15/51 after dose 1 and 11/51 after dose 2) versus placebo. Compared to placebo, all vaccine groups had significantly greater fold change in anti-AGS-v PLUS IgG and IFN-É£ from baseline. INTERPRETATION: AGS-v PLUS had favourable safety profile and induced robust immune responses. Next steps will determine if findings translate into clinical efficacy against mosquito-borne diseases. FUNDING: UK Department of Health and Social Care.

Rank correlation inferences for clustered data with small sample size.

This paper develops methods to test for associations between two variables with clustered data using a U-Statistic approach with a second-order approximation to the variance of the parameter estimate for the test statistic. The tests that are presented are for clustered versions of: Pearsons χ 2 test, the Spearman rank correlation and Kendall's τ for continuous data or ordinal data and for alternative measures of Kendall's τ that allow for ties in the data. Shih and Fay use the U-Statistic approach but only consider a first-order approximation. The first-order approximation has inflated significance level in scenarios with small sample sizes. We derive the test statistics using the second-order approximations aiming to improve the type I error rates. The method applies to data where clusters have the same number of measurements for each variable or where one of the variables may be measured once per cluster while the other variable may be measured multiple times. We evaluate the performance of the test statistics through simulation with small sample sizes. The methods are all available in the R package cluscor.

Efficacy of Cochleated Amphotericin B in Mouse and Human Mucocutaneous Candidiasis.

Candida albicans causes debilitating, often azole-resistant, infections in patients with chronic mucocutaneous candidiasis (CMC). Amphotericin B (AMB) resistance is rare, but AMB use is limited by parenteral administration and nephrotoxicity. In this study, we evaluated cochleated AMB (CAMB), a new oral AMB formulation, in mouse models of oropharyngeal candidiasis (OPC) and vulvovaginal candidiasis (VVC) and in patients with azole-resistant CMC. OPC and VVC were modeled in Act1-/- mice, and mucosal tissue fungal burden was assessed after once-daily treatment with CAMB, vehicle, or AMB-deoxycholate (AMB-d). Four patients with azole-resistant CMC enrolled in a phase 2 CAMB dose-escalation study. The primary endpoint was clinical improvement at 2 weeks followed by optional extension for long-term CMC suppression to assess safety and efficacy. CAMB-treated mice had significantly reduced tongue and vaginal fungal burdens compared to vehicle-treated mice and exhibited comparable fungal burden reduction relative to AMB-d-treated mice. All CAMB-treated patients reached clinical efficacy by 2 weeks, three at 400 mg twice daily and one at 200 mg twice-daily dosing. All patients continued to the extension phase, with three having sustained clinical improvement of OPC and esophageal candidiasis (EC) for up to 60 months. One patient had a relapse of esophageal symptoms at week 24 and was withdrawn from further study. Clinical responses were not seen for onychomycosis or VVC. CAMB was safe and well-tolerated, without any evidence of nephrotoxicity. In summary, oral CAMB reduced tongue and vaginal fungal burdens during murine candidiasis. A proof-of-concept clinical trial in human CMC showed efficacy with good tolerability and safety. This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under identifier NCT02629419.

A Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Crossover Study of Magnesium Supplementation in Patients with XMEN Disease.

X-linked MAGT1 deficiency with increased susceptibility to Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection and N-linked glycosylation defect (XMEN) disease is an inborn error of immunity caused by loss-of-function mutations in the magnesium transporter 1 (MAGT1) gene. The original studies of XMEN patients focused on impaired magnesium regulation, leading to decreased EBV-cytotoxicity and the loss of surface expression of the activating receptor "natural killer group 2D" (NKG2D) on CD8+ T cells and NK cells. In vitro studies showed that supraphysiological supplementation of magnesium rescued these defects. Observational studies in 2 patients suggested oral magnesium supplementation could decrease EBV viremia. Hence, we performed a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, crossover study in 2 parts. In part 1, patients received either oral magnesium L-threonate (MLT) or placebo for 12 weeks followed by 12 weeks of the other treatment. Part 2 began with 3 days of high-dose intravenous (IV) magnesium sulfate (MgSO4) followed by open-label MLT for 24 weeks. One EBV-infected and 3 EBV-naïve patients completed part 1. One EBV-naïve patient was removed from part 2 of the study due to asymptomatic elevation of liver enzymes during IV MgSO4. No change in EBV or NKG2D status was observed. In vitro magnesium supplementation experiments in cells from 14 XMEN patients failed to significantly rescue NKG2D expression and the clinical trial was stopped. Although small, this study indicates magnesium supplementation is unlikely to be an effective therapeutic option in XMEN disease.

Sex Differences in Influenza: The Challenge Study Experience.

