Clinical characterisation and long-term survival of paediatric and juvenile lymphoma in cats: 33 cases (2008-2022).

OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were to describe the clinical presentation, tumour characteristics, responses to chemotherapy protocols and toxicity in a cohort of cats with lymphoma up to 18 months of age. In addition, the probability of long-term (>2 years) survival was explored. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The medical records of client-owned cats aged up to 18 months diagnosed with lymphoma between 2008 and 2022 at five UK-based veterinary referral hospitals were reviewed. RESULTS: Thirty-three cats were included. The most common anatomical forms were mediastinal (42%), disseminated disease (30%) and renal (15%), with all cats having intermediate to large cell lymphoma. Three out of 29 cats tested were positive for FeLV but none for FIV. Twenty-six cats were treated with multi-agent chemotherapy protocols with complete and partial responses seen in 46% and 50% of cats, respectively. For this group, median progression-free survival was 133 days (95% confidence interval [Cl] 67 to 199) and median survival time was 268 days (95% Cl 106 to 430). Complete response to chemotherapy was associated with a longer progression-free survival. Seven cats were considered long-term survivors (>2 years). Chemotherapy was generally well tolerated with none of the long-term survivors suffering from chronic sequelae from cytotoxic treatment. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: Paediatric and juvenile cats with lymphoma showed a high response rate to multi-agent chemotherapy protocols with rare significant toxicities. The presence of long-term survivors may suggest a more favourable outcome in a subset of patients.

Effects of photobiomodulation and caffeine treatment on acute kidney injury in a hypoxic ischemic neonatal rat model.

Hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) occurs in 2-5/1000 births, with acute kidney injury (AKI) occurring in 40%. AKI increases morbidity and mortality. Caffeine, an adenosine receptor antagonist, and photobiomodulation (PBM), working on cytochrome c oxidase, are potential treatments for AKI. To examine effects of caffeine and PBM on AKI in rats, Day 7 pups underwent a HIE intervention (Modified Rice-Vannucci model) replicating pathology observed in humans. Caffeine was administered for 3 days and/or PBM for 5 days following HIE. Weights and urine for biomarkers (NGAL, albumin, KIM-1, osteopontin) were collected prior to HIE, daily post intervention and at sacrifice. Both treatments reduced kidney injury seen on electron microscopy, but not when combined. HIE elevated urinary NGAL and albumin on Days 1-3 post-HIE, before returning to control levels. This elevation was significantly reduced by PBM or caffeine. KIM-1 was significantly elevated for 7 days post-HIE and was reduced by both treatments. Osteopontin was not altered by HIE or the treatments. Treatments, individually but not in combination, improved HIE-induced reductions in the enzymatic activity of mitochondrial complexes II-III. PBM and caffeine also improved weight gain. PBM and caffeine reduces AKI diagnosed by urinary biomarkers and confirmed by EM findings.

Development and validation of a prognostic model for death 30 days after adult emergency laparotomy.

The probability of death after emergency laparotomy varies greatly between patients. Accurate pre-operative risk prediction is fundamental to planning care and improving outcomes. We aimed to develop a model limited to a few pre-operative factors that performed well irrespective of surgical indication: obstruction; sepsis; ischaemia; bleeding; and other. We derived a model with data from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit for patients who had emergency laparotomy between December 2016 and November 2018. We tested the model on patients who underwent emergency laparotomy between December 2018 and November 2019. There were 4077/40,816 (10%) deaths 30 days after surgery in the derivation cohort. The final model had 13 pre-operative variables: surgical indication; age; blood pressure; heart rate; respiratory history; urgency; biochemical markers; anticipated malignancy; anticipated peritoneal soiling; and ASA physical status. The predicted mortality probability deciles ranged from 0.1% to 47%. There were 1888/11,187 deaths in the test cohort. The scaled Brier score, integrated calibration index and concordance for the model were 20%, 0.006 and 0.86, respectively. Model metrics were similar for the five surgical indications. In conclusion, we think that this prognostic model is suitable to support decision-making before emergency laparotomy as well as for risk adjustment for comparing organisations.

Helicobacter pylori Chronic Infection Selects for Effective Colonizers of Metaplastic Glands.

