Upstrapping to determine futility: predicting future outcomes nonparametrically from past data.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials often involve some form of interim monitoring to determine futility before planned trial completion. While many options for interim monitoring exist (e.g., alpha-spending, conditional power), nonparametric based interim monitoring methods are also needed to account for more complex trial designs and analyses. The upstrap is one recently proposed nonparametric method that may be applied for interim monitoring. METHODS: Upstrapping is motivated by the case resampling bootstrap and involves repeatedly sampling with replacement from the interim data to simulate thousands of fully enrolled trials. The p-value is calculated for each upstrapped trial and the proportion of upstrapped trials for which the p-value criteria are met is compared with a pre-specified decision threshold. To evaluate the potential utility for upstrapping as a form of interim futility monitoring, we conducted a simulation study considering different sample sizes with several different proposed calibration strategies for the upstrap. We first compared trial rejection rates across a selection of threshold combinations to validate the upstrapping method. Then, we applied upstrapping methods to simulated clinical trial data, directly comparing their performance with more traditional alpha-spending and conditional power interim monitoring methods for futility. RESULTS: The method validation demonstrated that upstrapping is much more likely to find evidence of futility in the null scenario than the alternative across a variety of simulations settings. Our three proposed approaches for calibration of the upstrap had different strengths depending on the stopping rules used. Compared to O'Brien-Fleming group sequential methods, upstrapped approaches had type I error rates that differed by at most 1.7% and expected sample size was 2-22% lower in the null scenario, while in the alternative scenario power fluctuated between 15.7% lower and 0.2% higher and expected sample size was 0-15% lower. CONCLUSIONS: In this proof-of-concept simulation study, we evaluated the potential for upstrapping as a resampling-based method for futility monitoring in clinical trials. The trade-offs in expected sample size, power, and type I error rate control indicate that the upstrap can be calibrated to implement futility monitoring with varying degrees of aggressiveness and that performance similarities can be identified relative to considered alpha-spending and conditional power futility monitoring methods.

Laryngeal Recalibration Therapy Improves Laryngopharyngeal Symptoms in Patients With Suspected Laryngopharyngeal Reflux Disease.

INTRODUCTION: Laryngopharyngeal symptoms such as cough, throat clearing, voice change, paradoxic vocal fold movement, or laryngospasm are hyper-responsive behaviors resulting from local irritation (e.g., refluxate) and heightened sympathetic tone. Laryngeal recalibration therapy (LRT) guided by a speech-language pathologist (SLP) provides mechanical desensitization and cognitive recalibration to suppress hyper-responsive laryngeal patterns. The aim of this study was to assess symptom response to LRT among patients with chronic laryngopharyngeal symptoms undergoing evaluation of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). METHODS: Adults with chronic laryngopharyngeal symptoms referred for evaluation of GERD to a single center were prospectively followed. Inclusion criteria included ≥2 SLP-directed LRT sessions. Data from endoscopy, ambulatory reflux monitoring, and patient-reported outcomes were collected when available. The primary outcome was symptom response. RESULTS: Sixty-five participants completed LRT: mean age 55.4 years (SD 17.2), 46 (71%) female, mean body mass index 25.6 kg/m 2 (6.8), and mean of 3.7 (1.9) LRT sessions. Overall, 55 participants (85%) met criteria for symptom response. Specifically, symptom response was similar between those with isolated laryngopharyngeal symptoms (13/15, 87%) and concomitant laryngopharyngeal/esophageal symptoms (42/50, 84%). Among participants who underwent reflux monitoring, symptom response was similar between those with proven, inconclusive for, and no GERD (18/21 [86%], 8/9 [89%], 10/13 [77%]). DISCUSSION: Eighty-five percent of patients with chronic laryngopharyngeal symptoms referred for GERD evaluation who underwent LRT-experienced laryngeal symptom response. Rates of symptom response were maintained across patients with or without proven GERD and patients with or without concomitant esophageal reflux symptoms. SLP-directed LRT is an effective approach to incorporate into multidisciplinary management of chronic laryngopharyngeal symptoms/laryngopharyngeal reflux disease.

