Predicting unplanned hospitalisations in older adults using routinely recorded general practice data.

BACKGROUND: Unplanned hospitalisations represent a hazardous event for older persons. Timely identification of high-risk individuals using a prediction tool may facilitate preventive interventions. AIM: To develop and validate an easy-to-use prediction model for unplanned hospitalisations in community-dwelling older adults using readily available data to allow rapid bedside assessment by general practitioners. DESIGN AND SETTING: Retrospective study using general practice electronic health records of 243,129 community-dwelling adults aged ≥65 years linked with national administrative data. METHODS: The dataset was geographically split into a development (58.7%) and validation (41.3%) sample to predict unplanned hospitalisations within 6 months. We evaluated the performance of three different models with increasingly smaller selections of candidate predictors (i.e. optimal, readily-available and easy-to-use model, respectively). We used logistic regression with backward selection for model development. The models were validated internally and externally. We assessed predictive performance by area under the curve (AUC) and calibration plots. RESULTS: In both samples, 7.6% had at least one unplanned hospitalisation within 6 months. The discriminative ability of the three models was comparable and remained stable after geographic validation. The easy-to-use model included age, sex, prior hospitalisations, pulmonary emphysema, heart failure and polypharmacy. Its discriminative ability after validation was AUC 0.72 [95% confidence interval: 0.72-0.71]. Calibration plots showed good calibration. CONCLUSION: Our models showed satisfactory predictive ability. Reducing the number of predictors and geographic validation did not impact predictive performance, demonstrating the robustness of the model. We developed an easy-to-use tool that may assist general practitioners in decision-making and targeted preventive interventions.

Urinary Tract Infection Guideline Adherence in a Dutch Sentinel Nursing Home Surveillance Network.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate guideline adherence 3 years after the introduction of a national guideline on urinary tract infections (UTIs) in frail older adults. Appropriate use of urine dipstick tests, treatment decisions, and antibiotic drug choices in residents with (suspected) UTIs without a catheter were examined. DESIGN: Observational prospective study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Nineteen nursing homes participating in a Dutch Sentinel Nursing Home Surveillance Network. METHODS: As of September 2021, for a 3-month period, medical practitioners recorded additional clinical information in the electronic health record in case of a (suspected) UTI. Based on this information, adherence to guideline recommendations was assessed. Nonadherence was classified into 2 categories: (1) "intentional nonadherence" as reported by practitioners and (2) "nonadherence otherwise" applied to all other cases where the recorded information was discordant with the guideline recommendations. RESULTS: A total of 532 cases of (suspected) UTIs from 469 residents were analyzed. In 455 cases (86%), dipsticks were used. For the 231 cases where clinical signs and symptoms already indicated no UTI treatment according to the guideline, a dipstick was still inappropriately ordered in 196 cases (85%). The decision to prescribe or withhold antibiotics was in 69% of the cases adherent, in 6% intentionally nonadherent, and in 25% nonadherent otherwise. The type of prescribed antibiotic was adherent to the recommended antibiotics for cystitis in 88% and for UTIs with signs of tissue invasion in 48%. Overall, for 40% of suspected UTIs, adherence to all relevant recommendations could be established, and in 9% practitioners reported intentional nonadherence to the guideline. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: There is considerable room for improvement in all clinical stages of managing a suspected UTI in Dutch nursing homes, particularly with regard to the importance of patient's clinical signs and symptoms for appropriate dipstick use and antibiotic UTI treatments.

