Overall effect of a campaign with measles vaccine on the composite outcome mortality or hospital admission: A cluster-randomized trial among children aged 9-59 months in rural Guinea-Bissau.

OBJECTIVES: Campaigns with measles vaccine (C-MV) are conducted to eradicate measles, but prior studies indicate that MV reduces non-measles mortality and hospital admissions too. We hypothesized that C-MV reduces death/hospital admission by 30%. METHODS: Between 2016-2019, we conducted a non-blinded cluster-randomized trial randomizing village clusters in rural Guinea-Bissau to a C-MV targeting children aged 9-59 months. In Cox proportional hazards models, we assessed the effect of C-MV, obtaining hazard ratios (HR) for the composite outcome (death/hospital admission). We also examined potential effect modifiers. RESULTS: Among 18,411 children (9636 in 111 intervention clusters/8775 in 110 control clusters), 379 events occurred (208 intervention/171 control) during a median follow-up period of 22 months. C-MV did not reduce the composite outcome (HR 1.12, 95% confidence interval 0.88-1.41). Mortality among enrolled children (5.3 intervention and 4.6 control, per 1000 person-years) was approximately half the pre-trial mortality rate (11.1 intervention and 8.9 control, per 1000 person-years). Neither planned nor explorative analyses of potential effect modifiers explained the contrasting results to prior studies. CONCLUSION: C-MV did not reduce overall mortality or hospital admission. This might be explained by changes in disease patterns, baseline differences in health status, and/or modifying effects of other campaigns during follow-up.

Patient-Important Outcomes Other Than Mortality in Contemporary ICU Trials: A Scoping Review.

OBJECTIVES: Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) conducted in adult ICU patients increasingly include patient-important outcomes other than mortality. This comes with challenges regarding outcome choices/definitions, handling of deceased patients and missing data in analyses, and choices of effect measures and statistical methods due to complex distributions. This scoping review aimed to characterize how these challenges are handled in relevant contemporary RCTs. DATA SOURCES: We systematically searched 10 selected journals for RCTs conducted primarily in adult ICU patients published between 1 January 2018 and 5 May 2022 reporting at least one patient-important outcome other than mortality, including "days alive without"…-type outcomes, functional/cognitive/neurologic outcomes, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) outcomes, and ordinal/other outcomes. STUDY SELECTION: Abstracts and full-texts were assessed independently and in duplicate by two reviewers. DATA EXTRACTION: Data were extracted independently and in duplicate by two reviewers using predefined and pilot-tested extraction forms and subsequently categorized to facilitate analysis. DATA SYNTHESIS: We included 687 outcomes from 167 RCTs, with 32% of RCTs using a patient-important outcome other than mortality as a (co-)primary outcome, most frequently "days alive without"…-type outcomes. Many different functional/cognitive/neurologic (103) and HRQoL (29) outcomes were reported. Handling of deceased patients varied, with analyses frequently restricted to survivors only for functional/cognitive/neurologic (62%) and HRQoL (89%) outcomes. Follow-up was generally longer and missing data proportions higher for functional/cognitive/neurologic and HRQoL outcomes. Most outcomes were analyzed using nonparametric tests (31%), linear regression/ t tests (27%), chi-square-like tests (12%), and proportional odds logistic regression (9%), often without presentation of actual treatment effects estimates (38%). CONCLUSIONS: In this sample of RCTs, substantial variation in practice and suboptimal methodological choices were observed. This calls for increased focus on standardizing outcome choices and definitions, adequate handling of missing data and deceased patients in analyses, and use of statistical methods quantifying effect sizes.

Arterial oxygen tensions in mechanically ventilated ICU patients and mortality: a retrospective, multicentre, observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Supplemental oxygen therapy is commonly required for respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation in the ICU. However, hyperoxaemia may be injurious and may increase mortality. We evaluated the relationship amongst the degree of hyperoxaemia and changes in fraction of inspired oxygen (Fio2) in response to hyperoxaemia, as well as associations with mortality in mechanically ventilated ICU patients. METHODS: We retrospectively identified all invasively mechanically ventilated patients admitted to five ICUs, and retrieved all oxygen tension (Pao2) and Fio2 data. We assessed the time between arterial blood gas (ABG) samples, proportions of patients with hyperoxaemia, and changes in Fio2 when hyperoxaemia was present. The primary outcome was the association between Pao2 (assessed by mechanically ventilated exposure-time-divided area under the curve [AUC]) and mortality (in-ICU and post-ICU discharge) using a multistate illness-death model with transition intensities estimated by Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: We assessed 177 769 ABG analyses obtained from 4998 patients between January 2012 and June 2016. The median time between ABGs was 3 h (inter-quartile range: 2-4 h); the median Pao2 was 11.3 kPa (9.8-13.6 kPa), and Fio2 was 0.40 (0.35-0.50). Hyperoxaemia (Pao2 >13.7 kPa) was present in 23.9% of the ABGs, and hyperoxaemia seemed to be disregarded when Fio2 was <0.40, as >50% of these Fio2 values were not subsequently reduced. AUC Pao2 >16.0 kPa was associated with increased ICU mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.28-2.40). CONCLUSIONS: In mechanically ventilated ICU patients, hyperoxaemia was common. Although oxygen supplementation was often reduced when hyperoxaemia was observed, several patients remained hyperoxaemic. Hyperoxaemia was associated with increased ICU mortality in these patients.