Low-risk pneumatosis intestinalis in the pediatric surgical population.

BACKGROUND: Pneumatosis intestinalis (PI, presence of air in bowel wall) develops in a variety of settings and due to a variety of insults which is then characterized by varying severity and clinical course. Anecdotally, many of these cases are benign with few clinical sequelae; however, we lack evidence-based guidelines to help guide management of such lower-risk cases. We aimed to describe the clinical entity of low-risk PI, characterize the population of children who develop this form of PI, determine if management approach or clinical outcomes differed depending on the managing physician's field of practice, and finally determine if a shortened course of NPO and antibiotics was safe in the population of children with low-risk PI. METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of all children over age 1 year treated at Children's Hospital Colorado (CHCO), between 2009 and 2019 with a diagnosis of PI who did not also have a diagnosis of cancer or history of bone marrow transplant (BMT). Data including demographic variables, clinical course, and outcomes were obtained from the electronic medical record. Low-risk criteria included no need for ICU admission, vasopressor use, or urgent surgical intervention. RESULTS: Ninety-one children were treated for their first episode of PI during the study period, 72 of whom met our low-risk criteria. Among the low-risk group, rates of complications including hemodynamic decompensation during treatment, PI recurrence, Clostridium difficile colitis, and death did not differ between those who received 3 days or less of antibiotics and those who received more than 3 days of antibiotics. Outcomes also did not differ between children cared for by surgeons or pediatricians. CONCLUSIONS: Here, we define low-risk PI as that which occurs in children over age 1 who do not have a prior diagnosis of cancer or prior BMT and who do not require ICU admission, vasopressor administration, or urgent surgical intervention. It is likely safe to treat these children with only 3 days of antibiotic therapy and NPO. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III.

Validated Clinical Score to Predict Gastroesophageal Reflux in Patients With Chronic Laryngeal Symptoms: COuGH RefluX.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Discerning whether laryngeal symptoms result from gastroesophageal reflux is clinically challenging and a reliable tool to stratify patients is needed. We aimed to develop and validate a model to predict the likelihood of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) among patients with chronic laryngeal symptoms. METHODS: This multicenter international study collected data from adults with chronic laryngeal symptoms who underwent objective testing (upper gastrointestinal endoscopy and/or ambulatory reflux monitoring) between March 2018 and May 2023. The training phase identified a model with optimal receiver operating characteristic curves, and ß coefficients informed a weighted model. The validation phase assessed performance characteristics of the weighted model. RESULTS: A total of 856 adults, 304 in the training cohort and 552 in the validation cohort, were included. In the training phase, the optimal predictive model (area under the curve, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.62-0.74), was the Cough, Overweight/obesity, Globus, Hiatal Hernia, Regurgitation, and male seX (COuGH RefluX) score, with a lower threshold of 2.5 and an upper threshold of 5.0 to predict proven GERD. In the validation phase, the COuGH RefluX score had an area under the curve of 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.71), with 79% sensitivity and 81% specificity for proven GERD. CONCLUSIONS: The externally validated COuGH RefluX score is a clinically practical model to predict the likelihood of proven GERD. The score classifies most patients with chronic laryngeal symptoms as low/high likelihood of proven GERD, with only 38% remaining as indeterminate. Thus, the COuGH RefluX score can guide diagnostic strategies and reduce inappropriate proton pump inhibitor use or testing for patients referred for evaluation of chronic laryngeal symptoms.

A practical guide to adopting Bayesian analyses in clinical research.

