Drivers and implications of alternative routes to fuels decarbonization in net-zero energy systems.

Energy transition scenarios are characterized by increasing electrification and improving efficiency of energy end uses, rapid decarbonization of the electric power sector, and deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies to offset remaining emissions. Although hydrocarbon fuels typically decline in such scenarios, significant volumes remain in many scenarios even at the time of net-zero emissions. While scenarios rely on different approaches for decarbonizing remaining fuels, the underlying drivers for these differences are unclear. Here we develop several illustrative net-zero systems in a simple structural energy model and show that, for a given set of final energy demands, assumptions about the use of biomass and CO2 sequestration drive key differences in how emissions from remaining fuels are mitigated. Limiting one resource may increase reliance on another, implying that decisions about using or restricting resources in pursuit of net-zero objectives could have significant tradeoffs that will need to be evaluated and managed.

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of CO2-Enabled Sedimentary Basin Geothermal.

The expansion of renewable energy and the large-scale deployment of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) can decarbonize the power sector. The use of CO2 to extract geothermal heat from naturally porous and permeable sedimentary basins to generate electricity (CO2-plume geothermal (CPG) system) presents an opportunity to simultaneously generate renewable energy and geologically store CO2. In this study, we estimate the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts of CPG systems through 12 scenarios in which CPG systems are combined with one of six CO2 sources (e.g., bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and iron and steel facilities) and operate in two geological settings. We find the life cycle GHG emissions of CPG systems ranging from -0.25 to -6.18 kg CO2eq/kWh. CPG systems can achieve the highest emissions reductions when utilizing the CO2 captured from BECCS. We evaluate uncertainty through a Monte Carlo simulation, demonstrating consistent net reductions in life cycle emissions and a local, one-parameter-at-a-time sensitivity analysis that identifies the CO2 capture capacity as the high-impact parameter of the results. Through the production of electricity, CPG systems can provide additional environmental benefits to the deployment of large-scale CCS.

Tapping the Unused Energy Potential of Solar Water Pumps in India.

India seeks to deploy millions of solar water pumps to farmers who often lack access to electricity or face an unreliable power supply. Improving the use of this technology can bolster sustainable agriculture and expand clean energy services. We investigate farm-level impacts and opportunities with primary survey data (n = 292 farmers) and a large real-time pump operational data set (n = 1106 pumps). By modeling the potential solar generation of off-grid solar water pumps, we estimate 300-400 kWh/month of unutilized solar energy per pumping system, representing up to 95% of potential generation. While farmers report increased revenues and ease of pump operation, unsolved challenges concerning the lack of panel cleaning and tracking remain. Pump operational data show pump usage in the summer and monsoon seasons and an expansion of irrigation to grow crops in the winter. Relative to emissions associated with the use of diesel pumps, solar pumps that are highly utilized reduced life cycle CO2-eq emissions by 93% on average, while the pumping systems with the lowest use result in a net increase of 26% relative to the diesel alternatives. Based on observed usage rates, approximately 70% of pumps had positive environmental benefits. The high share of unutilized solar energy provides a significant opportunity to use the energy for nonpumping purposes.

The Health and Climate Benefits of Economic Dispatch in China's Power System.

China's power system is highly regulated and uses an "equal-share" dispatch approach. However, market mechanisms are being introduced to reduce generation costs and improve system reliability. Here, we quantify the climate and human health impacts brought about by this transition, modeling China's power system operations under economic dispatch. We find that significant reductions in mortality related to air pollution (11%) and CO2 emissions (3%) from the power sector can be attained by economic dispatch, relative to the equal-share approach, through more efficient coal-powered generation. Additional health and climate benefits can be achieved by incorporating emission externalities in electricity generation costs. However, the benefits of the transition to economic dispatch will be unevenly distributed across China and may lead to increased health damage in some regions. Our results show the potential of dispatch decision-making in electricity generation to mitigate the negative impacts of power plant emissions with existing facilities in China.

The promise of coupling geologic CO2 storage with sedimentary basin geothermal power generation.

