Ambient air pollution and daily mortality in ten cities of India: a causal modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The evidence for acute effects of air pollution on mortality in India is scarce, despite the extreme concentrations of air pollution observed. This is the first multi-city study in India that examines the association between short-term exposure to PM2·5 and daily mortality using causal methods that highlight the importance of locally generated air pollution. METHODS: We applied a time-series analysis to ten cities in India between 2008 and 2019. We assessed city-wide daily PM2·5 concentrations using a novel hybrid nationwide spatiotemporal model and estimated city-specific effects of PM2·5 using a generalised additive Poisson regression model. City-specific results were then meta-analysed. We applied an instrumental variable causal approach (including planetary boundary layer height, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure) to evaluate the causal effect of locally generated air pollution on mortality. We obtained an integrated exposure-response curve through a multivariate meta-regression of the city-specific exposure-response curve and calculated the fraction of deaths attributable to air pollution concentrations exceeding the current WHO 24 h ambient PM2·5 guideline of 15 µg/m3. To explore the shape of the exposure-response curve at lower exposures, we further limited the analyses to days with concentrations lower than the current Indian standard (60 µg/m3). FINDINGS: We observed that a 10 µg/m3 increase in 2-day moving average of PM2·5 was associated with 1·4% (95% CI 0·7-2·2) higher daily mortality. In our causal instrumental variable analyses representing the effect of locally generated air pollution, we observed a stronger association with daily mortality (3·6% [2·1-5·0]) than our overall estimate. Our integrated exposure-response curve suggested steeper slopes at lower levels of exposure and an attenuation of the slope at high exposure levels. We observed two times higher risk of death per 10 µg/m3 increase when restricting our analyses to observations below the Indian air quality standard (2·7% [1·7-3·6]). Using the integrated exposure-response curve, we observed that 7·2% (4·2%-10·1%) of all daily deaths were attributed to PM2·5 concentrations higher than the WHO guidelines. INTERPRETATION: Short-term PM2·5 exposure was associated with a high risk of death in India, even at concentrations well below the current Indian PM2·5 standard. These associations were stronger for locally generated air pollutants quantified through causal modelling methods than conventional time-series analysis, further supporting a plausible causal link. FUNDING: Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development.

Nationwide estimation of daily ambient PM2.5 from 2008 to 2020 at 1 km2 in India using an ensemble approach.

High-resolution assessment of historical levels is essential for assessing the health effects of ambient air pollution in the large Indian population. The diversity of geography, weather patterns, and progressive urbanization, combined with a sparse ground monitoring network makes it challenging to accurately capture the spatiotemporal patterns of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in India. We developed a model for daily average ambient PM2.5 between 2008 and 2020 based on monitoring data, meteorology, land use, satellite observations, and emissions inventories. Daily average predictions at each 1 km × 1 km grid from each learner were ensembled using a Gaussian process regression with anisotropic smoothing over spatial coordinates, and regression calibration was used to account for exposure error. Cross-validating by leaving monitors out, the ensemble model had an R2 of 0.86 at the daily level in the validation data and outperformed each component learner (by 5-18%). Annual average levels in different zones ranged between 39.7 µg/m3 (interquartile range: 29.8-46.8) in 2008 and 30.4 µg/m3 (interquartile range: 22.7-37.2) in 2020, with a cross-validated (CV)-R2 of 0.94 at the annual level. Overall mean absolute daily errors (MAE) across the 13 years were between 14.4 and 25.4 µg/m3. We obtained high spatial accuracy with spatial R2 greater than 90% and spatial MAE ranging between 7.3-16.5 µg/m3 with relatively better performance in urban areas at low and moderate elevation. We have developed an important validated resource for studying PM2.5 at a very fine spatiotemporal resolution, which allows us to study the health effects of PM2.5 across India and to identify areas with exceedingly high levels.

Impact of heatwaves on all-cause mortality in India: A comprehensive multi-city study.

