Incidence and prevalence of hepatitis C and B infections among men who have sex with men and transgender women enrolled in a United States HIV vaccine trial.

Background: Rising hepatitis C and B virus (HCV and HBV) rates have been reported in men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW). This study characterizes HCV and HBV infections longitudinally among 2,496 MSM/TGW aged 18-50 years and at risk for HIV acquisition enrolled in an HIV-1 vaccine trial in 18 U.S. cities between 2009-2013. Methods: Participants completed behavioral surveys, HIV testing, and blood collection over 24 months. Of the 2,397 participants who consented for future testing, 1,792 (74.8%) had available paired stored blood samples at baseline and a later timepoint (Month 24 [N = 999]; if unavailable, M12 [N = 775] or M15 [N = 18]). Results: Among 1,792 participants, 98.1% were MSM, 0.8% were TGW, and the median age was 30 years (IQR 24, 40). Participants reported a median number of 3 male sex partners (IQR 1,5) within the past 3 months. Condomless insertive anal sex was reported by 55.8% and condomless receptive anal sex by 46.7%.1.3% reported injection drug use. During follow-up, 1.4% reported pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use. At baseline 11/1792 (0.61%) participants had HCV infection (HCV AB positive, RNA detectable), with all having persistent detectable RNA and chronic HCV infection at follow-up. Phylogenetic analysis showed no clusters of HCV infection. 8 participants had HCV AB positive, RNA undetectable at baseline and follow-up, representing past HCV infection with clearance; only 2 acquired HCV, which cleared over 12-24 months. At baseline, 2 participants (2/1792 = 0.11%) had positive HBsAg, indicating chronic HBV infection. Over 12-24 months, 4 (4/1790, 0.22%) developed HBsAg positivity; these participants had HBcAB positivity at baseline, thereby likely representing reactivation. There were no new HBV infections during follow-up. Conclusion: Among 1,792 men who have sex with men and transgender women aged 18-50 years and at risk for HIV acquisition enrolled in a U.S. HIV-1 vaccine trial, incident hepatitis C infection rates were extremely low, with no cases of incident hepatitis B infection. These rates of incident HCV infection and HBSAg positivity are lower than previously reported among MSM/TGW.

Is HIV epidemic control by 2030 realistic?

Rates of new HIV acquisition remain unacceptably high in most populations in low-income, middle-income, and high-income settings despite advances in treatment and prevention strategies. Although biomedical advances in primary prevention of new infections exist, systematic scale-up of these interventions has not occurred at the pace required to end AIDS by 2030. Low population coverage, adherence to oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in settings with high rates of HIV acquisition, and the fact that a significant proportion of new HIV infections occurs in populations not identified as high risk and are hence not targeted for prevention approaches impedes current prevention strategies. Although long-acting injectables and monoclonal antibodies are promising approaches to help reduce incidence, high cost and the need for high coverage rates mean that a vaccine or vaccine-like intervention still remains the most likely scenario to produce a population-level impact on HIV incidence, especially in countries with generalised epidemics. Current global efforts are not sufficient to meet 2030 HIV epidemic goals; acknowledgment of this issue is required to ensure persistent advocacy for population-based control of the ongoing HIV pandemic.

Statistical design and analysis of controlled human malaria infection trials.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a potentially life-threatening disease caused by Plasmodium protozoa transmitted by infected Anopheles mosquitoes. Controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) trials are used to assess the efficacy of interventions for malaria elimination. The operating characteristics of statistical methods for assessing the ability of interventions to protect individuals from malaria is uncertain in small CHMI studies. This paper presents simulation studies comparing the performance of a variety of statistical methods for assessing efficacy of intervention in CHMI trials. METHODS: Two types of CHMI designs were investigated: the commonly used single high-dose design (SHD) and the repeated low-dose design (RLD), motivated by simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) challenge studies. In the context of SHD, the primary efficacy endpoint is typically time to infection. Using a continuous time survival model, five statistical tests for assessing the extent to which an intervention confers partial or full protection under single dose CHMI designs were evaluated. For RLD, the primary efficacy endpoint is typically the binary infection status after a specific number of challenges. A discrete time survival model was used to study the characteristics of RLD versus SHD challenge studies. RESULTS: In a SHD study with the continuous time survival model, log-rank test and t-test are the most powerful and provide more interpretable results than Wilcoxon rank-sum tests and Lachenbruch tests, while the likelihood ratio test is uniformly most powerful but requires knowledge of the underlying probability model. In the discrete time survival model setting, SHDs are more powerful for assessing the efficacy of an intervention to prevent infection than RLDs. However, additional information can be inferred from RLD challenge designs, particularly using a likelihood ratio test. CONCLUSIONS: Different statistical methods can be used to analyze controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) experiments, and the choice of method depends on the specific characteristics of the experiment, such as the sample size allocation between the control and intervention groups, and the nature of the intervention. The simulation results provide guidance for the trade off in statistical power when choosing between different statistical methods and study designs.