Chronic gastric infection with Helicobacter pylori can lead to progressive tissue changes that culminate in cancer, but how H. pylori adapts to the changing tissue environment during disease development is not fully understood. In a transgenic mouse gastric metaplasia model, we found that strains from unrelated individuals differed in their ability to infect the stomach, to colonize metaplastic glands, and to alter the expression of the metaplasia-associated protein TFF3. H. pylori isolates from different stages of disease from a single individual had differential ability to colonize healthy and metaplastic gastric glands. Exposure to the metaplastic environment selected for high gastric colonization by one of these strains. Complete genome sequencing revealed a unique alteration in the frequency of a variant allele of the putative adhesin sabB, arising from a recombination event with the related sialic acid binding adhesin (SabA) gene. Mutation of sabB in multiple H. pylori strain backgrounds strongly reduced adherence to both normal and metaplastic gastric tissue, and highly attenuated stomach colonization in mice. Thus, the changing gastric environment during disease development promotes bacterial adhesin gene variation associated with enhanced gastric colonization. IMPORTANCE Chronic infection with Helicobacter pylori is the primary risk factor for developing stomach cancer. As disease progresses H. pylori must adapt to a changing host tissue environment that includes induction of new cell fates in the cells that line the stomach. We tested representative H. pylori isolates collected from the same patient during early and later stages of disease in a mouse model where we can rapidly induce disease-associated tissue changes. Only the later-stage H. pylori strains could robustly colonize the diseased stomach environment. We also found that the ability to colonize the diseased stomach was associated with genetic variation in a putative cell surface adhesin gene called sabB. Additional experiments revealed that SabB promotes binding to stomach tissue and is critical for stomach colonization by the late-stage strains. Thus, H. pylori diversifies its genome during disease progression and these genomic changes highlight critical factors for bacterial persistence.

The Safety and Efficacy of Psychedelic-Assisted Therapies for Older Adults: Knowns and Unknowns.

Psychedelics and related compounds have shown efficacy for the treatment of a variety of conditions that are prevalent among older adults, including mood disorders, the psychological distress associated with a serious medical illness, post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and prolonged grief disorder. Psychedelics also have properties that could help provide therapeutic benefits for patients with dementing disorders, as well as promoting personal growth among healthy older adults. This article focuses on psilocybin, a classic psychedelic, and MDMA, a substituted amphetamine with properties similar to classic psychedelics. Both act on the 5HT2A receptor. Psychedelics can be safely administered to healthy adults in controlled conditions. However, both psilocybin and MDMA can increase blood pressure and heart rate, which could be a concern if used in older adults with cardiovascular disease. Very few older adults or patients with serious comorbidities have been included in clinical trials of psychedelics to date, raising the question of how generalizable study results are for the patients that most geropsychiatrists will be treating. Research on the neurophysiologic and mechanistic effects of psychedelics in older adults could also provide insights into the aging brain that could have clinical applications in the future. Given the potential of psychedelic compounds to benefit older adults, more research is needed to establish safety and efficacy among older adults, particularly those with multi-morbidity.

Tracking NSZD mass removal rates over decades: Site-wide and local scale assessment of mass removal at a legacy petroleum site.

Long-term estimates of natural source zone depletion (NSZD) rates for petroleum LNAPL (light non-aqueous phase liquid) sites are not available. One-off measurements are often thought valid over the lifetime of LNAPL sites. In the context of site-wide LNAPL mass estimates, we report site-specific gasoline and diesel NSZD rates spanning 21-26 years. Using depth profiles of soil gases (oxygen, carbon dioxide, methane, volatiles) above LNAPL, NSZD rates were estimated in 1994, 2006 and 2020 for diesel and 1999, 2009 and 2020 for gasoline. Each date also had soil-core mass estimates, which together with NSZD rates allow estimation of the longevity for LNAPL presence. Site-wide coring (in 1992, 2002, 2007) estimated LNAPL mass reductions of 12,000 t. For diesel NSZD, the ratio of NSZD rates for 2006 (16,000-49,000 L/ha/y) to those in 2020 (2600-14,000 L/ha/y) was ~3-6. By 2020, the 1994 diesel NSZD rates would have predicted the entire removal of measured mass (16-42 kg/m2). For gasoline, NSZD rates in 1999 were extremely high (50,000-270,000 L/ha/y) but 9-27 times lower (5800-10,000 L/ha/y) a decade later. The gasoline NSZD rates in 1999 predicted near complete mass removal in 2-12 years, but 10-11 kg/m2 was measured 10 and 21 years later which is 26% of the initial mass in 1999. The outcomes substantiate the need to understand NSZD rate changes over the lifetime of LNAPL-impacted sites.

Mosquito Magnet® traps as a potential means of monitoring blackflies of medical and veterinary importance.

