Strategies for integrating scientific evidence in water policy and law in the face of uncertainty.

Understanding how human actions and environmental change affect water resources is crucial for addressing complex water management issues. The scientific tools that can produce the necessary information are ecological indicators, referring to measurable properties of the ecosystem state; environmental monitoring, the data collection process that is required to evaluate the progress towards reaching water management goals; mathematical models, linking human disturbances with the ecosystem state to predict environmental impacts; and scenarios, assisting in long-term management and policy implementation. Paradoxically, despite the rapid generation of data, evolving scientific understanding, and recent advancements in systems modeling, there is a striking imbalance between knowledge production and knowledge utilization in decision-making. In this paper, we examine the role and potential capacity of scientific tools in guiding governmental decision-making processes and identify the most critical disparities between water management, policy, law, and science. We demonstrate how the complex, uncertain, and gradually evolving nature of scientific knowledge might not always fit aptly to the legislative and policy processes and structures. We contend that the solution towards increased understanding of socio-ecological systems and reduced uncertainty lies in strengthening the connections between water management theory and practice, among the scientific tools themselves, among different stakeholders, and among the social, economic, and ecological facets of water quality management, law, and policy. We conclude by tying in three knowledge-exchange strategies, namely - adaptive management, Driver-Pressure-Status-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework, and participatory modeling - that offer complementary perspectives to bridge the gap between science and policy.

Exploring tradeoffs among diet quality and environmental impacts in self-selected diets: a population-based study.

PURPOSE: Proposed sustainable diets often deviate dramatically from currently consumed diets, excluding or drastically reducing entire food groups. Moreover, their environmental sustainability tends to be measured only in terms of greenhouse gases emissions. The aim of this study was to overcome these limitations and identify a cluster of already adopted, relatively healthy diets with substantially lower environmental impacts than the average diet. We also aimed to estimate the reduction in multiple environmental impacts that could be achieved by shifting to this diet cluster and highlight possible tradeoffs among environmental impacts. METHODS: The diet clusters were identified by applying energy-adjusted multiple factor analysis and hierarchical clustering to the dietary data of the National FinHealth 2017 Study (n = 5125) harmonized with life cycle assessment data on food products from Agribalyse 3.0 and Agri-Footprint using nutrient intakes and global warming potential, land use, and eutrophication of marine and freshwater systems as the active variables. RESULTS: We identified five diet clusters, none of which had the highest overall diet quality and lowest impact for all four environmental indicators. One cluster, including twenty percent of the individuals in the sample was identified as a "best compromise" diet with the highest diet quality and the second lowest environmental impacts of all clusters, except for freshwater eutrophication. The cluster did not exclude any food groups, but included more fruits, vegetables, and fish and less of all other animal-source foods than average. Shifting to this cluster diet could raise diet quality while achieving significant reductions in most but not all environmental impacts. CONCLUSION: There are tradeoffs among the environmental impacts of diets. Thus, future dietary analyses should consider multiple sustainability indicators simultaneously. Cluster analysis is a useful tool to help design tailored, socio-culturally acceptable dietary transition paths towards high diet quality and lower environmental impact.

High organic carbon content constricts the potential for stable organic carbon accrual in mineral agricultural soils in Finland.

