Should Gene Editing Be Used to Develop Crops for Continuous-Living-Cover Agriculture? A Multi-Sector Stakeholder Assessment Using a Cooperative Governance Approach.

Continuous-living-cover (CLC) agriculture integrates multiple crops to create diversified agroecosystems in which soils are covered by living plants across time and space continuously. CLC agriculture can greatly improve production of many different ecosystem services from agroecosystems, including climate adaptation and mitigation. To go to scale, CLC agriculture requires crops that not only provide continuous living cover but are viable in economic and social terms. At present, lack of such viable crops is strongly limiting the scaling of CLC agriculture. Gene editing (GE) might provide a powerful tool for developing the crops needed to expand CLC agriculture to scale. To assess this possibility, a broad multi-sector deliberative group considered the merits of GE-relative to alternative plant-breeding methods-as means for improving crops for CLC agriculture. The group included many of the sectors whose support is necessary to scaling agricultural innovations, including actors involved in markets, finance, policy, and R&D. In this article, we report findings from interviews and deliberative workshops. Many in the group were enthusiastic about prospects for applications of GE to develop crops for CLC agriculture, relative to alternative plant-breeding options. However, the group noted many issues, risks, and contingencies, all of which are likely to require responsive and adaptive management. Conversely, if these issues, risks, and contingencies cannot be managed, it appears unlikely that a strong multi-sector base of support can be sustained for such applications, limiting their scaling. Emerging methods for responsible innovation and scaling have potential to manage these issues, risks, and contingencies; we propose that outcomes from GE crops for CLC agriculture are likely to be much improved if these emerging methods are used to govern such projects. However, both GE of CLC crops and responsible innovation and scaling are unrefined innovations. Therefore, we suggest that the best pathway for exploring GE of CLC crops is to intentionally couple implementation and refinement of both kinds of innovations. More broadly, we argue that such pilot projects are urgently needed to navigate intensifying grand challenges around food and agriculture, which are likely to create intense pressures to develop genetically-engineered agricultural products and equally intense social conflict.

Plant community response to switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) population source in establishing prairies.

Ecological restoration and revegetation efforts entail the translocation of native plant populations. Risks associated with these efforts include failure of translocated populations to establish or, conversely, such strong establishment that they excessively dominate the recipient community. The role that selective breeding plays in mediating these risks is unclear but of increasing importance as efforts to restore and establish multifunctional grasslands also increase. In a three-year, spatially replicated study, we seeded experimental prairie communities with either domesticated (cultivar) or undomesticated strains of Panicum virgatum (switchgrass), a North American C4 species under development as a biomass crop. We evaluated the composition, performance, and diversity of the recipient plant communities and compared the performance of cultivar and undomesticated switchgrass in those communities. We found little evidence that switchgrass population source affected community response. Switchgrass cultivars modestly exceeded undomesticated strains with respect to stand establishment, third-year stand density, and aboveground biomass; effect size and significance differed among sites. Our results suggest that including cultivars in ecological restorations and multifunctional grasslands may enhance success of switchgrass establishment with little risk of impairing the composition or diversity of plant communities for up to three years, as reflected in the measures used here. However, the incorporation of undomesticated switchgrass into multifunctional grasslands may enhance landscape-scale genetic variation and mitigate risks associated with gene flow between translocated and local wild switchgrass populations; more research on these dynamics is needed.

A regionally-adapted implementation of conservation agriculture delivers rapid improvements to soil properties associated with crop yield stability.

Climate models predict increasing weather variability, with negative consequences for crop production. Conservation agriculture (CA) may enhance climate resilience by generating certain soil improvements. However, the rate at which these improvements accrue is unclear, and some evidence suggests CA can lower yields relative to conventional systems unless all three CA elements are implemented: reduced tillage, sustained soil cover, and crop rotational diversity. These cost-benefit issues are important considerations for potential adopters of CA. Given that CA can be implemented across a wide variety of regions and cropping systems, more detailed and mechanistic understanding is required on whether and how regionally-adapted CA can improve soil properties while minimizing potential negative crop yield impacts. Across four US states, we assessed short-term impacts of regionally-adapted CA systems on soil properties and explored linkages with maize and soybean yield stability. Structural equation modeling revealed increases in soil organic matter generated by cover cropping increased soil cation exchange capacity, which improved soybean yield stability. Cover cropping also enhanced maize minimum yield potential. Our results demonstrate individual CA elements can deliver rapid improvements in soil properties associated with crop yield stability, suggesting that regionally-adapted CA may play an important role in developing high-yielding, climate-resilient agricultural systems.

