Prevalence of all epilepsies in urban informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya: a two-stage population-based study.

BACKGROUND: WHO estimates that more than 50 million people worldwide have epilepsy and 80% of cases are in low-income and middle-income countries. Most studies in Africa have focused on active convulsive epilepsy in rural areas, but there are few data in urban settings. We aimed to estimate the prevalence and spatial distribution of all epilepsies in two urban informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya. METHODS: We did a two-stage population-based cross-sectional study of residents in a demographic surveillance system covering two informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya (Korogocho and Viwandani). Stage 1 screened all household members using a validated epilepsy screening questionnaire to detect possible cases. In stage 2, those identified with possible seizures and a proportion of those screening negative were invited to local clinics for clinical and neurological assessments by a neurologist. Seizures were classified following the International League Against Epilepsy recommendations. We adjusted for attrition between the two stages using multiple imputations and for sensitivity by dividing estimates by the sensitivity value of the screening tool. Complementary log-log regression was used to assess prevalence differences by participant socio-demographics. FINDINGS: A total of 56 425 individuals were screened during stage 1 (between Sept 17 and Dec 23, 2021) during which 1126 were classified as potential epilepsy cases. A total of 873 were assessed by a neurologist in stage 2 (between April 12 and Aug 6, 2022) during which 528 were confirmed as epilepsy cases. 253 potential cases were not assessed by a neurologist due to attrition. 30 179 (53·5%) of the 56 425 individuals were male and 26 246 (46·5%) were female. The median age was 24 years (IQR 11-35). Attrition-adjusted and sensitivity-adjusted prevalence for all types of epilepsy was 11·9 cases per 1000 people (95% CI 11·0-12·8), convulsive epilepsy was 8·7 cases per 1000 people (8·0-9·6), and non-convulsive epilepsy was 3·2 cases per 1000 people (2·7-3·7). Overall prevalence was highest among separated or divorced individuals at 20·3 cases per 1000 people (95% CI 15·9-24·7), unemployed people at 18·8 cases per 1000 people (16·2-21·4), those with no formal education at 18·5 cases per 1000 people (16·3-20·7), and adolescents aged 13-18 years at 15·2 cases per 1000 people (12·0-18·5). The epilepsy diagnostic gap was 80%. INTERPRETATION: Epilepsy is common in urban informal settlements of Nairobi, with large diagnostic gaps. Targeted interventions are needed to increase early epilepsy detection, particularly among vulnerable groups, to enable prompt treatment and prevention of adverse social consequences. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research using Official Development Assistance.

Assessment of Neonatal Mortality and Associated Hospital-Related Factors in Healthcare Facilities Within Sunyani and Sunyani West Municipal Assemblies in Bono Region, Ghana.

Objectives: Ghana's quest to reduce neonatal mortality, in hospital facilities and communities, continues to be a nightmare. The pursuit of achieving healthy lives and well-being for neonates as enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal three lingered in challenging hospital facilities and communities. Notwithstanding that, there have been increasing efforts in that direction. This study examines the contributing factors that hinder the fight against neonatal mortality in all hospital facilities in the Sunyani and Sunyani West Municipal Assemblies in Bono Region, Ghana. Methods: The study utilized neonatal mortality data consisting of neonatal deaths, structural facility related variables, medical human resources, types of hospital facilities and natal care. The data was collected longitudinally from 2014 to 2019. These variables were analysed using the negative binomial hurdle regression (NBH) model to determine factors that contribute to this menace at the facility level. Cause-specific deaths were obtained to determine the leading causes of neonatal deaths within health facilities in the two municipal assemblies. Results: The study established that the leading causes of neonatal mortality in these districts are birth asphyxia (46%), premature birth (33%), neonatal sepsis (11%) and neonatal jaundice (7%). The NBH showed that neonatal mortality in hospital facilities depend on the number of incubators, monitoring equipment, hand washing facilities, CPAPb machines, radiant warmers, physiotherapy machines, midwives, paediatric doctors and paediatric nurses in the hospital facility. Conclusions: Early management of neonatal sepsis, birth asphyxia, premature birth and neonatal infections is required to reduce neonatal deaths. The government and all stakeholders in the health sector should provide all hospital facilities with the essential equipment and the medical human resources necessary to eradicate the menace. This will make the realization of Sustainable Development Goal three, which calls for healthy lives and well-being for all, a reality.

Utilizing a multi-stage transition model for analysing child stunting in two urban slum settlements of Nairobi: A longitudinal analysis, 2011-2014.