Sequestering carbon into agricultural soils is considered as a means of mitigating climate change. We used agronomic soil test results representing c. 95% of the farmed land area in Finland to estimate the potential of the uppermost 15 cm soil layer of mineral agricultural soils to sequester organic carbon (OC) and to contribute to the mitigation of climate change. The estimation of the maximum capacity of mineral matter to protect OC in stable mineral-associated form was based on the theory that clay and fine-sized (fines = clay + silt) particles have a limited capacity to protect OC. In addition, we used the clay/OC and fines/OC ratios to identify areas with a risk of erosion and reduced productivity, thus indicating priority areas potentially benefitting from the increased soil OC contents. We found that 32-40% of the mineral agricultural soils in Finland have the potential to further accumulate mineral-associated OC (MOC), while in the majority of soils, the current OC stock in the uppermost 15 cm exceeded the capacity of mineral matter to protect OC. The nationwide soil OC sequestration potential of the uppermost 15 cm in mineral agricultural soils ranged between 0.21 and 0.26 Tg, which corresponds to less than 2% of annual greenhouse gas emissions in Finland. The fields with the highest potential for SOC accrual were found in the southern and southwestern parts of the country, including some of the most intensively cultivated high-clay soils. Although the nationwide potential for additional OC sequestration was estimated to be relatively small, the current OC storage in Finnish arable mineral soils (0-15 cm) is large, 128 Tg. Farming practices enabling maximum OC input into the soil play an important role as a tool for mitigating the loss of carbon from high-OC soils in the changing climate. Furthermore, especially in high-clay areas with potential for MOC accrual, efforts to increase soil OC could help improve soil structural stability and therefore reduce erosion and the loss of nutrients to the aquatic environments.

Good eutrophication status is a challenging goal for coastal waters.

Our objective is to understand the effectiveness of local and international nutrient pollution mitigation efforts when targeting better water quality in the region's coastal waters. To this end, we developed an integrated modeling framework for the Archipelago Sea located in the Baltic Sea in Northern Europe, conducted what-if analyses for various ambition levels of nutrient abatement, and studied the long-term consequences at the sea basin scale. We demonstrate that in outer parts of the Archipelago Sea, a good eutrophication status can be achieved if the current internationally agreed policy goals for nutrient abatement are successfully met. In inner coastal areas, current goals for phytoplankton biomass could be reached only through extreme mitigation efforts in all polluting sectors and large-scale application of yet poorly tested ecological engineering methods. This result calls for carefully considering the relevance of current threshold values for phytoplankton and its role as a dominant indicator of good ecological status.

Regionally extended shared socioeconomic pathways for the offshore wind industry in Finland.

Offshore wind energy is increasingly becoming an important part of European and global low-emission power systems. The aims of this paper are to create a shared understanding on the major drivers of offshore wind development in Finland and to explore how these drivers, and opportunities for the entire industry, may develop over the twenty-first century, under different global futures. This research develops extended shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) narratives for the offshore wind industry by using a virtual participatory workshop with expert stakeholders. According to our results, the five key drivers shaping the prospects of offshore wind development are public acceptability of offshore energy, global and national demand for low-emission energy, technological development and relative competitiveness of offshore energy, availability of space and wind resources, and energy markets and transmission infrastructure. Nationally extended SSP narratives, building on these key drivers, describe a wide range of alternative future risks and opportunities for developing offshore energy. Under sustainable development (SSP1), offshore wind is likely to soon become a major source of energy in the area, if developed in a balanced manner alongside other uses of the marine space. Under fossil-fuelled development (SSP5), offshore wind grows slower and may experience rapid uptake only in the latter half of the century. Under the regional rivalry scenario (SSP3), the need for local energy sources drives the national energy policies and may create new opportunities for offshore wind. Under the inequality scenario (SSP4), local municipalities and the residents decide on locations of new wind turbines and the overall magnitude of future offshore wind. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40974-022-00252-7.

Agricultural nutrient loading under alternative climate, societal and manure recycling scenarios.

This paper introduces a framework for extending global climate and socioeconomic scenarios in order to study agricultural nutrient pollution on an individual catchment scale. Our framework builds on and extends Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) at the spatial and temporal scales that are relevant for the drivers of animal husbandry, manure recycling and the application of inorganic fertilisers in crop production. Our case study area is the Aura river catchment in South-West Finland, which discharges into the heavily eutrophic Baltic Sea. The Aura river catchment has intensive agriculture - both livestock and crop production. Locally adjusted and interpreted climate and socioeconomic scenarios were used as inputs to a field-level economic optimisation in order to study how farmers might react to the changing markets and climate conditions under different SSPs. The results on economically optimal fertilisation levels were then used as inputs to the spatially and temporally explicit nutrient loading model (VEMALA). Alternative manure recycling strategies that matched with SSP narratives were studied as means to reduce the phosphorus (P) overfertilisation in areas with high livestock density. According to our simulations, on average the P loads increased by 18% during 2071-2100 from the current level and the variation in P loads between scenarios was large (from -14% to +50%). By contrast, the nitrogen (N) loads had decreased on average by -9% (with variation from -20% to +3%) by the end of the current century. Phosphorus loading was most sensitive to manure recycling strategies and the speed of climate change. Nitrogen loading was less sensitive to changes in climate and socioeconomic drivers.

