Improving shared decision making for lung cancer treatment by developing and validating an open-source web based patient decision aid for stage I-II non-small cell lung cancer.

The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a proof-of-concept open-source individualized Patient Decision Aid (iPDA) with a group of patients, physicians, and computer scientists. The iPDA was developed based on the International Patient Decision Aid Standards (IPDAS). A previously published questionnaire was adapted and used to test the user-friendliness and content of the iPDA. The questionnaire contained 40 multiple-choice questions, and answers were given on a 5-point Likert Scale (1-5) ranging from "strongly disagree" to "strongly agree." In addition to the questionnaire, semi-structured interviews were conducted with patients. We performed a descriptive analysis of the responses. The iPDA was evaluated by 28 computer scientists, 21 physicians, and 13 patients. The results demonstrate that the iPDA was found valuable by 92% (patients), 96% (computer scientists), and 86% (physicians), while the treatment information was judged useful by 92%, 96%, and 95%, respectively. Additionally, the tool was thought to be motivating for patients to actively engage in their treatment by 92%, 93%, and 91% of the above respondents groups. More multimedia components and less text were suggested by the respondents as ways to improve the tool and user interface. In conclusion, we successfully developed and tested an iPDA for patients with stage I-II Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC).

Automated detection and segmentation of non-small cell lung cancer computed tomography images.

Detection and segmentation of abnormalities on medical images is highly important for patient management including diagnosis, radiotherapy, response evaluation, as well as for quantitative image research. We present a fully automated pipeline for the detection and volumetric segmentation of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) developed and validated on 1328 thoracic CT scans from 8 institutions. Along with quantitative performance detailed by image slice thickness, tumor size, image interpretation difficulty, and tumor location, we report an in-silico prospective clinical trial, where we show that the proposed method is faster and more reproducible compared to the experts. Moreover, we demonstrate that on average, radiologists & radiation oncologists preferred automatic segmentations in 56% of the cases. Additionally, we evaluate the prognostic power of the automatic contours by applying RECIST criteria and measuring the tumor volumes. Segmentations by our method stratified patients into low and high survival groups with higher significance compared to those methods based on manual contours.

Selectively Targeting Tumor Hypoxia With the Hypoxia-Activated Prodrug CP-506.

Hypoxia-activated prodrugs (HAP) are a promising class of antineoplastic agents that can selectively eliminate hypoxic tumor cells. This study evaluates the hypoxia-selectivity and antitumor activity of CP-506, a DNA alkylating HAP with favorable pharmacologic properties. Stoichiometry of reduction, one-electron affinity, and back-oxidation rate of CP-506 were characterized by fast-reaction radiolytic methods with observed parameters fulfilling requirements for oxygen-sensitive bioactivation. Net reduction, metabolism, and cytotoxicity of CP-506 were maximally inhibited at oxygen concentrations above 1 µmol/L (0.1% O2). CP-506 demonstrated cytotoxicity selectively in hypoxic 2D and 3D cell cultures with normoxic/anoxic IC50 ratios up to 203. Complete resistance to aerobic (two-electron) metabolism by aldo-keto reductase 1C3 was confirmed through gain-of-function studies while retention of hypoxic (one-electron) bioactivation by various diflavin oxidoreductases was also demonstrated. In vivo, the antitumor effects of CP-506 were selective for hypoxic tumor cells and causally related to tumor oxygenation. CP-506 effectively decreased the hypoxic fraction and inhibited growth of a wide range of hypoxic xenografts. A multivariate regression analysis revealed baseline tumor hypoxia and in vitro sensitivity to CP-506 were significantly correlated with treatment response. Our results demonstrate that CP-506 selectively targets hypoxic tumor cells and has broad antitumor activity. Our data indicate that tumor hypoxia and cellular sensitivity to CP-506 are strong determinants of the antitumor effects of CP-506.

Modeling-Based Decision Support System for Radical Prostatectomy Versus External Beam Radiotherapy for Prostate Cancer Incorporating an In Silico Clinical Trial and a Cost-Utility Study.

