Simultaneous Analysis of 272 Pesticides in Agricultural Products by the QuEChERS Method and Gas Chromatography with Tandem Mass Spectrometry.

The aim of this study is to develop a rapid and accurate method for simultaneous analysis of multi-residue pesticides and conduct pesticide monitoring in agricultural products produced by the production and distribution stage in Korea. The representative agricultural products were selected as brown rice, soybean, potato, mandarin, and green pepper and developed using gas chromatography with tandem mass (GC-MS/MS) for the analysis of 272 pesticide residues. The experimental samples were extracted by the QuEChERS-EN method and then cleaned up by using d-SPE, including MgSO4 and primary secondary amine (PSA) sorbents. The established method was validated in accordance with Codex CAC-GL/40, and the limit of quantitation (LOQ) was determined to be 0.01 mg/kg. A total of 243 pesticides satisfied the guidelines in five samples at three levels with values of 60 to 120% (recovery) and ≤45% (coefficient of variation, CV). The remaining 29 pesticides did not satisfy the guidelines, and these pesticides are expected to be used as a screening method for the routine inspection of agricultural products. As a result of analyzing 223 agricultural products in South Korea by applying the simultaneous analysis method, none of the detected levels in the samples exceeded the standard values based on maximum residue limits (MRLs). The developed method in this study will be used to inspect residual pesticides in agricultural products, and it is anticipated to contribute to the distribution of safe agricultural products to consumers.

Skin cancer-related conditions managed in general practice in Australia, 2000-2016: a nationally representative, cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVE: Skin cancer is Australia's most common and costly cancer. We examined the frequency of Australian general practice consultations for skin cancer-related conditions, by patient and general practitioner (GP) characteristics and by time period. DESIGN: Nationally representative, cross-sectional survey of general practice clinical activity. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged 15 years or older having a skin cancer-related condition managed by GPs in the Bettering the Evaluation And Care of Health study between April 2000 and March 2016. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportions and rates per 1000 encounters. RESULTS: In this period, 15 678 GPs recorded 1 370 826 patient encounters, of which skin cancer-related conditions were managed 65 411 times (rate of 47.72 per 1000 encounters, 95% CI 46.41 to 49.02). Across the whole period, 'skin conditions' managed were solar keratosis (29.87%), keratinocyte cancer (24.85%), other skin lesion (12.93%), nevi (10.98%), skin check (10.37%), benign skin neoplasm (8.76%) and melanoma (2.42%). Over time, management rates increased for keratinocyte cancers, skin checks, skin lesions, benign skin neoplasms and melanoma; but remained stable for solar keratoses and nevi. Skin cancer-related encounter rates were higher for patients aged 65-89 years, male, living in Queensland or in regional or remote areas, with lower area-based socioeconomic status, of English-speaking background, Veteran card holders and non-healthcare card holders; and for GPs who were aged 35-44 years or male. CONCLUSION: These findings show the spectrum and burden of skin cancer-related conditions managed in general practice in Australia, which can guide GP education, policy and interventions to optimise skin cancer prevention and management.

Systematic review of NTRK 1/2/3 fusion prevalence pan-cancer and across solid tumours.

NTRK gene fusions are rare somatic mutations found across cancer types with promising targeted therapies emerging. Healthcare systems face significant challenges in integrating these treatments, with uncertainty in prevalence and optimal testing methods to identify eligible patients. We performed a systematic review of NTRK fusion prevalence to inform efficient diagnostic screening and scale of therapeutic uptake. We searched Medline, Embase and Cochrane databases on 31/03/2021. Inclusion criteria were studies reporting fusion rates in solid tumours, English language, post-2010 publication and minimum sample size. Critical appraisal was performed using a custom 11-item checklist. Rates were collated by cancer type and pooled if additional synthesis criteria were met. 160 studies were included, with estimates for 15 pan-cancer and 429 specific cancer types (63 paediatric). Adult pan-cancer estimates ranged 0.03-0.70%, with higher rates found in RNA-based assays. In common cancers, rates were consistently below 0.5%. Rare morphological subtypes, colorectal microsatellite instability, and driver mutation exclusion cancers had higher rates. Only 35.6% of extracted estimates used appropriate methods and sample size to identify NTRK fusions. NTRK fusion-positive cancers are rare and widely distributed across solid tumours. Small-scale, heterogeneous data confound prevalence prediction. Further large-scale, standardised genomic data are needed to characterise NTRK fusion epidemiology.

