Fishers' multidimensional knowledge advances fisheries and aquatic science.

Fishers' Indigenous and local knowledge (ILK) has multidimensional contributions to improve fisheries and aquatic ecosystems science, ranging from algae to whales and including management, conservation, ecology, and impact assessment. The challenges are to sustain this knowledge, recognize its value, and to include ILK holders in resource management and decision-making.

Making a Difference: Planning for Engaged Participation in Environmental Research.

Despite the rapid and accelerating rate of global environmental changes, too often research that has the potential to inform more sustainable futures remains disconnected from the context in which it could be used. Though transdisciplinary approaches (TDA) are known to overcome this disconnect, institutional barriers frequently prevent their deployment. Here we use insights from a qualitative comparative analysis of five case studies to develop a process for helping researchers and funders conceptualize and implement socially engaged research within existing institutional structures. The process we propose is meant to help researchers achieve societal as well as scientific outcomes relatively early in a project, as an end in itself or en route to greater engagement later. If projects that have a strong foundation of dialog and shared power wish to use TDA within current institutional and academic structures, we suggest that they focus on three process-based factors to increase their chances for success: (1) the maturity of relationships within a collaboration, (2) the level of context knowledge present within the collaborative team, and (3) the intensity of the engagement efforts within the project.

A framework for assessing food-energy-water security: A FEW case studies from rural Alaska.

Food, energy, and water (FEW) are basic needs for well-being and quality of life. Assessing FEW security allows residents, communities, and policy makers to make informed decisions about how to sustain and improve well-being. We have developed a FEW security assessment framework that examines four components of security: availability, access, quality, and preference. With the help of local community members, we interviewed 114 households in three rural Alaska communities to assess FEW security, drivers and outcomes of FEW security, and potential interactions among FEW components and with renewable energy (RE) developments. While FEW security was high overall, preference and quality, especially for food, was lower. Food harvested from the local environment (i.e. subsistence) was necessary to include in security assessments given that 24% of participants reported insecurity when asked about contemporary sources (i.e. purchased) versus 5% reporting insecurity for subsistence food sources (i.e., harvested). The major influences on FEW security tended to originate from outside the community, including factors such as transportation, income, fuel prices, and weather. One internal factor, health, was both a driver and an outcome of FEW security. Satisfaction with RE varied (42%-68%) with dissatisfaction due to unreliability, uncertainty of the economic benefit, desire for other types of RE, or wanting more RE (n = 6). Communication about RE projects was key to managing expectations, promoting knowledge, and identifying benefits for residents. Participants did not identify linkages between RE and FEW security. Our assessment tool can be used by communities and policy makers to contextualize FEW security into more insightful and specific components, allowing for identification of attainable actions to improve FEW security and thus individual and community well-being.

Societal implications of a changing Arctic Ocean.

The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid change: sea ice is being lost, waters are warming, coastlines are eroding, species are moving into new areas, and more. This paper explores the many ways that a changing Arctic Ocean affects societies in the Arctic and around the world. In the Arctic, Indigenous Peoples are again seeing their food security threatened and cultural continuity in danger of disruption. Resource development is increasing as is interest in tourism and possibilities for trans-Arctic maritime trade, creating new opportunities and also new stresses. Beyond the Arctic, changes in sea ice affect mid-latitude weather, and Arctic economic opportunities may re-shape commodities and transportation markets. Rising interest in the Arctic is also raising geopolitical tensions about the region. What happens next depends in large part on the choices made within and beyond the Arctic concerning global climate change and industrial policies and Arctic ecosystems and cultures.

MicroFEWs: A Food-Energy-Water Systems Approach to Renewable Energy Decisions in Islanded Microgrid Communities in Rural Alaska.