Background: Bayesian statistical approaches are extensively used in new statistical methods but have not been adopted at the same rate in clinical and translational (C&T) research. The goal of this paper is to accelerate the transition of new methods into practice by improving the C&T researcher's ability to gain confidence in interpreting and implementing Bayesian analyses. Methods: We developed a Bayesian data analysis plan and implemented that plan for a two-arm clinical trial comparing the effectiveness of a new opioid in reducing time to discharge from the post-operative anesthesia unit and nerve block usage in surgery. Through this application, we offer a brief tutorial on Bayesian methods and exhibit how to apply four Bayesian statistical packages from STATA, SAS, and RStan to conduct linear and logistic regression analyses in clinical research. Results: The analysis results in our application were robust to statistical package and consistent across a wide range of prior distributions. STATA was the most approachable package for linear regression but was more limited in the models that could be fitted and easily summarized. SAS and R offered more straightforward documentation and data management for the posteriors. They also offered direct programming of the likelihood making them more easily extendable to complex problems. Conclusion: Bayesian analysis is now accessible to a broad range of data analysts and should be considered in more C&T research analyses. This will allow C&T research teams the ability to adopt and interpret Bayesian methodology in more complex problems where Bayesian approaches are often needed.

Intraoperative neurophysiological monitoring and spinal cord stimulator implantation.

INTRODUCTION: Spinal cord injury (SCI) is one of the most dreaded complications after spinal cord stimulation (SCS) implantation surgery. As a result, intraoperative neurophysiological monitoring (IONM) has been proposed to avoid accidental damage to nervous structures under anesthesia and confirm positioning for optimal stimulation. Our study uses a large administrative claims database to determine the 30-day risk of SCI after SCS implantation. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used the IBM MarketScan Commercial and Medicare Supplemental Databases from 2016 to 2019. Adult patients undergoing SCS surgical procedures with at least 90 days of follow-up, IONM use, the type of sedation used during the procedure, and subsequent SCI were identified using administrative codes. In addition, logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between various risk factors and subsequent SCI. RESULTS: A total of 9676 patients underwent SCS surgery (64.7% percutaneous implants) during the study period. Nine hundred and forty-four (9.75%) patients underwent SCS implantation with IONM. Conscious sedation, Monitored Anesthesia Care anesthesia, and general anesthesia were used in patients with 0.9%, 60.2%, and 28.6%, respectively. Eighty-one (0.8%) patients developed SCI within 30 days after SCS implant surgery. The SCI rate was higher in the group that underwent IONM (2% vs 0.7%, p value <0.001) during the implantation procedure, reflecting the underlying risk. After adjustment for other factors, the OR of SCI is 2.39 (95% CI: 1.33 to 4.14, p value=0.002) times higher for those with IONM than those without IONM. CONCLUSIONS: Increased SCI risk among patients with IONM likely reflects higher baseline risk, and further research is needed for risk mitigation.

Esophageal anatomy and physiology vary across spastic and non-spastic phenotypes of disorders of esophagogastric junction outflow.

BACKGROUND: Pathophysiologic mechanisms of disorders of esophagogastric junction (EGJ) outflow are poorly understood. We aimed to compare anatomic and physiologic characteristics among patients with disorders of EGJ outflow and normal motility. METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated adult patients with achalasia types 1, 2, 3, EGJ outflow obstruction (EGJOO) or normal motility on high-resolution manometry who underwent endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) from January 2019 to August 2022. Thickened circular muscle was defined as ≥1.6 mm. Characteristics from barium esophagram (BE) and functional lumen imaging probe (FLIP) were additionally assessed. KEY RESULTS: Of 71 patients (mean age 56.2 years; 49% male), there were 8 (11%) normal motility, 58 (82%) had achalasia (5 (7%) type 1, 32 (45%) classic type 2, 21 (30%) type 3 [including 12 type 2 with FEPs]), and 7 (7%) had EGJOO. A significantly greater proportion of type 3 achalasia had thickened distal circular muscle (76.2%) versus normal motility (0%; p < 0.001) or type 2 achalasia (25%; p < 0.001). Type 1 achalasia had significantly wider mean maximum esophageal diameter on BE (57.8 mm) compared to type 2 achalasia (32.8 mm), type 3 achalasia (23.4 mm), EGJOO (15.9 mm), and normal motility (13.5 mm). 100% type 3 achalasia versus 0% type 1 achalasia/normal motility had tertiary contractions on BE. Mean EGJ distensibility index on FLIP was lower for type 3 achalasia (1.2 mmHg/mm2 ) and EGJOO (1.2 mmHg/mm2 ) versus type 2 (2.3 mmHg/mm2 ) and type 1 achalasia (2.9 mmHg/mm2 ). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest distinct pathologic pathways may exist: type 3 achalasia and EGJOO may represent a spastic outflow phenotype consisting of a thickened, spastic circular muscle, which is distinct from type 1 and 2 achalasia consisting of a thin caliber circular muscle layer with more prominent esophageal dilation.

