Incorporating photosynthetic acclimation improves stomatal optimisation models.

Stomatal opening in plant leaves is regulated through a balance of carbon and water exchange under different environmental conditions. Accurate estimation of stomatal regulation is crucial for understanding how plants respond to changing environmental conditions, particularly under climate change. A new generation of optimality-based modelling schemes determines instantaneous stomatal responses from a balance of trade-offs between carbon gains and hydraulic costs, but most such schemes do not account for biochemical acclimation in response to drought. Here, we compare the performance of six instantaneous stomatal optimisation models with and without accounting for photosynthetic acclimation. Using experimental data from 37 plant species, we found that accounting for photosynthetic acclimation improves the prediction of carbon assimilation in a majority of the tested models. Photosynthetic acclimation contributed significantly to the reduction of photosynthesis under drought conditions in all tested models. Drought effects on photosynthesis could not accurately be explained by the hydraulic impairment functions embedded in the stomatal models alone, indicating that photosynthetic acclimation must be considered to improve estimates of carbon assimilation during drought.

Optimal balancing of xylem efficiency and safety explains plant vulnerability to drought.

In vast areas of the world, forests and vegetation are water limited and plant survival depends on the ability to avoid catastrophic hydraulic failure. Therefore, it is remarkable that plants take hydraulic risks by operating at water potentials (ψ) that induce partial failure of the water conduits (xylem). Here we present an eco-evolutionary optimality principle for xylem conduit design that explains this phenomenon based on the hypothesis that conductive efficiency and safety are optimally co-adapted to the environment. The model explains the relationship between the tolerance to negative water potential (ψ50 ) and the environmentally dependent minimum ψ (ψmin ) across a large number of species, and along the xylem pathway within individuals of two species studied. The wider hydraulic safety margin in gymnosperms compared to angiosperms can be explained as an adaptation to a higher susceptibility to accumulation of embolism. The model provides a novel optimality-based perspective on the relationship between xylem safety and efficiency.

Towards a unified theory of plant photosynthesis and hydraulics.

The global carbon and water cycles are governed by the coupling of CO2 and water vapour exchanges through the leaves of terrestrial plants, controlled by plant adaptations to balance carbon gains and hydraulic risks. We introduce a trait-based optimality theory that unifies the treatment of stomatal responses and biochemical acclimation of plants to environments changing on multiple timescales. Tested with experimental data from 18 species, our model successfully predicts the simultaneous decline in carbon assimilation rate, stomatal conductance and photosynthetic capacity during progressive soil drought. It also correctly predicts the dependencies of gas exchange on atmospheric vapour pressure deficit, temperature and CO2. Model predictions are also consistent with widely observed empirical patterns, such as the distribution of hydraulic strategies. Our unified theory opens new avenues for reliably modelling the interactive effects of drying soil and rising atmospheric CO2 on global photosynthesis and transpiration.

Eco-evolutionary optimality as a means to improve vegetation and land-surface models.

Global vegetation and land-surface models embody interdisciplinary scientific understanding of the behaviour of plants and ecosystems, and are indispensable to project the impacts of environmental change on vegetation and the interactions between vegetation and climate. However, systematic errors and persistently large differences among carbon and water cycle projections by different models highlight the limitations of current process formulations. In this review, focusing on core plant functions in the terrestrial carbon and water cycles, we show how unifying hypotheses derived from eco-evolutionary optimality (EEO) principles can provide novel, parameter-sparse representations of plant and vegetation processes. We present case studies that demonstrate how EEO generates parsimonious representations of core, leaf-level processes that are individually testable and supported by evidence. EEO approaches to photosynthesis and primary production, dark respiration and stomatal behaviour are ripe for implementation in global models. EEO approaches to other important traits, including the leaf economics spectrum and applications of EEO at the community level are active research areas. Independently tested modules emerging from EEO studies could profitably be integrated into modelling frameworks that account for the multiple time scales on which plants and plant communities adjust to environmental change.

Improving prediction and assessment of global fires using multilayer neural networks.

Fires determine vegetation patterns, impact human societies, and are a part of complex feedbacks into the global climate system. Empirical and process-based models differ in their scale and mechanistic assumptions, giving divergent predictions of fire drivers and extent. Although humans have historically used and managed fires, the current role of anthropogenic drivers of fires remains less quantified. Whereas patterns in fire-climate interactions are consistent across the globe, fire-human-vegetation relationships vary strongly by region. Taking a data-driven approach, we use an artificial neural network to learn region-specific relationships between fire and its socio-environmental drivers across the globe. As a result, our models achieve higher predictability as compared to many state-of-the-art fire models, with global spatial correlation of 0.92, monthly temporal correlation of 0.76, interannual correlation of 0.69, and grid-cell level correlation of 0.60, between predicted and observed burned area. Given the current socio-anthropogenic conditions, Equatorial Asia, southern Africa, and Australia show a strong sensitivity of burned area to temperature whereas northern Africa shows a strong negative sensitivity. Overall, forests and shrublands show a stronger sensitivity of burned area to temperature compared to savannas, potentially weakening their status as carbon sinks under future climate-change scenarios.

