Text mining of verbal autopsy narratives to extract mortality causes and most prevalent diseases using natural language processing.

Verbal autopsy (VA) narratives play a crucial role in understanding and documenting the causes of mortality, especially in regions lacking robust medical infrastructure. In this study, we propose a comprehensive approach to extract mortality causes and identify prevalent diseases from VA narratives utilizing advanced text mining techniques, so as to better understand the underlying health issues leading to mortality. Our methodology integrates n-gram-based language processing, Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), and BERTopic, offering a multi-faceted analysis to enhance the accuracy and depth of information extraction. This is a retrospective study that uses secondary data analysis. We used data from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS), which had 16338 observations collected between 1993 and 2015. Our text mining steps entailed data acquisition, pre-processing, feature extraction, topic segmentation, and discovered knowledge. The results suggest that the HDSS population may have died from mortality causes such as vomiting, chest/stomach pain, fever, coughing, loss of weight, low energy, headache. Additionally, we discovered that the most prevalent diseases entailed human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), tuberculosis (TB), diarrhoea, cancer, neurological disorders, malaria, diabetes, high blood pressure, chronic ailments (kidney, heart, lung, liver), maternal and accident related deaths. This study is relevant in that it avails valuable insights regarding mortality causes and most prevalent diseases using novel text mining approaches. These results can be integrated in the diagnosis pipeline for ease of human annotation and interpretation. As such, this will help with effective informed intervention programmes that can improve primary health care systems and chronic based delivery, thus increasing life expectancy.

Social support receipt as a predictor of mortality: A cohort study in rural South Africa.

The mechanisms connecting various types of social support to mortality have been well-studied in high-income countries. However, less is known about how these relationships function in different socioeconomic contexts. We examined how four domains of social support-emotional, physical, financial, and informational-impact mortality within a sample of older adults living in a rural and resource-constrained setting. Using baseline survey and longitudinal mortality data from HAALSI, we assessed how social support affects mortality in a cohort of 5059 individuals aged 40 years or older in rural Mpumalanga, South Africa. Social support was captured as the self-reported frequency with which close social contacts offered emotional, physical, financial, and informational support to respondents, standardized across the sample to increase interpretability. We used Cox proportional hazard models to evaluate how each support type affected mortality controlling for potential confounders, and assessed potential effect-modification by age and sex. Each of the four support domains had small positive associations with mortality, ranging from a hazard ratio per standard deviation of support of 1.04 [95% CI: 0.95,1.13] for financial support to 1.09 [95% CI: 0.99,1.18] for informational support. Associations were often stronger for females and younger individuals. We find baseline social support to be positively associated with mortality in rural South Africa. Possible explanations include that insufficient social support is not a strong driver of mortality risk in this setting, or that social support does not reach some necessary threshold to buffer against mortality. Additionally, it is possible that the social support measure did not capture more relevant aspects of support, or that our social support measures captured prior morbidity that attracted support before the study began. We highlight approaches to evaluate some of these hypotheses in future research.

Can verbal autopsies be used on a national scale? Key findings and lessons from South Africa's national cause-of-death validation study.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy (VA), though imperfect, serves as a vital tool to determine cause-of-death, particularly for out-of-facility deaths, but challenges persist in integrating VA into Civil Registration and Vital Statistics systems. OBJECTIVE: To describe the challenges and successes of collecting a national sample of verbal autopsy interviews in South Africa to obtain the cause of death profile in 2017/18. METHODS: We recruited next of kin from 27 randomly selected sub-districts (10.5%) across South Africa between September 2017 and April 2018. Trained fieldworkers conducted face-to-face interviews using the WHO2016 VA instrument, with physicians certifying underlying causes of death. Feasibility was evaluated based on response rates, participation, and data quality. RESULTS: Of the total 36,976 deaths registered, only 26% were identified during recruitment, with a 55% overall response rate for VA interviews. Physician-reviewed VA data were deemed of good quality for assigning underlying causes of death in 83% of cases. By comparing cause-specific mortality fractions, physician-reviewed VA identified 22.3% HIV/AIDS and InterVA-5 identified 18.5%, aligning with burden of disease estimates, while Statistics South Africa reported 4.9% HIV/AIDS. CONCLUSIONS: The study demonstrated the feasibility of using VA on a national scale, but immense challenges in identifying and recruiting next of kin highlight the importance of formalising VAs within the country's death notification system.

