Digital twins and artificial intelligence in metabolic disease research.

Digital twin technology is emerging as a transformative paradigm for personalized medicine in the management of chronic conditions. In this article, we explore the concept and key characteristics of a digital twin and its applications in chronic non-communicable metabolic disease management, with a focus on diabetes case studies. We cover various types of digital twin models, including mechanistic models based on ODEs, data-driven ML algorithms, and hybrid modeling strategies that combine the strengths of both approaches. We present successful case studies demonstrating the potential of digital twins in improving glucose outcomes for individuals with T1D and T2D, and discuss the benefits and challenges of translating digital twin research applications to clinical practice.

The Association Between Diet Quality and Glycemic Outcomes Among People with Type 1 Diabetes.

Background: The amount and type of food consumed impacts the glycemic response and insulin needs of people with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). Daily variability in consumption, reflected in diet quality, may acutely impact glycemic levels and insulin needs. Objective: Type 1 Diabetes Exercise Initiative (T1DEXI) data were examined to evaluate the impact of daily diet quality on near-term glycemic control and interaction with exercise. Methods: Using the Remote Food Photography Method, ≤8 d of dietary intake data were analyzed per participant. Diet quality was quantified with the Healthy Eating Index-2015 (HEI), where a score of 100 indicates the highest-quality diet. Each participant day was classified as low HEI (≤57) or high HEI (>57) based on the mean of nationally reported HEI data. Within participants, the relationship between diet quality and subsequent glycemia measured by continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) and total insulin dose usage was evaluated using a paired t-test and robust regression models. Results: Two hundred twenty-three adults (76% female) with mean ± SD age, HbA1c, and body mass index (BMI) of 37 ± 14 y, 6.6% ± 0.7%, and 25.1 ± 3.6 kg/m2, respectively, were included in these analyses. The mean HEI score was 56 across all participant days. On high HEI days (mean, 66 ± 4) compared with low HEI days (mean, 47 ± 5), total time in range (70-180 mg/dL) was greater (77.2% ± 14% compared with 75.7% ± 14%, respectively, P = 0.01), whereas time above 180 mg/dL (19% ± 14% compared with 21% ± 15%, respectively, P = 0.004), mean glucose (143 ± 22 compared with 145 ± 22 mg/dL, respectively, P = 0.02), and total daily insulin dose (0.52 ± 0.18 compared with 0.54 ± 0.18 U/kg/d, respectively, P = 0.009) were lower. The interaction between diet quality and exercise on glycemia was not significant. Conclusions: Higher HEI scores correlated with improved glycemia and lower insulin needs, although the impact of diet quality was modest and smaller than the previously reported impact of exercise.

Associations between daily step count classifications and continuous glucose monitoring metrics in adults with type 1 diabetes: analysis of the Type 1 Diabetes Exercise Initiative (T1DEXI) cohort.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Adults with type 1 diabetes should perform daily physical activity to help maintain health and fitness, but the influence of daily step counts on continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) metrics are unclear. This analysis used the Type 1 Diabetes Exercise Initiative (T1DEXI) dataset to investigate the effect of daily step count on CGM-based metrics. METHODS: In a 4 week free-living observational study of adults with type 1 diabetes, with available CGM and step count data, we categorised participants into three groups-below (<7000), meeting (7000-10,000) or exceeding (>10,000) the daily step count goal-to determine if step count category influenced CGM metrics, including per cent time in range (TIR: 3.9-10.0 mmol/l), time below range (TBR: <3.9 mmol/l) and time above range (TAR: >10.0 mmol/l). RESULTS: A total of 464 adults with type 1 diabetes (mean±SD age 37±14 years; HbA1c 48.8±8.1 mmol/mol [6.6±0.7%]; 73% female; 45% hybrid closed-loop system, 38% standard insulin pump, 17% multiple daily insulin injections) were included in the study. Between-participant analyses showed that individuals who exceeded the mean daily step count goal over the 4 week period had a similar TIR (75±14%) to those meeting (74±14%) or below (75±16%) the step count goal (p>0.05). In the within-participant comparisons, TIR was higher on days when the step count goal was exceeded or met (both 75±15%) than on days below the step count goal (73±16%; both p<0.001). The TBR was also higher when individuals exceeded the step count goals (3.1%±3.2%) than on days when they met or were below step count goals (difference in means -0.3% [p=0.006] and -0.4% [p=0.001], respectively). The total daily insulin dose was lower on days when step count goals were exceeded (0.52±0.18 U/kg; p<0.001) or were met (0.53±0.18 U/kg; p<0.001) than on days when step counts were below the current recommendation (0.55±0.18 U/kg). Step count had a larger effect on CGM-based metrics in participants with a baseline HbA1c ≥53 mmol/mol (≥7.0%). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that, compared with days with low step counts, days with higher step counts are associated with slight increases in both TIR and TBR, along with small reductions in total daily insulin requirements, in adults living with type 1 diabetes. DATA AVAILABILITY: The data that support the findings reported here are available on the Vivli Platform (ID: T1-DEXI; https://doi.org/10.25934/PR00008428 ).