INTRODUCTION: Stunting is common among children in many low and middle income countries, particularly in rural and urban slum settings. Few studies have described child stunting transitions and the associated factors in urban slum settlements. We describe transitions between stunting states and associated factors among children living in Nairobi slum settlements. METHODS: This study used data collected between 2010 and 2014 from the Nairobi Urban and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS) and a vaccination study nested within the surveillance system. A subset of 692 children aged 0 to 3 years, with complete anthropometric data, and household socio-demographic data was used for the analysis. Height-for-age Z-scores (HAZ) was used to define stunting: normal (HAZ ≥ 1), marginally stunted (-2 ≤ HAZ < -1), moderately stunted (-3 ≤ HAZ < -2), and severely stunted (HAZ < -3). Transitions from one stunting level to another and in the reverse direction were computed. The associations between explanatory factors and the transitions between four child stunting states were modeled using a continuous-time multi-state model. RESULTS: We observed that 48%, 39%, 41%, and 52% of children remained in the normal, marginally stunted, moderately stunted, and severely stunted states, respectively. About 29% transitioned from normal to marginally stunted state, 15% to the moderately stunted state, and 8% to the severely stunted state. Also, 8%, 12%, and 29% back transitioned from severely stunted, moderately stunted, and marginally stunted states, to the normal state, respectively. The shared common factors associated with all transitions to a more severe state include: male gender, ethnicity (only for mild and severe transition states), child's age, and household food insecurity. In Korogocho, children whose parents were married and those whose mothers had attained primary or post-primary education were associated with a transition from a mild state into a moderately stunted state. Children who were breastfed exclusively were less likely to transition from moderate to severe stunting state. CONCLUSION: These findings reveal a high burden of stunting and transitions in urban slums. Context-specific interventions targeting the groups of children identified by the socio-demographic factors are needed. Improving food security and exclusive breastfeeding could potentially reduce stunting in the slums.

SARS-CoV-2 incidence monitoring and statistical estimation of the basic and time-varying reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic in 45 sub-Saharan African countries.

The world battled to defeat a novel coronavirus 2019 (SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19), a respiratory illness that is transmitted from person to person through contacts with droplets from infected persons. Despite efforts to disseminate preventable messages and adoption of mitigation strategies by governments and the World Health Organization (WHO), transmission spread globally. An accurate assessment of the transmissibility of the coronavirus remained a public health priority for many countries across the world to fight this pandemic, especially at the early onset. In this paper, we estimated the transmission potential of COVID-19 across 45 countries in sub-Saharan Africa using three approaches, namely, [Formula: see text] based on (i) an exponential growth model (ii) maximum likelihood (ML) estimation and (iii) a time-varying basic reproduction number at the early onset of the pandemic. Using data from March 14, 2020, to May 10, 2020, sub-Saharan African countries were still grappling with COVID-19 at that point in the pandemic. The region's basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) was 1.89 (95% CI: 1.767 to 2.026) using the growth model and 1.513 (95% CI: 1.491 to 1.535) with the maximum likelihood method, indicating that, on average, infected individuals transmitted the virus to less than two secondary persons. Several countries, including Sudan ([Formula: see text]: 2.03), Ghana ([Formula: see text]: 1.87), and Somalia ([Formula: see text]: 1.85), exhibited high transmission rates. These findings highlighted the need for continued vigilance and the implementation of effective control measures to combat the pandemic in the region. It is anticipated that the findings in this study would not only function as a historical record of reproduction numbers during the COVID-19 pandemic in African countries, but can serve as a blueprint for addressing future pandemics of a similar nature.

Challenges associated with the availability, accessibility, and use of antivenoms for treating snakebite envenoming in Ghana: A MaxDiff experiment design.

Successful snakebite envenoming (SBE) treatment requires safe, effective, and quality-assured antivenom products specifically tailored to combat endemic venomous snake species. This study aims to identify the challenges associated with the availability, accessibility, and use of antivenoms for treating SBE. The data for this study were obtained from a cross-sectional study involving healthcare workers from two districts (namely Afram Plains North and Afram Plains South) in the Eastern Region of Ghana. Through the MaxDiff design methodology, we quantify the challenges associated with the availability, accessibility, and use of antivenoms. Responses from a simple random sample of 203 healthcare workers were included in this study. Participants identified the high cost of antivenoms as the most challenging factor that limits the availability, accessibility, and use of antivenoms for treating SBE. Other important challenges were the lack of access to effective antivenoms in remote areas when needed and the increased use of unorthodox and harmful practices, followed by resort to unorthodox and harmful practices and the lack of effective antivenoms to address envenoming from local species in some instances. However, poor outcomes from using substandard antivenoms, stock-outs, inadequate number of manufacturers, and the resort to substandard, cheap, and harmful antivenoms were traded off. Also, poor utilization of antivenoms, suboptimal utilization of antivenoms (low quality, under-dose), use of ineffective, substandard antivenoms, and flooding of the market with products that have not been evaluated thoroughly were underscored. Our findings provide essential data to guide discussions on barriers to the availability, accessibility, and use of antivenoms for treating SBE to improve the supply of antivenoms, enhance the effectiveness of snakebite treatment, and improve patient care quality in Ghana. Multi-component strategies are needed to address the challenges identified, such as intensified advocacy, ongoing education and community engagement, healthcare worker training, and leveraging institutional and governance structures.