• Main findings: Next of kin of 9 730 decedents were approached at the time of registration of death and 55% consented to be approached later and agreed to do a VA interview by a trained field-worker; 83% of physician-reviewed VA data were considered high-quality for determining underlying causes and 22.3% of all the deaths were due to HIV/AIDS, much higher than the proportion reported in the national statistical office.• Added knowledge: Implementing the VA on a national scale was achievable but significant challenges in recruiting next of kin, emphasising a need to formalise VAs within the country's death notification system.• Global health impact for policy and action: Accurate cause-of-death data are crucial for policymakers to make informed decisions about the country's health system and could be supported by using VAs, particularly for the deaths that occur outside health facilities.

Effect of a cash transfer intervention on memory decline and dementia probability in older adults in rural South Africa.

Evidence on cash transfers as a population-level intervention to support healthy cognitive aging in low-income settings is sparse. We assessed the effect of a cash transfer intervention on cognitive aging outcomes in older South African adults. We leveraged the overlap in the sampling frames of a Phase 3 randomized cash transfer trial [HIV Prevention Trial Network (HPTN) 068, 2011-2015] and an aging cohort [Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community (HAALSI), 2014-2022] in rural Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. In 2011/12, young women and their primary caregivers were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive a monthly cash transfer or control. In 2014/2015, 862 adults aged 40+ y living in trial households were enrolled in the HAALSI cohort, with cognitive data collected in three waves over 7 y. We estimated the impact of the intervention on rate of memory decline and dementia probability scores. Memory decline in the cash transfer arm was 0.03 SD units (95% CI: 0.002, 0.05) slower per year than in the control arm. Dementia probability scores were three percentage points lower in the cash transfer arm than the control arm (ß = -0.03; 95% CI: -0.05, -0.001). Effects were consistent across subgroups. A modestly sized household cash transfer delivered over a short period in mid- to later-life led to a meaningful slowing of memory decline and reduction in dementia probability 7 y later. Cash transfer programs could help stem the tide of new dementia cases in economically vulnerable populations in the coming decades.

Impact of the South African Child Support Grant on memory decline and dementia probability in rural and low-income mothers, 2014-2021.

INTRODUCTION: Aging populations across sub-Saharan Africa are rapidly expanding, leading to an increase in the burden of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD). Cash transfer interventions are one plausible mechanism to combat ADRD at a population-level in low-income settings. We exploited exogenous variation in eligibility for South Africa's Child Support Grant (CSG) to estimate the longitudinal association between potential CSG benefit and cognitive trajectories in rural mothers with <10 children (n = 1090). METHODS: South Africa's CSG delivers monthly cash payments to primary caregivers, predominantly mothers, to offset the costs associated with child rearing. This study implemented a quasi-experimental design using data (2014-2022) from a rural, low-income cohort in the Agincourt research area, South Africa. We fit linear mixed effects models and generalized linear models to estimate the association of potential CSG benefit per eligible child with memory decline and dementia probability, respectively. We stratified all models by the mother's total number of children (1-4 and 5-9) and examined effect modification by household wealth and the mother's education level. RESULTS: Having above median CSG per eligible child was associated with higher baseline memory scores (ß = 0.12 SD units, 95% CI = 0.02, 0.22) but steeper memory decline (ß = -0.02 SD units, 95% CI = -0.04, -0.00) compared to below median CSG. Within stratified analyses, this effect was primarily observed among mothers with 5-9 children. No associations were observed between potential CSG per eligible child and dementia probability. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the use of large-scale cash transfers as a promising intervention to promote healthy cognitive aging in mid-life women within rural, low-income settings. However, we found evidence that the CSG in its current structure may not be sufficient support for women to sustain measurable cognitive benefits over the long-term.

