Forest riparian buffers reduce timber harvesting effects on stream temperature, but additional climate adaptation strategies are likely needed under future conditions.

Stream water temperature imposes metabolic constraints on the health of cold-water fish like salmonids. Timber harvesting can reduce stream shading leading to higher water temperatures, while also altering stream hydrology. In the Pacific Northwest, riparian buffer requirements are designed to mitigate these impacts; however, anticipated future changes in air temperature and precipitation could reduce the efficacy of these practices in protecting aquatic ecosystems. Using a combined modeling approach (Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), Shade, and QUAL2K), this study examines the effectiveness of riparian buffers in reducing impacts of timber harvest on stream water temperature in Lookout Creek, Oregon across a range of potential future climates. Simulations assess changes in riparian management alone, climate alone, and combined effects. Results suggest that maximum stream water temperatures during thermal stress events are projected to increase by 3.3-7.4 °C due to hydroclimatic change alone by the end of this century. Riparian management is effective in reducing stream temperature increases from timber harvesting alone but cannot fully counteract the additional effects of a warming climate. Overall, our findings suggest that the protection of sensitive aquatic species will likely require additional adaptation strategies, such as the protection or provisioning of cool water refugia, to enhance survival during maximum thermal stress events.

Adaptation Design Tool for Climate-Smart Management of Coral Reefs and Other Natural Resources.

Scientists and managers of natural resources have recognized an urgent need for improved methods and tools to enable effective adaptation of management measures in the face of climate change. This paper presents an Adaptation Design Tool that uses a structured approach to break down an otherwise overwhelming and complex process into tractable steps. The tool contains worksheets that guide users through a series of design considerations for adapting their planned management actions to be more climate-smart given changing environmental stressors. Also provided with other worksheets is a framework for brainstorming new adaptation options in response to climate threats not yet addressed in the current plan. Developed and tested in collaboration with practitioners in Hawai'i and Puerto Rico using coral reefs as a pilot ecosystem, the tool and associated reference materials consist of worksheets, instructions and lessons-learned from real-world examples. On the basis of stakeholder feedback from expert consultations during tool development, we present insights and recommendations regarding how to maximize tool efficiency, gain the greatest value from the thought process, and deal with issues of scale and uncertainty. We conclude by reflecting on how the tool advances the theory and practice of assessment and decision-making science, informs higher level strategic planning, and serves as a platform for a systematic, transparent and inclusive process to tackle the practical implications of climate change for management of natural resources.

Climate-Smart Design for Ecosystem Management: A Test Application for Coral Reefs.

The interactive and cumulative impacts of climate change on natural resources such as coral reefs present numerous challenges for conservation planning and management. Climate change adaptation is complex due to climate-stressor interactions across multiple spatial and temporal scales. This leaves decision makers worldwide faced with local, regional, and global-scale threats to ecosystem processes and services, occurring over time frames that require both near-term and long-term planning. Thus there is a need for structured approaches to adaptation planning that integrate existing methods for vulnerability assessment with design and evaluation of effective adaptation responses. The Corals and Climate Adaptation Planning project of the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force seeks to develop guidance for improving coral reef management through tailored application of a climate-smart approach. This approach is based on principles from a recently-published guide which provides a framework for adopting forward-looking goals, based on assessing vulnerabilities to climate change and applying a structured process to design effective adaptation strategies. Work presented in this paper includes: (1) examination of the climate-smart management cycle as it relates to coral reefs; (2) a compilation of adaptation strategies for coral reefs drawn from a comprehensive review of the literature; (3) in-depth demonstration of climate-smart design for place-based crafting of robust adaptation actions; and (4) feedback from stakeholders on the perceived usefulness of the approach. We conclude with a discussion of lessons-learned on integrating climate-smart design into real-world management planning processes and a call from stakeholders for an "adaptation design tool" that is now under development.

U.S. natural resources and climate change: concepts and approaches for management adaptation.

Public lands and waters in the United States traditionally have been managed using frameworks and objectives that were established under an implicit assumption of stable climatic conditions. However, projected climatic changes render this assumption invalid. Here, we summarize general principles for management adaptations that have emerged from a major literature review. These general principles cover many topics including: (1) how to assess climate impacts to ecosystem processes that are key to management goals; (2) using management practices to support ecosystem resilience; (3) converting barriers that may inhibit management responses into opportunities for successful implementation; and (4) promoting flexible decision making that takes into account challenges of scale and thresholds. To date, the literature on management adaptations to climate change has mostly focused on strategies for bolstering the resilience of ecosystems to persist in their current states. Yet in the longer term, it is anticipated that climate change will push certain ecosystems and species beyond their capacity to recover. When managing to support resilience becomes infeasible, adaptation may require more than simply changing management practices--it may require changing management goals and managing transitions to new ecosystem states. After transitions have occurred, management will again support resilience--this time for a new ecosystem state. Thus, successful management of natural resources in the context of climate change will require recognition on the part of managers and decisions makers of the need to cycle between "managing for resilience" and "managing for change."