Impacts of changing society and climate on nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea.

This paper studies the relative importance of societal drivers and changing climate on anthropogenic nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways are extended at temporal and spatial scales relevant for the most contributing sectors. Extended socioeconomic and climate scenarios are then used as inputs for spatially and temporally detailed models for population and land use change, and their subsequent impact on nutrient loading is computed. According to the model simulations, several factors of varying influence may either increase or decrease total nutrient loads. In general, societal drivers outweigh the impacts of changing climate. Food demand is the most impactful driver, strongly affecting land use and nutrient loads from agricultural lands in the long run. In order to reach the good environmental status of the Baltic Sea, additional nutrient abatement efforts should focus on phosphorus rather than nitrogen. Agriculture is the most important sector to be addressed under the conditions of gradually increasing precipitation in the region and increasing global demand for food.

Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea.

The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dynamic modelling of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea under projections of climate change and scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways. Average nutrient loads are projected to increase by 8% and 14% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, in response to climate change scenarios. In contrast, changes in the socioeconomic drivers can lead to a decrease of 13% and 6% or an increase of 11% and 9% in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, depending on the pathway. This indicates that policy decisions still play a major role in climate adaptation and in managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region.

Food web and fisheries in the future Baltic Sea.

We developed numerical simulations of potential future ecological states of the Baltic Sea ecosystem at the end of century under five scenarios. We used a spatial food web (Ecospace) model, forced by a physical-biogeochemical model. The scenarios are built on consistent storylines that describe plausible developments of climatic and socioeconomic factors in the Baltic Sea region. Modelled species diversity and fish catches are driven by climate- and nutrient load-related changes in habitat quality and by fisheries management strategies. Our results suggest that a scenario including low greenhouse gas concentrations and nutrient pollution and ecologically focused fisheries management results in high biodiversity and catch value. On the other hand, scenarios envisioning increasing societal inequality or economic growth based on fossil fuels, high greenhouse gas emissions and high nutrient loads result in decreased habitat quality and diminished biodiversity. Under the latter scenarios catches are high but they predominantly consist of lower-valued fish.

The Baltic Sea as a time machine for the future coastal ocean.

Coastal global oceans are expected to undergo drastic changes driven by climate change and increasing anthropogenic pressures in coming decades. Predicting specific future conditions and assessing the best management strategies to maintain ecosystem integrity and sustainable resource use are difficult, because of multiple interacting pressures, uncertain projections, and a lack of test cases for management. We argue that the Baltic Sea can serve as a time machine to study consequences and mitigation of future coastal perturbations, due to its unique combination of an early history of multistressor disturbance and ecosystem deterioration and early implementation of cross-border environmental management to address these problems. The Baltic Sea also stands out in providing a strong scientific foundation and accessibility to long-term data series that provide a unique opportunity to assess the efficacy of management actions to address the breakdown of ecosystem functions. Trend reversals such as the return of top predators, recovering fish stocks, and reduced input of nutrient and harmful substances could be achieved only by implementing an international, cooperative governance structure transcending its complex multistate policy setting, with integrated management of watershed and sea. The Baltic Sea also demonstrates how rapidly progressing global pressures, particularly warming of Baltic waters and the surrounding catchment area, can offset the efficacy of current management approaches. This situation calls for management that is (i) conservative to provide a buffer against regionally unmanageable global perturbations, (ii) adaptive to react to new management challenges, and, ultimately, (iii) multisectorial and integrative to address conflicts associated with economic trade-offs.

Cost-Effective Marine Protection--A Pragmatic Approach.