BACKGROUND: Heatwaves are expected to increase with climate change, posing a significant threat to population health. In India, with the world's largest population, heatwaves occur annually but have not been comprehensively studied. Accordingly, we evaluated the association between heatwaves and all-cause mortality and quantifying the attributable mortality fraction in India. METHODS: We obtained all-cause mortality counts for ten cities in India (2008-2019) and estimated daily mean temperatures from satellite data. Our main extreme heatwave was defined as two-consecutive days with an intensity above the 97th annual percentile. We estimated city-specific heatwave associations through generalised additive Poisson regression models, and meta-analysed the associations. We reported effects as the percentage change in daily mortality, with 95% confidence intervals (CI), comparing heatwave vs non-heatwave days. We further evaluated heatwaves using different percentiles (95th, 97th, 99th) for one, two, three and five-consecutive days. We also evaluated the influence of heatwave duration, intensity and timing in the summer season on heatwave mortality, and estimated the number of heatwave-related deaths. FINDINGS: Among âˆ¼ 3.6 million deaths, we observed that temperatures above 97th percentile for 2-consecutive days was associated with a 14.7 % (95 %CI, 10.3; 19.3) increase in daily mortality. Alternative heatwave definitions with higher percentiles and longer duration resulted in stronger relative risks. Furthermore, we observed stronger associations between heatwaves and mortality with higher heatwave intensity. We estimated that around 1116 deaths annually (95 %CI, 861; 1361) were attributed to heatwaves. Shorter and less intense definitions of heatwaves resulted in a higher estimated burden of heatwave-related deaths. CONCLUSIONS: We found strong evidence of heatwave impacts on daily mortality. Longer and more intense heatwaves were linked to an increased mortality risk, however, resulted in a lower burden of heatwave-related deaths. Both definitions and the burden associated with each heatwave definition should be incorporated into planning and decision-making processes for policymakers.

PM2.5 exposure, glycemic markers and incidence of type 2 diabetes in two large Indian cities.

INTRODUCTION: Exposure to fine particulate matter has been associated with several cardiovascular and cardiometabolic diseases. However, such evidence mostly originates from low-pollution settings or cross-sectional studies, thus necessitating evidence from regions with high air pollution levels, such as India, where the burden of non-communicable diseases is high. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We studied the associations between ambient PM2.5 levels and fasting plasma glucose (FPG), glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among 12 064 participants in an adult cohort from urban Chennai and Delhi, India. A meta-analytic approach was used to combine estimates, obtained from mixed-effects models and proportional hazards models, from the two cities. RESULTS: We observed that 10 µg/m3 differences in monthly average exposure to PM2.5 was associated with a 0.40 mg/dL increase in FPG (95% CI 0.22 to 0.58) and 0.021 unit increase in HbA1c (95% CI 0.009 to 0.032). Further, 10 µg/m3 differences in annual average PM2.5 was associated with 1.22 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.36) times increased risk of incident T2DM, with non-linear exposure response. CONCLUSIONS: We observed evidence of temporal association between PM2.5 exposure, and higher FPG and incident T2DM in two urban environments in India, thus highlighting the potential for population-based mitigation policies to reduce the growing burden of diabetes.

Ambient air pollution and cardiovascular diseases: An umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

The available evidence on the effects of ambient air pollution on cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) has increased substantially. In this umbrella review, we summarized the current epidemiological evidence from systematic reviews and meta-analyses linking ambient air pollution and CVDs, with a focus on geographical differences and vulnerable subpopulations. We performed a search strategy through multiple databases including articles between 2010 and 31 January 2021. We performed a quality assessment and evaluated the strength of evidence. Of the 56 included reviews, the most studied outcomes were stroke (22 reviews), all-cause CVD mortality, and morbidity (19). The strongest evidence was found between higher short- and long-term ambient air pollution exposure and all-cause CVD mortality and morbidity, stroke, blood pressure, and ischemic heart diseases (IHD). Short-term exposures to particulate matter <2.5 µm (PM2.5 ), <10 µm (PM10 ), and nitrogen oxides (NOx ) were consistently associated with increased risks of hypertension and triggering of myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke (fatal and nonfatal). Long-term exposures of PM2.5 were largely associated with increased risk of atherosclerosis, incident MI, hypertension, and incident stroke and stroke mortality. Few reviews evaluated other CVD outcomes including arrhythmias, atrial fibrillation, or heart failure but they generally reported positive statistical associations. Stronger associations were found in Asian countries and vulnerable subpopulations, especially among the elderly, cardiac patients, and people with higher weight status. Consistent with experimental data, this comprehensive umbrella review found strong evidence that higher levels of ambient air pollution increase the risk of CVDs, especially all-cause CVD mortality, stroke, and IHD. These results emphasize the importance of reducing the alarming levels of air pollution across the globe, especially in Asia, and among vulnerable subpopulations.

Patient experiences and perceptions of chronic disease care during the COVID-19 pandemic in India: a qualitative study.