Combined population genomic screening for three high-risk conditions in Australia: a modelling study.

Background: No previous health-economic evaluation has assessed the impact and cost-effectiveness of offering combined adult population genomic screening for mutliple high-risk conditions in a national public healthcare system. Methods: This modeling study assessed the impact of offering combined genomic screening for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer, Lynch syndrome and familial hypercholesterolaemia to all young adults in Australia, compared with the current practice of clinical criteria-based testing for each condition separately. The intervention of genomic screening, assumed as an up-front single cost in the first annual model cycle, would detect pathogenic variants in seven high-risk genes. The simulated population was 18-40 year-olds (8,324,242 individuals), modelling per-sample test costs ranging AU$100-$1200 (base-case AU$200) from the year 2023 onwards with testing uptake of 50%. Interventions for identified high-risk variant carriers follow current Australian guidelines, modelling imperfect uptake and adherence. Outcome measures were morbidity and mortality due to cancer (breast, ovarian, colorectal and endometrial) and coronary heart disease (CHD) over a lifetime horizon, from healthcare-system and societal perspectives. Outcomes included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), discounted 5% annually (with 3% discounting in scenario analysis). Findings: Over the population lifetime (to age 80 years), the model estimated that genomic screening per-100,000 individuals would lead to 747 QALYs gained by preventing 63 cancers, 31 CHD cases and 97 deaths. In the total model population, this would translate to 31,094 QALYs gained by preventing 2612 cancers, 542 non-fatal CHD events and 4047 total deaths. At AU$200 per-test, genomic screening would require an investment of AU$832 million for screening of 50% of the population. Our findings suggest that this intervention would be cost-effective from a healthcare-system perspective, yielding an ICER of AU$23,926 (∼£12,050/€14,110/US$15,345) per QALY gained over the status quo. In scenario analysis with 3% discounting, an ICER of AU$4758/QALY was obtained. Sensitivity analysis for the base case indicated that combined genomic screening would be cost-effective under 70% of simulations, cost-saving under 25% and not cost-effective under 5%. Threshold analysis showed that genomic screening would be cost-effective under the AU$50,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold at per-test costs up to AU$325 (∼£164/€192/US$208). Interpretation: Our findings suggest that offering combined genomic screening for high-risk conditions to young adults would be cost-effective in the Australian public healthcare system, at currently realistic testing costs. Other matters, including psychosocial impacts, ethical and societal issues, and implementation challenges, also need consideration. Funding: Australian Government, Department of Health, Medical Research Future Fund, Genomics Health Futures Mission (APP2009024). National Heart Foundation Future Leader Fellowship (102604).

Prognostic value of preoperative protein-induced vitamin K absence or antagonist II after liver resection for hepatitis B-related hepatocellular carcinoma: a nationwide multicenter study.

Purpose: Although protein-induced vitamin K absence or antagonist II (PIVKA-II) has been used as a diagnostic tool for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), its prognostic value remains unclear. Methods: This was a nationwide multicenter study using the database of the Korean Liver Cancer Association. Patients with hepatitis B-related HCC who underwent liver resection as the first treatment after initial diagnosis (2008-2014) were selected randomly. Propensity score matching (1:1) was performed for comparative analysis between those with low and high preoperative PIVKA-II. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression were used to identify prognostic factors for HCC-specific survival. Results: Among 6,770 patients, 956 patients were included in this study. After propensity score matching, the 2 groups (n = 245, each) were well balanced. The HCC-specific 5-year survival rate was 80.9% in the low PIVKA-II group and 78.7% in the high PIVKA-II group (P = 0.605). In univariable analysis, high PIVKA-II (>106.0 mAU/mL) was not a significant predictor for worse HCC-specific survival (hazard ratio [HR], 1.183; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-1.85; P = 0.461). In multivariable analysis, hyponatremia of <135 mEq/L (HR, 4.855; 95% CI, 1.67-14.12; P = 0.004), preoperative ascites (HR, 4.072; 95% CI, 1.59-10.43; P = 0.003), microvascular invasion (HR, 3.112; 95% CI, 1.69-5.74; P < 0.001), and largest tumor size of ≥5.0 cm (HR, 2.665; 95% CI, 1.65-4.31; P < 0.001), but not preoperative high PIVKA-II, were independent predictors for worse HCC-specific survival. Conclusion: Preoperative PIVKA-II is not an independent prognostic factor for HCC-specific survival after liver resection for hepatitis B-related HCC.