The effect of current antithrombotic therapy on mortality in nursing home residents with COVID-19: a multicentre retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The first wave of COVID led to an alarmingly high mortality rate among nursing home residents (NHRs). In hospitalised patients, the use of anticoagulants may be associated with a favourable prognosis. However, it is unknown whether the use of antithrombotic medication also protected NHRs from COVID-19-related mortality. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the effect of current antithrombotic therapy in NHRs with COVID-19 on 30-day all-cause mortality during the first COVID-19 wave. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study linking electronic health records and pharmacy data in NHRs with COVID-19. A propensity score was used to match NHRs with current use of therapeutic dose anticoagulants to NHRs not using anticoagulant medication. The primary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality, which was evaluated using a logistic regression model. In a secondary analysis, multivariable logistic regression was performed in the complete study group to compare NHRs with current use of therapeutic dose anticoagulants and those with current use of antiplatelet therapy to those without such medication. RESULTS: We included 3521 NHRs with COVID-19 based on a positive RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 or with a well-defined clinical suspicion of COVID-19. In the matched propensity score analysis, NHRs with current use of therapeutic dose anticoagulants had a significantly lower all-cause mortality (OR = 0.73; 95% CI: 0.58-0.92) compared to NHRs who did not use therapeutic anticoagulants. In the secondary analysis, current use of therapeutic dose anticoagulants (OR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.48-0.82) and current use of antiplatelet therapy (OR 0.80; 95% CI: 0.64-0.99) were both associated with decreased mortality. CONCLUSIONS: During the first COVID-19 wave, therapeutic anticoagulation and antiplatelet use were associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality in NHRs. Whether these potentially protective effects are maintained in vaccinated patients or patients with other COVID-19 variants, remains unknown.

Lessons learned from the development of a national registry on dementia care and support based on linked national health and administrative data.

Introduction: This paper provides insight into the development of the Dutch Dementia Care and Support Registry and the lessons that can be learned from it. The aim of this Registry was to contribute to quality improvement in dementia care and support. Methods: This paper describes how the Registry was set up in four stages, reflecting the four FAIR principles: the selection of data sources (Findability); obtaining access to the selected data sources (Accessibility); data linkage (Interoperability); and the reuse of data (Reusability). Results: The linkage of 16 different data sources, including national routine health and administrative data appeared to be technically and legally feasible. The linked data in the Registry offers rich information about (the use of) care for persons with dementia across various healthcare settings, including but not limited to primary care, secondary care, long-term care and medication use, that cannot be obtained from single data sources. Conclusions: A key lesson learned is that in order to reuse the data for quality improvement in practice, it is essential to involve healthcare professionals in setting up the Registry and to guide them in the interpretation of the data.

Costs of care trajectories of people with dementia compared with matched controls. Longitudinal analysis of linked health and administrative data.

OBJECTIVES: To provide insight into the health and social care costs during the disease trajectory in persons with dementia and the impact of institutionalization and death on healthcare costs compared with matched persons without dementia. METHODS: Electronic health record data from family physicians were linked with national administrative databases to estimate costs of primary care, medication, secondary care, mental care, home care and institutional care for people with dementia and matched persons from the year before the recorded dementia diagnosis until death or a maximum of 4 years after the diagnosis. RESULTS: Total mean health and social care costs among persons with dementia increased substantially during the disease trajectory, mainly due to institutional care costs. For people who remained living in the community, mean health and social care costs are higher for people with dementia than for those without dementia, while for those who are admitted to a long-term care facility, mean health and social care costs are higher for people without dementia than for those with dementia. CONCLUSIONS: The steep rise in health and social care costs across the dementia care trajectory is mainly due to increasing costs for institutional care. For those remaining in the community, home care costs and hospital care costs were the main cost drivers. Future research should adopt a societal perspective to investigate the influence of including social costs.

External validation of six COVID-19 prognostic models for predicting mortality risk in older populations in a hospital, primary care, and nursing home setting.

