Economic Considerations for Advancement Through the Progressive Control Pathway: Cost-Benefit Analysis of an FMD Disease-Free Zone in Punjab Province, Pakistan.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a priority disease of livestock in Pakistan, which was classified in stage 2 of the Progressive Control Pathway (PCP-FMD) in 2015, aiming to reduce disease impact. Further progression requires efforts to reduce viral circulation that may ultimately result in being awarded official disease-free status by the World Organisation for Animal Health [Office International des Epizooties (OIE)]. Typically, FMD control is reliant on the extensive use of vaccines, requiring careful consideration of the costs and benefits to ensure investment is likely to provide a positive return. This study conducted a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) for a proposed zone within Punjab Province, Pakistan. Benefits were assumed to come from averted production losses and treatment costs and the costs based on typical measures required for establishing a disease-free zone. To estimate the impact of FMD at the farm level, models were created to estimate effects on milk production, offtakes, and changes in herd value over a 5-year period with different parameters used to represent the production systems present. Control strategy costs incorporated aspects of vaccination, surveillance, sanitary measures, program management, stakeholder engagement, preparatory studies, training, and capacity building. The results indicated a median benefit-cost ratio of 1.03 (90% central range 0.37, 1.63) with a median net present value of 1.99 billion Pakistan Rupees (90% central range -37.7, 37.0). The greatest cost was due to vaccination at 56%, followed by sanitary measures (including implementing and maintaining an animal ID system and quarantine stations around the zone) at 41%. Although the median benefit-cost ratio and net present value indicated that investment is likely to generate a positive return, the large variation indicates caution in interpreting the results and it is possible that an increase in animal value through new export markets will be required. Further refinement in our knowledge of disease impact and the details of the control strategy are needed. Moreover, there are implications regarding vaccine security, since the strategy is reliant on the steady provision of quality vaccines in order to achieve the anticipated benefits, raising important issues on vaccine availability for countries to maintain lucrative export markets for FMD.

Response and resilience of Asian agrifood systems to COVID-19: An assessment across twenty-five countries and four regional farming and food systems.

Context: The COVID-19 pandemic has been affecting health and economies across the world, although the nature of direct and indirect effects on Asian agrifood systems and food security has not yet been well understood. Objectives: This paper assesses the initial responses of major farming and food systems to COVID-19 in 25 Asian countries, and considers the implications for resilience, food and nutrition security and recovery policies by the governments. Methods: A conceptual systems model was specified including key pathways linking the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 to the resilience and performance of the four principal Asian farming and food systems, viz, lowland rice based; irrigated wheat based; hill mixed; and dryland mixed systems. Based on this framework, a systematic survey of 2504 key informants (4% policy makers, 6% researchers or University staff, 6% extension workers, 65% farmers, and 19% others) in 20 Asian countries was conducted and the results assessed and analysed. Results and conclusion: The principal Asian farming and food systems were moderately resilient to COVID-19, reinforced by government policies in many countries that prioritized food availability and affordability. Rural livelihoods and food security were affected primarily because of disruptions to local labour markets (especially for off-farm work), farm produce markets (notably for perishable foods) and input supply chains (i.e., seeds and fertilisers). The overall effects on system performance were most severe in the irrigated wheat based system and least severe in the hill mixed system, associated in the latter case with greater resilience and diversification and less dependence on external inputs and long market chains. Farming and food systems' resilience and sustainability are critical considerations for recovery policies and programmes, especially in relation to economic performance that initially recovered more slowly than productivity, natural resources status and social capital. Overall, the resilience of Asian farming and food systems was strong because of inherent systems characteristics reinforced by public policies that prioritized staple food production and distribution as well as complementary welfare programmes. With the substantial risks to plant- and animal-sourced food supplies from future zoonoses and the institutional vulnerabilities revealed by COVID-19, efforts to improve resilience should be central to recovery programmes. Significance: This study was the first Asia-wide systems assessment of the effects of COVID-19 on agriculture and food systems, differentiating the effects of the pandemic across the four principal regional farming and food systems in the region.