The aim of this study is to build a decision support system (DSS) to select radical prostatectomy (RP) or external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) for low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer patients. We used an individual state-transition model based on predictive models for estimating tumor control and toxicity probabilities. We performed analyses on a synthetically generated dataset of 1000 patients with realistic clinical parameters, externally validated by comparison to randomized clinical trials, and set up an in silico clinical trial for elderly patients. We assessed the cost-effectiveness (CE) of the DSS for treatment selection by comparing it to randomized treatment allotment. Using the DSS, 47.8% of synthetic patients were selected for RP and 52.2% for EBRT. During validation, differences with the simulations of late toxicity and biochemical failure never exceeded 2%. The in silico trial showed that for elderly patients, toxicity has more influence on the decision than TCP, and the predicted QoL depends on the initial erectile function. The DSS is estimated to result in cost savings (EUR 323 (95% CI: EUR 213-433)) and more quality-adjusted life years (QALYs; 0.11 years, 95% CI: 0.00-0.22) than randomized treatment selection.

Structural and functional radiomics for lung cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Lung cancer ranks second in new cancer cases and first in cancer-related deaths worldwide. Precision medicine is working on altering treatment approaches and improving outcomes in this patient population. Radiological images are a powerful non-invasive tool in the screening and diagnosis of early-stage lung cancer, treatment strategy support, prognosis assessment, and follow-up for advanced-stage lung cancer. Recently, radiological features have evolved from solely semantic to include (handcrafted and deep) radiomic features. Radiomics entails the extraction and analysis of quantitative features from medical images using mathematical and machine learning methods to explore possible ties with biology and clinical outcomes. METHODS: Here, we outline the latest applications of both structural and functional radiomics in detection, diagnosis, and prediction of pathology, gene mutation, treatment strategy, follow-up, treatment response evaluation, and prognosis in the field of lung cancer. CONCLUSION: The major drawbacks of radiomics are the lack of large datasets with high-quality data, standardization of methodology, the black-box nature of deep learning, and reproducibility. The prerequisite for the clinical implementation of radiomics is that these limitations are addressed. Future directions include a safer and more efficient model-training mode, merge multi-modality images, and combined multi-discipline or multi-omics to form "Medomics."

Non-invasive imaging prediction of tumor hypoxia: A novel developed and externally validated CT and FDG-PET-based radiomic signatures.

BACKGROUND: Tumor hypoxia increases resistance to radiotherapy and systemic therapy. Our aim was to develop and validate a disease-agnostic and disease-specific CT (+FDG-PET) based radiomics hypoxia classification signature. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 808 patients with imaging data were included: N = 100 training/N = 183 external validation cases for a disease-agnostic CT hypoxia classification signature, N = 76 training/N = 39 validation cases for the H&N CT signature and N = 62 training/N = 36 validation cases for the Lung CT signature. The primary gross tumor volumes (GTV) were manually defined by experts on CT. In order to dichotomize between hypoxic/well-oxygenated tumors a threshold of 20% was used for the [18F]-HX4-derived hypoxic fractions (HF). A random forest (RF)-based machine-learning classifier/regressor was trained to classify patients as hypoxia-positive/ negative based on radiomic features. RESULTS: A 11 feature "disease-agnostic CT model" reached AUC's of respectively 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.62-0.94), 0.82 (95% CI, 0.67-0.96) and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.67-0.89) in three external validation datasets. A "disease-agnostic FDG-PET model" reached an AUC of 0.73 (0.95% CI, 0.49-0.97) in validation by combining 5 features. The highest "lung-specific CT model" reached an AUC of 0.80 (0.95% CI, 0.65-0.95) in validation with 4 CT features, while the "H&N-specific CT model" reached an AUC of 0.84 (0.95% CI, 0.64-1.00) in validation with 15 CT features. A tumor volume-alone model was unable to significantly classify patients as hypoxia-positive/ negative. A significant survival split (P = 0.037) was found between CT-classified hypoxia strata in an external H&N cohort (n = 517), while 117 significant hypoxia gene-CT signature feature associations were found in an external lung cohort (n = 80). CONCLUSION: The disease-specific radiomics signatures perform better than the disease agnostic ones. By identifying hypoxic patients our signatures have the potential to enrich interventional hypoxia-targeting trials.

Privacy-preserving distributed learning of radiomics to predict overall survival and HPV status in head and neck cancer.