Education and incident type 2 diabetes: quantifying the impact of differential exposure and susceptibility to being overweight or obese.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Educational inequality in type 2 diabetes incidence is evident in many high-income countries. Previous studies have shown that differential exposure to being overweight/obese across educational groups may partly explain this inequality. Whether differential susceptibility to being overweight/obese across educational groups contributes to this inequality has been investigated less frequently, even though it is a plausible mechanism. The two mechanisms may even be highly intertwined. In this longitudinal cohort study, we investigated the simultaneous contribution of differential exposure and differential susceptibility to being overweight/obese to educational inequality in type 2 diabetes incidence. METHODS: The study population comprised 53,159 Danish men and women aged 50-64 years at baseline who were followed for a mean of 14.7 years. We estimated rate differences of type 2 diabetes by education level per 100,000 person-years. Using counterfactual mediation analysis, these rate differences were decomposed into proportions attributable to differential exposure, differential susceptibility and all other pathways, respectively. We compared this approach with conventional approaches to mediation and interaction analysis. RESULTS: Compared with a high level of education, a low education level was associated with 454 (95% CI 398, 510) additional cases of type 2 diabetes, and a medium education level with 316 (CI 268, 363) additional cases. Differential exposure to being overweight/obese accounted for 37% (CI 31%, 45%) of the additional cases among those with a low education level and 29% (CI 24%, 36%) of the additional cases among those with a medium education level. Differential susceptibility accounted for 9% (CI 4%, 14%) and 6% (CI 3%, 10%) of the additional cases among those with a low and medium education level, respectively. Compared with the counterfactual approach, the conventional approaches suggested stronger effects of both mechanisms. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Differential exposure and susceptibility to being overweight/obese are both important mechanisms in the association between education and type 2 diabetes incidence.

IV estimation without distributional assumptions.

It is widely known that Instrumental Variable (IV) estimation allows the researcher to estimate causal effects between an exposure and an outcome even in face of serious uncontrolled confounding. The key requirement for IV estimation is the existence of a variable, the instrument, which only affects the outcome through its effects on the exposure and that the instrument-outcome relationship is unconfounded. Countless papers have employed such techniques and carefully addressed the validity of the IV assumption just mentioned. However, less appreciated is that fact that the IV estimation also depends on a number of distributional assumptions in particular linearities. In this paper, we propose a novel bounding procedure which can bound the true causal effect relying only on the key IV assumption and not on any distributional assumptions. For a purely binary case (instrument, exposure, and outcome all binary), such boundaries have been proposed by Balke and Pearl in 1997. We extend such boundaries to non-binary settings. In addition, our procedure offers a tuning parameter such that one can go from the traditional IV analysis, which provides a point estimate, to a completely unrestricted bound and anything in between. Subject matter knowledge can be used when setting the tuning parameter. To the best of our knowledge, no such methods exist elsewhere. The method is illustrated using a pivotal study which introduced IV estimation to epidemiologists. Here, we demonstrate that the conclusion of this paper indeed hinges on these additional distributional assumptions. R-code is provided in the Supporting Information.

How are children who are delayed in the Childhood Vaccination Programme vaccinated: A nationwide register-based cohort study of Danish children aged 15-24 months and semi-structured interviews with vaccination providers.