OBJECTIVE: People with chronic conditions are known to be vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to describe patients' lived experiences, challenges faced by people with chronic conditions, their coping strategies, and the social and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We conducted a qualitative study using a syndemic framework to understand the patients' experiences of chronic disease care, challenges faced during the lockdown, their coping strategies and mitigators during the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of socioecological and biological factors. A diverse sample of 41 participants with chronic conditions (hypertension, diabetes, stroke and cardiovascular diseases) from four sites (Delhi, Haryana, Vizag and Chennai) in India participated in semistructured interviews. All interviews were audio recorded, transcribed, translated, anonymised and coded using MAXQDA software. We used the framework method to qualitatively analyse the COVID-19 pandemic impacts on health, social and economic well-being. RESULTS: Participant experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic were categorised into four themes: challenges faced during the lockdown, experiences of the participants diagnosed with COVID-19, preventive measures taken and lessons learnt during the COVID-19 pandemic. A subgroup of participants faced difficulties in accessing healthcare while a few reported using teleconsultations. Most participants reported adverse economic impact of the pandemic which led to higher reporting of anxiety and stress. Participants who tested COVID-19 positive reported experiencing discrimination and stigma from neighbours. All participants reported taking essential preventive measures. CONCLUSION: People with chronic conditions experienced a confluence (reciprocal effect) of COVID-19 pandemic and chronic diseases in the context of difficulty in accessing healthcare, sedentary lifestyle and increased stress and anxiety. Patients' lived experiences during the pandemic provide important insights to inform effective transition to a mixed realm of online consultations and 'distanced' physical clinic visits.

Health, psychosocial, and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on people with chronic conditions in India: a mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND: People with chronic conditions are disproportionately prone to be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic but there are limited data documenting this. We aimed to assess the health, psychosocial and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on people with chronic conditions in India. METHODS: Between July 29, to September 12, 2020, we telephonically surveyed adults (n = 2335) with chronic conditions across four sites in India. Data on participants' demographic, socio-economic status, comorbidities, access to health care, treatment satisfaction, self-care behaviors, employment, and income were collected using pre-tested questionnaires. We performed multivariable logistic regression analysis to examine the factors associated with difficulty in accessing medicines and worsening of diabetes or hypertension symptoms. Further, a diverse sample of 40 participants completed qualitative interviews that focused on eliciting patient's experiences during the COVID-19 lockdowns and data analyzed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: One thousand seven hundred thirty-four individuals completed the survey (response rate = 74%). The mean (SD) age of respondents was 57.8 years (11.3) and 50% were men. During the COVID-19 lockdowns in India, 83% of participants reported difficulty in accessing healthcare, 17% faced difficulties in accessing medicines, 59% reported loss of income, 38% lost jobs, and 28% reduced fruit and vegetable consumption. In the final-adjusted regression model, rural residence (OR, 95%CI: 4.01,2.90-5.53), having diabetes (2.42, 1.81-3.25) and hypertension (1.70,1.27-2.27), and loss of income (2.30,1.62-3.26) were significantly associated with difficulty in accessing medicines. Further, difficulties in accessing medicines (3.67,2.52-5.35), and job loss (1.90,1.25-2.89) were associated with worsening of diabetes or hypertension symptoms. Qualitative data suggest most participants experienced psychosocial distress due to loss of job or income and had difficulties in accessing in-patient services. CONCLUSION: People with chronic conditions, particularly among poor, rural, and marginalized populations, have experienced difficulties in accessing healthcare and been severely affected both socially and financially by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Building capacity for air pollution epidemiology in India.

Air pollution represents a major public health threat in India affecting 19% of the world's population at extreme levels. Despite this, research in India lags behind in large part due to a lack of comprehensive air pollution exposure assessment that can be used in conjunction with health data to investigate health effects. Our vision is to provide a consortium to rapidly expand the evidence base of the multiple effects of ambient air pollution. We intend to leapfrog current limitations of exposure assessment by developing a machine-learned satellite-informed spatiotemporal model to estimate daily levels of ambient fine particulate matter measuring less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) at a fine spatial scale across all of India. To catalyze health effects research on an unprecedented scale, we will make the output from this model publicly available. In addition, we will also apply these PM2.5 estimates to study the health outcomes of greatest public health importance in India, including cardiovascular diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pregnancy (and birth) outcomes, and cognitive development and/or decline. Thus, our efforts will directly generate actionable new evidence on the myriad effects of air pollution on health that can inform policy decisions, while providing a comprehensive and publicly available resource for future studies on both exposure and health effects. In this commentary, we discuss the motivation, rationale, and vision for our consortium and a path forward for reducing the enormous burden of disease from air pollution in India.

Investigating discharge communication for chronic disease patients in three hospitals in India.