Diagnostic Yield of Ambulatory Reflux Monitoring Systems for Evaluation of Chronic Laryngeal Symptoms.

INTRODUCTION: Among patients with chronic laryngeal symptoms, ambulatory reflux monitoring off acid suppression is recommended to evaluate for laryngopharyngeal reflux (LPR). However, reflux monitoring systems are diverse in configuration and monitoring capabilities, which present a challenge in creating a diagnostic reference standard in these patients. This study aimed to compare diagnostic yield and performance between reflux monitoring systems in patients with chronic laryngeal symptoms. METHODS: This multicenter, international study of adult patients referred for evaluation of LPR over a 5-year period (March 2018-May 2023) assessed and compared diagnostic yield of pathologic gastroesophageal reflux (GER+) on ambulatory reflux monitoring off acid suppression. RESULTS: Of 813 patients, 296 (36%) underwent prolonged wireless pH, 532 (65%) underwent 24-hour pH-impedance monitoring, and 15 (2%) underwent both tests. Overall diagnostic yield for GER+ was 36% and greater for prolonged wireless pH compared with that for 24-hour pH-impedance monitoring (50% vs 27%; P < 0.01). Among 15 patients who underwent both prolonged wireless pH and 24-h pH-impedance monitoring, concordance between systems for GER+ was 40%. The most common source of discordance was strong evidence of GER+ across multiple days on prolonged wireless pH compared with no evidence of GER+ on pH-impedance. DISCUSSION: In this multicenter international study of patients with chronic laryngeal symptoms referred for LPR evaluation, diagnostic yield of ambulatory reflux monitoring off acid suppression was 36% and rose to 50% when using wireless pH monitoring. In patients referred for chronic laryngeal symptoms, 24-hour pH-impedance monitoring may risk a low negative predictive value in patients with unproven GER+ disease.

Effects of cohort, genotype, variant, and maternal ß-blocker treatment on foetal heart rate predictors of inherited long QT syndrome.

AIMS: In long QT syndrome (LQTS), primary prevention improves outcome; thus, early identification is key. The most common LQTS phenotype is a foetal heart rate (FHR) < 3rd percentile for gestational age (GA) but the effects of cohort, genotype, variant, and maternal ß-blocker therapy on FHR are unknown. We assessed the influence of these factors on FHR in pregnancies with familial LQTS and developed a FHR/GA threshold for LQTS. METHODS AND RESULTS: In an international cohort of pregnancies in which one parent had LQTS, LQTS genotype, familial variant, and maternal ß-blocker effects on FHR were assessed. We developed a testing algorithm for LQTS using FHR and GA as continuous predictors. Data included 1966 FHRs at 7-42 weeks' GA from 267 pregnancies/164 LQTS families [220 LQTS type 1 (LQT1), 35 LQTS type 2 (LQT2), and 12 LQTS type 3 (LQT3)]. The FHRs were significantly lower in LQT1 and LQT2 but not LQT3 or LQTS negative. The LQT1 variants with non-nonsense and severe function loss (current density or ß-adrenergic response) had lower FHR. Maternal ß-blockers potentiated bradycardia in LQT1 and LQT2 but did not affect FHR in LQTS negative. A FHR/GA threshold predicted LQT1 and LQT2 with 74.9% accuracy, 71% sensitivity, and 81% specificity. CONCLUSION: Genotype, LQT1 variant, and maternal ß-blocker therapy affect FHR. A predictive threshold of FHR/GA significantly improves the accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity for LQT1 and LQT2, above the infant's a priori 50% probability. We speculate this model may be useful in screening for LQTS in perinatal subjects without a known LQTS family history.