BACKGROUND: Preclinical animal studies and retrospective human studies suggest that adult females have worse outcomes from influenza than males. Prospective studies in humans are missing. METHODS: Data from 164 healthy volunteers who underwent influenza A/California/04/2009/H1N1 challenge were compiled to compare differences between sexes. Baseline characteristics, including hormone levels, hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) titers, neuraminidase inhibition (NAI) titers, and outcomes after challenge were compared. Linear and logistic regression models were built to determine significant predictor variables with respect to outcomes of interest. RESULTS: HAI titers were similar between the sexes, but NAI titers were higher in males than females at 4 weeks and 8 weeks postchallenge. Females were more likely to have symptoms (mean, 0.96 vs 0.80; P = .003) and to have a higher number of symptoms (median, 3 vs 4; P = .011) than males. Linear and logistic regression models showed that prechallenge NAI titers, but not HAI titers or sex hormone levels, were predictive of all shedding and symptom outcomes of interest. CONCLUSIONS: Females in our cohorts were more likely to be symptomatic and to have a higher number of symptoms than males. NAI titers predicted all outcomes of interest and may explain differential outcomes between the sexes.

Different epidemiological profiles in patients with Zika and dengue infection in Tapachula, Chiapas in Mexico (2016-2018): an observational, prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The introduction of Zika and chikungunya to dengue hyperendemic regions increased interest in better understanding characteristics of these infections. We conducted a cohort study in Mexico to evaluate the natural history of Zika infection. We describe here the frequency of Zika, chikungunya and dengue virus infections immediately after Zika introduction in Mexico, and baseline characteristics of participants for each type of infection. METHODS: Prospective, observational cohort evaluating the natural history of Zika virus infection in the Mexico-Guatemala border area. Patients with fever, rash or both, meeting the modified criteria of PAHO for probable Zika cases were enrolled (June 2016-July 2018) and followed-up for 6 months. We collected data on sociodemographic, environmental exposure, clinical and laboratory characteristics. Diagnosis was established based on viral RNA identification in serum and urine samples using RT-PCR for Zika, chikungunya, and dengue. We describe the baseline sociodemographic and environmental exposure characteristics of participants according to diagnosis, and the frequency of these infections over a two-year period immediately after Zika introduction in Mexico. RESULTS: We enrolled 427 participants. Most patients (n = 307, 65.7%) had an acute illness episode with no identified pathogen (UIE), 37 (8%) Zika, 82 (17.6%) dengue, and 1 (0.2%) chikungunya. In 2016 Zika predominated, declined in 2017 and disappeared in 2018; while dengue increased after 2017. Patients with dengue were more likely to be men, younger, and with lower education than those with Zika and UIE. They also reported closer contact with water sources, and with other people diagnosed with dengue. Participants with Zika reported sexual exposure more frequently than people with dengue and UIE. Zika was more likely to be identified in urine while dengue was more likely found in blood in the first seven days of symptoms; but PCR results for both were similar at day 7-14 after symptom onset. CONCLUSIONS: During the first 2 years of Zika introduction to this dengue hyper-endemic region, frequency of Zika peaked and fell over a two-year period; while dengue progressively increased with a predominance in 2018. Different epidemiologic patterns between Zika, dengue and UIE were observed. Trial registration Clinical.Trials.gov (NCT02831699).

Undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and delayed implementation of diagnostics have led to poorly defined viral prevalence rates in the United States and elsewhere. To address this, we analyzed seropositivity in 9089 adults in the United States who had not been diagnosed previously with COVID-19. Individuals with characteristics that reflected the U.S. population (n = 27,716) were selected by quota sampling from 462,949 volunteers. Enrolled participants (n = 11,382) provided medical, geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic information and dried blood samples. Survey questions coincident with the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey, a large probability-based national survey, were used to adjust for selection bias. Most blood samples (88.7%) were collected between 10 May and 31 July 2020 and were processed using ELISA to measure seropositivity (IgG and IgM antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and the spike protein receptor binding domain). The overall weighted undiagnosed seropositivity estimate was 4.6% (95% CI, 2.6 to 6.5%), with race, age, sex, ethnicity, and urban/rural subgroup estimates ranging from 1.1% to 14.2%. The highest seropositivity estimates were in African American participants; younger, female, and Hispanic participants; and residents of urban centers. These data indicate that there were 4.8 undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infections for every diagnosed case of COVID-19, and an estimated 16.8 million infections were undiagnosed by mid-July 2020 in the United States.

Data and Safety Monitoring of COVID-19 Vaccine Clinical Trials.

To speed the development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2, the United States Federal Government has funded multiple phase 3 trials of candidate vaccines. A single 11-member data and safety monitoring board (DSMB) monitors all government-funded trials to ensure coordinated oversight, promote harmonized designs, and allow shared insights related to safety across trials. DSMB reviews encompass 3 domains: (1) the conduct of trials, including overall and subgroup accrual and data quality and completeness; (2) safety, including individual events of concern and comparisons by randomized group; and (3) interim analyses of efficacy when event-driven milestones are met. Challenges have included the scale and pace of the trials, the frequency of safety events related to the combined enrollment of over 100 000 participants, many of whom are older adults or have comorbid conditions that place them at independent risk of serious health events, and the politicized environment in which the trials have taken place.