OBJECTIVES: To systematically evaluate the performance of COVID-19 prognostic models and scores for mortality risk in older populations across three health-care settings: hospitals, primary care, and nursing homes. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: This retrospective external validation study included 14,092 older individuals of ≥70 years of age with a clinical or polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis from March 2020 to December 2020. The six validation cohorts include three hospital-based (CliniCo, COVID-OLD, COVID-PREDICT), two primary care-based (Julius General Practitioners Network/Academisch network huisartsgeneeskunde/Network of Academic general Practitioners, PHARMO), and one nursing home cohort (YSIS) in the Netherlands. Based on a living systematic review of COVID-19 prediction models using Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool for quality and risk of bias assessment and considering predictor availability in validation cohorts, we selected six prognostic models predicting mortality risk in adults with COVID-19 infection (GAL-COVID-19 mortality, 4C Mortality Score, National Early Warning Score 2-extended model, Xie model, Wang clinical model, and CURB65 score). All six prognostic models were validated in the hospital cohorts and the GAL-COVID-19 mortality model was validated in all three healthcare settings. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality for hospitals and 28-day mortality for primary care and nursing home settings. Model performance was evaluated in each validation cohort separately in terms of discrimination, calibration, and decision curves. An intercept update was performed in models indicating miscalibration followed by predictive performance re-evaluation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: In-hospital mortality for hospitals and 28-day mortality for primary care and nursing home setting. RESULTS: All six prognostic models performed poorly and showed miscalibration in the older population cohorts. In the hospital settings, model performance ranged from calibration-in-the-large -1.45 to 7.46, calibration slopes 0.24-0.81, and C-statistic 0.55-0.71 with 4C Mortality Score performing as the most discriminative and well-calibrated model. Performance across health-care settings was similar for the GAL-COVID-19 model, with a calibration-in-the-large in the range of -2.35 to -0.15 indicating overestimation, calibration slopes of 0.24-0.81 indicating signs of overfitting, and C-statistic of 0.55-0.71. CONCLUSION: Our results show that most prognostic models for predicting mortality risk performed poorly in the older population with COVID-19, in each health-care setting: hospital, primary care, and nursing home settings. Insights into factors influencing predictive model performance in the older population are needed for pandemic preparedness and reliable prognostication of health-related outcomes in this demographic.

The prevalence of non-pharmacological interventions in older homecare recipients: an overview from six European countries.

PURPOSE: Non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) play an important role in the management of older people receiving homecare. However, little is known about how often specific NPIs are being used and to what extent usage varies between countries. The aim of the current study was to investigate the prevalence of NPIs in older homecare recipients in six European countries. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study of older homecare recipients (65+) using baseline data from the longitudinal cohort study 'Identifying best practices for care-dependent elderly by Benchmarking Costs and outcomes of community care' (IBenC). The analyzed NPIs are based on the interRAI Home Care instrument, a comprehensive geriatric assessment instrument. The prevalence of 24 NPIs was analyzed in Belgium, Germany, Finland, Iceland, Italy and the Netherlands. NPIs from seven groups were considered: psychosocial interventions, physical activity, regular care interventions, special therapies, preventive measures, special aids and environmental interventions. RESULTS: A total of 2884 homecare recipients were included. The mean age at baseline was 82.9 years and of all participants, 66.9% were female. The intervention with the highest prevalence in the study sample was 'emergency assistance available' (74%). Two other highly prevalent interventions were 'physical activity' (69%) and 'home nurse' (62%). Large differences between countries in the use of NPIs were observed and included, for example, 'going outside' (range 7-82%), 'home health aids' (range 12-93%), and 'physician visit' (range 24-94%). CONCLUSIONS: The use of NPIs varied considerably between homecare users in different European countries. It is important to better understand the barriers and facilitators of use of these potentially beneficial interventions in order to design successful uptake strategies.

Optimising the care for older persons with complex chronic conditions in home care and nursing homes: design and protocol of I-CARE4OLD, an observational study using real-world data.

INTRODUCTION: In ageing societies, the number of older adults with complex chronic conditions (CCCs) is rapidly increasing. Care for older persons with CCCs is challenging, due to interactions between multiple conditions and their treatments. In home care and nursing homes, where most older persons with CCCs receive care, professionals often lack appropriate decision support suitable and sufficient to address the medical and functional complexity of persons with CCCs. This EU-funded project aims to develop decision support systems using high-quality, internationally standardised, routine care data to support better prognostication of health trajectories and treatment impact among older persons with CCCs. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Real-world data from older persons aged ≥60 years in home care and nursing homes, based on routinely performed comprehensive geriatric assessments using interRAI systems collected in the past 20 years, will be linked with administrative repositories on mortality and care use. These include potentially up to 51 million care recipients from eight countries: Italy, the Netherlands, Finland, Belgium, Canada, USA, Hong Kong and New Zealand. Prognostic algorithms will be developed and validated to better predict various health outcomes. In addition, the modifying impact of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions will be examined. A variety of analytical methods will be used, including techniques from the field of artificial intelligence such as machine learning. Based on the results, decision support tools will be developed and pilot tested among health professionals working in home care and nursing homes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by authorised medical ethical committees in each of the participating countries, and will comply with both local and EU legislation. Study findings will be shared with relevant stakeholders, including publications in peer-reviewed journals and presentations at national and international meetings.