Exploring the Relationship Between Anticipated Stigma and Community Shared Concerns about HIV on Defaulting from HIV Care in Rural South Africa.

Although stigma has been associated with people living with HIV defaulting from care, there is a gap in understanding the specific impact of individual stigma and community-level concern about HIV on defaulting. Methods: This is a secondary analysis of a unique dataset that links health facility-based medical records to a population-representative community survey conducted in 2018 in rural Mpumalanga province, South Africa. We used the parametric g-formula to estimate associations among individual anticipated stigma, low perceived community and local leader concern about HIV, and defaulting from care in the prior year. In addition, we estimated the population-level effects of intervening to reduce stigma and increase concern on defaulting. Results: Among 319 participants on treatment, 42 (13.2%) defaulted from care during the prior year. Anticipated stigma (risk ratio [RR] 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72, 2.74), low perceived concern about HIV/AIDS from community leadership (RR 1.12, 95% CI 0.76, 3.38), and low shared concerns about HIV/AIDS in the community (RR 1.37; 95% CI 0.79, 3.07) were not significantly associated with default. Hypothetical population intervention effects to remove individual anticipated stigma and low community concerns yielded small reductions in default (~1% reduction). Conclusions: In this sample, we found limited impact of reducing anticipated stigma and increasing shared concern about HIV on retention in care. Future studies should consider the limitations of this study by examining the influence of other sources of stigma in more detail and assessing how perceptions of stigma and concern impact the full HIV testing and care cascade.

Temporal changes in cause of death among adolescents and adults in six countries in eastern and southern Africa in 1995-2019: a multi-country surveillance study of verbal autopsy data.

BACKGROUND: The absence of high-quality comprehensive civil registration and vital statistics systems across many settings in Africa has led to little empirical data on causes of death in the region. We aimed to use verbal autopsy data to provide comparative, population-based estimates of cause-specific mortality among adolescents and adults in eastern and southern Africa. METHODS: In this surveillance study, we harmonised verbal autopsy and residency data from nine health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) sites in Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, South Africa, Uganda, and Zimbabwe, each with variable coverage from Jan 1, 1995, to Dec 31, 2019. We included all deaths to adolescents and adults aged 12 or over that were residents of the study sites and had a verbal autopsy conducted. InSilicoVA, a probabilistic model, was used to assign cause of death on the basis of the signs and symptoms reported in the verbal autopsy. Levels and trends in all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates and cause-specific mortality fractions were calculated, stratified by HDSS site, sex, age, and calendar periods. FINDINGS: 52 484 deaths and 5 157 802 person-years were reported among 1 071 913 individuals across the nine sites during the study period. 47 961 (91·4%) deaths had a verbal autopsy, of which 46 570 (97·1%) were assigned a cause of death. All-cause mortality generally decreased across the HDSS sites during this period, particularly for adults aged 20-59 years. In many of the HDSS sites, these decreases were driven by reductions in HIV and tuberculosis-related deaths. In 2010-14, the top causes of death were: road traffic accidents, HIV or tuberculosis, and meningitis or sepsis in adolescents (12-19 years); HIV or tuberculosis in adults aged 20-59 years; and neoplasms and cardiovascular disease in adults aged 60 years and older. There was greater between-HDSS and between-sex variation in causes of death for adolescents compared with adults. INTERPRETATION: This study shows progress in reducing mortality across eastern and southern Africa but also highlights age, sex, within-HDSS, and between-HDSS differences in causes of adolescent and adult deaths. These findings highlight the importance of detailed local data to inform health needs to ensure continued improvements in survival. FUNDING: National Institute of Child Health and Human Development of the US National Institutes of Health.

Local Network Interaction as a Mechanism for Wealth Inequality.