Guidance on interim analysis methods in clinical trials.

Interim analyses in clinical trials can take on a multitude of forms. They are often used to guide Data and Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) recommendations to study teams regarding recruitment targets for large, later-phase clinical trials. As collaborative biostatisticians working and teaching in multiple fields of research and across a broad array of trial phases, we note the large heterogeneity and confusion surrounding interim analyses in clinical trials. Thus, in this paper, we aim to provide a general overview and guidance on interim analyses for a nonstatistical audience. We explain each of the following types of interim analyses: efficacy, futility, safety, and sample size re-estimation, and we provide the reader with reasoning, examples, and implications for each. We emphasize that while the types of interim analyses employed may differ depending on the nature of the study, we would always recommend prespecification of the interim analytic plan to the extent possible with risk mitigation and trial integrity remaining a priority. Finally, we posit that interim analyses should be used as tools to help the DSMB make informed decisions in the context of the overarching study. They should generally not be deemed binding, and they should not be reviewed in isolation.

Recent innovations in adaptive trial designs: A review of design opportunities in translational research.

Clinical trials are constantly evolving in the context of increasingly complex research questions and potentially limited resources. In this review article, we discuss the emergence of "adaptive" clinical trials that allow for the preplanned modification of an ongoing clinical trial based on the accumulating evidence with application across translational research. These modifications may include terminating a trial before completion due to futility or efficacy, re-estimating the needed sample size to ensure adequate power, enriching the target population enrolled in the study, selecting across multiple treatment arms, revising allocation ratios used for randomization, or selecting the most appropriate endpoint. Emerging topics related to borrowing information from historic or supplemental data sources, sequential multiple assignment randomized trials (SMART), master protocol and seamless designs, and phase I dose-finding studies are also presented. Each design element includes a brief overview with an accompanying case study to illustrate the design method in practice. We close with brief discussions relating to the statistical considerations for these contemporary designs.

What is the role of neutropenia in pediatric cancer patients with pneumatosis intestinalis?

BACKGROUND: We aimed to identify prognostic indicators in pneumatosis intestinalis (PI) in a pediatric oncology population. We hypothesized that neutropenia would be an independent risk factor for adverse outcomes, including the need for abdominal operation to treat PI and for the development of recurrent PI. METHODS: We performed a retrospective review of all patients treated for PI between 2009 and 2019 with a diagnosis of cancer or history of bone marrow transplant (BMT). RESULTS: Sixty-eight children were treated for their first episode of PI; 15 (22%) were not neutropenic at presentation; eight underwent urgent abdominal operation (12%). Patients with neutropenia were more likely to receive TPN, had a longer course of NPO, and received a longer course of antibiotics. Neutropenia at presentation was associated with a decreased risk of PI recurrence (40% vs 13%, p = 0.03). Children who required an abdominal operation were more likely to require vasopressors at diagnosis (50% vs 10%, p = 0.013). CONCLUSIONS: Among pediatric cancer patients, need for vasopressors at the time of PI is a marker of severe PI, with increased likelihood of requiring operative intervention. The presence of neutropenia is associated with lower rates of PI recurrence. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level III.

Lopinavir/ritonavir for treatment of non-hospitalized patients with COVID-19: a randomized clinical trial.