Prevalences and Indications of Psychotropic Drug Prescriptions in Nursing Home Residents with Korsakoff Syndrome.

Psychotropic drugs (PD) are often prescribed to nursing home residents with Korsakoff syndrome (KS). It is unknown whether these drugs are prescribed correctly or whether they are prescribed off-label, for example, to treat behavioral symptoms. To get more insight into PD prescriptions, a descriptive study was performed. The type, category and indications of PD prescriptions of 285 participants were analyzed using medication charts and questionnaires. Behavioral symptoms were investigated with the Neuropsychiatric Inventory-Questionnaire. The results showed that atypical antipsychotics (57.1%) were prescribed more frequently than typical antipsychotics (49.3%). Of the antidepressants, selective serotonin/norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors (63.1%) were most frequently prescribed, followed by tricyclic antidepressants (23.4%). Of the benzodiazepines, anxiolytics (85.7%) were more prescribed than hypnotics (24.5%). Besides psychiatric disorders, PD were also prescribed to treat behavioral symptoms varying from 29.9% (antipsycho-tics) to 26.3% (benzodiazepines) and 9.3% (antidepressants). Furthermore, prescriptions were high if behavioral symptoms were present. To conclude, PD are often prescribed to residents with KS for an unapproved indication, namely behavioral symptoms. Additional research is needed to obtain further insight into the current prescribing culture and the effectiveness of PD. The insights thus obtained may, ultimately, contribute to the appropriate prescription of PD for people with KS.

A study protocol of external validation of eight COVID-19 prognostic models for predicting mortality risk in older populations in a hospital, primary care, and nursing home setting.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has a large impact worldwide and is known to particularly affect the older population. This paper outlines the protocol for external validation of prognostic models predicting mortality risk after presentation with COVID-19 in the older population. These prognostic models were originally developed in an adult population and will be validated in an older population (≥ 70 years of age) in three healthcare settings: the hospital setting, the primary care setting, and the nursing home setting. METHODS: Based on a living systematic review of COVID-19 prediction models, we identified eight prognostic models predicting the risk of mortality in adults with a COVID-19 infection (five COVID-19 specific models: GAL-COVID-19 mortality, 4C Mortality Score, NEWS2 + model, Xie model, and Wang clinical model and three pre-existing prognostic scores: APACHE-II, CURB65, SOFA). These eight models will be validated in six different cohorts of the Dutch older population (three hospital cohorts, two primary care cohorts, and a nursing home cohort). All prognostic models will be validated in a hospital setting while the GAL-COVID-19 mortality model will be validated in hospital, primary care, and nursing home settings. The study will include individuals ≥ 70 years of age with a highly suspected or PCR-confirmed COVID-19 infection from March 2020 to December 2020 (and up to December 2021 in a sensitivity analysis). The predictive performance will be evaluated in terms of discrimination, calibration, and decision curves for each of the prognostic models in each cohort individually. For prognostic models with indications of miscalibration, an intercept update will be performed after which predictive performance will be re-evaluated. DISCUSSION: Insight into the performance of existing prognostic models in one of the most vulnerable populations clarifies the extent to which tailoring of COVID-19 prognostic models is needed when models are applied to the older population. Such insight will be important for possible future waves of the COVID-19 pandemic or future pandemics.

Factors Associated with ADL Dependence in Nursing Home Residents with Korsakoff's Syndrome and Other Alcohol-Related Disorders: An Explorative Cross-Sectional Study.

