UK Multicenter Prospective Evaluation of the Leibovich Score in Localized Renal Cell Carcinoma: Performance has Altered Over Time.

OBJECTIVE: To examine changes in outcome by the Leibovich score using contemporary and historic cohorts of patients presenting with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) PATIENTS AND METHODS: Prospective observational multicenter cohort study, recruiting patients with suspected newly diagnosed RCC. A historical cohort of patients was examined for comparison. Metastasis-free survival (MFS) formed the primary outcome measure. Model discrimination and calibration were evaluated using Cox proportional hazard regression and the Kaplan-Meier method. Overall performance of the Leibovich model was assessed by estimating explained variation. RESULTS: Seven hundred and six patients were recruited between 2011 and 2014 and RCC confirmed in 608 (86%) patients. Application of the Leibovich score to patients with localized clear cell RCC in this contemporary cohort demonstrated good model discrimination (c-index = 0.77) but suboptimal calibration, with improved MFS for intermediate- and high-risk patients (5-year MFS 85% and 50%, respectively) compared to the original Leibovich cohort (74% and 31%) and a historic (1998-2006) UK cohort (76% and 37%). The proportion of variation in outcome explained by the model is low and has declined over time (28% historic vs 22% contemporary UK cohort). CONCLUSION: Prognostic models are widely employed in patients with localized RCC to guide surveillance intensity and clinical trial selection. However, the majority of the variation in outcome remains unexplained by the Leibovich model and, over time, MFS rates among intermediate- and high-risk classified patients have altered. These findings are likely to have implications for all such models used in this setting.

European multicentre study validates enhanced liver fibrosis test as biomarker of fibrosis in systemic sclerosis.

Objectives: To validate enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test and its components-amino-terminal propeptide of procollagen type III (PIIINP), tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinase-1 (TIMP-1) and HA-as biomarkers of fibrosis in SSc in an independent, international, multicentre cohort. Methods: Two hundred and fifty-four SSc patients from six Rheumatology Centres were included. Sera were collected and stored according to EUSTAR biobanking recommendations and analysed through automated high throughput diagnostics. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS software. Results: Two hundred and forty-seven SSc patients (mean age 55.7 ± 13.9 years, 202 F) were analysed. ELF score, TIMP-1 and PIIINP levels were higher in males (P = 0.0197, P = 0.0107, P = 0.0108 respectively) and in dcSSc (P = 0.001, P = 0.0008, P < 0.0001 respectively). ELF score and the single markers significantly correlated with modified Rodnan skin score (r = 0.37, P < 0.0001), disease activity and severity (P < 0.0001 for all markers, except for HA P = 0.0001) and inversely with forced vital capacity, (FVC) % (TIMP-1, r = -0.21, P = 0.0012; PIIINP, r = -0.26, P = 0.0001), TLC% (ELF score, r = -0.20, P = 0.0036; TIMP-1, r = -0.32, P < 0.0001; PIIINP, r = -0.28, P < 0.0001), diffusion capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO) % (P < 0.0001 for all markers, except for HA P = 0.0115). Multivariate analysis indicated that age (P < 0.001), modified Rodnan skin score (P < 0.001) and DLCO% (P = 0.005) were independently associated with ELF score. Conclusion: Between the first and this validation studies, the value of the ELF score as independent marker of skin and lung involvement in SSc is confirmed in 457 patients. A longitudinal study is on-going to identify an SSc specific algorithm with predictive value for skin and lung progression.