In recent years, there has been increased recognition of the importance of a nexus approach to optimize food, energy, and water (FEW) security at regional and global scales. Remote communities in the Arctic and Subarctic regions in Alaska provide unique examples of closed and isolated systems, wherein the FEW nexus not only needs to be examined to lend resilience to these vulnerable communities but that could also serve as small-scale test beds for a wider and systematic understanding of the FEW nexus. In this short communication, looking at the FEW nexus in Cordova, Alaska, through an energy lens, we introduce an approach (referred to as the "MicroFEWs approach") that may assist remote communities in Alaska in making informed decisions regarding the use of renewable energy to increase FEW security. Our example uses the MicroFEWs approach to assess the impacts of increased renewable energy generation on FEW security in the community, more specifically to food security through potential changes to the community's fish processing industry. This approach can serve as a basis for investigating the FEW nexus in varying contexts and locales.

Climigration? Population and climate change in Arctic Alaska.

Residents of towns and villages in Arctic Alaska live on "the front line of climate change." Some communities face immediate threats from erosion and flooding associated with thawing permafrost, increasing river flows, and reduced sea ice protection of shorelines. The term climigration, referring to migration caused by climate change, originally was coined for these places. Although initial applications emphasized the need for government relocation policies, it has elsewhere been applied more broadly to encompass unplanned migration as well. Some historical movements have been attributed to climate change, but closer study tends to find multiple causes, making it difficult to quantify the climate contribution. Clearer attribution might come from comparisons of migration rates among places that are similar in most respects, apart from known climatic impacts. We apply this approach using annual 1990-2014 time series on 43 Arctic Alaska towns and villages. Within-community time plots show no indication of enhanced out-migration from the most at-risk communities. More formally, there is no significant difference between net migration rates of at-risk and other places, testing several alternative classifications. Although climigration is not detectable to date, growing risks make either planned or unplanned movements unavoidable in the near future.

Effects of changing sea ice on marine mammals and subsistence hunters in northern Alaska from traditional knowledge interviews.

Marine mammals are important sources of food for indigenous residents of northern Alaska. Changing sea ice patterns affect the animals themselves as well as access to them by hunters. Documenting the traditional knowledge of Iñupiaq and Yupik hunters concerning marine mammals and sea ice makes accessible a wide range of information relevant to understanding the ecosystem to which humans belong. We interviewed hunters in 11 coastal villages from the northern Bering Sea to the Beaufort Sea. Hunters reported extensive changes in sea ice and weather that have affected the timing of marine mammal migrations, their distribution and behaviour and the efficacy of certain hunting methods. Amidst these changes, however, hunters cited offsetting technological benefits, such as more powerful and fuel-efficient outboard engines. Other concerns included potential impacts to subsistence hunting from industrial activity such as shipping and oil and gas development. While hunters have been able to adjust to some changes, continued environmental changes and increased disturbance from human activity may further challenge their ability to acquire food in the future. There are indications, however, that innovation and flexibility provide sources of resilience.

An estimated cost of lost climate regulation services caused by thawing of the Arctic cryosphere.

Recent and expected changes in Arctic sea ice cover, snow cover, and methane emissions from permafrost thaw are likely to result in large positive feedbacks to climate warming. There is little recognition of the significant loss in economic value that the disappearance of Arctic sea ice, snow, and permafrost will impose on humans. Here, we examine how sea ice and snow cover, as well as methane emissions due to changes in permafrost, may potentially change in the future, to year 2100, and how these changes may feed back to influence the climate. Between 2010 and 2100, the annual costs from the extra warming due to a decline in albedo related to losses of sea ice and snow, plus each year's methane emissions, cumulate to a present value cost to society ranging from US$7.5 trillion to US$91.3 trillion. The estimated range reflects uncertainty associated with (1) the extent of warming-driven positive climate feedbacks from the thawing cryosphere and (2) the expected economic damages per metric ton of CO2 equivalents that will be imposed by added warming, which depend, especially, on the choice of discount rate. The economic uncertainty is much larger than the uncertainty in possible future feedback effects. Nonetheless, the frozen Arctic provides immense services to all nations by cooling the earth's temperature: the cryosphere is an air conditioner for the planet. As the Arctic thaws, this critical, climate-stabilizing ecosystem service is being lost. This paper provides a first attempt to monetize the cost of some of those lost services.