A scoping review and meta-analysis on the prevalence of pan-tumour biomarkers (dMMR, MSI, high TMB) in different solid tumours.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors have been approved in the USA for tumours exhibiting mismatch repair deficiency (dMMR), microsatellite instability (MSI), or high tumour mutational burden (TMB), with regulatory and reimbursement applications in multiple other countries underway. As the estimated budget impacts of future reimbursements depend on the size of the potential target population, we performed a scoping review and meta-analysis of the prevalence of these pan-tumour biomarkers in different cancers. We systematically searched Medline/Embase and included studies reporting the prevalence of dMMR/MSI/high TMB in solid tumours published 01/01/2018-31/01/2021. Meta-analyses were performed separately for the pan-cancer prevalence of each biomarker, and by cancer type and stage where possible. The searches identified 3890 papers, with 433 prevalence estimates for 32 different cancer types from 201 studies included in meta-analyses. The pooled overall prevalence of dMMR, MSI and high TMB (≥ 10 mutations/Mb) in pan-cancer studies was 2.9%, 2.7% and 14.0%, respectively. The prevalence profiles of dMMR/MSI and high TMB differed across cancer types. For example, endometrial, colorectal, small bowel and gastric cancers showed high prevalence of both dMMR and MSI (range: 8.7-26.8% and 8.5-21.9%, respectively) and high TMB (range: 8.5-43.0%), while cervical, esophageal, bladder/urothelial, lung and skin cancers showed low prevalence of dMMR and MSI (< 5%), but high prevalence of high TMB (range: 23.7-52.6%). For other cancer types, prevalence of all three biomarkers was generally low (< 5%). This structured review of dMMR/MSI/high TMB prevalence across cancers and for specific cancer types and stages provide timely evidence to inform budget impact forecasts in health technology assessments for drug approvals based on these pan-tumour biomarkers.

Stacking ensemble learning model to predict 6-month mortality in ischemic stroke patients.

Patients with acute ischemic stroke can benefit from reperfusion therapy. Nevertheless, there are gray areas where initiation of reperfusion therapy is neither supported nor contraindicated by the current practice guidelines. In these situations, a prediction model for mortality can be beneficial in decision-making. This study aimed to develop a mortality prediction model for acute ischemic stroke patients not receiving reperfusion therapies using a stacking ensemble learning model. The model used an artificial neural network as an ensemble classifier. Seven base classifiers were K-nearest neighbors, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting, random forest, naive Bayes, artificial neural network, and logistic regression algorithms. From the clinical data in the International Stroke Trial database, we selected a concise set of variables assessable at the presentation. The primary study outcome was all-cause mortality at 6 months. Our stacking ensemble model predicted 6-month mortality with acceptable performance in ischemic stroke patients not receiving reperfusion therapy. The area under the curve of receiver-operating characteristics, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the stacking ensemble classifier on a put-aside validation set were 0.783 (95% confidence interval 0.758-0.808), 71.6% (69.3-74.2), 72.3% (69.2-76.4%), and 70.9% (68.9-74.3%), respectively.

The predicted effect and cost-effectiveness of tailoring colonoscopic surveillance according to mismatch repair gene in patients with Lynch syndrome.

