Building up a genomic surveillance platform for SARS-CoV-2 in the middle of a pandemic: a true North-South collaboration.

Next-generation sequencing technology has revolutionised pathogen surveillance over the last two decades. However, the benefits are not equitably distributed, with developing countries lagging far behind in acquiring the required technology and analytical capacity. Recent declines in the cost associated with sequencing-equipment and running consumables have created an opportunity for broader adoption. During the COVID-19 pandemic, rapid diagnostics development and DNA sequencing revolutionised the ability to diagnose and sequence SARS-CoV-2 rapidly. Socioeconomic inequalities substantially impact the ability to sequence SARS-CoV-2 strains and undermine a developing country's pandemic preparedness. Low- and middle-income countries face additional challenges in establishing, maintaining and expanding genomic surveillance. We present our experience of establishing a genomic surveillance system at the Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan. Despite being at a leading health sciences research institute in the country, we encountered significant challenges. These were related to collecting standardised contextual data for SARS-CoV-2 samples, procuring sequencing reagents and consumables, and challenges with library preparation, sequencing and submission of high-quality SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Several technical roadblocks ensued during the implementation of the genomic surveillance framework, which were resolved in collaboration with our partners. High-quality genome sequences were then deposited on open-access platforms per the best practices. Subsequently, these efforts culminated in deploying Pakistan's first SARS-CoV-2 phyllo surveillance map as a Nextstrain build. Our experience offers lessons for the successful development of Genomic Surveillance Infrastructure in resource-limited settings struck by a pandemic.

The Epidemiology of Sapovirus in the Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infection and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development Study: Evidence of Protection Following Natural Infection.

BACKGROUND: Sapovirus is one of the principal agents of acute viral enteritis in children. Because it has not been routinely included in diagnostic evaluations, the epidemiology and natural history remain poorly described. METHODS: A birth cohort of 1715 children from 8 countries contributed surveillance samples (n = 35 620) and diarrheal specimens (n = 6868) from 0 to 24 months of age. Sapovirus was detected by quantitative polymerase chain reaction concurrently to other enteropathogens using multiarray cards. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors, and longitudinal models were employed to estimate incidence rates and evaluate evidence of protective immunity. RESULTS: Sapovirus was detected in 24.7% (n = 1665) of diarrheal stools and 12.8% (n = 4429) of monthly surveillance samples. More than 90% of children were infected and 60% experienced sapovirus diarrhea in the first 2 years of life. Breastfeeding and higher socioeconomic status were associated with reduced incidence of infection and illness. Specimens with sapovirus detected had an increased odds of coinfection with rotavirus (odds ratio [OR], 1.6 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.3-2.0]), astrovirus (OR, 1.5 [95% CI, 1.3-1.7]), adenovirus (OR, 1.3 [95% CI, 1.1-1.5]), and Shigella (OR, 1.4 [95% CI, 1.3-1.6]). Prior infection with sapovirus conferred a risk reduction of 22% for subsequent infection (hazard ratio [HR], 0.78 [95% CI, .74-.85]) and 24% for subsequent diarrhea (95% CI, 11.0%-35.0%; HR, 0.76). CONCLUSIONS: Sapovirus is a common cause of early childhood diarrhea. Further research on coinfections is warranted. Evidence of acquired immunity was observed even in the absence of genotype-specific analysis for this pathogen of known genetic diversity.

Impact of enteropathogens on faltering growth in a resource-limited setting.

Introduction: Environmental enteropathy is an important contributor to childhood malnutrition in the developing world. Chronic exposure to fecal pathogens leads to alteration in intestinal structure and function, resulting in impaired gut immune function, malabsorption, and growth faltering leading to environmental enteropathy. Methods: A community-based intervention study was carried out on children till 24 months of age in Matiari district, Pakistan. Blood and fecal specimens were collected from the enrolled children aged 3-6 and 9 months. A real-time PCR-based TaqMan array card (TAC) was used to detect enteropathogens. Results: Giardia, Campylobacter spp., enteroaggregative Escherichia coli (EAEC), Enteropathogenic Escherichia coli (EPEC), Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC), and Cryptosporidium spp. were the most prevailing enteropathogens in terms of overall positivity at both time points. Detection of protozoa at enrollment and 9 months was negatively correlated with rate of change in height-for-age Z (ΔHAZ) scores during the first and second years of life. A positive association was found between Giardia, fecal lipocalin (LCN), and alpha 1-Acid Glycoprotein (AGP), while Campylobacter spp. showed positive associations with neopterin (NEO) and myeloperoxidase (MPO). Conclusion: Protozoal colonization is associated with a decline in linear growth velocity during the first 2 years of life in children living in Environmental enteric dysfunction (EED) endemic settings. Mechanistic studies exploring the role of cumulative microbial colonization, their adaptations to undernutrition, and their influence on gut homeostasis are required to understand symptomatic enteropathogen-induced growth faltering.