Towards a tipping point in responding to change: rising costs, fewer options for Arctic and global societies.

Climate change incurs costs, but government adaptation budgets are limited. Beyond a certain point, individuals must bear the costs or adapt to new circumstances, creating political-economic tipping points that we explore in three examples. First, many Alaska Native villages are threatened by erosion, but relocation is expensive. To date, critically threatened villages have not yet been relocated, suggesting that we may already have reached a political-economic tipping point. Second, forest fires shape landscape and ecological characteristics in interior Alaska. Climate-driven changes in fire regime require increased fire-fighting resources to maintain current patterns of vegetation and land use, but these resources appear to be less and less available, indicating an approaching tipping point. Third, rapid sea level rise, for example from accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet, will create a choice between protection and abandonment for coastal regions throughout the world, a potential global tipping point comparable to those now faced by Arctic communities. The examples illustrate the basic idea that if costs of response increase more quickly than available resources, then society has fewer and fewer options as time passes.

Scenarios for global biodiversity in the 21st century.

Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.

Marine mammal harvests and other interactions with humans.

The Arctic is currently undergoing rapid social and environmental changes, and while the peoples of the north have a long history of adapting, the current changes in climate pose unprecedented challenges to the marine mammal-human interactions in the Arctic regions. Arctic marine mammals have been and remain an important resource for many of the indigenous and nonindigenous people of the north. Changes in climate are likely to bring about profound changes to the environment in which these animals live and subsequently to the hunting practices and livelihoods of the people who hunt them. Climate change will lead to reduction in the sea ice extent and thickness and will likely increase shipping through the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage and oil and gas activities in Arctic areas previously inaccessible. Such activities will lead to more frequent interactions between humans and marine mammals. These activities may also change the distribution of marine mammals, affecting the hunters. This paper has three parts. First, an overview of marine mammal harvesting activities in the different circumpolar regions provides a snapshot of current practices and conditions. Second, case studies of selected Arctic regions, indigenous groups, and species provide insight into the manner in which climate change is already impacting marine mammal harvesting activities in the Arctic. Third, we describe how climate change is likely to affect shipping and oil and gas exploration and production activities in the Arctic and describe the possible implications of these changes for the marine mammal populations. We conclude that many of the consequences of climate change are likely to be negative for marine mammal hunters and for marine mammals. Lack of adequate baseline data, however, makes it difficult to identify specific causal mechanisms and thus to develop appropriate conservation measures. Nonetheless, the future of Arctic marine mammals and human uses of them depends on addressing this challenge successfully.

Arctic marine mammals and climate change: impacts and resilience.

Evolutionary selection has refined the life histories of seven species (three cetacean [narwhal, beluga, and bowhead whales], three pinniped [walrus, ringed, and bearded seals], and the polar bear) to spatial and temporal domains influenced by the seasonal extremes and variability of sea ice, temperature, and day length that define the Arctic. Recent changes in Arctic climate may challenge the adaptive capability of these species. Nine other species (five cetacean [fin, humpback, minke, gray, and killer whales] and four pinniped [harp, hooded, ribbon, and spotted seals]) seasonally occupy Arctic and subarctic habitats and may be poised to encroach into more northern latitudes and to remain there longer, thereby competing with extant Arctic species. A synthesis of the impacts of climate change on all these species hinges on sea ice, in its role as: (1) platform, (2) marine ecosystem foundation, and (3) barrier to non-ice-adapted marine mammals and human commercial activities. Therefore, impacts are categorized for: (1) ice-obligate species that rely on sea ice platforms, (2) ice-associated species that are adapted to sea ice-dominated ecosystems, and (3) seasonally migrant species for which sea ice can act as a barrier. An assessment of resilience is far more speculative, as any number of scenarios can be envisioned, most of them involving potential trophic cascades and anticipated human perturbations. Here we provide resilience scenarios for the three ice-related species categories relative to four regions defined by projections of sea ice reductions by 2050 and extant shelf oceanography. These resilience scenarios suggest that: (1) some populations of ice-obligate marine mammals will survive in two regions with sea ice refugia, while other stocks may adapt to ice-free coastal habitats, (2) ice-associated species may find suitable feeding opportunities within the two regions with sea ice refugia and, if capable of shifting among available prey, may benefit from extended foraging periods in formerly ice-covered seas, but (3) they may face increasing competition from seasonally migrant species, which will likely infiltrate Arctic habitats. The means to track and assess Arctic ecosystem change using sentinel marine mammal species are suggested to offer a framework for scientific investigation and responsible resource management.