Given limited institutional resources, low-income populations often rely on social networks to improve their socioeconomic outcomes. However, it remains in question whether small-scale social interactions could affect large-scale economic inequalities in under-resourced contexts. Here, we leverage population-level data from one of the poorest South African settings to construct a large-scale, geographically defined, inter-household social network. Using a multilevel network model, we show that having social ties in close geographic proximity is associated with stable household asset conditions, while geographically distant ties correlate to changes in asset allocation. Notably, we find that localised network interactions are associated with an increase in wealth inequality at the regional level, demonstrating how macro-level inequality may arise from micro-level social processes. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding complex social connections underpinning inter-household resource dynamics, and raise the potential of large-scale social assistance programs to reduce disparities in resource-ownership by accounting for local social constraints.

Mid-Life Household Food Insecurity and Subsequent Memory Function and Rate of Decline in Rural South Africa, 2004-2022.

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to investigate mid-life food insecurity over time in relation to subsequent memory function and rate of decline in Agincourt, rural South Africa. METHODS: Data from the longitudinal Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (Agincourt HDSS) were linked to the population-representative Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa (HAALSI). Food insecurity (yes vs. no) and food insecurity intensity (never/rarely/sometimes vs. often/very often) in the past month were assessed every 3 years from 2004 to 2013 in Agincourt HDSS. Cumulative exposure to each food insecurity measure was operationalized as 0, 1, and ≥2 time points. Episodic memory was assessed from 2014/15 to 2021/22 in HAALSI. Mixed-effects linear regression models were fitted to investigate the associations of each food insecurity measure with memory function and rate of decline over time. RESULTS: A total of 3,186 participants (mean age [SD] in 2004: 53 [12.87]; range: 30-96) were included and 1,173 (36%) participants experienced food insecurity in 2004, while this figure decreased to 490 (15%) in 2007, 489 (15%) in 2010, and 150 (5%) in 2013. Experiencing food insecurity at one time point (vs. never) from 2004 to 2013 was associated with lower baseline memory function (ß = -0.095; 95% CI: -0.159 to -0.032) in 2014/15 but not rate of memory decline. Higher intensity of food insecurity at ≥2 time points (vs. never) was associated with lower baseline memory function (ß = -0.154, 95% CI: -0.338 to 0.028), although the estimate was imprecise. Other frequencies of food insecurity and food insecurity intensity were not associated with memory function or decline in the fully adjusted models. CONCLUSION: In this setting, mid-life food insecurity may be a risk factor for lower later-life memory function, but not decline.

The Impact of Old Age Pension Eligibility on Alcohol Consumption: Evidence From a Population-Based Study in Rural South Africa.

Background and Objectives: Alcohol causes more than 3 million deaths a year globally and contributes to over 5% of global disease and injury. Heavy drinking and alcohol use disorders among older adults have increased in the last 10-15 years. For individuals living in low-income countries, where wages are low and unemployment is high, old age pensions may provide a significant increase in household income. In turn, the receipt of supplementary income may increase spending on alcohol. Earlier life factors and socioeconomic status may affect alcohol consumption, making it difficult to directly assess the impact of income on alcohol consumption. This study reduces the potential for endogeneity with other life factors by exploiting an exogenous increase in income from old age pensions to isolate the impact of extra income on alcohol consumption for older adults. Research Design and Methods: We used a regression discontinuity design to assess changes in drinking patterns among rural, low-income adults who were 3 years below and 3 years above South Africa's Old Age Pension Grant eligibility threshold (age 60). We assessed this relationship separately by gender and for employed and unemployed individuals. Results: We observed a significantly increased alcohol use associated with the Old Age Pension Grant eligibility for employed men (ß = 4.57, 95% confidence interval: 1.72-12.14). We did not observe this same trend for unemployed men or for women. Discussion and Implications: The analysis in this study indicates that increased income from reaching the pension eligibility age may contribute to an increase in alcohol consumption for employed men. Interventions, such as informational campaigns on the risks of alcohol consumption for older adults or age-appropriate health interventions to help individuals reduce alcohol consumption, targeted around the time of pension eligibility age for employed men may help to reduce alcohol-related harms in low-income, rural sub-Saharan African settings.