Invasion complexity at large spatial scales is an emergent property of interactions among landscape characteristics and invader traits.

Invasion potential should be part of the evaluation of candidate species for any species introduction. However, estimating invasion risks remains a challenging problem, particularly in complex landscapes. Certain plant traits are generally considered to increase invasive potential and there is an understanding that landscapes influence invasions dynamics, but little research has been done to explore how those drivers of invasions interact. We evaluate the relative roles of, and potential interactions between, plant invasiveness traits and landscape characteristics on invasions with a case study using a model parameterized for the potentially invasive biomass crop, Miscanthus × giganteus. Using that model we simulate invasions on 1000 real landscapes to evaluate how landscape characteristics, including both composition and spatial structure, affect invasion outcomes. We conducted replicate simulations with differing strengths of plant invasiveness traits (dispersal ability, establishment ability, population growth rate, and the ability to utilize dispersal corridors) to evaluate how the importance of landscape characteristics for predicting invasion patterns changes depending on the invader details. Analysis of simulations showed that the presence of highly suitable habitat (e.g., grasslands) is generally the strongest determinant of invasion dynamics but that there are also more subtle interactions between landscapes and invader traits. These effects can also vary between different aspects of invasion dynamics (short vs. long time scales and population size vs. spatial extent). These results illustrate that invasions are complex emergent processes with multiple drivers and effective management needs to reflect the ecology of the species of interest and the particular goals or risks for which efforts need to be optimized.

Lack of Impacts during Early Establishment Highlights a Short-Term Management Window for Minimizing Invasions from Perennial Biomass Crops.

Managing intentional species introductions requires evaluating potential ecological risks. However, it is difficult to weigh costs and benefits when data about interactions between novel species and the communities they are introduced to are scarce. In anticipation of expanded cultivation of perennial biomass crops, we experimentally introduced Miscanthus sinensis and Miscanthus × giganteus (two non-native candidate biomass crops) into two different non-crop habitats (old field and flood-plain forest) to evaluate their establishment success and impact on ambient local communities. We followed these controlled introductions and the composition dynamics of the receiving communities over a 5-year period. Habitats differed widely in adult Miscanthus survival and reproduction potential between species, although seed persistence and seedling emergence were similar in the two biomass crops in both habitats. Few introductions survived in the floodplain forest habitat, and this mortality precluded analyses of their potential impacts there. In old field habitats, proportional survival ranged from 0.3 to 0.4, and plant survival and growth increased with age. However, there was no evidence of biomass crop species effects on community richness or evenness or strong impacts on the resident old field constituents across 5 years. These results suggest that Miscanthus species could establish outside of cultivated fields, but there will likely be a lag in any impacts on the receiving communities. Local North American invasions by M. sinensis and M. sacchariflorus display the potential for Miscanthus species to develop aggressively expanding populations. However, the weak short-term community-level impacts demonstrated in the current study indicate a clear management window in which eradicating species footholds is easily achieved, if they can be detected early enough. Diligent long-term monitoring, detection, and eradication plans are needed to successfully minimize harmful invasions from these biomass crops.

Soil Water Holding Capacity Mitigates Downside Risk and Volatility in US Rainfed Maize: Time to Invest in Soil Organic Matter?

Yield stability is fundamental to global food security in the face of climate change, and better strategies are needed for buffering crop yields against increased weather variability. Regional- scale analyses of yield stability can support robust inferences about buffering strategies for widely-grown staple crops, but have not been accomplished. We present a novel analytical approach, synthesizing 2000-2014 data on weather and soil factors to quantify their impact on county-level maize yield stability in four US states that vary widely in these factors (Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania). Yield stability is quantified as both 'downside risk' (minimum yield potential, MYP) and 'volatility' (temporal yield variability). We show that excessive heat and drought decreased mean yields and yield stability, while higher precipitation increased stability. Soil water holding capacity strongly affected yield volatility in all four states, either directly (Minnesota and Pennsylvania) or indirectly, via its effects on MYP (Illinois and Michigan). We infer that factors contributing to soil water holding capacity can help buffer maize yields against variable weather. Given that soil water holding capacity responds (within limits) to agronomic management, our analysis highlights broadly relevant management strategies for buffering crop yields against climate variability, and informs region-specific strategies.

Soil Functional Zone Management: A Vehicle for Enhancing Production and Soil Ecosystem Services in Row-Crop Agroecosystems.

