Identifying weak signals to prepare for uncertainty in the energy sector.

This study aims to prepare the energy sector for uncertainty using a foresight tool known as weak signals. Weak signals (subtle signs of emerging issues with significant impact potential) are often overlooked during strategic planning due to their inherent predictive uncertainty. However, the value does not lie in precise forecasting but in broadening the consideration of future possibilities. By proactively monitoring and addressing these otherwise neglected developments, stakeholders can gain early awareness of threats and opportunities and enhance their resilience, adaptability, and innovation. A panel of technology experts identified eight weak signals in this study: 1) growing mistrust and local grid security measures, 2) consumer reactions to overly prescriptive policies, 3) long-term forecasting errors for thin-margin projects, 4) emergence of variable power industries, and 5) establishment of intercontinental transmission precedence; including three potential 'wild cards' requiring proactive mitigation: 6) escalating electrical generation dependence on continued imports, 7) a new threat surpassing climate change, and 8) mass deployment of low-emissions technology triggering a runaway loss of social license. Political factors were the predominant source of uncertainty, as decisions can suddenly transform the energy landscape. Economic, technological, and social factors followed closely behind, generally through the emergence of new industries and behavioural responses. While environmental and legal factors were less frequent, stakeholders should still adopt a holistic approach, as the signals were found to be highly interconnected. Organisations should also assess their local context when applying these findings and continuously update and respond to their own list of weak signals.

Assessing Australia's future solar power ramps with climate projections.

Increasing levels of photovoltaic (PV) penetration to the electricity grid brings challenges to both design and operation of the grid due to its vulnerability to climate change. A crucial aspect of PV operation is power ramps leading to variability and instability in the grid. With notable large-scale PV deployment planned, including the world's largest planned solar energy infrastructure in Powell Creek Australia, characterising future ramps is crucial for ensuring stable power generation to support large-scale economic development. Using CORDEX-Australasia projections under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 emission scenarios, future solar ramps across Australia have been characterised up to 2100. Results predict a reduction in ramp magnitude across Australia, with changes in frequency and period length varying with the location. This work highlights the importance of considering future changes in climate when designing large-scale solar farms to ensure the incorporation of frequency control devices and storage plans for a reliable power supply.