Mortality variability and differentials by age and causes of death in rural South Africa, 1994-2018.

INTRODUCTION: Understanding mortality variability by age and cause is critical to identifying intervention and prevention actions to support disadvantaged populations. We assessed mortality changes in two rural South African populations over 25 years covering pre-AIDS and peak AIDS epidemic and subsequent antiretroviral therapy (ART) availability. METHODS: Using population surveillance data from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (AHDSS; 1994-2018) and Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI; 2000-2018) for 5-year periods, we calculated life expectancy from birth to age 85, mortality age distributions and variation, and life-years lost (LYL) decomposed into four cause-of-death groups. RESULTS: The AIDS epidemic shifted the age-at-death distribution to younger ages and increased LYL. For AHDSS, between 1994-1998 and 1999-2003 LYL increased for females from 13.6 years (95% CI 12.7 to 14.4) to 22.1 (95% CI 21.2 to 23.0) and for males from 19.9 (95% CI 18.8 to 20.8) to 27.1 (95% CI 26.2 to 28.0). AHRI LYL in 2000-2003 was extremely high (females=40.7 years (95% CI 39.8 to 41.5), males=44.8 years (95% CI 44.1 to 45.5)). Subsequent widespread ART availability reduced LYL (2014-2018) for women (AHDSS=15.7 (95% CI 15.0 to 16.3); AHRI=22.4 (95% CI 21.7 to 23.1)) and men (AHDSS=21.2 (95% CI 20.5 to 22.0); AHRI=27.4 (95% CI 26.7 to 28.2)), primarily due to reduced HIV/AIDS/TB deaths in mid-life and other communicable disease deaths in children. External causes increased as a proportion of LYL for men (2014-2018: AHRI=25%, AHDSS=17%). The share of AHDSS LYL 2014-2018 due to non-communicable diseases exceeded pre-HIV levels: females=43%; males=40%. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight shifting burdens in cause-specific LYL and persistent mortality differentials in two populations experiencing complex epidemiological transitions. Results show high contributions of child deaths to LYL at the height of the AIDS epidemic. Reductions in LYL were primarily driven by lowered HIV/AIDS/TB and other communicable disease mortality during the ART periods. LYL differentials persist despite widespread ART availability, highlighting the contributions of other communicable diseases in children, HIV/AIDS/TB and external causes in mid-life and non-communicable diseases in older ages.

Child support grant expansion and cognitive function among women in rural South Africa: Findings from a natural experiment in the HAALSI cohort.

BACKGROUND: Cash transfers are a promising but understudied intervention that may protect cognitive function in adults. Although South Africa has a rapidly ageing population, little is known about the nature of association between cash transfers and cognitive function in this setting. OBJECTIVES: We leveraged age-eligibility expansions to South Africa's Child Support Grant (CSG) to investigate the association between duration of CSG eligibility and cognitive function of biological mothers of child beneficiaries in South Africa. METHODS: We analysed 2014/2015 baseline data from 944 women, aged 40-59 years with at least one CSG-eligible child, enrolled in the population-representative HAALSI cohort in Agincourt, South Africa. Duration of CSG eligibility for each mother was calculated based on the birth dates of all their children and the CSG age-eligibility expansion years (2003-2012). Cognitive function was measured using a cognitive battery administered at the HAALSI baseline interview. Linear regression was used to estimate the association between duration of CSG eligibility, dichotomized as low (≤10 years) and high (>10 years) eligibility, and cognitive function z-scores of the mothers. RESULTS: High vs. low duration of CSG eligibility, was associated with higher cognitive function z-scores in the full sample [ß: 0.15 SD units; 95% CI: 0.04, 0.26; p-value = 0.01]. In mothers with one to four lifetime children, but not five or more, high vs. low duration of CSG eligibility, was associated with higher cognitive function z-scores [ß: 0.19 SD units; 95% CI: 0.05, 0.34, p-value = 0.02]. CONCLUSION: Government cash transfers given to support raising children may confer substantial protective effects on the subsequent cognitive function of mothers. Further studies are needed to understand how parity may influence this relationship. Our findings bring evidence to policymakers for designing income supplementation programmes to promote healthy cognitive ageing in low-income settings.