Multimorbidity in African ancestry populations: a scoping review.

OBJECTIVES: Multimorbidity (MM) is a growing concern linked to poor outcomes and higher healthcare costs. While most MM research targets European ancestry populations, the prevalence and patterns in African ancestry groups remain underexplored. This study aimed to identify and summarise the available literature on MM in populations with African ancestry, on the continent, and in the diaspora. DESIGN: A scoping review was conducted in five databases (PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, Science Direct and JSTOR) in July 2022. Studies were selected based on predefined criteria, with data extraction focusing on methodology and findings. Descriptive statistics summarised the data, and a narrative synthesis highlighted key themes. RESULTS: Of the 232 publications on MM in African-ancestry groups from 2010 to June 2022-113 examined continental African populations, 100 the diaspora and 19 both. Findings revealed diverse MM patterns within and beyond continental Africa. Cardiovascular and metabolic diseases are predominant in both groups (80% continental and 70% diaspora). Infectious diseases featured more in continental studies (58% continental and 16% diaspora). Although many papers did not specifically address these features, as in previous studies, older age, being women and having a lower socioeconomic status were associated with a higher prevalence of MM, with important exceptions. Research gaps identified included limited data on African-ancestry individuals, inadequate representation, under-represented disease groups, non-standardised methodologies, the need for innovative data strategies, and insufficient translational research. CONCLUSION: The growing global MM prevalence is mirrored in African-ancestry populations. Recognising the unique contexts of African-ancestry populations is essential when addressing the burden of MM. This review emphasises the need for additional research to guide and enhance healthcare approaches for African-ancestry populations, regardless of their geographic location.

Impact of Urban Slum Residence on Coverage of Maternal, Neonatal, and Child Health Service Indicators in the Greater Accra Region of Ghana: an Ecological Time-Series Analysis, 2018-2021.

Among other focus areas, the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 3 and 11 seek to advance progress toward universal coverage of maternal, neonatal, and child health (MNCH) services and access to safe and affordable housing and basic services by 2030. Governments and development agencies have historically neglected the health and well-being associated with living in urban slums across major capital cities in sub-Saharan Africa since health policies and programs have tended to focus on people living in rural communities. This study assessed the trends and compared inequities in MNCH service utilization between slum and non-slum districts in the Greater Accra region of Ghana. It analyzed information from 29 districts using monthly time-series Health Management Information System (HMIS) data on MNCH service utilization between January 2018 and December 2021. Multivariable quantile regression models with robust standard errors were used to quantify the impact of urban slum residence on MNCH service utilization. We assessed the inequality of MNCH coverage indicators between slum and non-slum districts using the Gini index with bootstrapped standard errors and the generalized Lorenz curve. The results indicate that rates of vaccination coverage and antenatal care (ANC) attendance have declined significantly in slum districts compared to those in non-slum districts. However, skilled birth delivery and postnatal care (PNC) were found to be higher in urban slum areas compared to those in non-urban slum areas. To help achieve the SDGs' targets, it is important for the government of Ghana and other relevant stakeholders to prioritize the implementation of effective policies, programs, and interventions that will improve access to and utilization of ANC and immunization services among urban slum dwellers.

Effect of Patient Support Groups for Hypertension on Blood Pressure among Patients with and Without Multimorbidity: Findings from a Cohort Study of Patients on a Home-Based Self-Management Program in Kenya.

Introduction: Patient support group interventions have been widely used to manage chronic diseases in Kenya. However, the potential benefits of these groups on patient health outcomes, and how this is influenced by multimorbidity, have not been rigorously evaluated. Objective: We assessed the effect of a patient support group intervention on blood pressure (BP) management and the potential moderating effect of multimorbidity among low- and middle-income patients with hypertension in Kenya. Methods: We analysed data from a non-randomized, quasi-experimental study of 410 patients with hypertension on a home-based self-management program conducted from September 2019 to September 2020. The program included the formation and participation in patient support groups. Using a modified STEPS questionnaire, data were collected on BP, anthropometry and other measurements at enrolment and after 12 months of follow-up. Multimorbidity was defined as the simultaneous presence of hypertension and at least one or more related conditions with similar pathophysiology (concordant multimorbidity) or unrelated chronic conditions (discordant multimorbidity). Propensity score (PS) weighting was used to adjust for baseline differences among 243 patients who participated in the support groups and 167 who did not. We estimated the effects of patient support groups and moderating effects of multimorbidity on BP management using multivariable ordinary linear regression weighted by PS. Findings: Participation in support groups significantly reduced systolic BP by 5.4 mmHg compared to non-participation in the groups [ß = -5.4; 95% CI -1.9 to -8.8]. However, among participants in the support group intervention, the mean systolic BP at follow-up assessment for those with concordant multimorbidity was 8.8 mmHg higher than those with no multimorbidity [ß = 8.8; 95% CI 0.8 to 16.8]. Conclusion: Although patient support groups are potentially important adjuncts to home-based self-care, multimorbidity attenuates their effectiveness. There is a need to tailor patient support group interventions to match the needs of the people living with multimorbidity in low- and middle-income settings in Kenya.