PURPOSE: Lynch syndrome-related colorectal cancer (CRC) risk substantially varies by mismatch repair (MMR) gene. We evaluated the health impact and cost-effectiveness of MMR gene-tailored colonoscopic surveillance. METHODS: We first estimated sex- and MMR gene-specific cumulative lifetime risk of first CRC without colonoscopic surveillance using an optimization algorithm. Next, we harnessed these risk estimates in a microsimulation model, "Policy1-Lynch," and compared 126 colonoscopic surveillance strategies against no surveillance. RESULTS: The most cost-effective strategy was 3-yearly surveillance from age 25 to 70 years (pathogenic variants [path_] in MLH1 [path_MLH1], path_MSH2) with delayed surveillance for path_MSH6 (age 30-70 years) and path_PMS2 (age 35-70 years) heterozygotes (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio = Australian dollars (A) $8,833/life-year saved). This strategy averted 60 CRC deaths (153 colonoscopies per death averted) over the lifetime of 1000 confirmed patients with Lynch syndrome (vs no surveillance). This also reduced colonoscopies by 5% without substantial change in health outcomes (vs nontailored 3-yearly surveillance from 25-70 years). Generally, starting surveillance at age 25 (vs 20) years was more cost-effective with minimal effect on life-years saved and starting 5 to 10 years later for path_MSH6 and path_PMS2 heterozygotes (vs path_MLH1 and path_MSH2) further improved cost-effectiveness. Surveillance end age (70/75/80 years) had a minor effect. Three-yearly surveillance strategies were more cost-effective (vs 1 or 2-yearly) but prevented 3 fewer CRC deaths. CONCLUSION: MMR gene-specific colonoscopic surveillance would be effective and cost-effective.

Lynch syndrome testing of colorectal cancer patients in a high-income country with universal healthcare: a retrospective study of current practice and gaps in seven australian hospitals.

BACKGROUND: To inform effective genomic medicine strategies, it is important to examine current approaches and gaps in well-established applications. Lynch syndrome (LS) causes 3-5% of colorectal cancers (CRCs). While guidelines commonly recommend LS tumour testing of all CRC patients, implementation in health systems is known to be highly variable. To provide insights on the heterogeneity in practice and current bottlenecks in a high-income country with universal healthcare, we characterise the approaches and gaps in LS testing and referral in seven Australian hospitals across three states. METHODS: We obtained surgery, pathology, and genetics services data for 1,624 patients who underwent CRC resections from 01/01/2017 to 31/12/2018 in the included hospitals. RESULTS: Tumour testing approaches differed between hospitals, with 0-19% of patients missing mismatch repair deficiency test results (total 211/1,624 patients). Tumour tests to exclude somatic MLH1 loss were incomplete at five hospitals (42/187 patients). Of 74 patients with tumour tests completed appropriately and indicating high risk of LS, 36 (49%) were missing a record of referral to genetics services for diagnostic testing, with higher missingness for older patients (0% of patients aged ≤ 40 years, 76% of patients aged > 70 years). Of 38 patients with high-risk tumour test results and genetics services referral, diagnostic testing was carried out for 25 (89%) and identified a LS pathogenic/likely pathogenic variant for 11 patients (44% of 25; 0.7% of 1,624 patients). CONCLUSIONS: Given the LS testing and referral gaps, further work is needed to identify strategies for successful integration of LS testing into clinical care, and provide a model for hereditary cancers and broader genomic medicine. Standardised reporting may help clinicians interpret tumour test results and initiate further actions.

What would I do? Perspectives on the factors underlying Lynch syndrome genetic testing and results sharing decisions for high-risk colorectal cancer patients.