Descriptive, Hospital-Based, 10-Year Study of Malaria Transmission in Goa, a Southwest Indian State in the Malaria Elimination Phase.

The South Asia International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research, an NIH-funded collaborative program, investigated the epidemiology of malaria in the Indian state of Goa through health facility-based data collected from the Goa Medical College and Hospital (GMC), the state's largest tertiary healthcare facility, between 2012 and 2021. Our study investigated region-specific spatial and temporal patterns of malaria transmission in Goa and the factors driving such patterns. Over the past decade, the number of malaria cases, inpatients, and deaths at the GMC decreased significantly after a peak in 2014-2015. However, the proportion of severe malaria cases increased over the study period. Also, a trend of decreasing average parasitemia and increasing average gametocyte density suggests a shift toward submicroscopic infections and an increase in transmission commitment characteristic of low-transmission regions. Although transmission occurred throughout the year, 75% of the cases occurred between June and December, overlapping with the monsoon (June-October), which featured rainfall above yearly average, minimal diurnal temperature variation, and high relative humidity. Sociodemographic factors also had a significant association with malaria cases, with cases being more frequent in the 15-50-year-old age group, men, construction workers, and people living in urban areas within the GMC catchment region. Our environmental model of malaria transmission projects almost negligible transmission at the beginning of 2025 (annual parasitic index: 0.0095, 95% CI: 0.0075-0.0114) if the current control measures continue undisrupted.

HIV BG505 SOSIP.664 trimer with 3M-052-AF/alum induces human autologous tier-2 neutralizing antibodies.

Stabilized trimers preserving the native-like HIV envelope structure may be key components of a preventive HIV vaccine regimen to induce broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs). We evaluated trimeric BG505 SOSIP.664 gp140, formulated with a novel TLR7/8 signaling adjuvant, 3M-052-AF/Alum, for safety, adjuvant dose-finding and immunogenicity in a first-in-healthy adult (n=17), randomized, placebo-controlled trial (HVTN 137A). The vaccine regimen appeared safe. Robust, trimer-specific antibody, B-cell and CD4+ T-cell responses emerged post-vaccination. Five vaccinees developed serum autologous tier-2 nAbs (ID50 titer, 1:28-1:8647) after 2-3 doses targeting C3/V5 and/or V1/V2/V3 Env regions by electron microscopy and mutated pseudovirus-based neutralization analyses. Trimer-specific, B-cell-derived monoclonal antibody activities confirmed these results and showed weak heterologous neutralization in the strongest responder. Our findings demonstrate the clinical utility of the 3M-052-AF/alum adjuvant and support further improvements of trimer-based Env immunogens to focus responses on multiple broad nAb epitopes. KEY TAKEAWAY/TAKE-HOME MESSAGES: HIV BG505 SOSIP.664 trimer with novel 3M-052-AF/alum adjuvant in humans appears safe and induces serum neutralizing antibodies to matched clade A, tier 2 virus, that map to diverse Env epitopes with relatively high titers. The novel adjuvant may be an important mediator of vaccine response.

Factors associated with reactogenicity to an investigational HIV vaccine regimen in HIV vaccine trials network 702.