Housing and health outcomes: evidence on child morbidities from six Sub-Saharan African countries.

BACKGROUND: The connection between healthy housing status and health is well established. The quality of housing plays a significant role in infectious and non-communicable as well as vector-borne diseases. The global burden of disease attributable to housing is considerable with millions of deaths arising from diarrheal and respiratory diseases annually. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the quality of housing remains poor although improvements have been documented. There is a general dearth of comparative analysis across several countries in the sub-region. We assess in this study, the association between healthy housing and child morbidity across six countries in SSA. METHODS: We use the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data for six countries where the most recent survey collected health outcome data on child diarrhoea, acute respiratory illness, and fever. The total sample size of 91,096 is used in the analysis (representing 15, 044 for Burkina Faso, 11, 732 for Cameroon, 5, 884 for Ghana, 20, 964 for Kenya, 33, 924 for Nigeria, and 3,548 for South Africa). The key exposure variable is healthy housing status. We control for various factors associated with the three childhood health outcomes. These include quality housing status, residency (rural/urban), age of the head of the household, mother's education, mother's BMI status, marital status, mother's age, and religious status. Others include the child's gender, age, whether the child is from multiple or single births, and breastfeeding status. Inferential analysis using survey-weighted logistic regression is employed. RESULTS: Our findings indicate that housing is an important determinant of the three outcomes investigated. Compared to unhealthier housing, healthy housing status was found to be associated with reduced odds of diarrhoea in Cameroon [Healthiest: aOR = 0.48, 95% CI, (0.32,0.71), healthier: aOR = 0.50, 95% CI,(0.35,0.70), Healthy: aOR = 0.60, 95% CI, (0.44,0.83), Unhealthy: aOR = 0.60, 95% CI, (0.44,0.81)], Kenya [Healthiest: aOR = 0.68, 95% CI, (0.52,0.87), Healtheir: aOR = 0.79, 95% CI, (0.63,0.98), Healthy: aOR = 0.76, 95% CI, (0.62,0.91)], South Africa[Healthy: aOR = 0.41, 95% CI, (0.18, 0.97)], and Nigeria [Healthiest: aOR = 0.48, 95% CI,(0.37,0.62), Healthier: aOR = 0.61, 95% CI,(0.50,0.74), Healthy: aOR = 0.71, 95%CI, (0.59,0.86), Unhealthy: aOR = 0.78, 95% CI, (0.67,0.91)], and reduced odds of Acute Respiratory Infection in Cameroon [Healthy: aOR = 0.72, 95% CI,(0.54,0.96)], Kenya [Healthiest: aOR = 0.66, 95% CI, (0.54,0.81), Healthier: aOR = 0.81, 95% CI, (0.69,0.95)], and Nigeria [Healthiest: aOR = 0.69, 95% CI, (0.56,0.85), Healthier: aOR = 0.72, 95% CI, (0.60,0.87), Healthy: aOR = 0.78, 95% CI, (0.66,0.92), Unhealthy: aOR = 0.80, 95% CI, (0.69,0.93)] while it was associated with increased odds in Burkina Faso [Healthiest: aOR = 2.45, 95% CI, (1.39,4.34), Healthy: aOR = 1.55, 95% CI, (1.09,2.20)] and South Africa [Healthy: aOR = 2.36 95% CI, (1.31, 4.25)]. In addition, healthy housing was significantly associated with reduced odds of fever among children in all countries except South Africa [Healthiest: aOR = 2.09, 95% CI, (1.02, 4.29)] where children living in the healthiest homes had more than double the odds of having fever. In addition, household-level factors such as the age of the household head, and place of residence were associated with the outcomes. Child-level factors such as breastfeeding status, age, and sex, and maternal-level factors such as education, age, marital status, body mass index (BMI), and religion were also associated with the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The dissimilarity of findings across similar covariates and the multiple relations between healthy housing and under 5 morbidity patterns show unequivocally the heterogeneity that exists across African countries and the need to account for different contexts in efforts to seek an understanding of the role of healthy housing in child morbidity and general health outcomes.