Gut integrity and duodenal enteropathogen burden in undernourished children with environmental enteric dysfunction.

Environmental enteric dysfunction (EED) is a subclinical condition of intestinal inflammation, barrier dysfunction and malabsorption associated with growth faltering in children living in poverty. This study explores association of altered duodenal permeability (lactulose, rhamnose and their ratio) with higher burden of enteropathogen in the duodenal aspirate, altered histopathological findings and higher morbidity (diarrhea) that is collectively associated with linear growth faltering in children living in EED endemic setting. In a longitudinal birth cohort, 51 controls (WHZ > 0, HAZ > -1.0) and 63 cases (WHZ< -2.0, refractory to nutritional intervention) were recruited. Anthropometry and morbidity were recorded on monthly bases up to 24 months of age. Dual sugar assay of urine collected after oral administration of lactulose and rhamnose was assessed in 96 children from both the groups. Duodenal histopathology (n = 63) and enteropathogen analysis of aspirate via Taqman array card (n = 60) was assessed in only cases. Giardia was the most frequent pathogen and was associated with raised L:R ratio (p = 0.068). Gastric microscopy was more sensitive than duodenal aspirate in H. pylori detection. Microscopically confirmed H. pylori negatively correlated with HAZ at 24 months (r = -0.313, p = 0.013). Regarding histopathological parameters, goblet cell reduction significantly correlated with decline in dual sugar excretion (p< 0.05). Between cases and controls, there were no significant differences in the median (25th, 75th percentile) of urinary concentrations (µg/ml) of lactulose [27.0 (11.50, 59.50) for cases vs. 38.0 (12.0, 61.0) for controls], rhamnose [66.0 (28.0, 178.0) vs. 86.5 (29.5, 190.5)] and L:R ratio [0.47 (0.24, 0.90) vs. 0.51 (0.31, 0.71)] respectively. In multivariable regression model, 31% of variability in HAZ at 24 months of age among cases and controls was explained by final model including dual sugars. In conclusion, enteropathogen burden is associated with altered histopathological features and intestinal permeability. In cases and controls living in settings of endemic enteropathy, intestinal permeability test may predict linear growth. However, for adoption as a screening tool for EED, further validation is required due to its complex intestinal pathophysiology.

The Clinical Presentation of Culture-positive and Culture-negative, Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (qPCR)-Attributable Shigellosis in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study and Derivation of a Shigella Severity Score: Implications for Pediatric Shigella Vaccine Trials.

BACKGROUND: Shigella is a leading cause of childhood diarrhea and target for vaccine development. Microbiologic and clinical case definitions are needed for pediatric field vaccine efficacy trials. METHODS: We compared characteristics of moderate to severe diarrhea (MSD) cases in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) between children with culture positive Shigella to those with culture-negative, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR)-attributable Shigella (defined by an ipaH gene cycle threshold <27.9). Among Shigella MSD cases, we determined risk factors for death and derived a clinical severity score. RESULTS: Compared to culture-positive Shigella MSD cases (n = 745), culture-negative/qPCR-attributable Shigella cases (n = 852) were more likely to be under 12 months, stunted, have a longer duration of diarrhea, and less likely to have high stool frequency or a fever. There was no difference in dehydration, hospitalization, or severe classification from a modified Vesikari score. Twenty-two (1.8%) Shigella MSD cases died within the 14-days after presentation to health facilities, and 59.1% of these deaths were in culture-negative cases. Age <12 months, diarrhea duration prior to presentation, vomiting, stunting, wasting, and hospitalization were associated with mortality. A model-derived score assigned points for dehydration, hospital admission, and longer diarrhea duration but was not significantly better at predicting 14-day mortality than a modified Vesikari score. CONCLUSIONS: A composite severity score consistent with severe disease or dysentery may be a pragmatic clinical endpoint for severe shigellosis in vaccine trials. Reliance on culture for microbiologic confirmation may miss a substantial number of Shigella cases but is currently required to measure serotype specific immunity.