A major challenge in radiomics is assembling data from multiple centers. Sharing data between hospitals is restricted by legal and ethical regulations. Distributed learning is a technique, enabling training models on multicenter data without data leaving the hospitals ("privacy-preserving" distributed learning). This study tested feasibility of distributed learning of radiomics data for prediction of two year overall survival and HPV status in head and neck cancer (HNC) patients. Pretreatment CT images were collected from 1174 HNC patients in 6 different cohorts. 981 radiomic features were extracted using Z-Rad software implementation. Hierarchical clustering was performed to preselect features. Classification was done using logistic regression. In the validation dataset, the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) were compared between the models trained in the centralized and distributed manner. No difference in ROC was observed with respect to feature selection. The logistic regression coefficients were identical between the methods (absolute difference <10-7). In comparison of the full workflow (feature selection and classification), no significant difference in ROC was found between centralized and distributed models for both studied endpoints (DeLong p > 0.05). In conclusion, both feature selection and classification are feasible in a distributed manner using radiomics data, which opens new possibility for training more reliable radiomics models.

Systematic Review of Privacy-Preserving Distributed Machine Learning From Federated Databases in Health Care.

Big data for health care is one of the potential solutions to deal with the numerous challenges of health care, such as rising cost, aging population, precision medicine, universal health coverage, and the increase of noncommunicable diseases. However, data centralization for big data raises privacy and regulatory concerns.Covered topics include (1) an introduction to privacy of patient data and distributed learning as a potential solution to preserving these data, a description of the legal context for patient data research, and a definition of machine/deep learning concepts; (2) a presentation of the adopted review protocol; (3) a presentation of the search results; and (4) a discussion of the findings, limitations of the review, and future perspectives.Distributed learning from federated databases makes data centralization unnecessary. Distributed algorithms iteratively analyze separate databases, essentially sharing research questions and answers between databases instead of sharing the data. In other words, one can learn from separate and isolated datasets without patient data ever leaving the individual clinical institutes.Distributed learning promises great potential to facilitate big data for medical application, in particular for international consortiums. Our purpose is to review the major implementations of distributed learning in health care.

Preoperative CT-based radiomics combined with intraoperative frozen section is predictive of invasive adenocarcinoma in pulmonary nodules: a multicenter study.

OBJECTIVES: Develop a CT-based radiomics model and combine it with frozen section (FS) and clinical data to distinguish invasive adenocarcinomas (IA) from preinvasive lesions/minimally invasive adenocarcinomas (PM). METHODS: This multicenter study cohort of 623 lung adenocarcinomas was split into training (n = 331), testing (n = 143), and external validation dataset (n = 149). Random forest models were built using selected radiomics features, results from FS, lesion volume, clinical and semantic features, and combinations thereof. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curves (AUC) was used to evaluate model performances. The diagnosis accuracy, calibration, and decision curves of models were tested. RESULTS: The radiomics-based model shows good predictive performance and diagnostic accuracy for distinguishing IA from PM, with AUCs of 0.89, 0.89, and 0.88, in the training, testing, and validation datasets, respectively, and with corresponding accuracies of 0.82, 0.79, and 0.85. Adding lesion volume and FS significantly increases the performance of the model with AUCs of 0.96, 0.97, and 0.96, and with accuracies of 0.91, 0.94, and 0.93 in the three datasets. There is no significant difference in AUC between the FS model enriched with radiomics and volume against an FS model enriched with volume alone, while the former has higher accuracy. The model combining all available information shows minor non-significant improvements in AUC and accuracy compared with an FS model enriched with radiomics and volume. CONCLUSIONS: Radiomics signatures are potential biomarkers for the risk of IA, especially in combination with FS, and could help guide surgical strategy for pulmonary nodules patients. KEY POINTS: • A CT-based radiomics model may be a valuable tool for preoperative prediction of invasive adenocarcinoma for patients with pulmonary nodules. • Radiomics combined with frozen sections could help in guiding surgery strategy for patients with pulmonary nodules.