OBJECTIVE: Universal tumour testing for Lynch syndrome (LS) in all incident colorectal cancers (CRCs) and sequential diagnostic genetic testing is cost-effective in Australia. Because of this, our study aimed to understand factors underlying possible decisions faced by tumour test-positive CRC patients and their at-risk relatives throughout the LS diagnosis pathway. METHODS: Semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with 23 participants, using four hypothetical scenarios. Vignette-guided closed- and open-ended questions asked about LS genetic testing uptake, discussing diagnosis with at-risk relatives, and risk-reducing interventions. Personal perspectives on genetic testing were collected pre-post vignette discussion. Inductive thematic analysis was performed on open-ended questions. Decisional pathway diagrams were developed to convey factors influencing complex decision-making processes. RESULTS: Participant responses incorporated unfolding scenario information, resulting in three decision themes: (1) wanting to know one's LS status; (2) informing family about LS; (3) navigating risk-reducing interventions. Across all themes, 'knowledge' emerged as a facilitator, and 'negative emotional experience' as a barrier. Personal supportive views toward genetic testing increased post-interview. CONCLUSIONS: When communicating with tumour test-positive CRC patients or their relatives about LS genetic testing, providing guidance/resources to inform decisions around risk-reducing interventions and informing family members is critical. Scenario-driven interviews provide insight into what individuals might do when facing complex healthcare decisions and could aid informed decision-making. This approach may be applicable in other conditions, particularly with mainstreaming being increasingly introduced into the genetic context.

The Risk-Reducing Effect of Aspirin in Lynch Syndrome Carriers: Development and Evaluation of an Educational Leaflet.

Carriers of germline mutations in genes associated with Lynch syndrome are at increased risk for colorectal, endometrial, ovarian, and other cancers. There is evidence that daily consumption of aspirin may reduce cancer risk in these individuals. There is a need for educational resources to inform carriers of the risk-reducing effects of aspirin or to support decision-making. An educational leaflet describing the risks and benefits of using aspirin as risk-reducing medicine in carriers of Lynch-syndrome-related mutations is developed and pilot tested in 2017. Carriers are ascertained through a familial cancer clinic and surveyed using a mailed, self-administered questionnaire. The leaflet is highly rated for its content, clarity, length, relevance, and visual appeal by more than 70% of the participants. Most participants (91%) report "a lot" or "quite a bit" of improvement in perceived understanding in knowledge about who might benefit from taking aspirin, its benefits, how long to take it, the reduction in bowel cancer risk, and the optimal dosage. A few (14%) participants seek more information on the dosage of aspirin. This leaflet will be useful as an aid to facilitate discussion between patients and their health care professionals about the use of aspirin as a risk-reducing medication.

TEM sample preparation of microsized LiMn2O4 powder using an ion slicer.

The main purpose of this paper is the preparation of transmission electron microscopy (TEM) samples from the microsized powders of lithium-ion secondary batteries. To avoid artefacts during TEM sample preparation, the use of ion slicer milling for thinning and maintaining the intrinsic structure is described. Argon-ion milling techniques have been widely examined to make optimal specimens, thereby making TEM analysis more reliable. In the past few years, the correction of spherical aberration (Cs) in scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) has been developing rapidly, which results in direct observation at an atomic level resolution not only at a high acceleration voltage but also at a deaccelerated voltage. In particular, low-kV application has markedly increased, which requires a sufficiently transparent specimen without structural distortion during the sample preparation process. In this study, sample preparation for high-resolution STEM observation is accomplished, and investigations on the crystal integrity are carried out by Cs-corrected STEM.

Association Between Melanoma Detected During Routine Skin Checks and Mortality.