OBJECTIVES: Effective and widely available therapies are still needed for outpatients with COVID-19. We aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) for early treatment of non-hospitalized individuals diagnosed with COVID-19. METHODS: This randomized, placebo (Plb)-controlled, double-blind, multi-site decentralized clinical trial enrolled non-hospitalized adults with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and six or fewer days of acute respiratory infection symptoms who were randomized to either twice-daily oral LPV/r (400 mg/100 mg) or Plb for 14 days. Daily surveys on study days 1 through 16 and again on study day 28 evaluated symptoms, daily activities, and hospitalization status. The primary outcome was longitudinal change in an ordinal scale based on a combination of symptoms, activity, and hospitalization status through day 15 and was analyzed by use of a Bayesian longitudinal proportional odds logistic regression model for estimating the probability of a superior recovery for LPV/r over Plb (odds ratio >1). RESULTS: Between June 2020 and December 2021, 448 participants were randomized to receive either LPV/r (n = 216) or Plb (n = 221). The mean symptom duration before randomization was 4.3 days (SD 1.3). There were no differences between treatment groups through the first 15 days for the ordinal primary outcome (odds ratio 0.96; 95% credible interval: 0.66 to 1.41). There were 3.2% (n = 7) of LPV/r and 2.7% (n = 6) of Plb participants hospitalized by day 28. Serious adverse events did not differ between groups. CONCLUSION: LPV/r did not significantly improve symptom resolution or reduce hospitalization in non-hospitalized participants with COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04372628.

A practical guide to random-effects Bayesian meta-analyses with application to the psychological trauma and suicide literature.

OBJECTIVE: Bayesian meta-analyses offer several advantages over traditional approaches, including improved accuracy when using a small number of studies and enhanced estimation of heterogeneity. However, psychological trauma research has yet to see widespread adoption of these statistical methods, potentially due to researchers' unfamiliarity with the processes involved. The purpose of this article is to provide a practical tutorial for conducting random-effects Bayesian meta-analyses. METHOD: Explanations and recommendations are provided for completing the primary steps of a Bayesian meta-analysis, ranging from model specification to interpretation of results. Furthermore, an illustrative example is used to demonstrate the application of each step. In the example, results are synthesized from six studies included in a previously published systematic review (Holliday et al., 2020), with a combined sample size of 21,244,109, examining the association between posttraumatic stress disorder and risk of suicide in veterans and military personnel. RESULTS: The posterior distributions for each model estimate, such as the pooled effect size and the heterogeneity parameter, are discussed and interpreted with regard to the probability of increased suicide risk. CONCLUSIONS: Our hope is that this tutorial, along with the provided data and code, facilitate the use of Bayesian meta-analyses in the study of psychological trauma. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Lidocaine Intraoperative Infusion Pharmacokinetics during Partial Hepatectomy for Living Liver Donation.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative pain associated with open partial hepatectomy can be intense and persistent. The multimodal approach used to lessen this problem includes an intraoperative intravenous infusion of lidocaine hydrochloride. Decreased hepatic metabolism after resection raises concerns about safe lidocaine dosing in this patient population. The hypothesis was that the elimination clearance of lidocaine and its metabolites, monoethylglycinexylidide and glycinexylidide, is reduced after a partial hepatectomy, as reflected by observed plasma concentrations that are higher and have a longer half-life than expected based on pharmacokinetic modeling (estimated for normal liver function). Secondarily, this study postulated that plasma concentrations of lidocaine, monoethylglycinexylidide, and glycinexylidide do not reach toxic concentrations with institutional protocol up to 24 h after surgery. METHODS: Blood samples were collected from 15 patients undergoing a partial hepatectomy for living liver donation, at the following specific time points: before and immediately after induction of anesthesia, during hepatectomy, 30 min after hepatectomy completion, at case end, and 24 h after the end of surgery. Plasma concentrations of lidocaine and metabolites were measured by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. The population lidocaine pharmacokinetics were estimated, and total body weight and the fraction of remaining liver mass as potential model covariates were evaluated. The detection of any lidocaine, monoethylglycinexylidide, or glycinexylidide toxic plasma concentrations at any time point during and after hepatectomy were also evaluated. RESULTS: The typical value for lidocaine elimination clearance was 0.55 ± 0.12 l/min (± standard error of the estimate) which, on average, was reduced to about one third of the baseline clearance, 0.17 ± 0.02 l/min, once the donor graft was surgically isolated, and remained so for 24 h according to the current data and model. The fraction of remaining liver was a significant covariate for the posthepatectomy lidocaine clearance' such that if 50% of the liver is removed the clearance is reduced by approximately 60%. Plasma concentrations of lidocaine and its metabolites remained below their theoretical combined toxic threshold concentrations throughout the surgical and postoperative course in all patients, with one exception obtained near induction of anesthesia. Plasma lidocaine concentrations decreased at case end and postoperatively, while metabolite concentrations continued to rise at the end of surgery with reduction postoperatively. Pharmacokinetic modeling revealed that the only significant covariate in the model was the fraction of liver remaining after isolation of the donor graft. CONCLUSIONS: Intravenous lidocaine infusions are an acceptable option for multimodal pain management in patients undergoing a hepatectomy for living donation if the lidocaine infusion is stopped when the liver resection is complete. Clearance of lidocaine is decreased proportionally to the remaining liver mass, which should guide lidocaine infusion administration or dosing adjustments for patients undergoing liver resection surgery.