There is increasing global demand for food, bioenergy feedstocks and a wide variety of bio-based products. In response, agriculture has advanced production, but is increasingly depleting soil regulating and supporting ecosystem services. New production systems have emerged, such as no-tillage, that can enhance soil services but may limit yields. Moving forward, agricultural systems must reduce trade-offs between production and soil services. Soil functional zone management (SFZM) is a novel strategy for developing sustainable production systems that attempts to integrate the benefits of conventional, intensive agriculture, and no-tillage. SFZM creates distinct functional zones within crop row and inter-row spaces. By incorporating decimeter-scale spatial and temporal heterogeneity, SFZM attempts to foster greater soil biodiversity and integrate complementary soil processes at the sub-field level. Such integration maximizes soil services by creating zones of 'active turnover', optimized for crop growth and yield (provisioning services); and adjacent zones of 'soil building', that promote soil structure development, carbon storage, and moisture regulation (regulating and supporting services). These zones allow SFZM to secure existing agricultural productivity while avoiding or minimizing trade-offs with soil ecosystem services. Moreover, the specific properties of SFZM may enable sustainable increases in provisioning services via temporal intensification (expanding the portion of the year during which harvestable crops are grown). We present a conceptual model of 'virtuous cycles', illustrating how increases in crop yields within SFZM systems could create self-reinforcing feedback processes with desirable effects, including mitigation of trade-offs between yield maximization and soil ecosystem services. Through the creation of functionally distinct but interacting zones, SFZM may provide a vehicle for optimizing the delivery of multiple goods and services in agricultural systems, allowing sustainable temporal intensification while protecting and enhancing soil functioning.

Modeling the effect of social networks on adoption of multifunctional agriculture.

Rotational grazing (RG) has attracted much attention as a cornerstone of multifunctional agriculture (MFA) in animal systems, potentially capable of producing a range of goods and services of value to diverse stakeholders in agricultural landscapes and rural communities, as well as broader societal benefits. Despite these benefits, global adoption of MFA has been uneven, with some places seeing active participation, while others have seen limited growth. Recent conceptual models of MFA emphasize the potential for bottom-up processes and linkages among social and environmental systems to promote multifunctionality. Social networks are critical to these explanations but how and why these networks matter is unclear. We investigated fifty-three farms in three states in the United States (New York, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania) and developed a stylized model of social networks and systemic change in the dairy farming system. We found that social networks are important to RG adoption but their impact is contingent on social and spatial factors. Effects of networks on farmer decision making differ according to whether they comprise weak-tie relationships, which bridge across disparate people and organizations, or strong-tie relationships, which are shared by groups in which members are well known to one another. RG adoption is also dependent on features of the social landscape including the number of dairy households, the probability of neighboring farmers sharing strong ties, and the role of space in how networks are formed. The model replicates features of real-world adoption of RG practices in the Eastern US and illustrates pathways toward greater multifunctionality in the dairy landscape. Such models are likely to be of heuristic value in network-focused strategies for agricultural development.

TMDL implementation in agricultural landscapes: a communicative and systemic approach.

Increasingly, total maximum daily load (TMDL) limits are being defined for agricultural watersheds. Reductions in non-point source pollution are often needed to meet TMDL limits, and improvements in management of annual crops appear insufficient to achieve the necessary reductions. Increased adoption of perennial crops and other changes in agricultural land use also appear necessary, but face major barriers. We outline a novel strategy that aims to create new economic opportunities for land-owners and other stakeholders and thereby to attract their voluntary participation in land-use change needed to meet TMDLs. Our strategy has two key elements. First, focused efforts are needed to create new economic enterprises that capitalize on the productive potential of multifunctional agriculture (MFA). MFA seeks to produce a wide range of goods and ecosystem services by well-designed deployment of annual and perennial crops across agricultural landscapes and watersheds; new revenue from MFA may substantially finance land-use change needed to meet TMDLs. Second, efforts to capitalize on MFA should use a novel methodology, the Communicative/Systemic Approach (C/SA). C/SA uses an integrative GIS-based spatial modeling framework for systematically assessing tradeoffs and synergies in design and evaluation of multifunctional agricultural landscapes, closely linked to deliberation and design processes by which multiple stakeholders can collaboratively create appropriate and acceptable MFA landscape designs. We anticipate that application of C/SA will strongly accelerate TMDL implementation, by aligning the interests of multiple stakeholders whose active support is needed to change agricultural land use and thereby meet TMDL goals.