Epidemiology of Shigella infections and diarrhea in the first two years of life using culture-independent diagnostics in 8 low-resource settings.

Culture-independent diagnostics have revealed a larger burden of Shigella among children in low-resource settings than previously recognized. We further characterized the epidemiology of Shigella in the first two years of life in a multisite birth cohort. We tested 41,405 diarrheal and monthly non-diarrheal stools from 1,715 children for Shigella by quantitative PCR. To assess risk factors, clinical factors related to age and culture positivity, and associations with inflammatory biomarkers, we used log-binomial regression with generalized estimating equations. The prevalence of Shigella varied from 4.9%-17.8% in non-diarrheal stools across sites, and the incidence of Shigella-attributable diarrhea was 31.8 cases (95% CI: 29.6, 34.2) per 100 child-years. The sensitivity of culture compared to qPCR was 6.6% and increased to 27.8% in Shigella-attributable dysentery. Shigella diarrhea episodes were more likely to be severe and less likely to be culture positive in younger children. Older age (RR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.70, 1.81 per 6-month increase in age), unimproved sanitation (RR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.29), low maternal education (<10 years, RR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.26), initiating complementary foods before 3 months (RR: 1.10, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.20), and malnutrition (RR: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.88, 0.95 per unit increase in weight-for-age z-score) were risk factors for Shigella. There was a linear dose-response between Shigella quantity and myeloperoxidase concentrations. The burden of Shigella varied widely across sites, but uniformly increased through the second year of life and was associated with intestinal inflammation. Culture missed most clinically relevant cases of severe diarrhea and dysentery.