The Association Between Alcohol Use and Chronic Diseases' Treatment Outcomes Among Adults Aged 40 Years and Above in Rural South Africa.

Chronic diseases are significant problems in South Africa. Chronic diseases' treatment outcomes are critical to the reduction of morbidity and mortality. There is limited data in South Africa on alcohol use and treatment outcomes of chronic diseases in older people. We analysed data from wave 1 of the Health and Ageing in Africa-a longitudinal Study in an INDEPTH community (HAALSI) study. We performed descriptive analysis to determine the prevalence of optimal chronic diseases' treatment outcomes (suppressed HIV viral load, normal blood pressure and normal blood sugar) and applied multivariate modified Poisson regression to determine the association between alcohol use and chronic diseases' treatment outcomes. The prevalence of optimal treatment outcomes were 87.4% for HIV, 42.7% for hypertension, 53.6% for diabetes mellitus and 52.4% for multimorbidity. Alcohol use did not negatively impact the treatment outcomes for HIV (aRR=1.00, 95%CI:0.93-1.09), hypertension (aRR=0.88, 95%CI:0.68-1.14), diabetes mellitus (aRR=0.73, 95%CI:0.44-1.22), and multimorbidity (aRR=1.00, 95%CI:0.93-1.09). Alcohol use was not significantly associated with treatment outcomes possibly due to underreporting of alcohol use. There is need to incorporate objective alcohol measurements in chronic diseases care settings. Furthermore, there is urgent need to strengthen the management of hypertension and diabetes, by adopting the strategies deployed for HIV management.

Mid-life employment trajectories and subsequent memory function and rate of decline in rural South Africa, 2000-22.

AIM: To investigate mid-life employment trajectories in relation to later-life memory function and rate of decline in rural South Africa. METHODS: Data from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System were linked to the 'Health and Ageing in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa' (HAALSI) in rural Agincourt, South Africa (N = 3133). Employment was assessed every 4 years over 2000-12 as being employed (0, 1, 2 and ≥3 time points), being employed in a higher-skill occupation (0, 1, 2 and ≥3 time points) and dynamic employment trajectories identified using sequence analysis. Latent memory z-scores were assessed over 2014-22. Mixed-effects linear regression models were fitted to examine the associations of interest. RESULTS: Sustained mid-life employment from 2000-12 (ß = 0.052, 95% CI: -0.028 to 0.132, 1 vs 0 time points; ß = 0.163, 95% CI: 0.077 to 0.250, 2 vs 0 time points; ß = 0.212, 95% CI: 0.128 to 0.296, ≥3 vs 0 time points) and greater time spent in a higher-skill occupation (ß = 0.077, 95% CI: -0.020 to 0.175, 1 vs 0 time points; ß = 0.241, 95% CI: 0.070 to 0.412, 2 vs 0 time points; ß = 0.361, 95% CI: 0.201 to 0.520, ≥3 vs 0 time points) were associated with higher memory scores in 2014/15, but not subsequent rate of memory decline. Moving from a lower-skill to higher-skill occupation was associated with higher memory function, but a faster rate of decline over 2014-22. CONCLUSIONS: Sustained mid-life employment, particularly in higher-skill occupations, may contribute to later-life memory function in this post-Apartheid South African setting.

Understanding Household Dynamics From the Ground Up: A Longitudinal Study From a Rural South African Setting.