Mosquito Magnet® traps, deployed in widespread parts of England as part of nationwide mosquito surveillance projects, also caught blackflies. As many as 1242 blackflies were caught in a trapping session lasting 4 days. Principal among the species caught were Simulium equinum, Simulium lineatum and Simulium ornatum s.l. As S. ornatum s.l. is a vector that transmits Onchocerca linealis to cattle and S. equinum is responsible for dermatitis ('sweet itch') in cattle and horses, it is suggested that Mosquito Magnet® traps could be used to monitor and partially control these pests, as well as nuisance anthropophilic blackflies such as Simulium posticatum that can cause simuliidosis in southern England.

Investigations into the synthesis of a nucleotide dimer via mechanochemical phosphoramidite chemistry.

Liquid-assisted mechanochemistry as a versatile approach for the coupling of a nucleoside phosphoramidite with a 5'-OH partially protected nucleoside has been investigated. Noted advantages over reported methods were a simplified reaction protocol, a drastic reduction in the use of toxic solvents, the facilitation of mechanochemical reactions through the improved mixing of solid reagents, and low hydrolytic product formation.

Phosphorus stocks and flows in an intensive livestock dominated food system.

Current use and management of phosphorus (P) in our food systems is considered unsustainable and considerable improvements in the efficiency of P use are required to mitigate the environmental impact of poor P stewardship. The inherent low P use efficiency of food production from animals means food systems dominated by livestock agriculture can pose unique challenges for improving P management. This paper presents the results of a substance flow analysis for P in the Northern Ireland (NI) food system for the year 2017 as a case study for examining P stewardship in a livestock dominated agricultural system. Imported livestock feed was by far the largest flow of P into the NI food system in 2017 (11,700 t ± 1300 t) and P from livestock excreta the largest internal flow of P (20,400 ± 1900t). The P contained in livestock slurries and manures alone that were returned to agricultural land exceeded total crop and grass P requirement by 20% and were the largest contributor to an annual excess soil P accumulation of 8.5 ± 1.4 kg ha-1. This current livestock driven P surplus also limits the opportunities for P circularity and reuse from other sectors within the food system, e.g. wastewater biosolids and products from food processing waste. Management of livestock P demand (livestock numbers, feed P content) or technological advancements that facilitate the processing and subsequent export of slurries and manures are therefore needed.

Histiocytic sarcoma in miniature schnauzers: 30 cases.

OBJECTIVES: To summarise the clinical presentation and outcomes in a series of miniature schnauzers diagnosed with histiocytic sarcoma. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Retrospective review of medical records of miniature schnauzers diagnosed with histiocytic sarcoma between 2008 and 2019 at two referral centres in the UK. Signalment, clinical signs at initial presentation, imaging results and clinico- and histopathological findings, treatment type and outcome were recorded. Progression-free survival and overall survival time were calculated. RESULTS: Thirty dogs were included. Twenty-four of 29 dogs undergoing imaging of the thorax had lung and/or mediastinal involvement. The median overall survival time for dogs that were not euthanased within 3 days of diagnosis was 117 days (range 10 to 790). Three dogs underwent surgery; 13 received treatment with lomustine as a sole therapy - with partial responses documented on imaging in five of six dogs and 11 of 13 showing clinical improvement. CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE: Histiocytic sarcoma should be considered as a differential diagnosis for miniature schnauzers with pulmonary masses. Although responses to treatment were common, they were usually short-lived because of the aggressive nature of the disease.

Insights Obtained by Culturing Saccharibacteria With Their Bacterial Hosts.