Change in glycaemic control with structured diabetes self-management education in urban low-resource settings: multicentre randomised trial of effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: In high-resource settings, structured diabetes self-management education is associated with improved outcomes but the evidence from low-resource settings is limited and inconclusive. AIM: To compare, structured diabetes self-management education to usual care, in adults with type 2 diabetes, in low-resource settings. DESIGN: Single-blind randomised parallel comparator controlled multi-centre trial. Adults (> 18 years) with type 2 diabetes from two hospitals in urban Ghana were randomised 1:1 to usual care only, or usual care plus a structured diabetes self-management education program. Randomisation codes were computer-generated, and allotment concealed in opaque numbered envelopes. The intervention effect was assessed with linear mixed models. MAIN OUTCOME: Change in HbA1c after 3-month follow-up. Primary analysis involved all participants. CLINICALTRIAL: gov identifier:NCT04780425, retrospectively registered on 03/03/2021. RESULTS: Recruitment: 22nd until 29th January 2021. We randomised 206 participants (69% female, median age 58 years [IQR: 49-64], baseline HbA1c median 64 mmol/mol [IQR: 45-88 mmol/mol],7.9%[IQR: 6.4-10.2]). Primary outcome data was available for 79 and 80 participants in the intervention and control groups, respectively. Reasons for loss to follow-up were death (n = 1), stroke(n = 1) and unreachable or unavailable (n = 47). A reduction in HbA1c was found in both groups; -9 mmol/mol [95% CI: -13 to -5 mmol/mol], -0·9% [95% CI: -1·2% to -0·51%] in the intervention group and -3 mmol/mol [95% CI -6 to 1 mmol/mol], -0·3% [95% CI: -0·6% to 0.0%] in the control group. The intervention effect was 1 mmol/mol [95%CI:-5 TO 8 p = 0.726]; 0.1% [95% CI: -0.5, 0.7], p = 0·724], adjusted for site, age, and duration of diabetes. No significant harms were observed. CONCLUSION: In low-resource settings, diabetes self-management education might not be associated with glycaemic control. Clinician's expectations from diabetes self-management education must therefore be guarded.

Characterization of functional disability among older adults in Ghana: A multi-level analysis of the study on global ageing and adult health (SAGE) Wave II.

BACKGROUND: Functional disability is a common public health problem that affects the health and quality of life of older adults. This causes them to be highly dependent on other members of their family, receive home care, or to be institutionalized. Although functional disability has been widely studied in developed country settings, very limited studies have focused on age-related functional disability in sub-Saharan Africa, and in particular Ghana. The purpose of this study is to assess various factors associated with the difficulties in performing basic and instrumental activities of daily living among older adults in Ghana. METHODS: This cross-sectional study used data on 1610 older adults aged 50 years and above from the Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) survey Wave II conducted in Ghana. Nine standard functioning difficulty tools of WHODAS II was used for the analysis. The WHODAS II offers continuous summary scores with higher scores showing higher disability, and vice versa. A multi-level regression model was used to identify individual and household level risk factors linked to the functional disability of older adults. RESULTS: Female older adults (53.7%) reported having functional disability. The mean functional disability among older adults aged 50 years and above was 5.2 (± 5.9). Results indicated that older adults who are females, aged 70 years and above, and had three or more chronic conditions had a higher functional disability. Also, older adults who have adequate fruit intake and belong to wealthier households were found to have a lower functional disability. CONCLUSIONS: The study reveals that functional disability among older adults is frequent in Ghana and is associated with having three or more chronic conditions and being overweight/obese. Prevention of functional disability in old age in Ghana is therefore a matter of great social and economic concern, which calls for coordinate efforts across the board to mitigate this public health challenge.

The short-term effect of the government of Ghana's decision to open borders at the early-onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPI) are used in public health to mitigate the risk and impact of epidemics or pandemics in the absence of medical or pharmaceutical solutions. Prior to the release of vaccines, COVID-19 control solely depended on NPIs. The Government of Ghana after assessing early NPIs introduced at the early stage of the pandemic began to ease some restrictions by the opening of international borders with isolation and quarantine measures enforced. It was argued by some experts that this was a hasty decision. In this study, we assessed the impact of the opening of borders to ascertain if this action caused a surge or otherwise in cases in the country. Using data from the database on Africa's records of COVID-19 from the John Hopkins University, the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) time-series regression model for count data was applied to study effects in Ghana during a 4-month and 8-month period post-opening of borders. The study showed that after the decision of the government to open international borders, Ghana's expected case count declined by 72.01 % in the 4-month period and 54.44 % in the 8-month period. This gives an indication of the gradual reversal of the gains made due to the early implementation of NPIs. Notably, this may not only be attributed to the opening of borders but the relaxation of the strict enforcement measures that were put in place at the onset of the pandemic in Ghana. There is therefore the need for continuous enforcement of intervention measures to reduce case counts, particularly with the emergence of new COVID-19 virus strains. The study provides some recommendations for policy and improvements in model building such as developing better data collection system in Ghana, investigating more control variables, estimating the decaying effect of interventions, and ensuring better preparations prior to easing of public health restrictions.