Difficulties in performing activities of daily living (ADL) are common in patients with Korsakoff's syndrome (KS). The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with ADL dependence in nursing home residents with KS. This exploratory, cross-sectional study included 281 residents with KS from 9 specialized nursing homes in the Netherlands. We examined demographic, cognitive, somatic, and (neuro)psychiatric characteristics. ADL dependence was assessed with the Inter-RAI ADL Hierarchy Scale. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with ADL dependence. Cognitive impairment (odds ratio [OR] = 7.46; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.10-30.5), female gender (OR = 3.23; CI, 1.21-8.78), staying in a nursing home for ≥5 years (OR = 3.12; CI, 1.24-8.33), and impaired awareness (OR = 4.25; CI, 1.56-12.32) were significantly associated with higher ADL dependence. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) was significantly associated with lower ADL dependence (OR = 0.31; CI, 0.01-0.84). The model explained 32% of the variance. The results suggest that when choosing interventions aimed at improving ADL functioning, special attention should be paid to residents living more than five years in the nursing home, with a female gender, with more severe cognitive impairments, and/or with COPD.

Psychological Resilience in Older Residents of Long-Term Care Facilities: Occurrence and Associated Factors.

OBJECTIVES: The researchers aimed to (1) explore the occurrence of psychological resilience in the face of a major life stressor and conflict in older residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs), and (2) identify factors associated with resilience in this population. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study using the Dutch InterRAI-LTCF cohort. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Older residents (≥60 years old) of 21 LTCFs in the Netherlands. METHODS: The researchers selected 2 samples of residents who had at least 2 assessments surrounding (1) an incident major life stressor, or (2) incident conflict with other resident or staff. A resilient outcome was operationalized as not having clinically meaningful mood symptoms at the post-stressor assessment and equal or fewer mood symptoms at the post-stressor relative to the pre-stressor assessment. The researchers used 2 resilience outcomes per stressor: 1 based on observer-reported mood symptoms and 1 based on self-reported mood symptoms. The most important factors from among 21 potential resilience factors for each of the 4 operationalizations of resilience were identified using a backward selection procedure with 2-level generalized estimating equations analyses. RESULTS: Forty-eight percent and 50% of residents were resilient in the face of a major life stressor, based on observer-reported (n = 248) and self-reported (n = 211) mood, respectively. In the face of conflict, 26% and 51% of the residents demonstrated resilience, based on the observer-reported (n = 246) and self-reported (n = 183) mood, respectively. Better cognitive functioning, a strong and supportive relationship with family, participation in social activities, and better self-reported health were most strongly associated with resilience in the face of a major life stressor. Better communicative functioning, absence of psychiatric diagnoses, a strong and supportive relationship with family, not being lonely, social engagement, and not reminiscing about life were most strongly associated with resilience in the face of conflict. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Factors with a social aspect appear to be particularly important to psychological resilience in older LTCF residents, and provide a potential target for intervention in the LTCF setting.

Setting up a Governance Framework for Secondary Use of Routine Health Data in Nursing Homes: Development Study Using Qualitative Interviews.

BACKGROUND: In the nursing home sector, reusing routinely recorded data from electronic health records (EHRs) for knowledge development and quality improvement is still in its infancy. Trust in appropriate and responsible reuse is crucial for patients and nursing homes deciding whether to share EHR data for these purposes. A data governance framework determines who may access the data, under what conditions, and for what purposes. This can help obtain that trust. Although increasing attention is being paid to data governance in the health care sector, little guidance is available on development and implementation of a data governance framework in practice. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to describe the development process of a governance framework for the "Registry Learning from Data in Nursing Homes," a national registry for EHR data on care delivered by nursing home physicians (in Dutch: specialist ouderengeneeskunde) in Dutch nursing homes-to allow data reusage for research and quality improvement of care. METHODS: Relevant stakeholders representing practices, policies, and research in the nursing home sector were identified. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 20 people from 14 stakeholder organizations. The main aim of the interviews was to explore stakeholders' perspectives regarding the Registry's aim, data access criteria, and governing bodies' tasks and composition. Interview topics and analyses were guided by 8 principles regarding governance for reusing health data, as described in the literature. Interview results, together with legal advice and consensus discussions by the Registry's consortium partners, were used to shape the rules, regulations, and governing bodies of the governance framework. RESULTS: Stakeholders valued the involvement of nursing home residents and their representatives, nursing home physicians, nursing homes' boards of directors, and scientists and saw this as a prerequisite for a trustworthy data governance framework. For the Registry, involvement of these groups can be achieved through a procedure in which residents can provide their consent or objection to the reuse of the data, transparency about the decisions made, and providing them a position in a governing body. In addition, a data request approval procedure based on predefined assessment criteria indicates that data reuse by third parties aligns with the aims of the Registry, benefits the nursing home sector, and protects the privacy of data subjects. CONCLUSIONS: The stakeholders' views, expertise, and knowledge of other frameworks and relevant legislation serve to inform the application of governance principles to the contexts of both the nursing home sector and the Netherlands. Many different stakeholders were involved in the development of the Registry Learning from Data in Nursing Homes' governance framework and will continue to be involved. Engagement of the full range of stakeholders in an early stage of governance framework development is important to generate trust in appropriate and responsible data reuse.

