Global shocks, cascading disruptions, and (re-)connections: viewing the COVID-19 pandemic as concurrent natural experiments to understand land system dynamics.

Context: For nearly three years, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted human well-being and livelihoods, communities, and economies in myriad ways with consequences for social-ecological systems across the planet. The pandemic represents a global shock in multiple dimensions that has already, and is likely to continue to have, far-reaching effects on land systems and on those depending on them for their livelihoods. Objectives: We focus on the observed effects of the pandemic on landscapes and people composing diverse land systems across the globe. Methods: We highlight the interrelated impacts of the pandemic shock on the economic, health, and mobility dimensions of land systems using six vignettes from different land systems on four continents, analyzed through the lens of socio-ecological resilience and the telecoupling framework. We present preliminary comparative insights gathered through interviews, surveys, key informants, and authors' observations and propose new research avenues for land system scientists. Results: The pandemic's effects have been unevenly distributed, context-specific, and dependent on the multiple connections that link land systems across the globe. Conclusions: We argue that the pandemic presents concurrent "natural experiments" that can advance our understanding of the intricate ways in which global shocks produce direct, indirect, and spillover effects on local and regional landscapes and land systems. These propagating shock effects disrupt existing connections, forge new connections, and re-establish former connections between peoples, landscapes, and land systems. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-023-01604-2.

Richer histories for more relevant policies: 42 years of tree cover loss and gain in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia.

Understandings of contemporary forest cover loss are critical for policy but have come at the expense of long-term, multidirectional analyses of land cover change. This is a critical gap given (i) profound reconfigurations in land use and land control over the past several decades and (ii) evidence of widespread 'woodland resurgence' throughout the tropics. In this study, we argue that recent advancements within the field of land change science provide new opportunities to address this gap. In turn, we suggest that multidecadal and multidirectional analyses of land cover change can facilitate richer social analyses of land cover change and more relevant conservation policies and practice. Our argument is grounded in a case study from Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia. Using a novel analytical platform, Google Earth Engine, and open access to high-quality Landsat data, we map land cover change in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, from 1972 to 2014. We find that tree cover loss constitutes the single largest net change over the period 1972-2014 but that gross rates of tree cover gain were three times higher than gross loss rates from 1972 to 1995 and equivalent to loss rates from 1995 to 2014. We suggest the smallholder tree crop economy likely produced both forest loss and Imperata grassland restoration in this region. This case points to the need to expand rather than collapse the baselines used to study carbon and biodiversity change in tropical regions. It also demonstrates the possible utility of applying such methods to other regions.