OBJECTIVES: Poor discharge communication is associated with negative health outcomes in high-income countries. However, quality of discharge communication has received little attention in India and many other low and middle-income countries. PRIMARY OBJECTIVE: To investigate verbal and documented discharge communication for chronic non-communicable disease (NCD) patients. SECONDARY OBJECTIVE: To explore the relationship between quality of discharge communication and health outcomes. DESIGN: Prospective study. SETTING: Three public hospitals in Himachal Pradesh and Kerala states, India. PARTICIPANTS: 546 chronic NCD (chronic respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease or diabetes) patients. Piloted questionnaires were completed at admission, discharge and five and eighteen-week follow-up covering health status, discharge communication practices and health-seeking behaviour. Logistic regression was used to explore the relationship between quality of discharge communication and health outcomes. PRIMARY: Patient recall and experiences of verbal and documented discharge communication. SECONDARY: Death, hospital readmission and self-reported deterioration of NCD/s. RESULTS: All patients received discharge notes, predominantly on sheets of paper with basic pre-printed headings (71%) or no structure (19%); 31% of notes contained all the following information required for facilitating continuity of care: diagnosis, medication information, lifestyle advice, and follow-up instructions. Patient reports indicated notable variations in verbal information provided during discharge consultations; 50% received ongoing treatment/management information and 23% received lifestyle advice. Within 18 weeks of follow-up, 25 (5%) patients had died, 69 (13%) had been readmitted and 62 (11%) reported that their chronic NCD/s had deteriorated. Significant associations were found between low-quality documented discharge communication and death (AOR = 3.00; 95% CI 1.27,7.06) and low-quality verbal discharge communication and self-reported deterioration of chronic NCD/s (AOR = 0.46; 95% CI 0.25,0.83) within 18-weeks of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Sub-optimal discharge practices may be compromising continuity and safety of chronic NCD patient care. Structured protocols, documents and training are required to improve discharge communication, healthcare integration and NCD management.

Leveraging Existing Cohorts to Study Health Effects of Air Pollution on Cardiometabolic Disorders: India Global Environmental and Occupational Health Hub.

Air pollution is a growing public health concern in developing countries and poses a huge epidemiological burden. Despite the growing awareness of ill effects of air pollution, the evidence linking air pollution and health effects is sparse. This requires environmental exposure scientist and public health researchers to work more cohesively to generate evidence on health impacts of air pollution in developing countries for policy advocacy. In the Global Environmental and Occupational Health (GEOHealth) Program, we aim to build exposure assessment model to estimate ambient air pollution exposure at a very fine resolution which can be linked with health outcomes leveraging well-phenotyped cohorts which have information on geolocation of households of study participants. We aim to address how air pollution interacts with meteorological and weather parameters and other aspects of the urban environment, occupational classification, and socioeconomic status, to affect cardiometabolic risk factors and disease outcomes. This will help us generate evidence for cardiovascular health impacts of ambient air pollution in India needed for necessary policy advocacy. The other exploratory aims are to explore mediatory role of the epigenetic mechanisms (DNA methylation) and vitamin D exposure in determining the association between air pollution exposure and cardiovascular health outcomes. Other components of the GEOHealth program include building capacity and strengthening the skills of public health researchers in India through variety of training programs and international collaborations. This will help generate research capacity to address environmental and occupational health research questions in India. The expertise that we bring together in GEOHealth hub are public health, clinical epidemiology, environmental exposure science, statistical modeling, and policy advocacy.

Patient and healthcare provider knowledge, attitudes and barriers to handover and healthcare communication during chronic disease inpatient care in India: a qualitative exploratory study.

OBJECTIVES: 1) To investigate patient and healthcare provider (HCP) knowledge, attitudes and barriers to handover and healthcare communication during inpatient care. 2) To explore potential interventions for improving the storage and transfer of healthcare information. DESIGN: Qualitative study comprising 41 semi-structured, individual interviews and a thematic analysis using the Framework Method with analyst triangulation. SETTING: Three public hospitals in Himachal Pradesh and Kerala, India. PARTICIPANTS: Participants included 20 male (n=10) and female (n=10) patients with chronic non-communicable disease (NCD) and 21 male (n=15) and female (n=6) HCPs. Purposive sampling was used to identify patients with chronic NCDs (cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease, diabetes or hypertension) and HCPs. RESULTS: Patient themes were (1) public healthcare service characteristics, (2) HCP to patient communication and (3) attitudes regarding medical information. HCP themes were (1) system factors, (2) information exchange practices and (3) quality improvement strategies. Both patients and HCPs recognised public healthcare constraints that increased pressure on hospitals and subsequently limited consultation times. Systemic issues reported by HCPs were a lack of formal handover systems, training and accessible hospital-based records. Healthcare management communication during admission was inconsistent and lacked patient-centredness, evidenced by varying reports of patient information received and some dissatisfaction with lifestyle advice. HCPs reported that the duty of writing discharge notes was passed from senior doctors to interns or nurses during busy periods. A nurse reported providing predominantly verbal discharge instructions to patients. Patient-held medical documents facilitated information exchange between HCPs, but doctors reported that they were not always transported. HCPs and patients expressed positive views towards the idea of introducing patient-held booklets to improve the organisation and transfer of medical documents. CONCLUSIONS: Handover and healthcare communication during chronic NCD inpatient care is currently suboptimal. Structured information exchange systems and HCP training are required to improve continuity and safety of care during critical transitions such as referral and discharge. Our findings suggest that patient-held booklets may also assist in enhancing handover and patient-centred practices.