Use of quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to investigate the effect of enteropathogen infections on linear growth in children in low-resource settings: longitudinal analysis of results from the MAL-ED cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Enteropathogen infections in early childhood not only cause diarrhoea but contribute to poor growth. We used molecular diagnostics to assess whether particular enteropathogens were associated with linear growth across seven low-resource settings. METHODS: We used quantitative PCR to detect 29 enteropathogens in diarrhoeal and non-diarrhoeal stools collected from children in the first 2 years of life obtained during the Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) multisite cohort study. Length was measured monthly. We estimated associations between aetiology-specific diarrhoea and subclinical enteropathogen infection and quantity and attained length in 3 month intervals, at age 2 and 5 years, and used a longitudinal model to account for temporality and time-dependent confounding. FINDINGS: Among 1469 children who completed 2 year follow-up, 35 622 stool samples were tested and yielded valid results. Diarrhoeal episodes attributed to bacteria and parasites, but not viruses, were associated with small decreases in length after 3 months and at age 2 years. Substantial decrements in length at 2 years were associated with subclinical, non-diarrhoeal, infection with Shigella (length-for-age Z score [LAZ] reduction -0·14, 95% CI -0·27 to -0·01), enteroaggregative Escherichia coli (-0·21, -0·37 to -0·05), Campylobacter (-0·17, -0·32 to -0·01), and Giardia (-0·17, -0·30 to -0·05). Norovirus, Cryptosporidium, typical enteropathogenic E coli, and Enterocytozoon bieneusi were also associated with small decrements in LAZ. Shigella and E bieneusi were associated with the largest decreases in LAZ per log increase in quantity per g of stool (-0·13 LAZ, 95% CI -0·22 to -0·03 for Shigella; -0·14, -0·26 to -0·02 for E bieneusi). Based on these models, interventions that successfully decrease exposure to Shigella, enteroaggregative E coli, Campylobacter, and Giardia could increase mean length of children by 0·12-0·37 LAZ (0·4-1·2 cm) at the MAL-ED sites. INTERPRETATION: Subclinical infection and quantity of pathogens, particularly Shigella, enteroaggregative E coli, Campylobacter, and Giardia, had a substantial negative association with linear growth, which was sustained during the first 2 years of life, and in some cases, to 5 years. Successfully reducing exposure to certain pathogens might reduce global stunting. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Use of quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to assess the aetiology, burden, and clinical characteristics of diarrhoea in children in low-resource settings: a reanalysis of the MAL-ED cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Optimum management of childhood diarrhoea in low-resource settings has been hampered by insufficient data on aetiology, burden, and associated clinical characteristics. We used quantitative diagnostic methods to reassess and refine estimates of diarrhoea aetiology from the Etiology, Risk Factors, and Interactions of Enteric Infections and Malnutrition and the Consequences for Child Health and Development (MAL-ED) cohort study. METHODS: We re-analysed stool specimens from the multisite MAL-ED cohort study of children aged 0-2 years done at eight locations (Dhaka, Bangladesh; Vellore, India; Bhaktapur, Nepal; Naushero Feroze, Pakistan; Venda, South Africa; Haydom, Tanzania; Fortaleza, Brazil; and Loreto, Peru), which included active surveillance for diarrhoea and routine non-diarrhoeal stool collection. We used quantitative PCR to test for 29 enteropathogens, calculated population-level pathogen-specific attributable burdens, derived stringent quantitative cutoffs to identify aetiology for individual episodes, and created aetiology prediction scores using clinical characteristics. FINDINGS: We analysed 6625 diarrhoeal and 30 968 non-diarrhoeal surveillance stools from 1715 children. Overall, 64·9% of diarrhoea episodes (95% CI 62·6-71·2) could be attributed to an aetiology by quantitative PCR compared with 32·8% (30·8-38·7) using the original study microbiology. Viral diarrhoea (36·4% of overall incidence, 95% CI 33·6-39·5) was more common than bacterial (25·0%, 23·4-28·4) and parasitic diarrhoea (3·5%, 3·0-5·2). Ten pathogens accounted for 95·7% of attributable diarrhoea: Shigella (26·1 attributable episodes per 100 child-years, 95% CI 23·8-29·9), sapovirus (22·8, 18·9-27·5), rotavirus (20·7, 18·8-23·0), adenovirus 40/41 (19·0, 16·8-23·0), enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (18·8, 16·5-23·8), norovirus (15·4, 13·5-20·1), astrovirus (15·0, 12·0-19·5), Campylobacter jejuni or C coli (12·1, 8·5-17·2), Cryptosporidium (5·8, 4·3-8·3), and typical enteropathogenic E coli (5·4, 2·8-9·3). 86·2% of the attributable incidence for Shigella was non-dysenteric. A prediction score for shigellosis was more accurate (sensitivity 50·4% [95% CI 46·7-54·1], specificity 84·0% [83·0-84·9]) than current guidelines, which recommend treatment only of bloody diarrhoea to cover Shigella (sensitivity 14·5% [95% CI 12·1-17·3], specificity 96·5% [96·0-97·0]). INTERPRETATION: Quantitative molecular diagnostics improved estimates of pathogen-specific burdens of childhood diarrhoea in the community setting. Viral causes predominated, including a substantial burden of sapovirus; however, Shigella had the highest overall burden with a high incidence in the second year of life. These data could improve the management of diarrhoea in these low-resource settings. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Astrovirus Infection and Diarrhea in 8 Countries.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Astroviruses are important drivers of viral gastroenteritis but remain understudied in community settings and low- and middle-income countries. We present data from 8 countries with high prevalence of diarrhea and undernutrition to describe astrovirus epidemiology and assess evidence for protective immunity among children 0 to 2 years of age. METHODS: We used 25 898 surveillance stools and 7077 diarrheal stools contributed by 2082 children for enteropathogen testing, and longitudinal statistical analysis to describe incidence, risk factors, and protective immunity. RESULTS: Thirty-five percent of children experienced astrovirus infections. Prevalence in diarrheal stools was 5.6%, and severity exceeded all enteropathogens except rotavirus. Incidence of infection and diarrhea were 2.12 and 0.88 episodes per 100 child-months, respectively. Children with astrovirus infection had 2.30 times the odds of experiencing diarrhea after adjustment for covariates (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.01-2.62; P < .001). Undernutrition was a risk factor: odds of infection and diarrhea were reduced by 10% and 13%, respectively, per increase in length-for-age z score (infection: odds ratio, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.85-0.96]; P < .001; diarrhea: odds ratio, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.79-0.96]; P = .006). Some evidence of protective immunity to infection was detected (hazard ratio, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.71-1.00], P = .052), although this was heterogeneous between sites and significant in India and Peru. CONCLUSIONS: Astrovirus is an overlooked cause of diarrhea among vulnerable children worldwide. With the evidence presented here, we highlight the need for future research as well as the potential for astrovirus to be a target for vaccine development.