Conservation of Arctic marine mammals faced with climate change.

On a daily basis, societies are making decisions that will influence the effects of climate change for decades or even centuries to come. To promote informed management of the associated risks, we review available conservation measures for Arctic marine mammals, a group that includes some of the most charismatic species on earth. The majority of available conservation measures (e.g., restrictions on hunting, protection of essential habitat areas from development, reduction of incidental take) are intended to address the effects of increasing human activity in the Arctic that are likely to follow decreasing sea ice and rising temperatures. As important as those measures will be in the effort to conserve Arctic marine mammals and ecosystems, they will not address the primary physical manifestations of climate change, such as loss of sea ice. Short of actions to prevent climate change, there are no known conservation measures that can be used to ensure the long-term persistence of these species and ecosystems as we know them today.

Serial depletion of marine invertebrates leads to the decline of a strongly interacting grazer.

We investigated the relative roles of natural factors and shoreline harvest leading to recent declines of the black leather chiton (Katharina tunicata) on the outer Kenai Peninsula, Alaska (U.S.A.). This intertidal mollusk is a strongly interacting grazer and a culturally important subsistence fishery for Sugpiaq (Chugach Alutiiq) natives. We took multiple approaches to determine causes of decline. Field surveys examined the significant predictors of Katharina density and biomass across 11 sites varying in harvest pressure, and an integrated analysis of archaeological faunal remains, historical records, traditional ecological knowledge, and contemporary subsistence invertebrate landings examined changes in subsistence practices through time. Strong evidence suggests that current spatial variation in Katharina density and biomass is driven by both human exploitation and sea otter (Enhydra lutris) predation. Traditional knowledge, calibrated by subsistence harvest data, further revealed that several benthic marine invertebrates (sea urchin, crab, clams, and cockles) have declined serially beginning in the 1960s, with reduced densities and sizes of Katharina being the most recent. The timing of these declines was coincident with changes in human behavior (from semi-nomadic to increasingly permanent settlement patterns, improved extractive technologies, regional commercial crustacean exploitation, the erosion of culturally based season and size restrictions) and with the reestablishment of sea otters. We propose that a spatial concentration in shoreline collection pressure through time, increased harvest efficiency, and the serial depletion of alternative marine invertebrate prey have led to intensified per capita predator impacts on Katharina and thus its recent localized decline.

Directional changes in ecological communities and social-ecological systems: a framework for prediction based on Alaskan examples.

In this article we extend the theory of community prediction by presenting seven hypotheses for predicting community structure in a directionally changing world. The first three address well-studied community responses to environmental and ecological change: ecological communities are most likely to exhibit threshold changes in structure when perturbations cause large changes in limiting soil or sediment resources, dominant or keystone species, or attributes of disturbance regime that influence community recruitment. Four additional hypotheses address social-ecological interactions and apply to both ecological communities and social-ecological systems. Human responsiveness to short-term and local costs and benefits often leads to human actions with unintended long-term impacts, particularly those that are far from the site of decision making or are geographically dispersed. Policies are usually based on past conditions of ecosystem services rather than expected future trends. Finally, institutions that strengthen negative feedbacks between human actions and social-ecological consequences can reduce human impacts through more responsive (and thus more effective) management of public ecosystem services. Because of the large role that humans play in modifying ecosystems and ecosystem services, it is particularly important to test and improve social-ecological hypotheses as a basis for shaping appropriate policies for long-term ecosystem resilience.