Deep learning in fracture detection: a narrative review.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a general term that implies the use of a computer to model intelligent behavior with minimal human intervention. AI, particularly deep learning, has recently made substantial strides in perception tasks allowing machines to better represent and interpret complex data. Deep learning is a subset of AI represented by the combination of artificial neuron layers. In the last years, deep learning has gained great momentum. In the field of orthopaedics and traumatology, some studies have been done using deep learning to detect fractures in radiographs. Deep learning studies to detect and classify fractures on computed tomography (CT) scans are even more limited. In this narrative review, we provide a brief overview of deep learning technology: we (1) describe the ways in which deep learning until now has been applied to fracture detection on radiographs and CT examinations; (2) discuss what value deep learning offers to this field; and finally (3) comment on future directions of this technology.

Distributed learning on 20 000+ lung cancer patients - The Personal Health Train.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Access to healthcare data is indispensable for scientific progress and innovation. Sharing healthcare data is time-consuming and notoriously difficult due to privacy and regulatory concerns. The Personal Health Train (PHT) provides a privacy-by-design infrastructure connecting FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) data sources and allows distributed data analysis and machine learning. Patient data never leaves a healthcare institute. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Lung cancer patient-specific databases (tumor staging and post-treatment survival information) of oncology departments were translated according to a FAIR data model and stored locally in a graph database. Software was installed locally to enable deployment of distributed machine learning algorithms via a central server. Algorithms (MATLAB, code and documentation publicly available) are patient privacy-preserving as only summary statistics and regression coefficients are exchanged with the central server. A logistic regression model to predict post-treatment two-year survival was trained and evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), root mean square prediction error (RMSE) and calibration plots. RESULTS: In 4 months, we connected databases with 23 203 patient cases across 8 healthcare institutes in 5 countries (Amsterdam, Cardiff, Maastricht, Manchester, Nijmegen, Rome, Rotterdam, Shanghai) using the PHT. Summary statistics were computed across databases. A distributed logistic regression model predicting post-treatment two-year survival was trained on 14 810 patients treated between 1978 and 2011 and validated on 8 393 patients treated between 2012 and 2015. CONCLUSION: The PHT infrastructure demonstrably overcomes patient privacy barriers to healthcare data sharing and enables fast data analyses across multiple institutes from different countries with different regulatory regimens. This infrastructure promotes global evidence-based medicine while prioritizing patient privacy.

Challenges and caveats of a multi-center retrospective radiomics study: an example of early treatment response assessment for NSCLC patients using FDG-PET/CT radiomics.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models based on individual patient characteristics can improve treatment decisions and outcome in the future. In many (radiomic) studies, small size and heterogeneity of datasets is a challenge that often limits performance and potential clinical applicability of these models. The current study is example of a retrospective multi-centric study with challenges and caveats. To highlight common issues and emphasize potential pitfalls, we aimed for an extensive analysis of these multi-center pre-treatment datasets, with an additional 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) scan acquired during treatment. METHODS: The dataset consisted of 138 stage II-IV non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients from four different cohorts acquired from three different institutes. The differences between the cohorts were compared in terms of clinical characteristics and using the so-called 'cohort differences model' approach. Moreover, the potential prognostic performances for overall survival of radiomic features extracted from CT or FDG-PET, or relative or absolute differences between the scans at the two time points, were assessed using the LASSO regression method. Furthermore, the performances of five different classifiers were evaluated for all image sets. RESULTS: The individual cohorts substantially differed in terms of patient characteristics. Moreover, the cohort differences model indicated statistically significant differences between the cohorts. Neither LASSO nor any of the tested classifiers resulted in a clinical relevant prognostic model that could be validated on the available datasets. CONCLUSION: The results imply that the study might have been influenced by a limited sample size, heterogeneous patient characteristics, and inconsistent imaging parameters. No prognostic performance of FDG-PET or CT based radiomics models can be reported. This study highlights the necessity of extensive evaluations of cohorts and of validation datasets, especially in retrospective multi-centric datasets.

Decision Support Systems in Oncology.