Use of quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to identify causes of diarrhoea in children: a reanalysis of the GEMS case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoea is the second leading cause of mortality in children worldwide, but establishing the cause can be complicated by diverse diagnostic approaches and varying test characteristics. We used quantitative molecular diagnostic methods to reassess causes of diarrhoea in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS). METHODS: GEMS was a study of moderate to severe diarrhoea in children younger than 5 years in Africa and Asia. We used quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) to test for 32 enteropathogens in stool samples from cases and matched asymptomatic controls from GEMS, and compared pathogen-specific attributable incidences with those found with the original GEMS microbiological methods, including culture, EIA, and reverse-transcriptase PCR. We calculated revised pathogen-specific burdens of disease and assessed causes in individual children. FINDINGS: We analysed 5304 sample pairs. For most pathogens, incidence was greater with qPCR than with the original methods, particularly for adenovirus 40/41 (around five times), Shigella spp or enteroinvasive Escherichia coli (EIEC) and Campylobactor jejuni o C coli (around two times), and heat-stable enterotoxin-producing E coli ([ST-ETEC] around 1·5 times). The six most attributable pathogens became, in descending order, Shigella spp, rotavirus, adenovirus 40/41, ST-ETEC, Cryptosporidium spp, and Campylobacter spp. Pathogen-attributable diarrhoeal burden was 89·3% (95% CI 83·2-96·0) at the population level, compared with 51·5% (48·0-55·0) in the original GEMS analysis. The top six pathogens accounted for 77·8% (74·6-80·9) of all attributable diarrhoea. With use of model-derived quantitative cutoffs to assess individual diarrhoeal cases, 2254 (42·5%) of 5304 cases had one diarrhoea-associated pathogen detected and 2063 (38·9%) had two or more, with Shigella spp and rotavirus being the pathogens most strongly associated with diarrhoea in children with mixed infections. INTERPRETATION: A quantitative molecular diagnostic approach improved population-level and case-level characterisation of the causes of diarrhoea and indicated a high burden of disease associated with six pathogens, for which targeted treatment should be prioritised. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Norovirus Infection and Acquired Immunity in 8 Countries: Results From the MAL-ED Study.

BACKGROUND: Norovirus is an important cause of childhood diarrhea. We present data from a longitudinal, multicountry study describing norovirus epidemiology during the first 2 years of life. METHODS: A birth cohort of 1457 children across 8 countries contributed 7077 diarrheal stools for norovirus testing. A subset of 199 children contributed additional asymptomatic samples (2307) and diarrheal stools (770), which were used to derive incidence rates and evaluate evidence for acquired immunity. RESULTS: Across sites, 89% of children experienced at least 1 norovirus infection before 24 months, and 22.7% of all diarrheal stools were norovirus positive. Severity of norovirus-positive diarrhea was comparable to other enteropathogens, with the exception of rotavirus. Incidence of genogroup II (GII) infection was higher than genogroup I and peaked at 6-11 months across sites. Undernutrition was a risk factor for symptomatic norovirus infection, with an increase in 1 standard deviation of length-for-age z score associated with a 17% reduction (odds ratio, 0.83 [95% confidence interval, .72-.97]; P = .011) in the odds of experiencing diarrhea when norovirus was present, after accounting for genogroup, rotavirus vaccine, and age. Evidence of acquired immunity was observed among GII infections only: Children with prior GII infection were found to have a 27% reduction in the hazard of subsequent infection (hazard ratio, 0.727; P = .010). CONCLUSIONS: The high prevalence of norovirus across 8 sites in highly variable epidemiologic settings and demonstration of protective immunity for GII infections provide support for investment in vaccine development.

Detection of Typhoidal and Paratyphoidal Salmonella in Blood by Real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction.

BACKGROUND: The gold standard for diagnosis of enteric fever caused by Salmonella Typhi or Salmonella Paratyphi A or B is bone marrow culture. However, because bone marrow aspiration is highly invasive, many hospitals and large health centers perform blood culture instead. As blood culture has several limitations, there is a need for novel typhoid diagnostics with improved sensitivity and more rapid time to detection. METHODS: We developed a clyA-based real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) method to detect Salmonella Typhi and Salmonella Paratyphi A simultaneously in blood. The sensitivity and specificity of this probeset was first evaluated in vitro in the laboratory and then in a typhoid-endemic population, in Karachi, Pakistan, and in healthy US volunteers. RESULTS: We optimized a DNA extraction and real-time PCR-based method that could reliably detect 1 colony-forming unit/mL of Salmonella Typhi. The probe set was able to detect clinical Salmonella Typhi and Salmonella Paratyphi A strains and also diarrheagenic Escherichia coli, but not invasive E. coli or other invasive bacteria. In the field, the clyA qPCR diagnostic was 40% as sensitive as blood culture. However, when qPCR-positive specimens were considered to be true positives, blood culture only exhibited 28.57% sensitivity. Specificity was ≥90% for all comparisons and in the healthy US volunteers. qPCR was significantly faster than blood culture in terms of detection of typhoid and paratyphoid. CONCLUSIONS: Based on lessons learned, we recommend that future field trials of this and other novel diagnostics that detect typhoidal and nontyphoidal Salmonella employ multiple methodologies to define a "positive" sample.