"It's not that simple": A collaborative comparison of sea ice environments, their uses, observed changes, and adaptations in Barrow, Alaska, USA, and Clyde River, Nunavut, Canada.

The Arctic environment, including sea ice, is changing. The impacts of these changes to Inuit and Iñupiat ways of life vary from place to place, yet there are common themes as well. The study reported here involved an exchange of hunters, Elders, and others from Barrow, Alaska, USA, and Clyde River, Nunavut, Canada, as members of a larger research team that also included visiting scientists. Although the physical environments of Barrow and Clyde River are strikingly different, the uses of the marine environment by residents, including sea ice, had many common elements. In both locations, too, extensive changes have been observed in recent years, forcing local residents to respond in a variety of ways. Although generally in agreement or complementary to one another, scientific and indigenous knowledge of sea ice often reflect different perspectives and emphases. Making generalizations about impacts and responses is challenging and should therefore be approached with caution. Technology provides some potential assistance in adapting to changing sea ice, but by itself, it is insufficient and can sometimes have undesirable consequences. Reliable knowledge that can be applied under changing conditions is essential. Collaborative research and firsthand experience are critical to generating such new knowledge.

Policy strategies to address sustainability of Alaskan boreal forests in response to a directionally changing climate.

Human activities are altering many factors that determine the fundamental properties of ecological and social systems. Is sustainability a realistic goal in a world in which many key process controls are directionally changing? To address this issue, we integrate several disparate sources of theory to address sustainability in directionally changing social-ecological systems, apply this framework to climate-warming impacts in Interior Alaska, and describe a suite of policy strategies that emerge from these analyses. Climate warming in Interior Alaska has profoundly affected factors that influence landscape processes (climate regulation and disturbance spread) and natural hazards, but has only indirectly influenced ecosystem goods such as food, water, and wood that receive most management attention. Warming has reduced cultural services provided by ecosystems, leading to some of the few institutional responses that directly address the causes of climate warming, e.g., indigenous initiatives to the Arctic Council. Four broad policy strategies emerge: (i) enhancing human adaptability through learning and innovation in the context of changes occurring at multiple scales; (ii) increasing resilience by strengthening negative (stabilizing) feedbacks that buffer the system from change and increasing options for adaptation through biological, cultural, and economic diversity; (iii) reducing vulnerability by strengthening institutions that link the high-latitude impacts of climate warming to their low-latitude causes; and (iv) facilitating transformation to new, potentially more beneficial states by taking advantage of opportunities created by crisis. Each strategy provides societal benefits, and we suggest that all of them be pursued simultaneously.

Observations on the workshop as a means of improving communication between holders of traditional and scientific knowledge.

Traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) and the information and insights it offers to natural resource research and management have been given much attention in recent years. On the practical question of how TEK is accessed and used together with scientific knowledge, most work to date has examined documentation and methods of recording and disseminating information. Relatively little has been done regarding exchanges between scientific and traditional knowledge. This paper examines three workshop settings in which such exchanges were intended outcomes. The Barrow Symposium on Sea Ice, the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Restoration Program Synthesis/Information Workshops, and the Alaska Beluga Whale Committee illuminate certain features of the preparation, format, and context of workshops or series of workshops and their eventual outcomes and influence. The examples show the importance of long-term relationships among participants and thorough preparation before the actual workshop. Further research should look more systematically at the factors that influence the success of a given workshop and the various ways in which participants perceive success.