Precision medicine is the future of health care: please watch the animation at https://vimeo.com/241154708 . As a technology-intensive and -dependent medical discipline, oncology will be at the vanguard of this impending change. However, to bring about precision medicine, a fundamental conundrum must be solved: Human cognitive capacity, typically constrained to five variables for decision making in the context of the increasing number of available biomarkers and therapeutic options, is a limiting factor to the realization of precision medicine. Given this level of complexity and the restriction of human decision making, current methods are untenable. A solution to this challenge is multifactorial decision support systems (DSSs), continuously learning artificial intelligence platforms that integrate all available data-clinical, imaging, biologic, genetic, cost-to produce validated predictive models. DSSs compare the personalized probable outcomes-toxicity, tumor control, quality of life, cost effectiveness-of various care pathway decisions to ensure optimal efficacy and economy. DSSs can be integrated into the workflows both strategically (at the multidisciplinary tumor board level to support treatment choice, eg, surgery or radiotherapy) and tactically (at the specialist level to support treatment technique, eg, prostate spacer or not). In some countries, the reimbursement of certain treatments, such as proton therapy, is already conditional on the basis that a DSS is used. DSSs have many stakeholders-clinicians, medical directors, medical insurers, patient advocacy groups-and are a natural consequence of big data in health care. Here, we provide an overview of DSSs, their challenges, opportunities, and capacity to improve clinical decision making, with an emphasis on the utility in oncology.

Genomics of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC): Association between CT-based imaging features and EGFR and K-RAS mutations in 122 patients-An external validation.

OBJECTIVE: To validate previously identified associations between radiological features and clinical features with Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR)/ Kirsten RAt Sarcoma (KRAS) alterations in an independent group of patients with Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC). MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 122 patients with NSCLC tested for EGFR/KRAS alterations were included. Clinical and radiological features were recorded. Univariate analysis were performed to look at the associations of the studied features with EGFR/KRAS alterations. Previously calculated composite model parameters for each gene alteration prediction were applied to this validation cohort. ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristic) curves were drawn using the previously validated composite models, and also for each significant individual characteristic of the previous training cohort model. The Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) with 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) was calculated and compared between the full models. RESULTS: At univariate analysis, EGFR+ confirmed an association with an internal air bronchogram, pleural retraction, emphysema and lack of smoking; KRAS+ with round shape, emphysema and smoking. The AUC (95%CI) in the new cohort was confirmed to be high for EGFR+ prediction, with a value of: 0.82 (0.69-0.95) vs. 0.82 in the previous cohort, whereas it was smaller for KRAS+ prediction, with a value of 0.60 (0.48-0.72) vs. 0.67 in the previous cohort. Looking at single features in the new cohort, we found that the AUC for the models including only smoking was similar to that of the full model (including radiological and clinical features) for both gene alterations. CONCLUSIONS: Although this study validated the significant association of clinical and radiological features with EGFR/KRAS alterations, models based on these composite features are not superior to smoking history alone to predict the mutations.

Blood steroids are associated with prognosis and fat distribution in endometrial cancer.

BACKGROUND: Despite being a hormone dependent cancer, there is limited knowledge regarding the relation between level of steroids in blood and prognosis for endometrial cancer (EC) patients. METHODS: In this study we investigated plasma levels of 19 steroids using liquid-chromatography tandem mass-spectrometry in 38 postmenopausal EC patients, 19 with long, and 19 with short survival. We explored if estradiol levels were associated with specific abdominal fat distribution patterns and if transcriptional alterations related to estradiol levels could be observed in tumor samples. RESULTS: The plasma steroid levels for DHEA, DHEAS, progesterone, 21 OH progesterone and E1S were significantly increased (all p < 0.05) in patients with long survival compared to short. Estradiol levels were significantly positively correlated with visceral fat percentage (p = 0.035), and an increased expression of genes involved in estrogen related signaling was observed in tumors from patients with high estradiol levels in plasma. CONCLUSION: Several of the identified plasma steroids represent promising biomarkers in EC patients. The association between increased estradiol levels and a high percentage of visceral fat indicates that visceral fat is a larger contributor to estradiol production compared to subcutaneous fat in this population.

Applicability of a prognostic CT-based radiomic signature model trained on stage I-III non-small cell lung cancer in stage IV non-small cell lung cancer.