The Perceived Impact of the Namaste Care Family Program on Nursing Home Residents with Dementia, Staff, and Family Caregivers: A Qualitative Study.

Objective(s): To examine the perspectives of staff, and family caregivers (i.e., family, friends, and volunteers) on the impact of the Namaste Care Family program on all involved. The Namaste Care Family program is a structured program for people with advanced dementia based on a palliative care approach in which family caregivers provide daily sessions together with staff with the aim to increase residents' quality of life. Methods: In this descriptive qualitative study, we interviewed 12 family caregivers, and 31 staff members from 10 nursing homes. Data was analyzed thematically. Results: A perceived impact of the program was identified for the residents, staff, and family caregivers. For residents, this included well-being, more engagement, enhanced interactions, changes in energy level, and weight gain. The impact on family caregivers included a more positive view of people with dementia, changes in family visits, mixed feelings during sessions, and mixed changes in relations with all involved. For staff, this included diverse work experiences, shift to more person-centered care (more time and attention for residents, and more awareness), and developing relationships with residents and colleagues. Conclusions: The Namaste Care Family program was valued for its observed benefits and shift towards a person-centered care culture.

Evaluating the feasibility, experiences, facilitators of and barriers to carers and volunteers delivering Namaste Care to people with dementia in their own home: a qualitative interview study in the UK and the Netherlands.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the feasibility, facilitators of and barriers to delivering Namaste Care by volunteers and family carers to community-dwelling people with dementia, and to map family carers and volunteers' experiences with the programme. DESIGN: Qualitative interview study with two phases: (1) preparation phase; (2) pilot phase. SETTING: Private residences of community-dwelling people with dementia in the UK and the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: Family carers and volunteers of community-dwelling people with dementia (phase 1: 36 Dutch interviews, phase 2: 9 Dutch and 16 UK interviews). INTERVENTION: Namaste Care is a multicomponent psychosocial programme, originally developed for people with dementia residing in long-term care facilities. Meaningful activities were offered by carers and volunteers. Each person with dementia was offered 10 one-hour sessions. RESULTS: Phase 1: Namaste Care was deemed feasible for community-dwelling people with dementia and no major adaptations to the programme were considered necessary. Phase 2: perceived effects of Namaste Care on people with dementia included improved mood and increased interaction. The programme appeared enriching for both family carers and volunteers, providing joy, respite from care and new insights for coping with challenging behaviour. A flexible attitude of the Namaste provider facilitated its delivery. High caregiver burden and a strained relationship between the family carer and person with dementia were considered barriers. Experiences of family carers and volunteers with Namaste Care were very positive (mean satisfaction rating: 8.7 out of 10, SD=0.9, range 7-10). CONCLUSION: We recommend offering Namaste Care delivered by volunteers, preferably multiple sessions per week of 1.5-2 hours to optimise quality of life of community-dwelling people with dementia. Working with well-matched, flexible Namaste providers is pivotal. Family involvement should be encouraged, although the extent should be adapted depending on preference, caregiver burden and the relationship between the family carer and the person with dementia. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NL5570.