IMPORTANCE: Early melanoma diagnosis is associated with better health outcomes, but there is insufficient evidence that screening, such as having routine skin checks, reduces mortality. OBJECTIVE: To assess melanoma-specific and all-cause mortality associated with melanomas detected through routine skin checks, incidentally or patient detected. A secondary aim was to examine patient, sociodemographic, and clinicopathologic factors associated with different modes of melanoma detection. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This prospective, population-based, cohort study included patients in New South Wales, Australia, who were diagnosed with melanoma over 1 year from October 23, 2006, to October 22, 2007, in the Melanoma Patterns of Care Study and followed up until 2018 (mean [SD] length of follow-up, 11.9 [0.3] years) by using linked mortality and cancer registry data. All patients who had invasive melanomas recorded at the cancer registry were eligible for the study, but the number of in situ melanomas was capped. The treating doctors recorded details of melanoma detection and patient and clinical characteristics in a baseline questionnaire. Histopathologic variables were obtained from pathology reports. Of 3932 recorded melanomas, data were available and analyzed for 2452 (62%; 1 per patient) with primary in situ (n = 291) or invasive (n = 2161) cutaneous melanoma. Data were analyzed from March 2020 to January 2021. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Melanoma-specific mortality and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: A total of 2452 patients were included in the analyses. The median age at diagnosis was 65 years (range, 16-98 years), and 1502 patients (61%) were men. A total of 858 patients (35%) had their melanoma detected during a routine skin check, 1148 (47%) self-detected their melanoma, 293 (12%) had their melanoma discovered incidentally when checking another skin lesion, and 153 (6%) reported "other" presentation. Routine skin-check detection of invasive melanomas was associated with 59% lower melanoma-specific mortality (subhazard ratio, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.28-0.60; P < .001) and 36% lower all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.54-0.76; P < .001), adjusted for age and sex, compared with patient-detected melanomas. After adjusting for prognostic factors including ulceration and mitotic rate, the associations were 0.68 (95% CI, 0.44-1.03; P = .13), and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.63-0.90; P = .006), respectively. Factors associated with higher odds of routine skin-check melanoma detection included being male (female vs male, odds ratio [OR], 0.73; 95% CI, 0.60-0.89; P = .003), having previous melanoma (vs none, OR, 2.36; 95% CI, 1.77-3.15; P < .001), having many moles (vs not, OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.10-1.77; P = .02), being 50 years or older (eg, 50-59 years vs <40 years, OR, 2.89; 95% CI, 1.92-4.34; P < .001), and living in nonremote areas (eg, remote or very remote vs major cities, OR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.05-1.04; P = .003). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cohort study, melanomas diagnosed through routine skin checks were associated with significantly lower all-cause mortality, but not melanoma-specific mortality, after adjustment for patient, sociodemographic, and clinicopathologic factors.

Prevalence of skin examination behaviours among Australians over time.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to examine the prevalence and correlates of opportunistic skin check behaviours among Australians and whether changes over time might explain increasing underlying rates of melanoma in situ. METHODS: The National Sun Protection Survey involved periodic telephone-based cross-sectional surveys during summer since 2003. Skin checks by a doctor in the past 12 months was asked in four summers over 2006-2017, and responses from 23,374 Australians aged 12-69 years were analysed. Prevalence estimates were weighted to be representative of the Australian population. Chi-square tests compared the prevalence over time and by characteristics. RESULTS: The overall proportion reporting whole-body skin checks in the past 12 months was 20 % in 2006-07 and 2010-11, 21 % in 2013-14, and 22 % in 2016-17; but increased from 29 % in 2006-07 to 37 % in 2016-17 for those aged 45-69 years (p < 0.0001). In 2016-17, 5% reported a skin check of part-body and 9% for a specific mole or spot. The proportion reporting no skin checks increased from 61 % to 64 % over time (p < 0.0001). Whole-body skin checks were more common among older respondents, females, and also varied by residence location, skin sensitivity, skin colour, risk perception, and socio-economic index (all p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Approximately one third of Australians had their skin checked by a doctor within a 12-month period, but this varied across population sub-groups. Skin check behaviours were relatively stable over time, with modest increases in the prevalence of skin checks for those aged 45-69 years. These findings do not explain underlying large increases in rates of melanoma in situ.

Effects of dabigatran and rivaroxaban on stroke severity according to the results of routine coagulation tests.

INTRODUCTION: Prior use of direct oral anticoagulants has been associated with reduced stroke severity in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of prothrombin time (PT) and activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) on stroke severity in patients who were receiving dabigatran or rivaroxaban at the time of stroke onset. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We enrolled 107 patients with NVAF who developed acute ischemic stroke while on dabigatran or rivaroxaban and presented within 24 hours to nine hospitals between January 2014 and December 2018. The results of PT and aPTT assays were obtained within 24 hours of stroke onset in all patients. We analyzed PT and aPTT in relation to stroke severity and ischemic lesion volume using correlation and multivariable regression analyses. RESULTS: Of the 107 patients included, 46 (43.0%) were on dabigatran and 61 (57.0%) were on rivaroxaban. In patients with prior dabigatran use, while aPTT was inversely correlated with admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score (r = -0.369, p = 0.012) and ischemic lesion volume (r = -0.480, p = 0.005), there was no correlation between PT and either of these variables. Multivariable analysis confirmed the existence of a significant independent inverse relationship between aPTT and NIHSS score at admission (B, -0.201; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.370 to -0.032; p = 0.005) and between aPTT and ischemic lesion volume (B, -0.076; 95% CI, -0.130 to -0.023; p = 0.007). In patients with prior rivaroxaban use, neither PT nor aPTT was associated with admission NIHSS score or ischemic lesion volume in the correlation and multivariable analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with NVAF who were receiving dabigatran, prolonged aPTT was associated with reduced stroke severity.