OBJECTIVES: Recently it has been shown that radiomic features of computed tomography (CT) have prognostic information in stage I-III non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. We aim to validate this prognostic radiomic signature in stage IV adenocarcinoma patients undergoing chemotherapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two datasets of chemo-naive stage IV adenocarcinoma patients were investigated, dataset 1: 285 patients with CTs performed in a single center; dataset 2: 223 patients included in a multicenter clinical trial. The main exclusion criteria were EGFR mutation or unknown mutation status and non-delineated primary tumor. Radiomic features were calculated for the primary tumor. The c-index of cox regression was calculated and compared to the signature performance for overall survival (OS). RESULTS: In total CT scans from 195 patients were eligible for analysis. Patients having a prognostic index (PI) lower than the signature median (n = 92) had a significantly better OS than patients with a PI higher than the median (n = 103, HR 1.445, 95% CI 1.07-1.95, p = 0.02, c-index 0.576, 95% CI 0.527-0.624). CONCLUSION: The radiomic signature, derived from daily practice CT scans, has prognostic value for stage IV NSCLC, however the signature performs less than previously described for stage I-III NSCLC stages. In the future, machine learning techniques can potentially lead to a better prognostic imaging based model for stage IV NSCLC.

A Deep Look Into the Future of Quantitative Imaging in Oncology: A Statement of Working Principles and Proposal for Change.

The adoption of enterprise digital imaging, along with the development of quantitative imaging methods and the re-emergence of statistical learning, has opened the opportunity for more personalized cancer treatments through transformative data science research. In the last 5 years, accumulating evidence has indicated that noninvasive advanced imaging analytics (i.e., radiomics) can reveal key components of tumor phenotype for multiple lesions at multiple time points over the course of treatment. Many groups using homegrown software have extracted engineered and deep quantitative features on 3-dimensional medical images for better spatial and longitudinal understanding of tumor biology and for the prediction of diverse outcomes. These developments could augment patient stratification and prognostication, buttressing emerging targeted therapeutic approaches. Unfortunately, the rapid growth in popularity of this immature scientific discipline has resulted in many early publications that miss key information or use underpowered patient data sets, without production of generalizable results. Quantitative imaging research is complex, and key principles should be followed to realize its full potential. The fields of quantitative imaging and radiomics in particular require a renewed focus on optimal study design and reporting practices, standardization, interpretability, data sharing, and clinical trials. Standardization of image acquisition, feature calculation, and statistical analysis (i.e., machine learning) are required for the field to move forward. A new data-sharing paradigm enacted among open and diverse participants (medical institutions, vendors and associations) should be embraced for faster development and comprehensive clinical validation of imaging biomarkers. In this review and critique of the field, we propose working principles and fundamental changes to the current scientific approach, with the goal of high-impact research and development of actionable prediction models that will yield more meaningful applications of precision cancer medicine.

Pre-treatment CT radiomics to predict 3-year overall survival following chemoradiotherapy of esophageal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Radiomic features retrieved from standard CT-images have shown prognostic power in several tumor sites. In this study, we investigated the prognostic value of pretreatment CT radiomic features to predict overall survival of esophageal cancer patients after chemoradiotherapy. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Two datasets of independent centers were analyzed, consisting of esophageal cancer patients treated with concurrent chemotherapy (Carboplatin/Paclitaxel) and 41.4Gy radiotherapy, followed by surgery if feasible. In total, 1049 radiomic features were calculated from the primary tumor volume. Recursive feature elimination was performed to select the 40 most relevant predictors. Using these 40 features and six clinical variables as input, two random forest (RF) models predicting 3-year overall survival were developed. RESULTS: In total 165 patients from center 1 and 74 patients from center 2 were used. The radiomics-based RF model yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.69 (95%CI 0.61-0.77), with the top-5 most important features for 3-year survival describing tumor heterogeneity after wavelet filtering. In the validation dataset, the RF model yielded an AUC of 0.61 (95%CI 0.47-0.75). Kaplan Meier plots were significantly different between risk groups in the training dataset (p = .027) and borderline significant in the validation dataset (p = .053). The clinical RF model yielded AUCs of 0.63 (95%CI 0.54-0.71) and 0.62 (95%CI 0.49-0.76) in the training and validation dataset, respectively. Risk groups did not reach a significant correlation with pathological response in the primary tumor. CONCLUSIONS: A RF model predicting 3-year overall survival based on pretreatment CT radiomic features was developed and validated in two independent datasets of esophageal cancer patients. The radiomics model had better prognostic power compared to the model using standard clinical variables.