Comparison of the Impact of Zika and Dengue Virus Infection, and Other Acute Illnesses of Unidentified Origin on Cognitive Functions in a Prospective Cohort in Chiapas Mexico.

Zika has been associated with a variety of severe neurologic manifestations including meningitis and encephalitis. We hypothesized that it may also cause mild to subclinical neurocognitive alterations during acute infection or over the long term. In this observational cohort study, we explored whether Zika cause subclinical or mild neurocognitive alterations, estimate its frequency and duration, and compare it to other acute illnesses in a cohort of people with suspected Zika infection, in the region of Tapachula in Chiapas, Mexico during 2016-2018. We enrolled patients who were at least 12 years old with suspected Zika virus infection and followed them up for 6 months. During each visit participants underwent a complete clinical exam, including a screening test for neurocognitive dysfunction (Montreal Cognitive Assessment score). We enrolled 406 patients [37 with Zika, 73 with dengue and 296 with other acute illnesses of unidentified origin (AIUO)]. We observed a mild and transient impact over cognitive functions in patients with Zika, dengue and with other AIUO. The probability of having an abnormal MoCA score (<26 points) was significantly higher in patients with Zika and AIUO than in those with dengue. Patients with Zika and AIUO had lower memory scores than patients with dengue (Zika vs. Dengue: -0.378, 95% CI-0.678 to -0.078; p = 0.014: Zika vs. AIUO 0.264, 95% CI 0.059, 0.469; p = 0.012). The low memory performance in patients with Zika and AIUO accounts for most of the differences in the overall MoCA score when compared with patients with dengue. Our results show a decrease in cognitive function during acute illness and provides no evidence to support the hypothesis that Zika might cause neurocognitive alterations longer than the period of acute infection or different to other infectious diseases. While effects on memory or perhaps other cognitive functions over the long term are possible, larger studies using more refined tools for neurocognitive functioning assessment are needed to identify these. Trial Registration: NCT02831699.

Serum and Cervicovaginal Fluid Antibody Profiling in Herpes Simplex Virus-Seronegative Recipients of the HSV529 Vaccine.

Previous herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) vaccines have not prevented genital herpes. Concerns have been raised about the choice of antigen, the type of antibody induced by the vaccine, and whether antibody is present in the genital tract where infection occurs. We reported results of a trial of an HSV-2 replication-defective vaccine, HSV529, that induced serum neutralizing antibody responses in 78% of HSV-1-/HSV-2- vaccine recipients. Here we show that HSV-1-/HSV-2- vaccine recipients developed antibodies to epitopes of several viral proteins; however, fewer antibody epitopes were detected in vaccine recipients compared with naturally infected persons. HSV529 induced antibodies that mediated HSV-2-specific natural killer (NK) cell activation. Depletion of glycoprotein D (gD)-binding antibody from sera reduced neutralizing titers by 62% and NK cell activation by 81%. HSV-2 gD antibody was detected in cervicovaginal fluid at about one-third the level of that in serum. A vaccine that induces potent serum antibodies transported to the genital tract might reduce HSV genital infection.

Mapping a Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity in the United States.

Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and delayed implementation of diagnostics have led to poorly defined viral prevalence rates. To address this, we analyzed seropositivity in US adults who have not previously been diagnosed with COVID-19. Individuals with characteristics that reflect the US population (n = 11,382) and who had not previously been diagnosed with COVID-19 were selected by quota sampling from 241,424 volunteers (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04334954). Enrolled participants provided medical, geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic information and 9,028 blood samples. The majority (88.7%) of samples were collected between May 10th and July 31st, 2020. Samples were analyzed via ELISA for anti-Spike and anti-RBD antibodies. Estimation of seroprevalence was performed by using a weighted analysis to reflect the US population. We detected an undiagnosed seropositivity rate of 4.6% (95% CI: 2.6 - 6.5%). There was distinct regional variability, with heightened seropositivity in locations of early outbreaks. Subgroup analysis demonstrated that the highest estimated undiagnosed seropositivity within groups was detected in younger participants (ages 18-45, 5.9%), females (5.5%), Black/African American (14.2%), Hispanic (6.1%), and Urban residents (5.3%), and lower undiagnosed seropositivity in those with chronic diseases. During the first wave of infection over the spring/summer of 2020 an estimate of 4.6% of adults had a prior undiagnosed SARS-CoV-2 infection. These data indicate that there were 4.8 (95% CI: 2.8-6.8) undiagnosed cases for every diagnosed case of COVID-19 during this same time period in the United States, and an estimated 16.8 million undiagnosed cases by mid-July 2020.