Prediction of early neurological deterioration in acute minor ischemic stroke by machine learning algorithms.

OBJECTIVES: A significant proportion of patients with acute minor stroke have unfavorable functional outcome due to early neurological deterioration (END). The purpose of this study was to evaluate the applicability of machine learning algorithms to predict END in patients with acute minor stroke. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We collected clinical and neuroimaging information from patients with acute minor stroke with NIHSS score of ≤ 3. Early neurological deterioration was defined as any worsening of NIHSS score within 3 days after admission. Unfavorable functional outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Scale score of ≥ 2. We also compared clinical and neuroimaging information between patients with and without END. Four machine learning algorithms, i.e., Boosted trees, Bootstrap decision forest, Deep neural network, and Logistic Regression, were selected and trained by our dataset to predict early neurological deterioration RESULTS: A total of 739 patients were included in this study. 78 patients (10.6%) experienced END. Among 78 patients with END, 61 (78.2%) had unfavorable functional outcome at 90 days after stroke onset. On multivariate analysis, the initial NIHSS score (P = 0.003), hemorrhagic transformation (P = 0.010), and stenosis (P = 0.014) or occlusion (P = 0.004) of a relevant artery were independently associated with END. Of the four machine learning algorithms, Boosted trees, Deep neural network, and Logistic Regression can be used to predict END in patients with acute minor stroke (Boosted trees: accuracy = 0.966, F1 score = 0.8 and area under the curve = 0.934, Deep neural network :0.966, 0.8, and 0. 904, and Logistic Regression : 0.966, 0.8, and 0.885). CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that machine learning algorithms that integrate clinical and neuroimaging information can be used to predict END in patients with acute minor stroke. Further studies based on larger, multicenter datasets are needed to predict END accurately for designing treatment strategies and obtaining favorable functional outcome.

The predicted impact and cost-effectiveness of systematic testing of people with incident colorectal cancer for Lynch syndrome.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the health impact and cost-effectiveness of systematic testing for Lynch syndrome (LS) in people with incident colorectal cancer (CRC) in Australia. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: We investigated the impact of LS testing strategies in a micro-simulation model (Policy1-Lynch), explicitly modelling the cost of testing all patients diagnosed with incident CRC during 2017, with detailed modelling of outcomes for patients identified as LS carriers (probands) and their at-risk relatives throughout their lifetimes. For people with confirmed LS, we modelled ongoing colonoscopic surveillance. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost-effectiveness of six universal tumour testing strategies (testing for DNA mismatch repair deficiencies) and of universal germline gene panel testing of patients with incident CRC; impact on cost-effectiveness of restricting testing by age at CRC diagnosis (all ages, under 50/60/70 years) and of colonoscopic surveillance interval (one, two years). RESULTS: The cost-effectiveness ratio of universal tumour testing strategies (annual colonoscopic surveillance, no testing age limit) compared with no testing ranged from $28 915 to $31 904/life-year saved (LYS) (indicative willingness-to-pay threshold: $30 000-$50 000/LYS). These strategies could avert 184-189 CRC deaths with an additional 30 597-31 084 colonoscopies over the lifetimes of 1000 patients with incident CRC with LS and 1420 confirmed LS carrier relatives (164-166 additional colonoscopies/death averted). The most cost-effective strategy was immunohistochemistry and BRAF V600E testing (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER], $28 915/LYS). Universal germline gene panel testing was not cost-effective compared with universal tumour testing strategies (ICER, $2.4 million/LYS). Immunohistochemistry and BRAF V600E testing was cost-effective at all age limits when paired with 2-yearly colonoscopic surveillance (ICER, $11 525-$32 153/LYS), and required 4778-15 860 additional colonoscopies to avert 46-181 CRC deaths (88-103 additional colonoscopies/death averted). CONCLUSIONS: Universal tumour testing strategies for guiding germline genetic testing of people with incident CRC for LS in Australia are likely to be cost-effective compared with no testing. Universal germline gene panel testing would not currently be cost-effective.