Investigations into household structure in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) provide important insight into how families manage domestic life in response to resource allocation and caregiving needs during periods of rapid sociopolitical and health-related challenges. Recent evidence on household structure in many LMICs contrasts with long-standing viewpoints of worldwide convergence to a Western nuclearized household model. Here, we adopt a household-centered theoretical and methodological framework to investigate longitudinal patterns and dynamics of household structure in a rural South African setting during a period of high AIDS-related mortality and socioeconomic change. Data come from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (2003-2015). Using latent transition models, we derived six distinct household types by examining conditional interdependency between household heads' characteristics, members' age composition, and migration status. More than half of households were characterized by their complex and multigenerational profiles, with considerable within-typology variation in household size and dependency structure. Transition analyses showed stability of household types under female headship, while higher proportions of nuclearized household types dissolved over time. Household dissolution was closely linked to prior mortality experiences-particularly, following death of a male head. Our findings highlight the need to better conceptualize and contextualize household changes across populations and over time.

The Heart of the World.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of mortality globally. Of the 20.5 million CVD-related deaths in 2021, approximately 80% occurred in low- and middle-income countries. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study, NCD Risk Factor Collaboration, NCD Countdown initiative, WHO Global Health Observatory, and WHO Global Health Expenditure database, we present the burden of CVDs, associated risk factors, their association with national health expenditures, and an index of critical policy implementation. The Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia region face the highest levels of CVD mortality globally. Although CVD mortality levels are generally lower in women than men, this is not true in almost 30% of countries in the North Africa and Middle East and Sub-Saharan regions. Raised blood pressure remains the leading global CVD risk factor, contributing to 10.8 million deaths in 2019. The regions with the highest proportion of countries achieving the maximum score for the WHF Policy Index were South Asia, Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia, and the High-Income regions. The Sub-Saharan Africa region had the highest proportion of countries scoring two or less. Policymakers must assess their country's risk factor profile to craft effective strategies for CVD prevention and management. Fundamental strategies such as the implementation of National Tobacco Control Programmes, ensuring the availability of CVD medications, and establishing specialised units within health ministries to tackle non-communicable diseases should be embraced in all countries. Adequate healthcare system funding is equally vital, ensuring reasonable access to care for all communities.

Pregnancy-related mortality up to 1 year postpartum in sub-Saharan Africa: an analysis of verbal autopsy data from six countries.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the causes of death for women who died during pregnancy and within the first 42 days postpartum with those of women who died between >42 days and within 1 year postpartum. DESIGN: Open population cohort (Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems). SETTING: Ten Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) in The Gambia, Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, Ethiopia and South Africa. POPULATION: 2114 deaths which occurred within 1 year of the end of pregnancy where a verbal autopsy interview was conducted from 2000 to 2019. METHODS: InterVA5 and InSilicoVA verbal autopsy algorithms were used to attribute the most likely underlying cause of death, which were grouped according to adapted International Classification of Diseases-Maternal Mortality categories. Multinomial regression was used to compare differences in causes of deaths within 42 days versus 43-365 days postpartum adjusting for HDSS and time period (2000-2009 and 2010-2019). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cause of death and the verbal autopsy Circumstances of Mortality Categories (COMCATs). RESULTS: Of 2114 deaths, 1212 deaths occurred within 42 days postpartum and 902 between 43 and 365 days postpartum. Compared with deaths within 42 days, deaths from HIV and TB, other infectious diseases, and non-communicable diseases constituted a significantly larger proportion of late pregnancy-related deaths beyond 42 days postpartum, and health system failures were important in the circumstances of those deaths. The contribution of HIV and TB to deaths beyond 42 days postpartum was greatest in Southern Africa. The causes of pregnancy-related mortality within and beyond 42 days postpartum did not change significantly between 2000-2009 and 2010-2019. CONCLUSIONS: Cause of death data from the extended postpartum period are critical to inform prevention. The dominance of HIV and TB, other infectious and non-communicable diseases to (late) pregnancy-related mortality highlights the need for better integration of non-obstetric care with ante-, intra- and postpartum care in high-burden settings.