This paper puts forward a framework for probabilistic and holistic cost-effectiveness analysis to provide support in selecting the least-cost set of measures to reach a multidimensional environmental objective. Following the principles of ecosystem-based management, the framework includes a flexible methodology for deriving and populating criteria for effectiveness and costs and analyzing complex ecological-economic trade-offs under uncertainty. The framework is applied in the development of the Finnish Programme of Measures (PoM) for reaching the targets of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). The numerical results demonstrate that substantial cost savings can be realized from careful consideration of the costs and multiple effects of management measures. If adopted, the proposed PoM would yield improvements in the state of the Baltic Sea, but the overall objective of the MSFD would not be reached by the target year of 2020; for various environmental and administrative reasons, it would take longer for most measures to take full effect.

Water protection in the Baltic Sea and the Chesapeake Bay: institutions, policies and efficiency.

The Baltic Sea and the Chesapeake Bay share many characteristics. Both are shallow, brackish marine areas that suffer from eutrophication. Successful policies targeting point source pollution have lowered nutrient loads in both areas, but achieving the desired marine quality will require further abatement: efforts may be extended to more complicated and expensive pollution sources, notably agricultural nonpoint loads. Despite their ecological similarities, the two watersheds have different histories and institutional settings and have thus adopted different policies. Comparing and contrasting the policies reveal ways to improve the efficiency of each and ways to avoid the path of trial and error. No comparison of the parallel protection efforts, which involve expenditures of hundreds of millions of dollars annually, has been carried out to date. The present paper analyzes the policies applied in the two regions, distilling the results into six recommendations for future steps in preserving what are valuable sea areas.

Prospects for cost-efficient water protection in the Baltic Sea.

This study investigates the economic consequences of the nutrient load reductions agreed in the 2013 revision of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The cost of meeting the targets set for waterborne sources was estimated to be 1980 MEUR annually. The 2013 revision is a step towards cost-efficient water protection: the cost of meeting the earlier targets would have been 328 MEUR (14%) higher, although the revised targets are now more ambitious with respect to phosphorus. We demonstrate that there is potential for efficiency gains by introducing flexibility mechanisms, such as 'joint implementation' to trans-boundary water protection. The potential gains can be as high as 280 MEUR (14%). The most flexible interpretation of the basin targets, one allowing Contracting Parties to account for reductions in other sea basins in proportion to their effect in the focal basin, could further reduce the total cost by 200 MEUR (12%).

Model for quantifying the synergies between farmland biodiversity conservation and water protection at catchment scale.

This paper studies joint provision of two environmental non-market commodities related to agriculture: biodiversity conservation and water protection. We provide an optimising tool for analysing spatial dependencies of multifunctional agriculture at catchment scale. We show that efficiency gains can be achieved by spatial allocation and choice of the type of vegetation. In particular, inclusion of meadow nectar plants in the founding grass seed mixture of set-asides was found out to be an economically efficient measure to promote biodiversity and water protection on warm, steep slopes.

Production costs of biodiversity zones on field and forest margins: a case study in Finland.

This paper estimates and compares the costs incurred to a private landowner from establishing and managing 25-m wide biodiversity zones on field and forest margins in southern Finland. Crop and timber prices being at their long-term averages, current agricultural support paid and the real discount rate 3%, the average annual net costs per hectare of field and forest biodiversity zones were €30 ha(-1) and €108 ha(-1), respectively, the field zones being the less costly alternative in 95% of cases. This result is mainly due to the poor productivity of field cultivation relative to timber production under boreal climate conditions. In addition to soil quality, the initial stand structure affects the costs of both biodiversity zone types. It is less costly for a landowner to establish biodiversity zones in forests where no final felling is imminent but which already contain some tree volume. In field biodiversity zones, costs are slightly lower on fields where forest shading is great. Uneven-aged management practiced in forest biodiversity zones was found to lead to a 3-32% reduction in the net present value of forest land compared to conventional forest management. An increase in the real discount rate increases the relative efficiency of forest biodiversity zones.