Decarbonization potential of electrifying 50% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales by 2030.

The U.S. federal government has established goals of electrifying 50% of new light-duty vehicle sales by 2030 and reducing economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions 50-52% by 2030, from 2005 levels. Here we evaluate the vehicle electrification goal in the context of the economy-wide emissions goal. We use a vehicle fleet model and a life cycle emissions model to project vehicle sales, stock, and emissions. To account for state-level variability in electric vehicle adoption and electric grid emissions factors, we apply the models to each state. By 2030, greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by approximately 25% (from 2005) for the light-duty vehicle fleet, primarily due to fleet turnover of conventional vehicles. By 2035, emissions reductions approach 45% if both vehicle electrification and grid decarbonization goals (100% by 2035) are met. To meet climate goals, the transition to electric vehicles must be accompanied by an accelerated decarbonization of the electric grid and other actions.

Carbon Footprint of Alternative Grocery Shopping and Transportation Options from Retail Distribution Centers to Customer.

The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the growth of e-commerce and automated warehouses, vehicles, and robots and has created new options for grocery supply chains. We report and compare the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for a 36-item grocery basket transported along 72 unique paths from a centralized warehouse to the customer, including impacts of micro-fulfillment centers, refrigeration, vehicle automation, and last-mile transportation. Our base case is in-store shopping with last-mile transportation using an internal combustion engine (ICE) SUV (6.0 kg CO2e). The results indicate that emissions reductions could be achieved by e-commerce with micro-fulfillment centers (16-54%), customer vehicle electrification (18-42%), or grocery delivery (22-65%) compared to the base case. In-store shopping with an ICE pick-up truck has the highest emissions of all paths investigated (6.9 kg CO2e) while delivery using a sidewalk automated robot has the least (1.0 kg CO2e). Shopping frequency is an important factor for households to consider, e.g. halving shopping frequency can reduce GHG emissions by 44%. Trip chaining also offers an opportunity to reduce emissions with approximately 50% savings compared to the base case. Opportunities for grocers and households to reduce grocery supply chain carbon footprints are identified and discussed.

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of the USPS Next-Generation Delivery Vehicle Fleet.

The United States Postal Service (USPS) plans to purchase 165,000 next-generation delivery vehicles (NGDVs) between 2023 and 2032. The USPS submitted an environmental impact statement (EIS) for two NGDV procurement scenarios: (1) 90% internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and 10% battery electric vehicles (BEVs) ("ICEV scenario") and (2) 100% BEVs ("BEV scenario"). To correct several significant deficiencies in the EIS, we conduct a cradle-to-grave life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) assessment of these two scenarios. Our analysis improves upon the USPS's EIS by including vehicle production and end-of-life emissions, future grid decarbonization, and more accurate vehicle operating emissions. In our base case, we find that the ICEV and BEV scenarios would result in 15% greater and 8% fewer GHG emissions, respectively, than the USPS estimate. Favorable vehicle and grid development would result in 63% lower BEV scenario emissions than the USPS estimate. Consequently, we calculate a cumulative lifetime emission reduction of 57-82% (14.7-21.4 Mt CO2e) from procuring 100% BEVs instead of 10% BEVs, compared to the USPS's estimate of 10.3 Mt. Given the long NGDV lifetimes, committing to the ICEV scenario squanders an ideal use case for BEVs, jeopardizes meeting our climate goals, and forgoes potential climate and environmental justice co-benefits.

Assessing the Relative Climate Impact of Carbon Utilization for Concrete, Chemical, and Mineral Production.

Estimates show that 6.2 gigatons of carbon dioxide (CO2) can be captured and utilized across three pathways, concrete, chemical, and minerals, by 2050. However, it is difficult to compare the climate benefit across these three carbon capture and utilization (CCU) pathways to determine the most effective use of captured CO2. The life cycle assessment methods to evaluate the climate benefit of CCU chemicals should additionally account for the change in material properties of concrete due to CO2 utilization. Furthermore, with most CO2 utilization technologies being in the early stages of research and development, the uncertainty and variability in process and inventory data present a significant challenge in evaluating the climate benefit. We present a stochastically determined climate return on investment (ROI) metric to rank and prioritize CO2 utilization across 20 concrete, chemical and mineral pathways based on the realized climate benefit. We show that two concrete pathways, which use CO2 during concrete mixing, and two chemical pathways, which produce formic acid through hydrogenation of CO2 and carbon monoxide through dry reforming of methane, generate the greatest climate ROI and are the only CCU pathways with a higher likelihood of generating a climate benefit than a climate burden.

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Last-Mile Parcel Delivery by Automated Vehicles and Robots.

Increased E-commerce and demand for contactless delivery during the COVID-19 pandemic have fueled interest in robotic package delivery. We evaluate life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for automated suburban ground delivery systems consisting of a vehicle (last-mile) and a robot (final-50-feet). Small and large cargo vans (125 and 350 cubic feet; V125 and V350) with an internal combustion engine (ICEV) and battery electric (BEV) powertrains were assessed for three delivery scenarios: (i) conventional, human-driven vehicle with human delivery; (ii) partially automated, human-driven vehicle with robot delivery; and (iii) fully automated, connected automated vehicle (CAV) with robot delivery. The robot's contribution to life cycle GHG emissions is small (2-6%). Compared to the conventional scenario, full automation results in similar GHG emissions for the V350-ICEV but 10% higher for the V125-BEV. Conventional delivery with a V125-BEV provides the lowest GHG emissions, 167 g CO2e/package, while partially automated delivery with a V350-ICEV generates the most at 486 g CO2e/package. Fuel economy and delivery density are key parameters, and electrification of the vehicle and carbon intensity of the electricity have a large impact. CAV power requirements and efficiency benefits largely offset each other, and automation has a moderate impact on life cycle GHG emissions.