Association of Long-Term Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter and Cardio-Metabolic Diseases in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review.

: Background: Numerous epidemiological studies indicated high levels of particulate matter less than2.5 µm diameter (PM2.5) as a major cardiovascular risk factor. Most of the studies have been conducted in high-income countries (HICs), where average levels of PM2.5 are far less compared to low- and middle- income countries (LMICs), and their socio-economic profile, disease burden, and PM speciation/composition are very different. We systematically reviewed the association of long-term exposure to PM2.5 and cardio-metabolic diseases (CMDs) in LMICs. METHODS: Multiple databases were searched for English articles with date limits until March 2018. We included studies investigating the association of long-term exposure to PM2.5 (defined as an annual average/average measure for 3 more days of PM2.5 exposure) and CMDs, such as hospital admissions, prevalence, and deaths due to CMDs, conducted in LMICs as defined by World Bank. We excluded studies which employed exposure proxy measures, studies among specific occupational groups, and specific episodes of air pollution. RESULTS: A total of 5567 unique articles were identified, of which only 17 articles were included for final review, and these studies were from Brazil, Bulgaria, China, India, and Mexico. Outcome assessed were hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus and insulin resistance, and cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related emergency room visits/admissions, death, and mortality. Largely a positive association between exposure to PM2.5 and CMDs was found, and CVD mortality with effect estimates ranging from 0.24% to 6.11% increased per 10 µg/m3 in PM2.5. CVD-related hospitalizations and emergency room visits increased by 0.3% to 19.6%. Risk factors like hypertension had an odds ratio of 1.14, and type 2 diabetes mellitus had an odds ratio ranging from 1.14-1.32. Diversity of exposure assessment and health outcomes limited the ability to perform a meta-analysis. CONCLUSION: Limited evidence on the association of long-term exposure to PM2.5 and CMDs in the LMICs context warrants cohort studies to establish the association.

Investigating clinical handover and healthcare communication for outpatients with chronic disease in India: A mixed-methods study.

OBJECTIVES: Research concentrating on continuity of care for chronic, non-communicable disease (NCD) patients in resource-constrained settings is currently limited and focusses on inpatients. Outpatient care requires attention as this is where NCD patients often seek treatment and optimal handover of information is essential. We investigated handover, healthcare communication and barriers to continuity of care for chronic NCD outpatients in India. We also explored potential interventions for improving storage and exchange of healthcare information. METHODS: A mixed-methods design was used across five healthcare facilities in Kerala and Himachal Pradesh states. Questionnaires from 513 outpatients with cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease, or diabetes covered the form and comprehensiveness of information exchange between healthcare professionals (HCPs) and between HCPs and patients. Semi-structured interviews with outpatients and HCPs explored handover, healthcare communication and intervention ideas. Barriers to continuity of care were identified through triangulation of all data sources. RESULTS: Almost half (46%) of patients self-referred to hospital outpatient clinics (OPCs). Patient-held healthcare information was often poorly recorded on unstructured sheets of paper; 24% of OPC documents contained the following: diagnosis, medication, long-term care and follow-up information. Just 55% of patients recalled receiving verbal follow-up and medication instructions during OPC appointments. Qualitative themes included patient preference for hospital visits, system factors, inconsistent doctor-patient communication and attitudes towards medical documents. Barriers were hospital time constraints, inconsistent referral practices and absences of OPC medical record-keeping, structured patient-held medical documents and clinical handover training. Patients and HCPs were in favour of the introduction of patient-held booklets for storing and transporting medical documents. CONCLUSIONS: Deficiencies in communicative practices are compromising the continuity of chronic NCD outpatient care. Targeted systems-based interventions are urgently required to improve information provision and exchange. Our findings indicate that well-designed patient-held booklets are likely to be an acceptable, affordable and effective part of the solution.