The unique association of posttraumatic stress disorder with hypertension among veterans: A replication of Kibler et al. (2009) using Bayesian estimation and data from the United States-Veteran Microbiome Project.

OBJECTIVE: Kibler et al. (2009) reported that hypertension was related to PTSD independent of depression. These two conditions have significant diagnostic overlap. The present study sought to conceptually replicate this work with a veteran sample, using Bayesian estimation to directly update past results, as well as examine symptom severity scores in relation to hypertension. METHOD: This was a secondary analysis of data obtained from the United States-Veteran Microbiome Project. Lifetime diagnoses of PTSD and major depressive disorder (MDD) were obtained from a structured clinical interview and hypertension diagnoses were extracted from electronic medical records. PTSD and depressive symptom severity were obtained from self-report measures. Logistic regressions with Bayesian estimation were used to estimate the associations between hypertension and (a) psychiatric diagnostic history and (b) symptom severity scores. RESULTS: Compared with veterans without lifetime diagnoses of either disorder, the PTSD-only group was estimated to have a 29% increase in hypertension risk, and the PTSD + MDD group was estimated to have a 66% increase in hypertension risk. Additionally, higher levels of PTSD symptom severity were associated with a higher risk of hypertension. CONCLUSION: PTSD diagnosis and symptom severity are uniquely associated with hypertension, independent of MDD or depressive symptom severity. These results support previous findings that PTSD might be a modifiable risk factor for the prevention and treatment of hypertension. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Diagnostic thresholds and optimal collection protocol of salivary pepsin for gastroesophageal reflux disease.

Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is primarily diagnosed based on symptoms and response to a proton-pump inhibitor (PPI) trial. Gold standard testing requires an invasive endoscopic procedure, often with ambulatory pH monitoring. Salivary pepsin is a potential noninvasive modality for GERD diagnosis. This study aimed to assess diagnostic performance of salivary pepsin thresholds for GERD and determine optimal collection protocol of saliva in an external validation cohort. Over 10 months, adults with symptoms of GERD undergoing esophagogastroduodenoscopy with wireless pH-monitoring off PPI were enrolled. Saliva was self-collected by participants over 4 days across three different time points: fasting ante meridiem (AM), post-prandial, and bedtime (PM). Pepsin levels were calculated via Peptest. Pepsin variability and agreement were determined using linear mixed effects models and intraclass correlation. Validation of diagnostic threshold and performance characteristics were evaluated by receiver-operator curve analysis. Twenty participants enrolled in the study; 50% with physiologic acid exposure (acid exposure time < 4% no GERD) and 50% with elevated acid exposure (GERD). Mean pepsin concentrations were significantly lower in the AM (22.6 ± 25.2 ng/mL) compared to post-prandial (44.5 ± 36.7 ng/mL) and PM (55.4 ± 47.0 ng/mL). Agreement between pepsin concentrations across 3 days was substantial for AM samples (kappa 0.61), with lower agreement for post-prandial and PM samples. A single AM pepsin concentration of 25 ng/mL was 67% accurate for GERD with 56% sensitivity and 78% specificity. This validation study highlights fair accuracy and performance characteristics of a single fasting AM salivary pepsin concentration for the diagnosis of GERD.