Urinary Pesticide Residual Levels and Acute Respiratory Infections in Children Under 5 Years of Age: Findings From the Offinso North Farm Health Study.

Background: Several environmental factors are associated with the risk of acute lower respiratory infections (ALRIs) and upper respiratory infections (URIs) in children under 5 years of age (YOA). Evidence implicating chemical pesticides remains equivocal. There are also no data on this subject in these children in Ghana. This study investigated the association between urinary pesticide residual levels and the risk for ALRIs/URIs in children under 5 YOA. Methods: The participants for this study were from the Offinso North Farm Health Study, a population-based cross-sectional study. Two hundred and fifty four parents/guardians who had answered affirmatively to the question "Has your child ever accompanied you to the farm?" were interviewed on household socio-demographic and environmental factors, being breastfed, child education, age, gender, and respiratory infection. One hundred fifty children were randomly selected to provide the first void urine. Results: The proportion of children with ALRI was 22.1% and those with URI was 35.8%. We observed a statistically significant exposure-response relation of p,p'-DDE (tertile) with ALRI (1.7-3.2 µg/L urine: prevalence ratio [PR] = 1.22 [1.05-1.70], ⩾3.2 µg/L urine: 1.50 [1.07-3.53] [P-for trend = .0297]). This observation was in children older than two YOA (P-for trend = .0404). Delta-HCH and beta-HCH (2-levels) were significantly associated with ALRI but not URI. The risk of ALRI increased with deltamethrin levels in an exposure-response manner (2.5-9.5 µg/L urine: 2.10 [1.37-3.24], ⩾9.5 µg/L urine: 4.38 [1.87-10.32] [P-for trend = .0011]) and this was also observed in children older than two YOA. Similar observation was noted for URI. Bifenthrin (>0.5 µg/L urine) was positively associated with ALRI and URI whereas permethrin (⩾1.2 µg/L urine) was not associated only with URI. Conclusions: The present study supports the hypothesis that exposure to chemical pesticides is associated with respiratory infections in children under 5 YOA.

Characterization of Healthy Housing in Africa: Method, Profiles, and Determinants.

Housing is a key social determinant of health with implications for both physical and mental health. The measurement of healthy housing and studies characterizing the same in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are uncommon. This study described a methodological approach employed in the assessment and characterization of healthy housing in SSA using the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data for 15 countries and explored healthy housing determinants using a multiple survey-weighted logistic regression analysis. For all countries, we demonstrated that the healthy housing index developed using factor analysis reasonably satisfies both reliability and validity tests and can therefore be used to describe the distribution of healthy housing across different groups and in understanding the linkage with individual health outcomes. We infer from the results that unhealthy housing remains quite high in most SSA countries. Having a male head of the household was associated with decreased odds of healthy housing in Burkina Faso (OR = 0.80, CI = 0.68-0.95), Cameroon (OR = 0.65, CI = 0.57, 0.76), Malawi (OR = 0.70, CI = 0.64-0.78), and Senegal (OR = 0.62, CI = 0.51-0.74). Further, increasing household size was associated with reducing odds of healthy housing in Kenya (OR = 0.53, CI = 0.44-0.65), Namibia (OR = 0.34, CI = 0.24-0.48), Nigeria (OR = 0.57, CI = 0.46-0.71), and Uganda (OR = 0.79, CI = 0.67-0.94). Across all countries, household wealth was a strong determinant of healthy housing, with middle and rich households having higher odds of residing in healthy homes compared to poor households. Odds ratios ranged from 3.63 (CI = 2.96-4.44) for households in the middle wealth group in the DRC to 2812.2 (CI = 1634.8-4837.7) in Namibia's wealthiest households. For other factors, the analysis also showed variation across countries. Our findings provide timely insights for the implementation of housing policies across SSA countries, drawing attention to aspects of housing that would promote occupant health and wellbeing. Beyond the contribution to the measurement of healthy housing in SSA, our paper highlights key policy and program issues that need further interrogation in the search for pathways to addressing the healthy housing deficit across most SSA countries. This has become critical amid the COVID-19 pandemic, where access to healthy housing is pivotal in its control.

Mathematical modelling of earlier stages of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Ghana.