BACKGROUND: Reactogenicity informs vaccine safety, and may influence vaccine uptake. We evaluated factors associated with reactogenicity in HVTN 702, a typical HIV vaccine efficacy trial with multiple doses and products. METHODS: HVTN 702, a phase 2b/3 double-blind placebo-controlled trial, randomized 5404 African participants aged 18-35 years without HIV to placebo, or ALVAC-HIV (vCP2438) at months 0, 1 and ALVAC-HIV (vCP2438) + Bivalent Subtype C gp120/MF59 at months 3, 6, 12 and 18. Using multivariate logistic regression, we evaluated associations between reactogenicity with clinical, sociodemographic and laboratory variables. RESULTS: More vaccine than placebo-recipients reported local symptoms (all p < 0.001), arthralgia (p = 0.008), chills (p = 0.012) and myalgia (p < 0.001). Reactogenicity was associated with female sex at birth (ORv = 2.50, ORp = 1.81, both p < 0.001) and geographic region. Amongst vaccine-recipients, each year of age was associated with 3 % increase in reactogenicity (OR = 1.03, p = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Vaccine receipt, female sex at birth, older age, and region may affect reactogenicity.

SARS-CoV-2 Viral Load in the Nasopharynx at Time of First Infection Among Unvaccinated Individuals: A Secondary Cross-Protocol Analysis of 4 Randomized Trials.

Importance: SARS-CoV-2 viral load (VL) in the nasopharynx is difficult to quantify and standardize across settings, but it may inform transmission potential and disease severity. Objective: To characterize VL at COVID-19 diagnosis among previously uninfected and unvaccinated individuals by evaluating the association of demographic and clinical characteristics, viral variant, and trial with VL, as well as the ability of VL to predict severe disease. Design, Setting, and Participants: This secondary cross-protocol analysis used individual-level data from placebo recipients from 4 harmonized, phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine efficacy trials sponsored by Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax. Participants were SARS-CoV-2 negative at baseline and acquired COVID-19 during the blinded phase of the trials. The setting included the US, Brazil, South Africa, Colombia, Argentina, Peru, Chile, and Mexico; start dates were July 27, 2020, to December 27, 2020; data cutoff dates were March 26, 2021, to July 30, 2021. Statistical analysis was performed from November 2022 to June 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Linear regression was used to assess the association of demographic and clinical characteristics, viral variant, and trial with polymerase chain reaction-measured log10 VL in nasal and/or nasopharyngeal swabs taken at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis. Results: Among 1667 participants studied (886 [53.1%] male; 995 [59.7%] enrolled in the US; mean [SD] age, 46.7 [14.7] years; 204 [12.2%] aged 65 years or older; 196 [11.8%] American Indian or Alaska Native, 150 [9%] Black or African American, 1112 [66.7%] White; 762 [45.7%] Hispanic or Latino), median (IQR) log10 VL at diagnosis was 6.18 (4.66-7.12) log10 copies/mL. Participant characteristics and viral variant explained only 5.9% of the variability in VL. The independent factor with the highest observed differences was trial: Janssen participants had 0.54 log10 copies/mL lower mean VL vs Moderna participants (95% CI, 0.20 to 0.87 log10 copies/mL lower). In the Janssen study, which captured the largest number of COVID-19 events and variants and used the most intensive post-COVID surveillance, neither VL at diagnosis nor averaged over days 1 to 28 post diagnosis was associated with COVID-19 severity. Conclusions and Relevance: In this study of placebo recipients from 4 randomized phase 3 trials, high variability was observed in SARS-CoV-2 VL at the time of COVID-19 diagnosis, and only a fraction was explained by individual participant characteristics or viral variant. These results suggest challenges for future studies of interventions seeking to influence VL and elevates the importance of standardized methods for specimen collection and viral load quantitation.

Estimating vaccine efficacy during open-label follow-up of COVID-19 vaccine trials based on population-level surveillance data.