Agreement between cause of death assignment by computer-coded verbal autopsy methods and physician coding of verbal autopsy interviews in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: The South African national cause of death validation (NCODV 2017/18) project collected a national sample of verbal autopsies (VA) with cause of death (COD) assignment by physician-coded VA (PCVA) and computer-coded VA (CCVA). OBJECTIVE: The performance of three CCVA algorithms (InterVA-5, InSilicoVA and Tariff 2.0) in assigning a COD was compared with PCVA (reference standard). METHODS: Seven performance metrics assessed individual and population level agreement of COD assignment by age, sex and place of death subgroups. Positive predictive value (PPV), sensitivity, overall agreement, kappa, and chance corrected concordance (CCC) assessed individual level agreement. Cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy and Spearman's rank correlation assessed population level agreement. RESULTS: A total of 5386 VA records were analysed. PCVA and CCVAs all identified HIV/AIDS as the leading COD. CCVA PPV and sensitivity, based on confidence intervals, were comparable except for HIV/AIDS, TB, maternal, diabetes mellitus, other cancers, and some injuries. CCVAs performed well for identifying perinatal deaths, road traffic accidents, suicide and homicide but poorly for pneumonia, other infectious diseases and renal failure. Overall agreement between CCVAs and PCVA for the top single cause (48.2-51.6) indicated comparable weak agreement between methods. Overall agreement, for the top three causes showed moderate agreement for InterVA (70.9) and InSilicoVA (73.8). Agreement based on kappa (-0.05-0.49)and CCC (0.06-0.43) was weak to none for all algorithms and groups. CCVAs had moderate to strong agreement for CSMF accuracy, with InterVA-5 highest for neonates (0.90), Tariff 2.0 highest for adults (0.89) and males (0.84), and InSilicoVA highest for females (0.88), elders (0.83) and out-of-facility deaths (0.85). Rank correlation indicated moderate agreement for adults (0.75-0.79). CONCLUSIONS: Whilst CCVAs identified HIV/AIDS as the leading COD, consistent with PCVA, there is scope for improving the algorithms for use in South Africa.

Understanding the effects of universal test and treat on longitudinal HIV care outcomes among South African youth: a retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Little is known about the effects of universal test and treat (UTT) policies on HIV care outcomes among youth living with HIV (YLHIV). Moreover, there is a paucity of information regarding when YLHIV are most susceptible to disengagement from care under the newest treatment guidelines. The longitudinal HIV care continuum is an underutilized tool that can provide a holistic understanding of population-level HIV care trajectories and be used to compare treatment outcomes across groups. We aimed to explore effects of the UTT policy on longitudinal outcomes among South African YLHIV and identify temporally precise opportunities for re-engaging this priority population in the UTT era. METHODS: Using medical record data, we conducted a retrospective cohort study among youth aged 18-24 diagnosed with HIV from August 2015-December 2018 in nine health care facilities in South Africa. We used Fine and Gray sub-distribution proportional hazards models to characterize longitudinal care continuum outcomes in the population overall and stratified by treatment era of diagnosis. We estimated the proportion of individuals in each stage of the continuum over time and the restricted mean time spent in each stage in the first year following diagnosis. Sub-group estimates were compared using differences. RESULTS: A total of 420 YLHIV were included. By day 365 following diagnosis, just 23% of individuals had no 90-or-more-day lapse in care and were virally suppressed. Those diagnosed in the UTT era spent less time as ART-naïve (mean difference=-19.3 days; 95% CI: -27.7, -10.9) and more time virally suppressed (mean difference = 17.7; 95% CI: 1.0, 34.4) compared to those diagnosed pre-UTT. Most individuals who were diagnosed in the UTT era and experienced a 90-or-more-day lapse in care disengaged between diagnosis and linkage to care or ART initiation and viral suppression. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of UTT yielded modest improvements in time spent on ART and virally suppressed among South African YLHIV- however, meeting UNAIDS' 95-95-95 targets remains a challenge. Retention in care and re-engagement interventions that can be implemented between diagnosis and linkage to care and between ART initiation and viral suppression (e.g., longitudinal counseling) may be particularly important to improving care outcomes among South African YLHIV in the UTT era.