Impact of impaired awareness of hypoglycemia on glucose decline during and after exercise in T1D: The T1DEXI Study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether impaired awareness of hypoglycemia (IAH) affects exercise-associated hypoglycemia in adults with type 1 diabetes (T1D). METHODS: We compared continuous glucose monitoring (CGM)-measured glucose during exercise and for 24-hours following exercise from 95 adults with T1D and IAH (Clarke score ≥4 or ≥1 severe hypoglycemic event within the past year) to 95 'Aware' adults (Clarke score ≤2 and no severe hypoglycemic event within the past year) matched on sex, age, insulin delivery modality, and HbA1c. A total of 4,236 exercise sessions, and 1,794 exercise days and 839 sedentary days, defined as 24-hours following exercise or a day without exercise, respectively, were available for analysis. RESULTS: Participants with IAH exhibited a non-significant trend towards greater decline in glucose during exercise compared to 'Aware' (-21 ± 44 vs. -19 ± 43 mg/dL [-1.17 ± 2.44 vs. -1.05 ± 2.39 mmol/L], adjusted group difference of -4.2 [95% CI: -8.4 to 0.05] mg/dL [-0.23 95% CI: -0.47 to 0.003 mmol/L], P = 0.051). Individuals with IAH had higher proportion of days with hypoglycemic events <70 mg/dL[3.89 mmol/L] (≥15 minutes <70 mg/dL[<3.89 mmol/L]) both on exercise days (51% vs. 43%, P = 0.006) and sedentary days (48% vs. 30%, P = 0.001). The increased odds of experiencing a hypoglycemic event <70 mg/dL[<3.89 mmol/L] for individuals with IAH compared to 'Aware' did not differ significantly between exercise and sedentary days (interaction P = 0.36). CONCLUSION: Individuals with IAH have a higher underlying risk of hypoglycemia than 'Aware' individuals. Exercise does not appear to differentially increase risk for hypoglycemia during the activity, or in the subsequent 24-hours for IAH compared to Aware individuals with T1D.

Factors Affecting Reproducibility of Change in Glucose During Exercise: Results From the Type 1 Diabetes and EXercise Initiative.

AIMS: To evaluate factors affecting within-participant reproducibility in glycemic response to different forms of exercise. METHODS: Structured exercise sessions ~30 minutes in length from the Type 1 Diabetes Exercise Initiative (T1DEXI) study were used to assess within-participant glycemic variability during and after exercise. The effect of several pre-exercise factors on the within-participant glycemic variability was evaluated. RESULTS: Data from 476 adults with type 1 diabetes were analyzed. A participant's change in glucose during exercise was reproducible within 15 mg/dL of the participant's other exercise sessions only 32% of the time. Participants who exercised with lower and more consistent glucose level, insulin on board (IOB), and carbohydrate intake at exercise start had less variability in glycemic change during exercise. Participants with lower mean glucose (P < .001), lower glucose coefficient of variation (CV) (P < .001), and lower % time <70 mg/dL (P = .005) on sedentary days had less variable 24-hour post-exercise mean glucose. CONCLUSIONS: Reproducibility of change in glucose during exercise was low in this cohort of adults with T1D, but more consistency in pre-exercise glucose levels, IOB, and carbohydrates may increase this reproducibility. Mean glucose variability in the 24 hours after exercise is influenced more by the participant's overall glycemic control than other modifiable factors.

