Clinical risk stratification: Development and validation of the DAAE score, a tool for estimating patient risk of transition to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Because secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) is associated with worse prognosis, early predictive tools are needed. We aimed to use systematic literature review and advanced methods to create and validate a clinical tool for estimating individual patient risk of transition to SPMS over five years. METHODS: Data from the Jacobs Multiple Sclerosis Center (JMSC) and the Multiple Sclerosis Center Amsterdam (MSCA) was collected between 1994 and 2022. Participants were relapsing-remitting adult patients at initial evaluation. We created the tool in four stages: (1) identification of candidate predictors from systematic literature review, (2) ordinal cutoff determination, (3) feature selection, (4) feature weighting. RESULTS: Patients in the development/internal-validation/external-validation datasets respectively (n = 787/n = 522/n = 877) had a median age of 44.1/42.4/36.6 and disease duration of 7.7/6.2/4.4 years. From these, 12.6 %/10.2 %/15.4 % converted to SPMS (median=4.9/5.2/5.0 years). The DAAE Score was named from included predictors: Disease duration, Age at disease onset, Age, EDSS. It ranges from 0 to 12 points, with risk groups of very-low=0-2, low=3-7, medium=8-9, and high≥10. Risk of transition to SPMS increased proportionally across these groups in development (2.7 %/7.4 %/18.8 %/40.2 %), internal-validation (2.9 %/6.8 %/26.8 %/36.5 %), and external-validation (7.5 %/9.6 %/22.4 %/37.5 %). CONCLUSION: The DAAE Score estimates individual patient risk of transition to SPMS consistently across datasets internationally using clinically-accessible data. With further validation, this tool could be used for clinical risk estimation.

Digital outcome measures are associated with brain atrophy in patients with multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Digital monitoring of people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) using smartphone-based monitoring tools is a promising method to assess disease activity and progression. OBJECTIVE: To study cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between active and passive digital monitoring parameters and MRI volume measures in PwMS. METHODS: In this prospective study, 92 PwMS were included. Clinical tests [Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), Timed 25 Foot Walk test (T25FW), 9-Hole Peg Test (NHPT), and Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT)] and structural MRI scans were performed at baseline (M0) and 12-month follow-up (M12). Active monitoring included the smartphone-based Symbol Digit Modalities Test (sSDMT) and 2 Minute Walk Test (s2MWT), while passive monitoring was based on smartphone keystroke dynamics (KD). Linear regression analyses were used to determine cross-sectional and longitudinal relations between digital and clinical outcomes and brain volumes, with age, disease duration and sex as covariates. RESULTS: In PwMS, both sSDMT and SDMT were associated with thalamic volumes and lesion volumes. KD were related to brain, ventricular, thalamic and lesion volumes. No relations were found between s2MWT and MRI volumes. NHPT scores were associated with lesion volumes only, while EDSS and T25FW were not related to MRI. No longitudinal associations were found for any of the outcome measures between M0 and M12. CONCLUSION: Our results show clear cross-sectional correlations between digital biomarkers and brain volumes in PwMS, which were not all present for conventional clinical outcomes, supporting the potential added value of digital monitoring tools.

Association of volumetric MRI measures and disability in MS patients of the same age: Descriptions from a birth year cohort.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Although MRI-based markers of neuroinflammation have proven crucial for the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (MS), predicting clinical progression with inflammation remains difficult. Neurodegenerative markers such as brain volume loss show stronger clinical (predictive) correlations, but also harbor age-related variation that must be disentangled from disease duration. In this study we investigated how clinical disability is related to volumetric MRI measures in a cohort of MS patients and healthy controls (HC) of the same age: Project Y. METHODS: This study included 234 MS patients born in 1966 and 112 HC born between 1965 and 1967 in the Netherlands. Disability was quantified using the expanded disability status scale (EDSS), nine hole peg test (9HPT), and timed 25 foot walking test (T25FWT). Volumes were quantified on 3T MRI as normalized whole brain (NBV) and regional gray matter (GM) volumes using the same scanner and MRI protocol: cortical (normalized cortical gray matter volume; NCGMV), deep (NDGMV), thalamic (NThalV), and cerebellar (NCbV) GM volumes. In addition, mean upper cervical cord area (MUCCA), white matter lesion volume (LV), and spinal cord lesions were assessed. These measures were compared between patients and HC, and related to disability measures using linear regression. RESULTS: Mean age of people with MS (PwMS) was 52.8 years (SD 0.9) and median disease duration 15.8 years (IQR 8.7-24.8). All global and regional brain measures were lower in MS patients compared to HC. Univariate regression models showed that NDGMV (ß = -0.20) and MUCCA (ß = -0.38) were most strongly related to the EDSS in all PwMS. After subtype stratification, MUCCA was most strongly related to the EDSS (ß = -0.60) and 9HPT (ß = -0.55) in secondary progressive PwMS. Multivariate regression models demonstrated that in all PwMS, the EDSS was best explained by lower MUCCA, longer disease durations and a progressive disease course (adjusted-R (Sastre-Garriga et al., 2017) = 0.26, p < 0.001). MUCCA was a consistent correlate in separate models of the EDSS for all PwMS, relapsing and progressive onset PwMS. The 9HPT (adjusted-R (Sastre-Garriga et al., 2017) = 0.20, p < 0.001) was best explained by lower MUCCA, higher LV and pack years, while lower limb disability (adjusted-R (Sastre-Garriga et al., 2017) = 0.11, p < 0.001) was best explained by lower MUCCA, progressive onset MS and female sex. DISCUSSION: Our results indicate that in a cohort unbiased by age differences, spinal cord and deep gray matter volumes best related to physical disability. Our results support the use of these measures in clinical practice and trials.

Cognitive functioning in everyday life: The development of a questionnaire on instrumental activities of daily living in multiple sclerosis.

Neuropsychological test scores in people with MS (PwMS) do not fully reflect cognitive functioning in daily life. Therefore, we developed a questionnaire based on instrumental activities of daily living (IADL), using the Amsterdam IADL-Q© for Alzheimer's disease as starting point. Forty-eight items were evaluated on relevance and clarity by (inter)national experts (n = 30), PwMS (n = 61) and proxies (n = 30). Consequently, four items were omitted, two items were merged and seven items were added. Fifty items were included in the IADL questionnaire specific to cognitive functioning in MS (the MS-IADL-Q). Future studies are warranted to assess the psychometric properties of the MS-IADL-Q.