Optimal predictive probability designs for randomized biomarker-guided oncology trials.

Introduction: Efforts to develop biomarker-targeted anti-cancer therapies have progressed rapidly in recent years. With efforts to expedite regulatory reviews of promising therapies, several targeted cancer therapies have been granted accelerated approval on the basis of evidence acquired in single-arm phase II clinical trials. And yet, in the absence of randomization, patient prognosis for progression-free survival and overall survival may not have been studied under standard of care chemotherapies for emerging biomarker subpopulations prior to the submission of an accelerated approval application. Historical control rates used to design and evaluate emerging targeted therapies often arise as population averages, lacking specificity to the targeted genetic or immunophenotypic profile. Thus, historical trial results are inherently limited for inferring the potential "comparative efficacy" of novel targeted therapies. Consequently, randomization may be unavoidable in this setting. Innovations in design methodology are needed, however, to enable efficient implementation of randomized trials for agents that target biomarker subpopulations. Methods: This article proposes three randomized designs for early phase biomarker-guided oncology clinical trials. Each design utilizes the optimal efficiency predictive probability method to monitor multiple biomarker subpopulations for futility. Only designs with type I error between 0.05 and 0.1 and power of at least 0.8 were considered when selecting an optimal efficiency design from among the candidate designs formed by different combinations of posterior and predictive threshold. A simulation study motivated by the results reported in a recent clinical trial studying atezolizumab treatment in patients with locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma is used to evaluate the operating characteristics of the various designs. Results: Out of a maximum of 300 total patients, we find that the enrichment design has an average total sample size under the null of 101.0 and a total average sample size under the alternative of 218.0, as compared to 144.8 and 213.8 under the null and alternative, respectively, for the stratified control arm design. The pooled control arm design enrolled a total of 113.2 patients under the null and 159.6 under the alternative, out of a maximum of 200. These average sample sizes that are 23-48% smaller under the alternative and 47-64% smaller under the null, as compared to the realized sample size of 310 patients in the phase II study of atezolizumab. Discussion: Our findings suggest that potentially smaller phase II trials to those used in practice can be designed using randomization and futility stopping to efficiently obtain more information about both the treatment and control groups prior to phase III study.

Assessing the performance of different outcomes for tumor growth studies with animal models.

The consistency of reporting results for patient-derived xenograft (PDX) studies is an area of concern. The PDX method commonly starts by implanting a derivative of a human tumor into a mouse, then comparing the tumor growth under different treatment conditions. Currently, a wide array of statistical methods (e.g., t-test, regression, chi-squared test) are used to analyze these data, which ultimately depend on the outcome chosen (e.g., tumor volume, relative growth, categorical growth). In this simulation study, we provide empirical evidence for the outcome selection process by comparing the performance of both commonly used outcomes and novel variations of common outcomes used in PDX studies. Data were simulated to mimic tumor growth under multiple scenarios, then each outcome of interest was evaluated for 10 000 iterations. Comparisons between different outcomes were made with respect to average bias, variance, type-1 error, and power. A total of 18 continuous, categorical, and time-to-event outcomes were evaluated, with ultimately 2 outcomes outperforming the others: final tumor volume and change in tumor volume from baseline. Notably, the novel variations of the tumor growth inhibition index (TGII)-a commonly used outcome in PDX studies-was found to perform poorly in several scenarios with inflated type-1 error rates and a relatively large bias. Finally, all outcomes of interest were applied to a real-world dataset.