Achieving ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require technological advances and cost reductions in dispatchable carbon-free power generation sources that can provide load following flexibility to integrate high penetrations of variable wind and solar power. Several other sectors may be difficult to decarbonize and a net-zero or net-negative carbon economy may require the deployment of geologic carbon dioxide (CO2) storage. Utilizing CO2 as a working fluid for geothermal energy production and energy storage can achieve both goals: isolating CO2 from the atmosphere and providing valuable power system services to enable high penetrations of variable carbon-free electricity production. The use of CO2 as a working fluid facilitates access to low-grade heat in sedimentary basins, which are widely available and could allow for strategic citing near CO2 sources or where power system flexibility is needed. In this perspective piece, we summarize the state of knowledge for sedimentary basin CO2-geothermal, sometimes referred to as CO2 plume geothermal, and explore how it could support decarbonization of the energy sector. We also present the potential for using geologically stored CO2 for bulk energy storage which could provide valuable time-shifting and other services to the power grid. We explore the promise and challenges of these technologies, identify key research gaps, and offer a critical appraisal of the role that policy for a technology at the intersection of renewable energy, energy storage, and geologic CO2 storage may play in achieving broad deployment.

Diverse Pathways for Power Sector Decarbonization in Texas Yield Health Cobenefits but Fail to Alleviate Air Pollution Exposure Inequities.

Decarbonizing power systems is a critical component of climate change mitigation, which can have public health cobenefits by reducing air pollution. Many studies have examined strategies to decarbonize power grids and quantified their health cobenefits. However, few of them focus on near-term cobenefits at community levels, while comparing various decarbonization pathways. Here, we use a coupled power system and air quality modeling framework to quantify the costs and benefits of decarbonizing the Texas power grid through a carbon tax; replacing coal with natural gas, solar, or wind; and internalizing human health impacts into operations. Our results show that all decarbonization pathways can result in major reductions in CO2 emissions and public health impacts from power sector emissions, leading to large net benefits when considering the costs to implement these strategies. Operational changes with existing infrastructure can serve as a transitional strategy during the process of replacing coal with renewable energy, which offers the largest benefits. However, we also find that Black and lower-income populations receive disproportionately higher air pollution damages and that none of the examined decarbonization strategies mitigate this disparity. These findings suggest that additional interventions are necessary to mitigate environmental inequity while decarbonizing power grids.

Author Correction: The role of energy storage in deep decarbonization of electricity production.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

The role of energy storage in deep decarbonization of electricity production.

Deep decarbonization of electricity production is a societal challenge that can be achieved with high penetrations of variable renewable energy. We investigate the potential of energy storage technologies to reduce renewable curtailment and CO2 emissions in California and Texas under varying emissions taxes. We show that without energy storage, adding 60 GW of renewables to California achieves 72% CO2 reductions (relative to a zero-renewables case) with close to one third of renewables being curtailed. Some energy storage technologies, on the other hand, allow 90% CO2 reductions from the same renewable penetrations with as little as 9% renewable curtailment. In Texas, the same renewable-deployment level leads to 54% emissions reductions with close to 3% renewable curtailment. Energy storage can allow 57% emissions reductions with as little as 0.3% renewable curtailment. We also find that generator flexibility can reduce curtailment and the amount of energy storage that is needed for renewable integration.

Quantifying the Urban Food-Energy-Water Nexus: The Case of the Detroit Metropolitan Area.

The efficient provision of food, energy, and water (FEW) resources to cities is challenging around the world. Because of the complex interdependence of urban FEW systems, changing components of one system may lead to ripple effects on other systems. However, the inputs, intersectoral flows, stocks, and outputs of these FEW resources from the perspective of an integrated urban FEW system have not been synthetically characterized. Therefore, a standardized and specific accounting method to describe this system is needed to sustainably manage these FEW resources. Using the Detroit Metropolitan Area (DMA) as a case, this study developed such an accounting method by using material and energy flow analysis to quantify this urban FEW nexus. Our results help identify key processes for improving FEW resource efficiencies of the DMA. These include (1) optimizing the dietary habits of households to improve phosphorus use efficiency, (2) improving effluent-disposal standards for nitrogen removal to reduce nitrogen emission levels, (3) promoting adequate fertilization, and (4) enhancing the maintenance of wastewater collection pipelines. With respect to water use, better efficiency of thermoelectric power plants can help reduce water withdrawals. The method used in this study lays the ground for future urban FEW analyses and modeling.

Use-Phase Drives Lithium-Ion Battery Life Cycle Environmental Impacts When Used for Frequency Regulation.