Design and In Silico Evaluation of an Exercise Decision Support System Using Digital Twin Models.

BACKGROUND: Managing glucose levels during exercise is challenging for individuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D) since multiple factors including activity type, duration, intensity and other factors must be considered. Current decision support tools lack personalized recommendations and fail to distinguish between aerobic and resistance exercise. We propose an exercise-aware decision support system (exDSS) that uses digital twins to deliver personalized recommendations to help people with T1D maintain safe glucose levels (70-180 mg/dL) and avoid low glucose (<70 mg/dL) during and after exercise. METHODS: We evaluated exDSS using various exercise and meal scenarios recorded from a large, free-living study of aerobic and resistance exercise. The model inputs were heart rate, insulin, and meal data. Glucose responses were simulated during and after 30-minute exercise sessions (676 aerobic, 631 resistance) from 247 participants. Glucose outcomes were compared when participants followed exDSS recommendations, clinical guidelines, or did not modify behavior (no intervention). RESULTS: exDSS significantly improved mean time in range for aerobic (80.2% to 92.3%, P < .0001) and resistance (72.3% to 87.3%, P < .0001) exercises compared with no intervention, and versus clinical guidelines (aerobic: 82.2%, P < .0001; resistance: 80.3%, P < .0001). exDSS reduced time spent in low glucose for both exercise types compared with no intervention (aerobic: 15.1% to 5.1%, P < .0001; resistance: 18.2% to 6.6%, P < .0001) and was comparable with following clinical guidelines (aerobic: 4.5%, resistance: 8.1%, P = N.S.). CONCLUSIONS: The exDSS tool significantly improved glucose outcomes during and after exercise versus following clinical guidelines and no intervention providing motivation for clinical evaluation of the exDSS system.

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning for Improving Glycemic Control in Diabetes: Best Practices, Pitfalls, and Opportunities.

OBJECTIVE: Artificial intelligence and machine learning are transforming many fields including medicine. In diabetes, robust biosensing technologies and automated insulin delivery therapies have created a substantial opportunity to improve health. While the number of manuscripts addressing the topic of applying machine learning to diabetes has grown in recent years, there has been a lack of consistency in the methods, metrics, and data used to train and evaluate these algorithms. This manuscript provides consensus guidelines for machine learning practitioners in the field of diabetes, including best practice recommended approaches and warnings about pitfalls to avoid. METHODS: Algorithmic approaches are reviewed and benefits of different algorithms are discussed including importance of clinical accuracy, explainability, interpretability, and personalization. We review the most common features used in machine learning applications in diabetes glucose control and provide an open-source library of functions for calculating features, as well as a framework for specifying data sets using data sheets. A review of current data sets available for training algorithms is provided as well as an online repository of data sources. SIGNIFICANCE: These consensus guidelines are designed to improve performance and translatability of new machine learning algorithms developed in the field of diabetes for engineers and data scientists.

Risky movement: Assessing fall risk in people with multiple sclerosis with wearable sensors and beacon-based smart-home monitoring.

