PERSONALIZED HYPOTHESIS TESTS FOR DETECTING MEDICATION RESPONSE IN PARKINSON DISEASE PATIENTS USING iPHONE SENSOR DATA.

We propose hypothesis tests for detecting dopaminergic medication response in Parkinson disease patients, using longitudinal sensor data collected by smartphones. The processed data is composed of multiple features extracted from active tapping tasks performed by the participant on a daily basis, before and after medication, over several months. Each extracted feature corresponds to a time series of measurements annotated according to whether the measurement was taken before or after the patient has taken his/her medication. Even though the data is longitudinal in nature, we show that simple hypothesis tests for detecting medication response, which ignore the serial correlation structure of the data, are still statistically valid, showing type I error rates at the nominal level. We propose two distinct personalized testing approaches. In the first, we combine multiple feature-specific tests into a single union-intersection test. In the second, we construct personalized classifiers of the before/after medication labels using all the extracted features of a given participant, and test the null hypothesis that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the classifier is equal to 1/2. We compare the statistical power of the personalized classifier tests and personalized union-intersection tests in a simulation study, and illustrate the performance of the proposed tests using data from mPower Parkinsons disease study, recently launched as part of Apples ResearchKit mobile platform. Our results suggest that the personalized tests, which ignore the longitudinal aspect of the data, can perform well in real data analyses, suggesting they might be used as a sound baseline approach, to which more sophisticated methods can be compared to.

Prediction of human population responses to toxic compounds by a collaborative competition.

The ability to computationally predict the effects of toxic compounds on humans could help address the deficiencies of current chemical safety testing. Here, we report the results from a community-based DREAM challenge to predict toxicities of environmental compounds with potential adverse health effects for human populations. We measured the cytotoxicity of 156 compounds in 884 lymphoblastoid cell lines for which genotype and transcriptional data are available as part of the Tox21 1000 Genomes Project. The challenge participants developed algorithms to predict interindividual variability of toxic response from genomic profiles and population-level cytotoxicity data from structural attributes of the compounds. 179 submitted predictions were evaluated against an experimental data set to which participants were blinded. Individual cytotoxicity predictions were better than random, with modest correlations (Pearson's r < 0.28), consistent with complex trait genomic prediction. In contrast, predictions of population-level response to different compounds were higher (r < 0.66). The results highlight the possibility of predicting health risks associated with unknown compounds, although risk estimation accuracy remains suboptimal.