Oral microbiome research has moved from asking "Who's there?" to "What are they doing?" Understanding what microbes "do" involves multiple approaches, including obtaining genomic information and examining the interspecies interactions. Recently we isolated a human oral Saccharibacteria (TM7) bacterium, HMT-952, strain TM7x, which is an ultrasmall parasite of the oral bacterium Actinomyces odontolyticus. The host-parasite interactions, such as phage-bacterium or Saccharibacteria-host bacterium, are understudied areas with large potential for insight. The Saccharibacteria phylum is a member of Candidate Phyla Radiation, a large lineage previously devoid of cultivated members. However, expanding our understanding of Saccharibacteria-host interactions requires examining multiple phylogenetically distinct Saccharibacteria-host pairs. Here we report the isolation of 3 additional Saccharibacteria species from the human oral cavity in binary coculture with their bacterial hosts. They were obtained by filtering ultrasmall Saccharibacteria cells free of other larger bacteria and inoculating them into cultures of potential host bacteria. The binary cocultures obtained could be stably passaged and studied. Complete closed genomes were obtained and allowed full genome analyses. All have small genomes (<1 Mb) characteristic of parasitic species and dramatically limited de novo synthetic pathway capabilities but include either restriction modification or CRISPR-Cas systems as part of an innate defense against foreign DNA. High levels of gene synteny exist among Saccharibacteria species. Having isolates growing in coculture with their hosts allowed time course studies of growth and parasite-host interactions by phase contrast, fluorescence in situ hybridization, and scanning electron microscopy. The cells of the 4 oral Saccharibacteria species are ultrasmall and could be seen attached to their larger Actinobacteria hosts. Parasite attachment appears to lead to host cell death and lysis. The successful cultivation of Saccharibacteria species has significantly expanded our understanding of these ultrasmall Candidate Phyla Radiation bacteria.

Diagnostic accuracy of SUVmax in predicting malignancy of supraclavicular lymph nodes from primary oesophageal cancer.

PURPOSE: To determine the diagnostic accuracy and optimum cut-off value of SUVmax on PET to predict malignancy of supraclavicular lymph nodes (SCLNs) in patients with oesophageal carcinoma. MATERIAL AND METHODS: All diagnosed cases of oesophageal cancer were retrospectively reviewed (2010-2016). Patients that had a confirmed diagnosis of oesophageal cancer with avid SCLNs on staging PET were included in the study. 33 SCLNs that subsequently underwent ultrasound guided biopsy for staging were analysed. The maximum uptake values (SUVmax) of the SCLNs and primary tumours were measured. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to determine the optimum cut off of SUVmax in predicting malignancy. RESULTS: 24/33 PET-detected SCLNs were malignant. ROC analysis identified the best nodal SUVmax cut-off to be 3.0. The diagnostic accuracy of PET was 76.0 % (sensitivity = 78.9 %, specificity = 66.6 %). For SCLNs with SUVmax > 3.0, PET showed a positive predictor value of 88.2 %; for SCLNs < 3.0, PET showed a negative predictor value of 50 %. The median SUVmax of pathologically negative and positive nodes were 2.8 (range 1.8-6.0) and 5.3 (range 1.9-13.4). The median primary tumour SUVmax was 13.8 (range 3.7-30.0). The SUVmax of metastatic lymph nodes were significant higher than those of benign lesions (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Our study revealed an accuracy rate of 76 % for PET detected SCLNs in patients with oesophageal carcinoma. For SCLNs with SUVmax > 3.0, PET had a high PPV (88 %), which can minimize the need for further diagnostic tests.

Health Care Workers and Patients as Trojan Horses: a COVID19 ward outbreak.

BACKGROUND: Transmission in healthcare settings can result in significant infections in healthcare workers and patients. Understanding infection dynamics has important implications for methods employed in hospitals to prevent nosocomial transmission events. METHODS: In this case series report we describe a cluster of COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) in a tertiary care university hospital, in the early phases of the epidemic, after hospital visiting had been stopped and when the UK lockdown was in place. FINDINGS: A 48 year old patient developed COVID-19 31 days post-admission and four days after admission to a medical ward from ITU. Infection was likely acquired from an asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic healthcare worker (HCW). Subsequent investigation over a 14 day period revealed symptoms in 23 staff members and five linked cases in patients on the same ward.Nine of the 23 affected staff members provided care for and had direct exposure with the index case. Four staff reported caring for the index case without use of personal protective equipment. One was coughed on directly by the patient 24 hours prior to the onset of symptoms. CONCLUSION: SARS CoV2 infection can be introduced to a ward area by asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic healthcare workers. Staff members and patients can act as Trojan horses carrying infection into and around the hospital, setting up unexpected transmission events.Transmission of infection from pre-symptomatic, asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic individuals means that universal use of measures to prevent transmission is required for successful reduction of transmission events in the hospital setting.

Cardiac pacing using transmural multi-LED probes in channelrhodopsin-expressing mouse hearts.