BACKGROUND: People with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) fall frequently causing injury, social isolation, and decreased quality of life. Identifying locations and behaviors associated with high fall risk could help direct fall prevention interventions. Here we describe a smart-home system for assessing how mobility metrics relate to real-world fall risk in PwMS. METHODS: We performed a secondary analysis of a dataset of real-world falls collected from PwMS to identify patterns associated with increased fall risk. Thirty-four individuals were tracked over eight weeks with an inertial sensor comprising a triaxial accelerometer and time-of-flight radio transmitter, which communicated with beacons positioned throughout the home. We evaluated associations between locations in the home and movement behaviors prior to a fall compared with time periods when no falls occurred using metrics including gait initiation, time-spent-moving, movement length, and an entropy-based metric that quantifies movement complexity using transitions between rooms in the home. We also explored how fall risk may be related to the percent of times that a participant paused while walking (pauses-while-walking). RESULTS: Seventeen of the participants monitored sustained a total of 105 falls that were recorded. More falls occurred while walking (52%) than when stationary despite participants being largely sedentary, only walking 1.5±3.3% (median ± IQR) of the time that they were in their home. A total of 28% of falls occurred within one second of gait initiation. As the percentage of pauses-while-walking increased from 20 to 60%, the likelihood of a fall increased by nearly 3 times from 0.06 to 0.16%. Movement complexity, which was quantified using the entropy of room transitions, was significantly higher in the 10 min preceding falls compared with other 10-min time segments not preceding falls (1.15 ± 0.47 vs. 0.96 ± 0.24, P = 0.02). Path length was significantly longer (151.3 ± 156.1 m vs. 95.0 ± 157.2 m, P = 0.003) in the ten minutes preceding a fall compared with non-fall periods. Fall risk also varied among rooms but not consistently across participants. CONCLUSIONS: Movement metrics derived from wearable sensors and smart-home tracking systems are associated with fall risk in PwMS. More pauses-while-walking, and more complex, longer movement trajectories are associated with increased fall risk. FUNDING: Department of Veterans Affairs (RX001831-01A1). National Science Foundation (#2030859).

Combining uncertainty-aware predictive modeling and a bedtime Smart Snack intervention to prevent nocturnal hypoglycemia in people with type 1 diabetes on multiple daily injections.

OBJECTIVE: Nocturnal hypoglycemia is a known challenge for people with type 1 diabetes, especially for physically active individuals or those on multiple daily injections. We developed an evidential neural network (ENN) to predict at bedtime the probability and timing of nocturnal hypoglycemia (0-4 vs 4-8 h after bedtime) based on several glucose metrics and physical activity patterns. We utilized these predictions in silico to prescribe bedtime carbohydrates with a Smart Snack intervention specific to the predicted minimum nocturnal glucose and timing of nocturnal hypoglycemia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We leveraged free-living datasets collected from 366 individuals from the T1DEXI Study and Glooko. Inputs to the ENN used to model nocturnal hypoglycemia were derived from demographic information, continuous glucose monitoring, and physical activity data. We assessed the accuracy of the ENN using area under the receiver operating curve, and the clinical impact of the Smart Snack intervention through simulations. RESULTS: The ENN achieved an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.80 and 0.71 to predict nocturnal hypoglycemic events during 0-4 and 4-8 h after bedtime, respectively, outperforming all evaluated baseline methods. Use of the Smart Snack intervention reduced probability of nocturnal hypoglycemia from 23.9 ± 14.1% to 14.0 ± 13.3% and duration from 7.4 ± 7.0% to 2.4 ± 3.3% in silico. DISCUSSION: Our findings indicate that the ENN-based Smart Snack intervention has the potential to significantly reduce the frequency and duration of nocturnal hypoglycemic events. CONCLUSION: A decision support system that combines prediction of minimum nocturnal glucose and proactive recommendations for bedtime carbohydrate intake might effectively prevent nocturnal hypoglycemia and reduce the burden of glycemic self-management.