Aims: Delay of childhood vaccinations is common and influences efforts to reduce targeted diseases. In Denmark, the diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, polio and Haemophilus influenzae type b (DTaP-IPV-Hib) vaccine is recommended at ages 3, 5 and 12 months and the first measles-mumps-rubella vaccine (MMR-1) at 15 months. Following guidelines, children delayed at age 15 months should receive MMR-1 and DTaP-IPV-Hib-3 simultaneously, unless DTaP-IPV-Hib-2 was received less than 6 months ago, when MMR-1 alone is recommended. We studied compliance with these guidelines and the reasons for non-compliance with a focus on vaccination providers. Methods: We used a nationwide register-based cohort study of children born in Denmark between January 2000 and June 2013, who were lacking MMR-1 and DTaP-IPV-Hib-3 at age 15 months and were followed to 24 months. We also performed semi-structured telephone interviews with vaccination providers. Results: The study consisted of 156,921 children (18% of the children born in the period). Among the 40,060 children who had received DTaP-IPV-Hib-2 less than 6 months ago, 37,892 (95%) received MMR-1 alone. Among the 88,469 children who had received DTaP-IPV-Hib-2 more than 6 months ago, 6334 (7%) received DTaP-IPV-Hib-3 and MMR-1 simultaneously. The interviews indicated that some vaccination providers are reluctant to give multiple vaccinations at the same visit and some have a preference of following the usual sequence in the programme. Conclusions: Vaccination providers generally complied with the recommended minimum 6 months' interval between DTaP-IPV-Hib-2 and DTaP-IPV-Hib-3. Conversely, there was a low compliance with the recommendation to administer DTaP-IPV-Hib-3 and MMR-1 simultaneously. More efforts are needed to ensure timely vaccination.

Hospitalizations for infections by age and sex: register-based study of Danish children 1977-2014.

Background: Infectious diseases are a major cause of hospitalizations in children and there is increasing interest in sex differences in immunity during childhood. Therefore, we examined hospital admission rates for infectious diseases in Danish children by age and sex.Methods: Register-based cohort study of all Danish residents aged 0-14 years from 1977 to 2014. We examined total admission rate for infections and rates of admission by types of infection.Results: This study included 3,689,999 children and 1,080,750 admissions for infections. The admission rates peaked at age 0 months (boys, 197.9 admissions per 1000 person-years; girls, 160.9) and age 11 months (boys, 155.5; girls, 113.9). The male-female ratio of admissions was 1.25 for children aged 0-14 years, but varied by age and type of infection. Boys had the highest admission rate for any infection until 9 years of age after which girls had a higher rate. Boys had higher admission rates for gastrointestinal infections and lower respiratory tract infections than girls at all ages. The admission rates for upper respiratory tract infections and 'Other infections' for girls were higher than the rates for boys at age 10 and 4 years, respectively.Conclusions: Overall, boys had around 25% higher admission rates for infections than girls, with some variation according to age and type of infection.

Revaccination With Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccine and Infectious Disease Morbidity: A Danish Register-based Cohort Study.

Background: It has been hypothesized that revaccination with live vaccines is associated with reductions in off-target morbidity and mortality. We examined if revaccination with the live measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine (MMR) is associated with a lower rate of off-target infections. Methods: We performed a register-based nationwide cohort study that included 295559 children born in Denmark from April 2004 to December 2010. The cohort were followed from age 47 months (1 month before turning age 4 years, which is the recommended age of the second MMR [MMR-2]) until age 60 months. In Cox regression, we estimated adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) of antibiotic prescriptions and hospital admissions for any infection comparing MMR-2 as most recent vaccine with not having MMR-2 as the most recent vaccine. Results: There was no association between MMR-2 and antibiotic prescriptions (aIRR, 1.01; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.99-1.02). The aIRR for the association between MMR-2 and admissions for infection of any duration was 0.93 (95% CI, 0.88-0.98). For admissions for infection lasting 0 to 1 day, the aIRR was 0.97 (95% CI, 0.90-1.03) compared with the aIRR of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.74-0.95) for admissions for infection lasting 2 days or longer (test for equality of aIRRs, P = .039). Conclusions: In this study, revaccination with MMR appeared safe in relation to off-target infections and was associated with a lower rate of severe off-target infections. More studies of the possible association between revaccination with live attenuated vaccines and off-target infections are needed.

A marginal structural model for recurrent events in the presence of time-dependent confounding: non-specific effects of vaccines on child hospitalisations.

Using a Danish register-based study on childhood vaccination and hospitalisation as motivation, a marginal structural model for recurrent events is studied. The model addresses a number of challenges which may be seen more generally in large register-based cohort studies. One is to adjust for a time-dependent confounder when studying the effect of a time-varying exposure on a recurrent event based on an analysis in continuous time. Another is to report results via a measure which is easy to interpret and communicate even though quite elaborate treatment regimes are considered. Lastly, the implementation of continuously updated weights implies a substantial computationally demanding workload. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.