The future for diagnostic tests of acute kidney injury in critical care: evidence synthesis, care pathway analysis and research prioritisation.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is highly prevalent in hospital inpatient populations, leading to significant mortality and morbidity, reduced quality of life and high short- and long-term health-care costs for the NHS. New diagnostic tests may offer an earlier diagnosis or improved care, but evidence of benefit to patients and of value to the NHS is required before national adoption. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the potential for AKI in vitro diagnostic tests to enhance the NHS care of patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and identify an efficient supporting research strategy. DATA SOURCES: We searched ClinicalTrials.gov, The Cochrane Library databases, Embase, Health Management Information Consortium, International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, MEDLINE, metaRegister of Current Controlled Trials, PubMed and Web of Science databases from their inception dates until September 2014 (review 1), November 2015 (review 2) and July 2015 (economic model). Details of databases used for each review and coverage dates are listed in the main report. REVIEW METHODS: The AKI-Diagnostics project included horizon scanning, systematic reviewing, meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity, appraisal of analytical validity, care pathway analysis, model-based lifetime economic evaluation from a UK NHS perspective and value of information (VOI) analysis. RESULTS: The horizon-scanning search identified 152 potential tests and biomarkers. Three tests, Nephrocheck® (Astute Medical, Inc., San Diego, CA, USA), NGAL and cystatin C, were subjected to detailed review. The meta-analysis was limited by variable reporting standards, study quality and heterogeneity, but sensitivity was between 0.54 and 0.92 and specificity was between 0.49 and 0.95 depending on the test. A bespoke critical appraisal framework demonstrated that analytical validity was also poorly reported in many instances. In the economic model the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from £11,476 to £19,324 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), with a probability of cost-effectiveness between 48% and 54% when tests were compared with current standard care. LIMITATIONS: The major limitation in the evidence on tests was the heterogeneity between studies in the definitions of AKI and the timing of testing. CONCLUSIONS: Diagnostic tests for AKI in the ICU offer the potential to improve patient care and add value to the NHS, but cost-effectiveness remains highly uncertain. Further research should focus on the mechanisms by which a new test might change current care processes in the ICU and the subsequent cost and QALY implications. The VOI analysis suggested that further observational research to better define the prevalence of AKI developing in the ICU would be worthwhile. A formal randomised controlled trial of biomarker use linked to a standardised AKI care pathway is necessary to provide definitive evidence on whether or not adoption of tests by the NHS would be of value. STUDY REGISTRATION: The systematic review within this study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014013919. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

An analysis of the impact of pre-analytical factors on the urine proteome: Sample processing time, temperature, and proteolysis.

PURPOSE: We have examined the impact of sample processing time delay, temperature, and the addition of protease inhibitors (PIs) on the urinary proteome and peptidome, an important aspect of biomarker studies. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Ten urine samples from patients with varying pathologies were each divided and PIs added to one-half, with aliquots of each then processed and frozen immediately, or after a delay of 6 h at 4°C or room temperature (20-22°C), effectively yielding 60 samples in total. Samples were then analyzed by 2D-PAGE, SELDI-TOF-MS, and immunoassay. RESULTS: Interindividual variability in profiles was the dominant feature in all analyses. Minimal changes were observed by 2D-PAGE as a result of delay in processing, temperature, or PIs and no changes were seen in IgG, albumin, ß2 -microglobulin, or α1 -microglobulin measured by immunoassay. Analysis of peptides showed clustering of some samples by presence/absence of PIs but the extent was very patient-dependent with most samples showing minimal effects. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The extent of processing-induced changes and the benefit of PI addition are patient- and sample-dependent. A consistent processing methodology is essential within a study to avoid any confounding of the results.

Predicting response to bevacizumab in ovarian cancer: a panel of potential biomarkers informing treatment selection.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to identify and validate novel predictive and/or prognostic serum proteomic biomarkers in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) treated as part of the phase III international ICON7 clinical trial. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: ICON7 was a phase III international trial in EOC which showed a modest but statistically significant benefit in progression-free survival (PFS) with the addition of bevacizumab to standard chemotherapy. Serum samples from 10 patients who received bevacizumab (five responders and five nonresponders) were analyzed by mass spectrometry to identify candidate biomarkers. Initial validation and exploration by immunoassay was undertaken in an independent cohort of 92 patients, followed by a second independent cohort of 115 patients (taken from across both arms of the trial). RESULTS: Three candidate biomarkers were identified: mesothelin, fms-like tyrosine kinase-4 (FLT4), and α1-acid glycoprotein (AGP). Each showed evidence of independent prognostic potential when adjusting for high-risk status in initial (P < 0.02) and combined (P < 0.01) validation cohorts. In cohort I, individual biomarkers were not predictive of bevacizumab benefit; however, when combined with CA-125, a signature was developed that was predictive of bevacizumab response and discriminated benefit attributable to bevacizumab better than clinical characteristics. The signature showed weaker evidence of predictive ability in validation cohort II, but was still strongly predictive considering all samples (P = 0.001), with an improvement in median PFS of 5.5 months in signature-positive patients in the experimental arm compared with standard arm. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a discriminatory signature comprising mesothelin, FLT4, AGP, and CA-125 as potentially identifying those patients with EOC more likely to benefit from bevacizumab. These results require validation in further patient cohorts.