Integrating metabolic expenditure information from wearable fitness sensors into an AI-augmented automated insulin delivery system: a randomised clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Exercise can rapidly drop glucose in people with type 1 diabetes. Ubiquitous wearable fitness sensors are not integrated into automated insulin delivery (AID) systems. We hypothesised that an AID can automate insulin adjustments using real-time wearable fitness data to reduce hypoglycaemia during exercise and free-living conditions compared with an AID not automating use of fitness data. METHODS: Our study population comprised of individuals (aged 21-50 years) with type 1 diabetes from from the Harold Schnitzer Diabetes Health Center clinic at Oregon Health and Science University, OR, USA, who were enrolled into a 76 h single-centre, two-arm randomised (4-block randomisation), non-blinded crossover study to use (1) an AID that detects exercise, prompts the user, and shuts off insulin during exercise using an exercise-aware adaptive proportional derivative (exAPD) algorithm or (2) an AID that automates insulin adjustments using fitness data in real-time through an exercise-aware model predictive control (exMPC) algorithm. Both algorithms ran on iPancreas comprising commercial glucose sensors, insulin pumps, and smartwatches. Participants executed 1 week run-in on usual therapy followed by exAPD or exMPC for one 12 h primary in-clinic session involving meals, exercise, and activities of daily living, and 2 free-living out-patient days. Primary outcome was time below range (<3·9 mmol/L) during the primary in-clinic session. Secondary outcome measures included mean glucose and time in range (3·9-10 mmol/L). This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04771403. FINDINGS: Between April 13, 2021, and Oct 3, 2022, 27 participants (18 females) were enrolled into the study. There was no significant difference between exMPC (n=24) versus exAPD (n=22) in time below range (mean [SD] 1·3% [2·9] vs 2·5% [7·0]) or time in range (63·2% [23·9] vs 59·4% [23·1]) during the primary in-clinic session. In the 2 h period after start of in-clinic exercise, exMPC had significantly lower mean glucose (7·3 [1·6] vs 8·0 [1·7] mmol/L, p=0·023) and comparable time below range (1·4% [4·2] vs 4·9% [14·4]). Across the 76 h study, both algorithms achieved clinical time in range targets (71·2% [16] and 75·5% [11]) and time below range (1·0% [1·2] and 1·3% [2·2]), significantly lower than run-in period (2·4% [2·4], p=0·0004 vs exMPC; p=0·012 vs exAPD). No adverse events occurred. INTERPRETATION: AIDs can integrate exercise data from smartwatches to inform insulin dosing and limit hypoglycaemia while improving glucose outcomes. Future AID systems that integrate exercise metrics from wearable fitness sensors may help people living with type 1 diabetes exercise safely by limiting hypoglycaemia. FUNDING: JDRF Foundation and the Leona M and Harry B Helmsley Charitable Trust, National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

Predicting labor onset relative to the estimated date of delivery using smart ring physiological data.

The transition from pregnancy into parturition is physiologically directed by maternal, fetal and placental tissues. We hypothesize that these processes may be reflected in maternal physiological metrics. We enrolled pregnant participants in the third-trimester (n = 118) to study continuously worn smart ring devices monitoring heart rate, heart rate variability, skin temperature, sleep and physical activity from negative temperature coefficient, 3-D accelerometer and infrared photoplethysmography sensors. Weekly surveys assessed labor symptoms, pain, fatigue and mood. We estimated the association between each metric, gestational age, and the likelihood of a participant's labor beginning prior to (versus after) the clinical estimated delivery date (EDD) of 40.0 weeks with mixed effects regression. A boosted random forest was trained on the physiological metrics to predict pregnancies that naturally passed the EDD versus undergoing onset of labor prior to the EDD. Here we report that many raw sleep, activity, pain, fatigue and labor symptom metrics are correlated with gestational age. As gestational age advances, pregnant individuals have lower resting heart rate 0.357 beats/minute/week, 0.84 higher heart rate variability (milliseconds) and shorter durations of physical activity and sleep. Further, random forest predictions determine pregnancies that would pass the EDD with accuracy of 0.71 (area under the receiver operating curve). Self-reported symptoms of labor correlate with increased gestational age and not with the timing of labor (relative to EDD) or onset of spontaneous labor. The use of maternal smart ring-derived physiological data in the third-trimester may improve prediction of the natural duration of pregnancy relative to the EDD.

Descriptive Characterization of High-Frequency Distortion Product Otoacoustic Emission Source Components in Children.