In late 2019, a novel coronavirus, the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak was identified in Wuhan, China and later spread to every corner of the globe. Whilst the number of infection-induced deaths in Ghana, West Africa are minimal when compared with the rest of the world, the impact on the local health service is still significant. Compartmental models are a useful framework for investigating transmission of diseases in societies. To understand how the infection will spread and how to limit the outbreak. We have developed a modified SEIR compartmental model with nine compartments (CoVCom9) to describe the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Ghana. We have carried out a detailed mathematical analysis of the CoVCom9, including the derivation of the basic reproduction number, R 0 . In particular, we have shown that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R 0 < 1 via a candidate Lyapunov function. Using the SARS-CoV-2 reported data for confirmed-positive cases and deaths from March 13 to August 10, 2020, we have parametrised the CoVCom9 model. The results of this fit show good agreement with data. We used Latin hypercube sampling-rank correlation coefficient (LHS-PRCC) to investigate the uncertainty and sensitivity of R 0 since the results derived are significant in controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate that over this five month period, the basic reproduction number is given by R 0 = 3 . 110 , with the 95% confidence interval being 2 . 042 ≤ R 0 ≤ 3 . 240 , and the mean value being R 0 = 2 . 623 . Of the 32 parameters in the model, we find that just six have a significant influence on R 0 , these include the rate of testing, where an increasing testing rate contributes to the reduction of R 0 .

Coping strategies adapted by Ghanaians during the COVID-19 crisis and lockdown: A population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and control measures adopted by countries globally can lead to stress and anxiety. Investigating the coping strategies to this unprecedented crisis is essential to guide mental health intervention and public health policy. This study examined how people are coping with the COVID-19 crisis in Ghana and identify factors influencing it. METHODS: This study was part of a multinational online cross-sectional survey on Personal and Family Coping with COVID-19 in the Global South. The study population included adults, ≥18 years and residents in Ghana. Respondents were recruited through different platforms, including social media and phone calls. The questionnaire was composed of different psychometrically validated instruments with coping as the outcome variable measured on the ordinal scale with 3 levels, namely, Not well or worse, Neutral, and Well or better. An ordinal logistic regression model using proportional odds assumption was then applied. RESULTS: A total of 811 responses were included in the analysis with 45.2% describing their coping level as well/better, 42.4% as neither worse nor better and 12.4% as worse/not well. Many respondents (46.9%) were between 25-34 years, 50.1% were males while 79.2% lived in urban Ghana. Having pre-existing conditions increased the chances of not coping well (aOR = 1.86, 95%CI: 1.15-3.01). Not being concerned about supporting the family financially (aOR = 1.67, 95%CI: 1.06-2.68) or having the feeling that life is better during the pandemic (aOR = 2.37, 95%CI: 1.26-4.62) increased chances of coping well. Praying (aOR: 0.62, 95%CI: 0.43-0.90) or sleeping (aOR: 0.55, 95%CI: 0.34-0.89) more during the pandemic than before reduces coping. CONCLUSION: In Ghana, during the COVID-19 pandemic, financial security and optimism about the disease increase one's chances of coping well while having pre-existing medical conditions, praying and sleeping more during the pandemic than before reduces one's chances of coping well. These findings should be considered in planning mental health and public health intervention/policy.

Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 infection dynamics in Ghana: Impact evaluation of integrated government and individual level interventions.

The raging COVID-19 pandemic is arguably the most important threat to global health presently. Although there Although there is currently a a a vaccine, preventive measures have been proposed to reduce the spread of infection but the efficacy of these interventions, and their likely impact on the number of COVID-19 infections is unknown. In this study, we proposed the SEIQHRS model (susceptible-exposed-infectious-quarantine-hospitalized-recovered-susceptible) model that predicts the trajectory of the epidemic to help plan an effective control strategy for COVID-19 in Ghana. We provided a short-term forecast of the early phase of the epidemic trajectory in Ghana using the generalized growth model. We estimated the effective basic Reproductive number Re in real-time using three different estimation procedures and simulated worse case epidemic scenarios and the impact of integrated individual and government interventions on the epidemic in the long term using compartmental models. The maximum likelihood estimates of Re and the corresponding 95% confidence interval was 2.04 [95% CI: 1.82-2.27; 12th March-7th April 2020]. The Re estimate using the exponential growth method was 2.11 [95% CI: 2.00-2.24] within the same period. The Re estimate using time-dependent (TD) method showed a gradual decline of the Effective Reproductive Number since March 12, 2020 when the first 2 index cases were recorded but the rate of transmission remains high (TD: Re = 2.52; 95% CI: [1.87-3.49]). The current estimate of Re based on the TD method is 1.74 [95% CI: 1.41-2.10; (13th May 2020)] but with comprehensive integrated government and individual level interventions, the Re could reduce to 0.5 which is an indication of the epidemic dying out in the general population. Our results showed that enhanced government and individual-level interventions and the intensity of media coverage could have a substantial effect on suppressing transmission of new COVID-19 cases and reduced death rates in Ghana until such a time that a potent vaccine or drug is discovered.

Trends and risk factors for non-communicable diseases mortality in Nairobi slums (2008-2017).

