Age and Ebola viral load correlate with mortality and survival time in 288 Ebola virus disease patients.

BACKGROUND: A Chinese medical team managed Ebola virus disease (EVD) patients in Sierra Leone from October 2014 to March 2015 and attended to 693 suspected patients, of whom 288 had confirmed disease. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted of the 288 patients with confirmed disease. Clinical symptoms, manifestations, and serum viral load were analyzed and compared among the different groups for mortality and survival time. RESULTS: Among the 288 confirmed EVD patients (149 male and 139 female, median age 28 years, and median log viral load 6.68), 98 died, 36 recovered, and 154 were lost to follow-up. Common symptoms were fever (77.78%), fatigue (64.93%), abdominal pain (64.58%), headache (62.85%), and diarrhea (61.81%). Compared to patients aged<18 years, those who were older than 40 years had a higher probability of death (odds ratio 2.855, p=0.044). Patients with a viral load of >10(6) copies/ml had a higher case fatality rate than those with <10(6) copies/ml (odds ratio 3.095, p=0.004). Cox regression showed that age, viral load, and the presence of diarrhea correlated with mortality. CONCLUSION: Patients with a high viral load, of older age, and with diarrhea had a higher mortality and shorter survival time.

Prognostic Analysis of Patients with Ebola Virus Disease.

BACKGROUND: The Ebola virus causes an acute, serious illness which is often fatal if untreated. However, factors affecting the survival of the disease remain unclear. Here, we investigated the prognostic factors of Ebola virus disease (EVD) through various statistical models. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Sixty three laboratory-confirmed EVD patients with relatively complete clinical profiles were included in the study. All the patients were recruited at Jui Government Hospital, Sierra Leone between October 1st, 2014 and January 18th, 2015. We first investigated whether a single clinical presentation would be correlated with the survival of EVD. Log-rank test demonstrated that patients with viral load higher than 10(6) copies/ml presented significantly shorter survival time than those whose viral load were lower than 10(6) copies/ml (P = 0.005). Also, using Pearson chi-square test, we identified that chest pain, coma, and viral load (>10(6) copies/ml) were significantly associated with poor survival of EVD patients. Furthermore, we evaluated the effect of multiple variables on the survival of EVD by Cox proportional hazards model. Interestingly, results revealed that patient's age, symptom of confusion, and viral load were the significantly associated with the survival of EVD cases (P = 0.017, P = 0.002, and P = 0.027, respectively). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results suggest that age, chest pain, coma, confusion and viral load are associated with the prognosis of EVD, in which viral load could be one of the most important factors for the survival of the disease.