PURPOSE: Distortion product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAEs) provide an objective assessment of cochlear function and are used for serial ototoxicity monitoring in pediatric cancer patients. DPOAEs are modeled as having distortion (near f2) and reflection (near 2f1-f2) component sources, and developmental changes are observed in these components' relative strengths in infants compared with adults. However, little is known about source component strengths in childhood or at extended high frequencies (EHFs; > 8 kHz). Thus, the purpose of this study was to describe the effects of age and stimulus frequency on DPOAE components in children. METHOD: DPOAEs were collected with varied frequency ratios (f2/f1 = 1.1-1.25) for a wide range of frequencies (2-16 kHz) in 39 younger (3-6 years) and 41 older (10-12 years) children with constant levels (L1/L2) of 65/50 dB SPL. A depth-compensated simulator sound pressure level method of calibration was employed. A time waveform representation of the results across various ratios was created to estimate peak pressures and latencies of each DPOAE component. RESULTS: Estimated peak pressures of DPOAE components revealed the greatest differences in DPOAE sources between children occurring at the highest frequencies tested, where the peak pressure of both components was largest for younger compared with older children. Latency differences between the children were only noted at higher frequencies for the distortion component. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that DPOAE levels decrease with age and reflection emissions are vulnerable to cochlear change. This work guides optimization of protocols for pediatric ototoxicity monitoring, whereby including EHF otoacoustic emissions is clearly warranted and choosing to isolate DPOAE sources may prove beneficial. SUPPLEMENTAL MATERIAL: https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.23669214.

Quantifying insulin-mediated and noninsulin-mediated changes in glucose dynamics during resistance exercise in type 1 diabetes.

Exercise can cause dangerous fluctuations in blood glucose in people living with type 1 diabetes (T1D). Aerobic exercise, for example, can cause acute hypoglycemia secondary to increased insulin-mediated and noninsulin-mediated glucose utilization. Less is known about how resistance exercise (RE) impacts glucose dynamics. Twenty-five people with T1D underwent three sessions of either moderate or high-intensity RE at three insulin infusion rates during a glucose tracer clamp. We calculated time-varying rates of endogenous glucose production (EGP) and glucose disposal (Rd) across all sessions and used linear regression and extrapolation to estimate insulin- and noninsulin-mediated components of glucose utilization. Blood glucose did not change on average during exercise. The area under the curve (AUC) for EGP increased by 1.04 mM during RE (95% CI: 0.65-1.43, P < 0.001) and decreased proportionally to insulin infusion rate (0.003 mM per percent above basal rate, 95% CI: 0.001-0.006, P = 0.003). The AUC for Rd rose by 1.26 mM during RE (95% CI: 0.41-2.10, P = 0.004) and increased proportionally with insulin infusion rate (0.04 mM per percent above basal rate, CI: 0.03-0.04, P < 0.001). No differences were observed between the moderate and high resistance groups. Noninsulin-mediated glucose utilization rose significantly during exercise before returning to baseline roughly 30-min postexercise. Insulin-mediated glucose utilization remained unchanged during exercise sessions. Circulating catecholamines and lactate rose during exercise despite relatively small changes observed in Rd. Results provide an explanation of why RE may pose a lower overall risk for hypoglycemia.NEW & NOTEWORTHY Aerobic exercise is known to cause decreases in blood glucose secondary to increased glucose utilization in people living with type 1 diabetes (T1D). However, less is known about how resistance-type exercise impacts glucose dynamics. Twenty-five participants with T1D performed in-clinic weight-bearing exercises under a glucose clamp. Mathematical modeling of infused glucose tracer allowed for quantification of the rate of hepatic glucose production as well as rates of insulin-mediated and noninsulin-mediated glucose uptake experienced during resistance exercise.

The Type 1 Diabetes and EXercise Initiative: Predicting Hypoglycemia Risk During Exercise for Participants with Type 1 Diabetes Using Repeated Measures Random Forest.