Development and assessment of molecular diagnostic tests for 15 enteropathogens causing childhood diarrhoea: a multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: Childhood diarrhoea can be caused by many pathogens that are difficult to assay in the laboratory. Molecular diagnostic techniques provide a uniform method to detect and quantify candidate enteropathogens. We aimed to develop and assess molecular tests for identification of enteropathogens and their association with disease. METHODS: We developed and assessed molecular diagnostic tests for 15 enteropathogens across three platforms-PCR-Luminex, multiplex real-time PCR, and TaqMan array card-at five laboratories worldwide. We judged the analytical and clinical performance of these molecular techniques against comparator methods (bacterial culture, ELISA, and PCR) using 867 diarrhoeal and 619 non-diarrhoeal stool specimens. We also measured molecular quantities of pathogens to predict the association with diarrhoea, by univariate logistic regression analysis. FINDINGS: The molecular tests showed very good analytical and clinical performance at all five laboratories. Comparator methods had limited sensitivity compared with the molecular techniques (20-85% depending on the target) but good specificity (median 97·3%, IQR 96·5-98·9; mean 95·2%, SD 9·1). Positive samples by comparator methods usually had higher molecular quantities of pathogens than did negative samples, across almost all platforms and for most pathogens (p<0·05). The odds ratio for diarrhoea at a given quantity (measured by quantification cycle, Cq) showed that for most pathogens associated with diarrhoea-including Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli, Cryptosporidium spp, enteropathogenic Escherichia coli, heat-stable enterotoxigenic E coli, rotavirus, Shigella spp and enteroinvasive E coli, and Vibrio cholerae-the strength of association with diarrhoea increased at higher pathogen loads. For example, Shigella spp at a Cq range of 15-20 had an odds ratio of 8·0 (p<0·0001), but at a Cq range of 25-30 the odds ratio fell to 1·7 (p=0·043). INTERPRETATION: Molecular diagnostic tests can be implemented successfully and with fidelity across laboratories around the world. In the case of diarrhoea, these techniques can detect pathogens with high sensitivity and ascribe diarrhoeal associations based on quantification, including in mixed infections, providing rich and unprecedented measurements of infectious causes. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Next Generation Molecular Diagnostics Project.

Combined heat and power systems: economic and policy barriers to growth.

BACKGROUND: Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems can provide a range of benefits to users with regards to efficiency, reliability, costs and environmental impact. Furthermore, increasing the amount of electricity generated by CHP systems in the United States has been identified as having significant potential for impressive economic and environmental outcomes on a national scale. Given the benefits from increasing the adoption of CHP technologies, there is value in improving our understanding of how desired increases in CHP adoption can be best achieved. These obstacles are currently understood to stem from regulatory as well as economic and technological barriers. In our research, we answer the following questions: Given the current policy and economic environment facing the CHP industry, what changes need to take place in this space in order for CHP systems to be competitive in the energy market? METHODS: We focus our analysis primarily on Combined Heat and Power Systems that use natural gas turbines. Our analysis takes a two-pronged approach. We first conduct a statistical analysis of the impact of state policies on increases in electricity generated from CHP system. Second, we conduct a Cost-Benefit analysis to determine in which circumstances funding incentives are necessary to make CHP technologies cost-competitive. RESULTS: Our policy analysis shows that regulatory improvements do not explain the growth in adoption of CHP technologies but hold the potential to encourage increases in electricity generated from CHP system in small-scale applications. Our Cost-Benefit analysis shows that CHP systems are only cost competitive in large-scale applications and that funding incentives would be necessary to make CHP technology cost-competitive in small-scale applications. CONCLUSION: From the synthesis of these analyses we conclude that because large-scale applications of natural gas turbines are already cost-competitive, policy initiatives aimed at a CHP market dominated primarily by large-scale (and therefore already cost-competitive) systems have not been effectively directed. Our recommendation is that for CHP technologies using natural gas turbines, policy focuses should be on increasing CHP growth in small-scale systems. This result can be best achieved through redirection of state and federal incentives, research and development, adoption of smart grid technology, and outreach and education.