Prediction models for the prediction of unplanned hospital admissions in community-dwelling older adults: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Identification of community-dwelling older adults at risk of unplanned hospitalizations is of importance to facilitate preventive interventions. Our objective was to review and appraise the methodological quality and predictive performance of prediction models for predicting unplanned hospitalizations in community-dwelling older adults. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL from August 2013 to January 2021. Additionally, we checked references of the identified articles for the inclusion of relevant publications and added studies from two previous reviews that fulfilled the eligibility criteria. We included prospective and retrospective studies with any follow-up period that recruited adults aged 65 and over and developed a prediction model predicting unplanned hospitalizations. We included models with at least one (internal or external) validation cohort. The models had to be intended to be used in a primary care setting. Two authors independently assessed studies for inclusion and undertook data extraction following recommendations of the CHARMS checklist, while quality assessment was performed using the PROBAST tool. A total of 19 studies met the inclusion criteria. Prediction horizon ranged from 4.5 months to 4 years. Most frequently included variables were specific medical diagnoses (n = 11), previous hospital admission (n = 11), age (n = 11), and sex or gender (n = 8). Predictive performance in terms of area under the curve ranged from 0.61 to 0.78. Models developed to predict potentially preventable hospitalizations tended to have better predictive performance than models predicting hospitalizations in general. Overall, risk of bias was high, predominantly in the analysis domain. CONCLUSIONS: Models developed to predict preventable hospitalizations tended to have better predictive performance than models to predict all-cause hospitalizations. There is however substantial room for improvement on the reporting and analysis of studies. We recommend better adherence to the TRIPOD guidelines.

Risk of Death in Nursing Home Residents After COVID-19 Vaccination.

OBJECTIVES: In the first months of 2021, the Dutch COVID-19 vaccination campaign was disturbed by reports of death in Norwegian nursing homes (NHs) after vaccination. Reports predominantly concerned persons >65 years of age with 1 or more comorbidities. Also, in the Netherlands adverse events were reported after COVID-19 vaccination in this vulnerable group. Yet, it was unclear whether a causal link between vaccination and death existed. Therefore, we investigated the risk of death after COVID-19 vaccination in Dutch NH residents compared with the risk of death in NH residents prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: Population-based longitudinal cohort study with electronic health record data. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We studied Dutch NH residents from 73 NHs who received 1 or 2 COVID-19 vaccination(s) between January 13 and April 16, 2021 (n = 21,762). As a historical comparison group, we included Dutch NH residents who were registered in the same period in 2019 (n = 27,591). METHODS: Data on vaccination status, age, gender, type of care, comorbidities, and date of NH entry and (if applicable) discharge or date of death were extracted from electronic health records. Risk of death after 30 days was evaluated and compared between vaccinated residents and historical comparison residents with Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses. Regression analyses were adjusted for age, gender, comorbidities, and length of stay. RESULTS: Risk of death in NH residents after one COVID-19 vaccination (regardless of whether a second vaccination was given) was decreased compared with historical comparison residents from 2019 (adjusted HR 0.77, 95% CI 0.69-0.86). The risk of death further decreased after 2 vaccinations compared with the historical comparison group (adjusted HR 0.57, 95% CI 0.50-0.64). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: We found no indication that risk of death in NH residents is increased after COVID-19 vaccination. These results indicate that COVID-19 vaccination in NH residents is safe and could reduce fear and resistance toward vaccination.

The Effects of the 2020 COVID-19 Lockdown on Mood, Behavior, and Social and Cognitive Functioning in Older Long-Term Care Residents.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to explore the effects of the Dutch COVID-19 lockdown (March 20-May 25, 2020) on mood, behavior, and social and cognitive functioning of older residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) prospectively. DESIGN: Mixed methods: historically controlled longitudinal cohort study and focus groups. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Residents of Dutch LTCFs. METHODS: Residents who were assessed during and prior to the lockdown were compared to residents of the same wards with 2 assessments prior to the lockdown. We used mixed models and generalized estimating equation analyses to explore differences in changes in mood, withdrawal and aggressive behavior, loneliness and conflict, and cognition and delirium. We also explored whether the effect of the lockdown differed for different subgroups. In 2 online focus groups, LTCF care professionals, ranging from care staff to physicians, reflected on their experiences of the effect of the lockdown and the cohort study results. RESULTS: The lockdown group of 298 residents was compared to the control group of 625 residents. Self-reported mood symptoms showed a slightly greater increase during the lockdown. During the first half of the lockdown, the level of conflict with other residents decreased whereas it increased in the control group. The subgroup with moderate-severe cognitive impairment showed a decrease in withdrawal during the lockdown, whereas the group with no-mild cognitive impairment showed a statistically nonsignificant relative increase. Professionals described great individual variation in the effects of the lockdown on residents. Facilities attempted to preserve the experienced positive effects, for example, by promoting tranquility in shared rooms and continuing to organize individualized ward-based activities. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: We did not find clinically relevant negative effects of the lockdown on mood, behavior, and social and cognitive functioning in older residents of LTCFs at the group level. Possibly, staff mitigated the negative effects at the group level. Meanwhile, they learned lessons that they continue to apply to enhance resident well-being.