Objective: Exercise is known to increase the risk for hypoglycemia in type 1 diabetes (T1D) but predicting when it may occur remains a major challenge. The objective of this study was to develop a hypoglycemia prediction model based on a large real-world study of exercise in T1D. Research Design and Methods: Structured study-specified exercise (aerobic, interval, and resistance training videos) and free-living exercise sessions from the T1D Exercise Initiative study were used to build a model for predicting hypoglycemia, a continuous glucose monitoring value <70 mg/dL, during exercise. Repeated measures random forest (RMRF) and repeated measures logistic regression (RMLR) models were constructed to predict hypoglycemia using predictors at the start of exercise and baseline characteristics. Models were evaluated with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and balanced accuracy. Results: RMRF and RMLR had similar AUC (0.833 vs. 0.825, respectively) and both models had a balanced accuracy of 77%. The probability of hypoglycemia was higher for exercise sessions with lower pre-exercise glucose levels, negative pre-exercise glucose rates of change, greater percent time <70 mg/dL in the 24 h before exercise, and greater pre-exercise bolus insulin-on-board (IOB). Free-living aerobic exercises, walking/hiking, and physical labor had the highest probability of hypoglycemia, while structured exercises had the lowest probability of hypoglycemia. Conclusions: RMRF and RMLR accurately predict hypoglycemia during exercise and identify factors that increase the risk of hypoglycemia. Lower glucose, decreasing levels of glucose before exercise, and greater pre-exercise IOB largely predict hypoglycemia risk in adults with T1D.

Enabling fully automated insulin delivery through meal detection and size estimation using Artificial Intelligence.

We present a robust insulin delivery system that includes automated meal detection and carbohydrate content estimation using machine learning for meal insulin dosing called robust artificial pancreas (RAP). We conducted a randomized, single-center crossover trial to compare postprandial glucose control in the four hours following unannounced meals using a hybrid model predictive control (MPC) algorithm and the RAP system. The RAP system includes a neural network model to automatically detect meals and deliver a recommended meal insulin dose. The meal detection algorithm has a sensitivity of 83.3%, false discovery rate of 16.6%, and mean detection time of 25.9 minutes. While there is no significant difference in incremental area under the curve of glucose, RAP significantly reduces time above range (glucose >180 mg/dL) by 10.8% (P = 0.04) and trends toward increasing time in range (70-180 mg/dL) by 9.1% compared with MPC. Time below range (glucose <70 mg/dL) is not significantly different between RAP and MPC.

Examining the Acute Glycemic Effects of Different Types of Structured Exercise Sessions in Type 1 Diabetes in a Real-World Setting: The Type 1 Diabetes and Exercise Initiative (T1DEXI).

OBJECTIVE: Maintenance of glycemic control during and after exercise remains a major challenge for individuals with type 1 diabetes. Glycemic responses to exercise may differ by exercise type (aerobic, interval, or resistance), and the effect of activity type on glycemic control after exercise remains unclear. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The Type 1 Diabetes Exercise Initiative (T1DEXI) was a real-world study of at-home exercise. Adult participants were randomly assigned to complete six structured aerobic, interval, or resistance exercise sessions over 4 weeks. Participants self-reported study and nonstudy exercise, food intake, and insulin dosing (multiple daily injection [MDI] users) using a custom smart phone application and provided pump (pump users), heart rate, and continuous glucose monitoring data. RESULTS: A total of 497 adults with type 1 diabetes (mean age ± SD 37 ± 14 years; mean HbA1c ± SD 6.6 ± 0.8% [49 ± 8.7 mmol/mol]) assigned to structured aerobic (n = 162), interval (n = 165), or resistance (n = 170) exercise were analyzed. The mean (± SD) change in glucose during assigned exercise was -18 ± 39, -14 ± 32, and -9 ± 36 mg/dL for aerobic, interval, and resistance, respectively (P < 0.001), with similar results for closed-loop, standard pump, and MDI users. Time in range 70-180 mg/dL (3.9-10.0 mmol/L) was higher during the 24 h after study exercise when compared with days without exercise (mean ± SD 76 ± 20% vs. 70 ± 23%; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Adults with type 1 diabetes experienced the largest drop in glucose level with aerobic exercise, followed by interval and resistance exercise, regardless of insulin delivery modality. Even in adults with well-controlled type 1 diabetes, days with structured exercise sessions contributed to clinically meaningful improvement in glucose time in range but may have slightly increased time below range.