Cancer screening in Australia: future directions in melanoma, Lynch syndrome, and liver, lung and prostate cancers.

While Australia now has well-established national screening programs for breast, bowel and cervical cancers, research continues into the feasibility of developing systematic screening programs for a number of other cancers. In this paper, experts in their fields provide perspectives on the current state of play and future directions for screening and surveillance for melanoma, Lynch syndrome, and liver, lung and prostate cancers in Australia. Although the evidence does not support population screening, there may be opportunities to prevent thousands of deaths through systematic approaches to the early detection of lung cancer and melanoma, testing for Lynch syndrome, and organised surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma among individuals at high risk - guided by targeted research. The paper also looks at what impact new prostate specific antigen testing guidelines are having on screening for prostate cancer.

Benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of cancer screening in Australia: an overview of modelling estimates.

INTRODUCTION: There are three government-funded population-based screening programs in Australia - the national breast cancer screening program (BreastScreen Australia), the National Cervical Screening Program (NCSP), and the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP). Options for early detection of other cancers (e.g. hepatocellular carcinoma and melanoma) are under investigation. This study provides an overview of the health benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of population-level breast, cervical and colorectal cancer screening, targeted-risk screening for lung cancer and Lynch syndrome, and prostate specific antigen (PSA) testing in Australia. METHODS: The study reviewed and, where possible, updated the estimated health benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of screening approaches from modelling studies for four cancer types, PSA testing and Lynch syndrome testing in Australia. Costs are presented in 2018 Australian dollars. RESULTS: The renewed NCSP (for women not HPV-vaccinated) and the NBCSP were estimated to be cost-effective versus no screening; the cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) was $16 632 per life-year saved (LYS) for the NCSP, and $3380/LYS for the NBCSP. BreastScreen Australia was predicted to have a CER of $40 279/LYS-$65 065/LYS. In 2017, the NCSP transitioned to 5-yearly primary HPV testing with partial genotyping for HPV types 16 and 18 for women aged 25-74 years. Alongside vaccination, this change is predicted to prevent a further 587 cervical cancer deaths in 2018-2035, and have a favourable benefit-to-harm balance versus prior practice (biennial cytology testing for women aged 18-69 years). On average, the NBCSP (biennial screening using an immunochemical faecal occult blood test for people aged 50-74 years) is estimated to prevent 2519 colorectal cancer deaths and result in 350 colonoscopy-related adverse events annually. The inaccuracy of PSA testing as a screening tool impedes the capacity to conduct meaningful cost-effectiveness analyses at a population level, based on current evidence. Three annual low-dose computed tomography screens for lung cancer using the US National Lung Screening Trial selection criteria would not be cost-effective in Australia. A comprehensive cost-effectiveness evaluation of systematic proband testing, cascade testing and subsequent surveillance for Lynch syndrome in Australia is currently underway. CONCLUSIONS: Current evidence supports a favourable cost-effectiveness and benefit-to-harm balance for the NCSP and NBCSP. An updated cost-effectiveness and benefits-to-harms analysis for BreastScreen Australia is required. Carefully founded quantitative estimates of health benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness provide an important aid to policy decision making, and form the basis for developing decision aids to guide individual screening decisions. Opportunities exist for lung cancer screening, systematic Lynch syndrome testing and informed decision making about PSA testing. However, more evidence is required on risk assessment, targeting of screening tests, optimal referral pathways, managing potential harms and delivering services in a cost-effective framework.