While rapid development and roll out of COVID-19 vaccines is necessary in a pandemic, the process limits the ability of clinical trials to assess longer-term vaccine efficacy. We leveraged COVID-19 surveillance data in the U.S. to evaluate vaccine efficacy in U.S. Government-funded COVID-19 vaccine efficacy trials with a three-step estimation process. First, we used a compartmental epidemiological model informed by county-level surveillance data, a "population model", to estimate SARS-CoV-2 incidence among the unvaccinated. Second, a "cohort model" was used to adjust the population SARS-CoV-2 incidence to the vaccine trial cohort, taking into account individual participant characteristics and the difference between SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 disease. Third, we fit a regression model estimating the offset between the cohort-model-based COVID-19 incidence in the unvaccinated with the placebo-group COVID-19 incidence in the trial during blinded follow-up. Counterfactual placebo COVID-19 incidence was estimated during open-label follow-up by adjusting the cohort-model-based incidence rate by the estimated offset. Vaccine efficacy during open-label follow-up was estimated by contrasting the vaccine group COVID-19 incidence with the counterfactual placebo COVID-19 incidence. We documented good performance of the methodology in a simulation study. We also applied the methodology to estimate vaccine efficacy for the two-dose AZD1222 COVID-19 vaccine using data from the phase 3 U.S. trial (ClinicalTrials.gov # NCT04516746). We estimated AZD1222 vaccine efficacy of 59.1% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 40.4%-74.3%) in April, 2021 (mean 106 days post-second dose), which reduced to 35.7% (95% UI: 15.0%-51.7%) in July, 2021 (mean 198 days post-second-dose). We developed and evaluated a methodology for estimating longer-term vaccine efficacy. This methodology could be applied to estimating counterfactual placebo incidence for future placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy trials of emerging pathogens with early termination of blinded follow-up, to active-controlled or uncontrolled COVID-19 vaccine efficacy trials, and to other clinical endpoints influenced by vaccination.

COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy in Participants With Weakened Immune Systems From 4 Randomized Controlled Trials.

BACKGROUND: Although the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines are highly efficacious at preventing severe disease in the general population, current data are lacking regarding vaccine efficacy (VE) for individuals with mild immunocompromising conditions. METHODS: A post hoc, cross-protocol analysis of participant-level data from the blinded phase of four randomized, placebo-controlled, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine phase 3 trials (Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax) was performed. We defined a "tempered immune system" (TIS) variable via a consensus panel based on medical history and medications to determine VE against symptomatic and severe COVID-19 cases in TIS participants versus non-TIS individuals starting at 14 days after completion of the primary series through the blinded phase for each of the 4 trials. An analysis of participants living with well-controlled human immunodeficiency virus was conducted using the same methods. RESULTS: A total of 3852/30 351 (12.7%) Moderna participants, 3088/29 868 (10.3%) Novavax participants, 3549/32 380 (11.0%) AstraZeneca participants, and 5047/43 788 (11.5%) Janssen participants were identified as having a TIS. Most TIS conditions (73.9%) were due to metabolism and nutritional disorders. Vaccination (vs placebo) significantly reduced the likelihood of symptomatic and severe COVID-19 for all participants for each trial. VE was not significantly different for TIS participants versus non-TIS for either symptomatic or severe COVID-19 for each trial, nor was VE significantly different in the symptomatic endpoint for participants with human immunodeficiency virus. CONCLUSIONS: For individuals with mildly immunocompromising conditions, there is no evidence of differences in VE against symptomatic or severe COVID-19 compared with those with non-TIS in the 4 COVID-19 vaccine randomized controlled efficacy trials.

Study design approaches for future active-controlled HIV prevention trials.

Objectives: Vigorous discussions are ongoing about future efficacy trial designs of candidate human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention interventions. The study design challenges of HIV prevention interventions are considerable given rapid evolution of the prevention landscape and evidence of multiple modalities of highly effective products; future trials will likely be 'active-controlled', i.e., not include a placebo arm. Thus, novel design approaches are needed to accurately assess new interventions against these highly effective active controls. Methods: To discuss active control design challenges and identify solutions, an initial virtual workshop series was hosted and supported by the International AIDS Enterprise (October 2020-March 2021). Subsequent symposia discussions continue to advance these efforts. As the non-inferiority design is an important conceptual reference design for guiding active control trials, we adopt several of its principles in our proposed design approaches. Results: We discuss six potential study design approaches for formally evaluating absolute prevention efficacy given data from an active-controlled HIV prevention trial including using data from: 1) a registrational cohort, 2) recency assays, 3) an external trial placebo arm, 4) a biomarker of HIV incidence/exposure, 5) an anti-retroviral drug concentration as a mediator of prevention efficacy, and 6) immune biomarkers as a mediator of prevention efficacy. Conclusions: Our understanding of these proposed novel approaches to future trial designs remains incomplete and there are many future statistical research needs. Yet, each of these approaches, within the context of an active-controlled trial, have the potential to yield reliable evidence of efficacy for future biomedical interventions.