INTRODUCTION: Tracking progress in reaching global targets for reducing premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) requires accurately collected population based longitudinal data. However, most African countries lack such data because of weak or non-existent civil registration systems. We used data from the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUDSS) to estimate NCD mortality trends over time and to explore the determinants of NCD mortality. METHODS: Deaths identified in the NUHDSS were followed up with a verbal autopsy to determine the signs and symptoms preceding the death. Causes of death were then assigned using InSilicoVA algorithm. We calculated the rates of NCD mortality in the whole NUHDSS population between 2008 and 2017, looking at how these changed over time. We then merged NCD survey data collected in 2008, which contains information on potential determinants of NCD mortality in a sub-sample of the NUHDSS population, with follow up information from the full NUHDSS including whether any of the participants died of an NCD or non-NCD cause. Poisson regression models were used to identify independent risk factors (broadly categorized as socio-demographic, behavioural and physiological) for NCD mortality, as well as non-NCD mortality. RESULTS: In the total NUHDSS population of adults age 18 and over, 23% were assigned an NCD as the most likely cause of death. There was evidence that NCD mortality decreased over the study period, with rates of NCD mortality dropping from 1.32 per 1000 person years in 2008-10 (95% CI: 1.13-1.54) to 0.93 per 1000 person years in 2014-17 (95% CI: 0.80-1.08). Of 5115 individuals who participated in the NCD survey in 2008, 421 died during the follow-up period of which 43% were attributed to NCDs. Increasing age, lower education levels, ever smoking and having high blood pressure were identified as independent determinants of NCD mortality in multivariate analyses. CONCLUSION: We found that NCDs account for one-quarter of mortality in Nairobi slums, although we document a reduction in the rate of NCD mortality over time. This may be attributed to increased surveillance and introduction of population-wide NCD interventions and health system improvements from research activities in the slums. To achieve further decline there is a need to strengthen health systems to respond to NCD care and prevention along with addressing social factors such as education.

Determinants of transitions in water and sanitation services in two urban slums of Nairobi: A multi-state modeling approach.

Access to improved water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) services at the household level remains a good strategy to improve the health and well-being of individuals. Informal settlements, such as urban slums, are at risk of the spread of diseases due to the relative lack of access to safe, clean drinking water and basic sanitation, as well as poor hygiene. Global initiatives, such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted by the United Nations, are aimed at transitioning households and communities from unimproved to sustained improved states of WASH services. To deepen understanding of the time dynamics between states of WASH services in the Nairobi Urban and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS), this study employs the multi-state transition model to assess the influence of potential risk factors on these transitions. Results indicated that study sites, wealth tertile, age of household head, poverty status, the ethnicity of household head, household ownership, and food security were associated with household transitions of WASH services. There was a lower probability for households to transition from unimproved to improved toilet services than the reverse transition, but a higher chance for households to transition from unimproved to improved water and garbage services. The estimated average time that households spent in the unimproved and improved states before transitioning were, respectively, 35 months and 9 months for toilet services, 7 months and 66 months for water services, and 16 months and 19 months for garbage services. Thus, households tend to remain longer in the unimproved state of toilet and garbage services, and when in the improved states, they transition back relatively faster compared to water services. In conclusion, sanitation services in Nairobi informal settings remain largely unsatisfactory as transitions to improved services are not sustained. It is therefore important for governments, policy-makers, and stakeholders to put in place policies and interventions targeting vulnerable households for improved and sustained WASH services.

Do inequalities exist in the disadvantaged populations? Levels and trends of full and on-time vaccination coverage in two Nairobi urban informal settlements.

There has been an improvement in childhood vaccination coverage over the last two decades worldwide. However, inequities exist among different populations. Vaccination programs should focus not only on increasing coverage but as also in timeliness to ensure maximum protection. This study examined the levels, inequities, and trends of full and on-time vaccination coverage in two urban informal settlements in Nairobi. The study used longitudinal data from the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System from 2003 to 2017 to estimate full and on-time vaccination coverage and assess inequalities by background characteristics. The frailty shared Cox model was used to assess time to full- and on-time- immunization coverage. Out of 32,018 children aged 12 to 59 months, less than half (46.7%) produced a vaccination card during the interview. Full and timely immunization coverage was higher in Viwandani site, among Kikuyu and Kamba ethnic groups, and children from the richest quintile. Timely vaccination was below 50% throughout the survey periods. After accounting for the intragroup correlations, for a given level of frailty, the hazard for being fully immunized was 10% more likely among the wealthiest compared to the poorest children. The hazard for being fully immunized was 16%, 16% to 19% less likely for Luhya, Luo, and others as compared to the Kikuyu ethnicity respectively. In conclusion, the study has shown that coverage has been increasing over the years but inequalities exist in immunization coverage among the most disadvantaged populations. More focused intervention approaches that target the disadvantaged groups are needed.