Emergence of social inequality in the spatial harvesting of renewable public goods.

Spatially extended ecological public goods, such as forests, grasslands, and fish stocks, are at risk of being overexploited by selfish consumers-a phenomenon widely recognized as the 'tragedy of the commons.' The interplay of spatial and ecological dimensions introduces new features absent in non-spatial ecological contexts, such as consumer mobility, local information availability, and strategy evolution through social learning in neighborhoods. It is unclear how these features interact to influence the harvesting and dispersal strategies of consumers. To answer these questions, we develop and analyze an individual-based, spatially structured, eco-evolutionary model with explicit resource dynamics. We report the following findings. (1) When harvesting efficiency is low, consumers evolve a sedentary consumption strategy, through which the resource is harvested sustainably, but with harvesting rates far below their maximum sustainable value. (2) As harvesting efficiency increases, consumers adopt a mobile 'consume-and-disperse' strategy, which is sustainable, equitable, and gives maximum sustainable yield. (3) A further increase in harvesting efficiency leads to large-scale overexploitation. (4) If costs of dispersal are significant, increased harvesting efficiency also leads to social inequality between frugal sedentary consumers and overexploitative mobile consumers. Whereas overexploitation can occur without social inequality, social inequality always leads to overexploitation. Thus, we identify four conditions that-while being characteristic of technological progress in modern societies-risk social inequality and overexploitation: high harvesting efficiency, moderately low costs of dispersal, high consumer density, and the tendency of consumers to adopt new strategies rapidly. We also show how access to global information-another feature widespread in modern societies-helps mitigate these risks.

Demographic noise and cost of greenbeard can facilitate greenbeard cooperation.

Cooperation among organisms, where cooperators suffer a personal cost to benefit others, is ubiquitous in nature. Greenbeard is a key mechanism for the evolution of cooperation, where a single gene or a set of linked genes codes for both cooperation and a phenotypic tag (metaphorically called "green beard"). Greenbeard cooperation is typically thought to decline over time since defectors can also evolve the tag. However, models of tag-based cooperation typically ignore two key realistic features: populations are finite, and that phenotypic tags can be costly. We develop an analytical model for coevolutionary dynamics of two evolvable traits in finite populations with mutations: costly cooperation and a costly tag. We show that an interplay of demographic noise and cost of the tag can induce coevolutionary cycling, where the evolving population does not reach a steady state but spontaneously switches between cooperative tag-carrying and noncooperative tagless states. Such dynamics allows the tag to repeatedly reappear even after it is invaded by defectors. Thus, we highlight the surprising possibility that the cost of the tag, together with demographic noise, can facilitate the evolution of greenbeard cooperation. We discuss implications of these findings in the context of the evolution of quorum sensing and multicellularity.

Mobility can promote the evolution of cooperation via emergent self-assortment dynamics.

The evolution of costly cooperation, where cooperators pay a personal cost to benefit others, requires that cooperators interact more frequently with other cooperators. This condition, called positive assortment, is known to occur in spatially-structured viscous populations, where individuals typically have low mobility and limited dispersal. However many social organisms across taxa, from cells and bacteria, to birds, fish and ungulates, are mobile, and live in populations with considerable inter-group mixing. In the absence of information regarding others' traits or conditional strategies, such mixing may inhibit assortment and limit the potential for cooperation to evolve. Here we employ spatially-explicit individual-based evolutionary simulations to incorporate costs and benefits of two coevolving costly traits: cooperative and local cohesive tendencies. We demonstrate that, despite possessing no information about others' traits or payoffs, mobility (via self-propulsion or environmental forcing) facilitates assortment of cooperators via a dynamically evolving difference in the cohesive tendencies of cooperators and defectors. We show analytically that this assortment can also be viewed in a multilevel selection framework, where selection for cooperation among emergent groups can overcome selection against cooperators within the groups. As a result of these dynamics, we find an oscillatory pattern of cooperation and defection that maintains cooperation even in the absence of well known mechanisms such as kin interactions, reciprocity, local dispersal or conditional strategies that require information on others' strategies or payoffs. Our results offer insights into differential adhesion based mechanisms for positive assortment and reveal the possibility of cooperative aggregations in dynamic fission-fusion populations.