Optogenetics enables cell-type specific monitoring and actuation via light-activated proteins. In cardiac research, expressing light-activated depolarising ion channels in cardiomyocytes allows optical pacing and defibrillation. Previous studies largely relied on epicardial illumination. Light penetration through the myocardium is however problematic when moving to larger animals and humans. To overcome this limitation, we assessed the utility of an implantable multi light-emitting diode (LED) optical probe (IMLOP) for intramural pacing of mouse hearts expressing cardiac-specific channelrhodopsin-2 (ChR2). Here we demonstrated that IMLOP insertion needs approximately 20 mN of force, limiting possible damage from excessive loads applied during implantation. Histological sections confirmed the confined nature of tissue damage during acute use. The temperature change of the surrounding tissue was below 1 K during LED operation, rendering the probe safe for use in situ. This was confirmed in control experiments where no effect on cardiac action potential conduction was observed even when using stimulation parameters twenty-fold greater than required for pacing. In situ experiments on ChR2-expressing mouse hearts demonstrated that optical stimulation is possible with light intensities as low as 700 µW/mm2; although stable pacing requires higher intensities. When pacing with a single LED, rheobase and chronaxie values were 13.3 mW/mm2 ± 0.9 mW/mm2 and 3 ms ± 0.6 ms, respectively. When doubling the stimulated volume the rheobase decreased significantly (6.5 mW/mm2 ± 0.9 mW/mm2). We have demonstrated IMLOP-based intramural optical pacing of the heart. Probes cause locally constrained tissue damage in the acute setting and require low light intensities for pacing. Further development is necessary to assess effects of chronic implantation.

Sustained efficacy of kangaroo care for repeated painful procedures over neonatal intensive care unit hospitalization: a single-blind randomized controlled trial.

Preterm neonates hospitalized in the neonatal intensive care unit undergo frequent painful procedures daily, often without pain treatment, with associated long-term adverse effects. Maternal-infant skin-to-skin contact, or kangaroo care (KC), and sweet-tasting solutions such as sucrose are effective strategies to reduce pain during a single procedure; however, evidence of sustained efficacy over repeated procedures is limited. We aimed to determine the relative sustained efficacy of maternal KC, administered alone or in combination with 24% sucrose, to reduce behavioral pain intensity associated with routine neonatal procedures, compared with 24% sucrose alone. Stable preterm infants (n = 242) were randomized to receive KC and water, KC and 24% sucrose, or 24% sucrose before all routine painful procedures throughout their neonatal intensive care unit stay. Pain intensity, determined using the Premature Infant Pain Profile, was measured during 3 medically indicated heel lances distributed across hospitalization. Maternal and neonatal baseline characteristics, Premature Infant Pain Profile scores at 30, 60, or 90 seconds after heel lance, the distribution of infants with pain scores suggesting mild, moderate, or severe pain, Neurobehavioral Assessment of the Preterm Infant scores, and incidence of adverse outcomes were not statistically significantly different between groups. Maternal KC, as a pain-relieving intervention, remained efficacious over time and repeated painful procedures without evidence of any harm or neurological impact. It seemed to be equally effective as 24% oral sucrose, and the combination of maternal KC and sucrose did not seem to provide additional benefit, challenging the existing recommendation of using sucrose as the primary standard of care.

Recombination of the Phase-Variable spnIII Locus Is Independent of All Known Pneumococcal Site-Specific Recombinases.

Streptococcus pneumoniae is one of the world's leading bacterial pathogens, causing pneumonia, septicemia, and meningitis. In recent years, it has been shown that genetic rearrangements in a type I restriction-modification system (SpnIII) can impact colony morphology and gene expression. By generating a large panel of mutant strains, we have confirmed a previously reported result that the CreX (also known as IvrR and PsrA) recombinase found within the locus is not essential for hsdS inversions. In addition, mutants of homologous recombination pathways also undergo hsdS inversions. In this work, we have shown that these genetic rearrangements, which result in different patterns of genome methylation, occur across a wide variety of serotypes and sequence types, including two strains (a 19F and a 6B strain) naturally lacking CreX. Our gene expression analysis, by transcriptome sequencing (RNAseq), confirms that the level of creX expression is impacted by these genomic rearrangements. In addition, we have shown that the frequency of hsdS recombination is temperature dependent. Most importantly, we have demonstrated that the other known pneumococcal site-specific recombinases XerD, XerS, and SPD_0921 are not involved in spnIII recombination, suggesting that a currently unknown mechanism is responsible for the recombination of these phase-variable type I systems.IMPORTANCEStreptococcus pneumoniae is a leading cause of pneumonia, septicemia, and meningitis. The discovery that genetic rearrangements in a type I restriction-modification locus can impact gene regulation and colony morphology led to a new understanding of how this pathogen switches from harmless colonizer to invasive pathogen. These rearrangements, which alter the DNA specificity of the type I restriction-modification enzyme, occur across many different pneumococcal serotypes and sequence types and in the absence of all known pneumococcal site-specific recombinases. This finding suggests that this is a truly global mechanism of pneumococcal gene regulation and the need for further investigation of mechanisms of site-specific recombination.