Charging Strategies to Minimize Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Electrified Delivery Vehicles.

Electrification of delivery fleets has emerged as an important opportunity to reduce the transportation sector's environmental impact, including reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. When, where, and how vehicles are charged, however, impact the reduction potential. Not only does the carbon intensity of the grid vary across time and space, but charging decisions also influence battery degradation rates, resulting in more or less frequent battery replacement. Here, we propose a model that accounts for the spatial and temporal differences in charging emissions using marginal emission factors and degradation-induced differences in production emissions using a semi-empirical degradation model. We analyze four different charging strategies and demonstrate that a baseline charging scenario, in which a vehicle is fully charged immediately upon returning to a central depot, results in the highest emissions and employing alternative charging methods can reduce emissions by 8-37%. We show that when, where, and how batteries are charged also impact the total cost of ownership. Although the lowest cost and the lowest emitting charging strategies often align, the lowest cost deployment location for electric delivery vehicles may not be in the same location that maximizes environmental benefits.

Individual US diets show wide variation in water scarcity footprints.

Agriculture accounts for 80% of global freshwater consumption but the environmental impacts of water use are highly localized and depend on water scarcity. The water use impacts of food production should be a key consideration of sustainable diets, yet little is known of the water scarcity demands of diets, especially of individuals. Here we estimate the water scarcity footprint (WSF)-a water use impact metric that accounts for regional scarcity-of individual diets in the United States (n = 16,800) and find a fivefold variation between the highest and lowest quintile of diets ranked by WSF. Larger intakes of some meat, fruit, nuts and vegetables drive these differences. Meat consumption is the greatest contributor (31%) to the WSF of the average diet, and within that, beef contributes about six times that of chicken. Variation between substitutable foods provides insight into diet shifts that can reduce WSF. We introduce a novel, geospatially explicit approach that combines the types and quantities of foods in the diets of individuals, the irrigation water required to produce those foods and the relative scarcity of water where that irrigation occurs.

Life Cycle Assessment of Urine Diversion and Conversion to Fertilizer Products at the City Scale.

Urine diversion has been proposed as an approach for producing renewable fertilizers and reducing nutrient loads to wastewater treatment plants. Life cycle assessment was used to compare environmental impacts of the operations phase of urine diversion and fertilizer processing systems [via (1) a urine concentration alternative and (2) a struvite precipitation and ion exchange alternative] at a city scale to conventional systems. Scenarios in Vermont, Michigan, and Virginia were modeled, along with additional sensitivity analyses to understand the importance of key parameters, such as the electricity grid and wastewater treatment method. Both urine diversion technologies had better environmental performance than the conventional system and led to reductions of 29-47% in greenhouse gas emissions, 26-41% in energy consumption, approximately half the freshwater use, and 25-64% in eutrophication potential, while acidification potential ranged between a 24% decrease to a 90% increase. In some situations, wastewater treatment chemical requirements were eliminated. The environmental performance improvement was usually dependent on offsetting the production of synthetic fertilizers. This study suggests that urine diversion could be applied broadly as a strategy for both improving wastewater management and decarbonization.

A comparative carbon footprint analysis of disposable and reusable vaginal specula.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare systems in the United States have increasingly turned toward the use of disposable medical equipment in an attempt to save time, lower costs, and reduce the transmission of infections. However, the use of disposable instruments is associated with increased solid waste production and may have negative impacts on the environment, such as increased greenhouse gas emissions. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to inform this discussion; we applied life cycle assessment methods to evaluate the carbon footprints of 3 vaginal specula: a single-use acrylic model and 2 reusable stainless steel models. STUDY DESIGN: The functional unit of the study was defined as the completion of 20 gynecologic examinations by either type of speculum. The greenhouse gas emissions (eg, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide) across all life cycle stages, which includes material production and manufacturing, transportation, use and reprocessing, and end-of-life, were analyzed with the use of SimaPro life cycle assessment software and converted into carbon dioxide equivalents. RESULTS: The reusable stainless steel grade 304 speculum was found to have a lesser carbon footprint over multiple model scenarios (different reprocessing techniques, autoclave loading/efficiency, and number of uses) than either the reusable stainless steel grade 316 or the disposable acrylic specula. The material production and manufacturing phase contributed most heavily to the total life cycle carbon footprint of the acrylic speculum, whereas the use and reprocessing phase contributed most to the carbon footprints of both stainless steel specula. CONCLUSION: The use of disposable vaginal specula is associated with increased greenhouse gas equivalents compared with reusable alternatives with no significant difference in clinical utility. These findings can be used to inform decision-making by healthcare systems, because they weigh a wide range of considerations in making final purchase decisions; similar analytic methods can and should be applied to other components of health systems' waste streams.

The role of energy storage in deep decarbonization of electricity production.

Deep decarbonization of electricity production is a societal challenge that can be achieved with high penetrations of variable renewable energy. We investigate the potential of energy storage technologies to reduce renewable curtailment and CO2 emissions in California and Texas under varying emissions taxes. We show that without energy storage, adding 60 GW of renewables to California achieves 72% CO2 reductions (relative to a zero-renewables case) with close to one third of renewables being curtailed. Some energy storage technologies, on the other hand, allow 90% CO2 reductions from the same renewable penetrations with as little as 9% renewable curtailment. In Texas, the same renewable-deployment level leads to 54% emissions reductions with close to 3% renewable curtailment. Energy storage can allow 57% emissions reductions with as little as 0.3% renewable curtailment. We also find that generator flexibility can reduce curtailment and the amount of energy storage that is needed for renewable integration.