Battery storage systems are attractive alternatives to conventional generators for frequency regulation due to their fast response time, high cycle efficiency, flexible scale, and decreasing cost. However, their implementation does not consistently reduce environmental impacts. To assess these impacts, we employed a life cycle assessment (LCA) framework. Our framework couples cradle-to-gate and end-of-life LCA data on lithium-ion batteries with a unit commitment and dispatch model. The model is run on a 9-bus power system with energy storage used for frequency regulation. The addition of energy storage changes generator commitment and dispatch, causing changes in the quantities of each fuel type consumed. This results in increased environmental impacts in most scenarios. The impacts caused by the changes in the power system operation (i.e., use-phase impacts) outweigh upstream and end-of-life impacts in the majority of scenarios analyzed with the magnitude most influenced by electricity mix and fuel price. Of parameters specific to the battery, round trip efficiency has the greatest effect.

Comparative Assessment of Models and Methods To Calculate Grid Electricity Emissions.

Due to the complexity of power systems, tracking emissions attributable to a specific electrical load is a daunting challenge but essential for many environmental impact studies. Currently, no consensus exists on appropriate methods for quantifying emissions from particular electricity loads. This paper reviews a wide range of the existing methods, detailing their functionality, tractability, and appropriate use. We identified and reviewed 32 methods and models and classified them into two distinct categories: empirical data and relationship models and power system optimization models. To illustrate the impact of method selection, we calculate the CO2 combustion emissions factors associated with electric-vehicle charging using 10 methods at nine charging station locations around the United States. Across the methods, we found an up to 68% difference from the mean CO2 emissions factor for a given charging site among both marginal and average emissions factors and up to a 63% difference from the average across average emissions factors. Our results underscore the importance of method selection and the need for a consensus on approaches appropriate for particular loads and research questions being addressed in order to achieve results that are more consistent across studies and allow for soundly supported policy decisions. The paper addresses this issue by offering a set of recommendations for determining an appropriate model type on the basis of the load characteristics and study objectives.

Twelve Principles for Green Energy Storage in Grid Applications.

The introduction of energy storage technologies to the grid could enable greater integration of renewables, improve system resilience and reliability, and offer cost effective alternatives to transmission and distribution upgrades. The integration of energy storage systems into the electrical grid can lead to different environmental outcomes based on the grid application, the existing generation mix, and the demand. Given this complexity, a framework is needed to systematically inform design and technology selection about the environmental impacts that emerge when considering energy storage options to improve sustainability performance of the grid. To achieve this, 12 fundamental principles specific to the design and grid application of energy storage systems are developed to inform policy makers, designers, and operators. The principles are grouped into three categories: (1) system integration for grid applications, (2) the maintenance and operation of energy storage, and (3) the design of energy storage systems. We illustrate the application of each principle through examples published in the academic literature, illustrative calculations, and a case study with an off-grid application of vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs). In addition, trade-offs that can emerge between principles are highlighted.

Emissions reductions from expanding state-level renewable portfolio standards.

In the United States, state-level Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) have served as key drivers for the development of new renewable energy. This research presents a method to evaluate emissions reductions and costs attributable to new or expanded RPS programs by integrating a comprehensive economic dispatch model and a renewable project selection model. The latter model minimizes incremental RPS costs, accounting for renewable power purchase agreements (PPAs), displaced generation and capacity costs, and net changes to a state's imports and exports. We test this method on potential expansions to Michigan's RPS, evaluating target renewable penetrations of 10% (business as usual or BAU), 20%, 25%, and 40%, with varying times to completion. Relative to the BAU case, these expanded RPS policies reduce the CO2 intensity of generation by 13%, 18%, and 33% by 2035, respectively. SO2 emissions intensity decreased by 13%, 20%, and 34% for each of the three scenarios, while NOx reductions totaled 12%, 17%, and 31%, relative to the BAU case. For CO2 and NOx, absolute reductions in emissions intensity were not as large due to an increasing trend in emissions intensity in the BAU case driven by load growth. Over the study period (2015 to 2035), the absolute CO2 emissions intensity increased by 1% in the 20% RPS case and decreased by 6% and 22% for the 25% and 40% cases, respectively. Between 26% and 31% of the CO2, SO2, and NOx emissions reductions attributable to the expanded RPS occur in neighboring states, underscoring the challenges quantifying local emissions reductions from state-level energy policies with an interconnected grid. Without federal subsidies, the cost of CO2 mitigation using an RPS in Michigan is between $28 and $34/t CO2 when RPS targets are met. The optimal renewable build plan is sensitive to the capacity credit for solar but insensitive to the value for wind power.