Pain in Child Health from 2002 to 2015: The early years of an international research training initiative.

Background: The 2018 Global Year for Excellence in Pain Education, an initiative of the International Association for the Study of Pain, brought worldwide attention to the need for education that crosses narrow disciplinary boundaries, addresses up-to-date research methods and findings, and encourages teamwork among trainees and mentors at different levels of training and with different perspectives. Aims: This commentary describes the development of Pain in Child Health (PICH), an interdisciplinary training program for researchers in pediatric pain at the undergraduate, graduate, and postdoctoral levels of training. Methods: Based on documentation of the structure, training processes, leadership, and membership of PICH, we outline its organization and its challenges and accomplishments over the first 12 years of its growth into a well-known international program. Results and Conclusions: Pain in Child Health began as a Strategic Training Initiative of the Canadian Institutes of Health Research in 2002 and developed into an international research training consortium featuring cross-site and cross-discipline mentorship and collaboration. PICH trainees and alumni have contributed extensively to the current scientific literature on children's pain. PICH could serve as a possible model for training and mentorship in other specialized health research domains within and outside thestudy of pain.

Contexte: En 2018, l'Année internationale pour l'excellence en éducation sur la douleur, une initiative de l'Association internationale pour l'étude de la douleur, a attiré l'attention partout dans le monde sur l'importance d'une éducation qui transcende les frontières étroites entre les disciplines, qui aborde les méthodes et les résultats de la recherche les plus actuels et qui encourage le travail d'équipe parmi les apprenants et les mentors à différents niveaux de formation et à partir de différentes perspectives.But: Ce commentaire décrit l'évolution de Pain in Child Heath (PICH), un programme de formation interdisciplinaire destiné aux chercheurs en douleur pédiatrique à tous les niveaux de formation : premier cycle, cycles supérieurs et postdoctoral.Méthodes: À partir de la documentation portant sur la structure, les processus de formation, le leadership et les caractéristiques des membres du PICH, nous décrivons son organisation, ses difficultés et ses accomplissements au cours de ses premiers douze ans, jusqu'à ce qu'il devienne un programme international de renom.Résultats et conclusions: À ses débuts, Pain in Child Health était une initiative de formation stratégique des Instituts de recherche en santé du Canada en 2002. Il s'est par la suite transformé en consortium international de formation à la recherche axé sur le mentorat et la collaboration entre différents sites et différentes disciplines. Les étudiants et les anciens du PICH ont largement contribué à la littérature scientifique sur la douleur pédiatrique. Le PICH pourrait possiblement servir de modèle en matière de formation et de mentorat dans d'autres domaines de recherche spécialisée en santé, que ce soit dans le contexte de l'étude de la douleur ou dans un autre contexte.

Development and internal validation of a novel risk adjustment model for adult patients undergoing emergency laparotomy surgery: the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit risk model.

BACKGROUND: Among patients undergoing emergency laparotomy, 30-day postoperative mortality is around 10-15%. The risk of death among these patients, however, varies greatly because of their clinical characteristics. We developed a risk prediction model for 30-day postoperative mortality to enable better comparison of outcomes between hospitals. METHODS: We analysed data from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) on patients having an emergency laparotomy between December 2013 and November 2015. A prediction model was developed using multivariable logistic regression, with potential risk factors identified from existing prediction models, national guidelines, and clinical experts. Continuous risk factors were transformed if necessary to reflect their non-linear relationship with 30-day mortality. The performance of the model was assessed in terms of its calibration and discrimination. Interval validation was conducted using bootstrap resampling. RESULTS: There were 4458 (11.5%) deaths within 30-days among the 38 830 patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. Variables associated with death included (among others): age, blood pressure, heart rate, physiological variables, malignancy, and ASA physical status classification. The predicted risk of death among patients ranged from 1% to 50%. The model demonstrated excellent calibration and discrimination, with a C-statistic of 0.863 (95% confidence interval, 0.858-0.867). The model retained its high discrimination during internal validation, with a bootstrap derived C-statistic of 0.861. CONCLUSIONS: The NELA risk prediction model for emergency laparotomies discriminates well between low- and high-risk patients and is suitable for producing risk-adjusted provider mortality statistics.