Modeling risk of hypoglycemia during and following physical activity in people with type 1 diabetes using explainable mixed-effects machine learning.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity (PA) can cause increased hypoglycemia (glucose <70 mg/dL) risk in people with type 1 diabetes (T1D). We modeled the probability of hypoglycemia during and up to 24 h following PA and identified key factors associated with hypoglycemia risk. METHODS: We leveraged a free-living dataset from Tidepool comprised of glucose measurements, insulin doses, and PA data from 50 individuals with T1D (6448 sessions) for training and validating machine learning models. We also used data from the T1Dexi pilot study that contains glucose management and PA data from 20 individuals with T1D (139 session) for assessing the accuracy of the best performing model on an independent test dataset. We used mixed-effects logistic regression (MELR) and mixed-effects random forest (MERF) to model hypoglycemia risk around PA. We identified risk factors associated with hypoglycemia using odds ratio and partial dependence analysis for the MELR and MERF models, respectively. Prediction accuracy was measured using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS: The analysis identified risk factors significantly associated with hypoglycemia during and following PA in both MELR and MERF models including glucose and body exposure to insulin at the start of PA, low blood glucose index 24 h prior to PA, and PA intensity and timing. Both models showed overall hypoglycemia risk peaking 1 h after PA and again 5-10 h after PA, which is consistent with the hypoglycemia risk pattern observed in the training dataset. Time following PA impacted hypoglycemia risk differently across different PA types. Accuracy of hypoglycemia prediction using the fixed effects of the MERF model was highest when predicting hypoglycemia during the first hour following the start of PA (AUROCVALIDATION = 0.83 and AUROCTESTING = 0.86) and decreased when predicting hypoglycemia in the 24 h after PA (AUROCVALIDATION = 0.66 and AUROCTESTING = 0.68). CONCLUSION: Hypoglycemia risk after the start of PA can be modeled using mixed-effects machine learning to identify key risk factors that may be used within decision support and insulin delivery systems. We published the population-level MERF model online for others to use.

Diabetes Technology Meeting 2022.

Diabetes Technology Society hosted its annual Diabetes Technology Meeting from November 3 to November 5, 2022. Meeting topics included (1) the measurement of glucose, insulin, and ketones; (2) virtual diabetes care; (3) metrics for managing diabetes and predicting outcomes; (4) integration of continuous glucose monitor data into the electronic health record; (5) regulation of diabetes technology; (6) digital health to nudge behavior; (7) estimating carbohydrates; (8) fully automated insulin delivery systems; (9) hypoglycemia; (10) novel insulins; (11) insulin delivery; (12) on-body sensors; (13) continuous glucose monitoring; (14) diabetic foot ulcers; (15) the environmental impact of diabetes technology; and (16) spinal cord stimulation for painful diabetic neuropathy. A live demonstration of a device that can allow for the recycling of used insulin pens was also presented.

Assessment of a Decision Support System for Adults with Type 1 Diabetes on Multiple Daily Insulin Injections.

Introduction: DailyDose is a decision support system designed to provide real-time dosing advice and weekly insulin dose adjustments for adults living with type 1 diabetes using multiple daily insulin injections. Materials and Methods: Twenty-five adults were enrolled in this single-arm study. All participants used Dexcom G6 for continuous glucose monitoring, InPen for short-acting insulin doses, and Clipsulin to track long-acting insulin doses. Participants used DailyDose on an iPhone for 8 weeks. The primary endpoint was % time in range (TIR) comparing the 2-week baseline to the final 2-week period of DailyDose use. Results: There were no significant differences between TIR or other glycemic metrics between the baseline period compared to final 2-week period of DailyDose use. TIR significantly improved by 6.3% when more than half of recommendations were accepted and followed compared with 50% or fewer recommendations (95% CI 2.5%-10.1%, P = 0.001). Conclusions: Use of DailyDose did not improve glycemic outcomes compared to the baseline period. In a post hoc analysis, accepting and following recommendations from DailyDose was associated with improved TIR. Clinical Trial Registration Number: NCT04428645.