Impact of reduction of susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 on epidemic dynamics in four early-seeded metropolitan regions.

As we enter a chronic phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, with uncontrolled infection rates in many places, relative regional susceptibilities are a critical unknown for policy planning. Tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection or antibodies are indicative but unreliable measures of exposure. Here instead, for four highly-affected countries, we determine population susceptibilities by directly comparing country-wide observed epidemic dynamics data with that of their main metropolitan regions. We find significant susceptibility reductions in the metropolitan regions as a result of earlier seeding, with a relatively longer phase of exponential growth before the introduction of public health interventions. During the post-growth phase, the lower susceptibility of these regions contributed to the decline in cases, independent of intervention effects. Forward projections indicate that non-metropolitan regions will be more affected during recurrent epidemic waves compared with the initially heavier-hit metropolitan regions. Our findings have consequences for disease forecasts and resource utilisation.

Improving the Detection Limit in a Capillary Raman System for In Situ Gas Analysis by Means of Fluorescence Reduction.

Raman spectroscopy for low-pressure or trace gas analysis is rather challenging, in particular in process control applications requiring trace detection and real-time response; in general, enhancement techniques are required. One possible enhancement approach which enjoys increasing popularity makes use of an internally-reflective capillary as the gas cell. However, in the majority of cases, such capillary systems were often limited in their achievable sensitivity by a significant fluorescence background, which is generated as a consequence of interactions between the laser light and optical glass components in the setup. In order to understand and counteract these problems we have investigated a range of fluorescence-reducing measures, including the rearrangement of optical elements, and the replacement of glass components--including the capillary itself--by metal alternatives. These studies now have led to a capillary setup in which fluorescence is practically eliminated and substantial signal enhancement over standard Raman setups is achieved. With this improved (prototype) setup, detection limits of well below 1 mbar could be obtained in sub-second acquisition times, demonstrating the potential of capillary Raman spectroscopy for real-time, in situ gas sensing and process control applications, down to trace level concentrations.

Relative Intensity Correction of Raman Systems with National Institute of Standards and Technology Standard Reference Material 2242 in 90°-Scattering Geometry.

The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has certified a set of Standard Reference Materials (SRMs) that can be used to accurately determine the spectral sensitivity of Raman spectrometers. These solid-state reference sources offer benefits such as exact reproduction of Raman sampling geometry, simple implementation, and long-term stability. However, a serious drawback of these SRMs is that they are certified only in the backscattering (180°) configuration. In this study, we investigated if and how SRM 2242 (applicable for 532 nm) can be employed in a 90°-scattering geometry Raman system. We found that the measurement procedure needs to be modified to comply with the certified uncertainty provided by NIST. This requires a change in the SRM illumination that is possible only if we polish the side surfaces. In addition, we need to account for the polarization configuration of the Raman system by choosing the appropriate polarization of the excitation beam. On top of that, the spatial inhomogeneity of the luminescence light needs to be taken into account, as well as its behavior while traveling through the SRM bulk. Finally, we show in a round-robin test that the resulting uncertainty for the quantification of Raman spectra using the modified technique is on the order of ±1.5 percentage points.

Automated quantitative spectroscopic analysis combining background subtraction, cosmic ray removal, and peak fitting.

An integrated concept for post-acquisition spectrum analysis was developed for in-line (real-time) and off-line applications that preserves absolute spectral quantification; after the initializing parameter setup, only minimal user intervention is required. This spectral evaluation suite is composed of a sequence of tasks specifically addressing cosmic ray removal, background subtraction, and peak analysis and fitting, together with the treatment of two-dimensional charge-coupled device array data. One may use any of the individual steps on their own, or may exclude steps from the chain if so desired. For the background treatment, the canonical rolling-circle filter (RCF) algorithm was adopted, but it was coupled with a Savitzky-Golay filtering step on the locus-array generated from a single RCF pass. This novel only-two-parameter procedure vastly improves on the RCF's deficiency to overestimate the baseline level in spectra with broad peak features. The peak analysis routine developed here is an only-two-parameter (amplitude and position) fitting algorithm that relies on numerical line shape profiles rather than on analytical functions. The overall analysis chain was programmed in National Instrument's LabVIEW; this software allows for easy incorporation of this spectrum analysis suite into any LabVIEW-managed instrument control, data-acquisition environment, or both. The strength of the individual tasks and the integrated program sequence are demonstrated for the analysis of a wide range of (although not necessarily limited to) Raman spectra of varying complexity and exhibiting nonanalytical line profiles. In comparison to other analysis algorithms and functions, our new approach for background subtraction, peak analysis, and fitting returned vastly improved quantitative results, even for "hidden" details in the spectra, in particular, for nonanalytical line profiles. All software is available for download.