Occurrence and Timing of Advance Care Planning in Persons With Dementia in General Practice: Analysis of Linked Electronic Health Records and Administrative Data.

Background: Advance care planning (ACP) is a process of communication in which patients and family caregivers discuss preferences for future care with the healthcare team. For persons with dementia, it is crucial to timely engage in ACP. Therefore, we study ACP in dementia using electronic health record data. This study aims to determine how often ACP conversations are recorded, analyze time from dementia diagnosis until the first recorded conversation and time from the first recorded conversation to death, and analyze which factors are associated with the timing of ACP. Methods: Electronic records of 15,493 persons with dementia in Dutch general practice between 2008 and 2016 were linked to national administrative databases. ACP conversations and indicators of health deficits to determine frailty were obtained from electronic records coded with the International Classification of Primary Care. Socio-demographic characteristics were derived from the national population registry managed by Statistics Netherlands. Date of death was derived from the Personal Records Database (2008-2018). Results: ACP was recorded as such as 22 (95% CI, 20-23) first conversations per 1,000 person-years of follow-up. The hazard ratio (HR) for the first conversation increased every year after dementia diagnosis, from 0.01 in the first year to 0.07 in the 7th and 8th year after diagnosis. Median time from a first conversation to death was 2.57 years (95% CI, 2.31-2.82). Migrant status [non-Western vs. Western (HR 0.31, 95% CI, 0.15-0.65)] was significantly associated with a longer time from dementia diagnosis to the first conversation. Being pre-frail (HR 2.06, 95% CI, 1.58-2.69) or frail (HR 1.40, 95% CI, 1.13-1.73) vs. non-frail was significantly associated with a shorter time from dementia diagnosis to the first ACP conversation. Conclusion: ACP conversations in Dutch general practice were rare for persons with dementia, or was rarely recorded as such. In particular among persons with a non-Western migration background and those who are non-frail, it started long after diagnosis. We advise further research into public health and practical strategies to engage persons with dementia with a non-Western migration background and non-frail persons early in the disease trajectory in ACP.

The Association Between Possible Stressors and Mood Outcomes in Older Residents of Long-Term Care Facilities.

Introduction: Resilience incorporates the presence of a positive response to some type of stressor. To properly explore resilience, it is important to systematically identify relevant stressors. We aimed to identify (combinations of) stressors with the strongest relationship with observer-reported and self-reported mood outcomes in older residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) in The Netherlands. Materials and Methods: We included 4,499 older (≥60) residents of 40 LTCFs who participated in the Dutch InterRAI-LTCF cohort between 2005 and 2018. The association of possible stressors (single stressors, number of stressors, and combinations of two stressors) in this population with observer-reported (Depression Rating Scale) and self-reported mood outcomes was analyzed using multilevel tobit models and logistic regressions. Results: Major life stressor ["experiences that (threatened to) disrupt(ed) a person's daily routine and imposed some degree of readjustment"] and conflict with other care recipients and/or staff were most strongly associated with both mood outcomes. Furthermore, conflict was a particularly prevalent stressor (24%). Falls, fractures, and hospital visits were more weakly or not associated at all. Overall, the associations were similar for the mood outcomes based on observer-report and self-report, although there were some differences. Multiple stressors were more strongly associated with both mood outcomes than one stressor. Conclusion: Major life stressor and conflict emerged as important stressors for resilience research within the psychological domain in LTCF residents. Further (longitudinal) research is necessary to determine the directionality and relevance of the strong association of conflict with mood for LTCF practice.