ANZACS-QI Heart Failure Registry: a new approach using age-stratified sampling of hospital discharges to guide quality improvement (ANZACS-QI 79).

Heart failure is a major healthcare problem in New Zealand. The Acute Decompensated Heart Failure (ADHF) Registry was introduced in 2015, and has identified the need for quality improvement strategies to improve care of patients hospitalised with heart failure. In this paper, we describe the implementation of the revised ANZACS-QI Heart Failure Registry, which has a primary aim to support evidence-based management of and quality improvement measures for patients who are hospitalised with heart failure in New Zealand. Taking the learnings from the initial experience with the ADHF Registry, the revised ANZACS-QI Heart Failure Registry i) utilises age-stratified sampling of hospital discharge coding to identify a representative heart failure cohort, ii) utilises existing ANZACS-QI infrastructure for data-linkage to reduce the burden of manual data entry, iii) receives governance from the Heart Failure Working Group, and iv) focusses on established quality improvement indicators for heart failure management.

Short, Medium and Long-Term Cause-Specific Mortality Following First-Ever Heart Failure Hospitalisation in New Zealand.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) is associated with high mortality, but there are limited reports on the underlying cause of death. This study reports short-, medium- and long-term cause-specific mortality following first-ever HF hospitalisation in New Zealand. METHOD: First-ever HF hospitalisations were identified from hospital discharge coding between 2010 and 2013. Mortality outcomes were obtained via anonymised linkage to national datasets. Short (0-30 days), medium (31-364 days), and long-term (1-5 years) mortality rates were identified. Cause of death was identified from death certification coding and classified as cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular. Cox regression analysis was performed to adjust for confounding variables. RESULTS: A cohort of 34,264 individuals with first-ever HF hospitalisation were identified. Mean age was 75.8±13 years and 50.5% were male. A total of 21,637 (63.1%) died within 5 years of hospitalisation; 4,122 (12.0%) within the first 30 days, 6,358 (18.6%) between 31-364 days, and 11,157 (32.6%) between 1 and 5 years. Older age, male gender, Maori ethnicity, higher socioeconomic deprivation and increased comorbidity were independent factors associated with higher all-cause mortality. Cardiovascular causes accounted for 51% of total deaths. Cardiovascular mortality was 6.0%, 9.5%, and 16.7% at 30 days, 31-364 days, and 1-5 years, respectively. The most common causes of non-cardiovascular mortality were neoplasms, chronic respiratory diseases and infections, accounting for 14.6%, 11.0%, and 5.5% of total deaths respectively. Comorbidity was associated with higher non-cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 3.35; 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.16-3.55) but not cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.79; 95% CI 0.72-0.86). CONCLUSIONS: In New Zealand, mortality following first-ever HF hospitalisation is high. Non-cardiovascular death is common and there are ethnic inequities.

Validation Study of Cardiovascular International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Edition, Australian Modification (ICD-10-AM) Codes in Administrative Healthcare Databases (ANZACS-QI 77).

BACKGROUND: Administrative healthcare databases can be utilised for research. The accuracy of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Edition, Australian Modification (ICD-10-AM) coding of cardiovascular conditions in New Zealand is not known and requires validation. METHOD: International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Edition, Australian Modification coded discharges for acute coronary syndrome (ACS), heart failure (HF) and atrial fibrillation (AF), in both primary and secondary diagnostic positions, were identified from four district health boards between 1 January 2019 and 31 June 2019. A sample was randomly selected for retrospective clinician review for evidence of the coded diagnosis according to contemporary diagnostic criteria. Positive predictive values (PPVs) for ICD-10-AM coding vs clinician review were calculated. This study is also known as All of New Zealand, Acute Coronary Syndrome-Quality Improvement (ANZACS-QI) 77. RESULTS: A total of 600 cases (200 for each diagnosis, 5.0% of total identified cases) were reviewed. The PPV of ACS was 93% (95% confidence interval [CI] 89%-96%), HF was 93% (95% CI 89%-96%) and AF was 96% (95% CI 92%-98%). There were no differences in PPV between district health boards. PPV for ACS were lower in Maori vs non-Maori (72% vs 96%; p=0.004), discharge from non-Cardiology vs Cardiology services (89% vs 96%; p=0.048) and ICD-10-AM coding for unstable angina vs myocardial infarction (81% vs 95%; p=0.011). PPV for HF were higher in the primary vs secondary diagnostic position (100% vs 89%; p=0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The PPVs of ICD-10-AM coding for ACS, HF, and AF were high in this validation study. ICD-10-AM coding can be used to identify these diagnoses in administrative databases for the purposes of healthcare evaluation and research.

Guideline versus clinician recommended duration of dual antiplatelet therapy following acute coronary syndrome (ANZACS-QI 78).

AIM: The recommended duration of dual anti-platelet therapy (DAPT) following acute coronary syndrome (ACS) for patients without atrial fibrillation varies from 1 month to 1 year depending on the balance of risks of ischaemia and major bleeding. Patients on DAPT with a high risk of gastrointestinal bleeding are also recommended to receive a proton pump inhibitor (PPI). Our aim was to audit current practice against the 2020 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guideline recommendations. METHODS: One hundred consecutive ACS patients treated with percutaneous coronary intervention discharged from Middlemore Hospital and without atrial fibrillation in the first quarter of 2023 were studied. ANZACS-QI ischaemic (I) and bleeding (B) risk scores were calculated, with patients categorised in four groups based on ESC recommendations-low I/low B risk, low I/high B, high I/low B and high I/high B. Guideline and clinician recommended duration of DAPT and prescription of PPI were compared. RESULTS: All patients were planned for DAPT at discharge and 91% a PPI. Up to four out of five ACS patients could have been planned for shorter DAPT durations based on the ESC guideline recommendations. Over half of included patients (53%) had a high bleeding risk, yet 85% of these patients received 12 months of DAPT despite ESC recommendations of 1-3 months. CONCLUSIONS: There was a divergence between clinical practice and the recommendations of the 2020 ESC guidelines. We discuss these results in relation to the updated August 2023 ESC guidelines, which have reaffirmed a 12-month duration of DAPT as the default position.

Comparison of electrographic changes, clinical features and outcomes in different variants of Takotsubo syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Dysfunction of the left ventricular (LV) apex (apical variant) is the most common form in Takotsubo syndrome (TS). Several less common non-apical variants have been described - mid-ventricular, basal and focal. We hypothesised that the clinical presentation, and electrocardiographic (ECG) findings may vary between apical and non-apical TS. METHODS: We prospectively identified 194 consecutive patients with TS presenting to Middlemore Hospital, Auckland and obtained clinical, echocardiography, coronary angiography, and long-term follow-up data. ECGs at admission and Day 1 were compared. RESULTS: Of 194 patients with TS, 168 (86.6%) had apical TS, and 26 (13.4%) non-apical TS (11 mid-ventricular TS, 5 basal TS, 10 focal TS). Apical TS patients had more significant LV systolic impairment (p = 0.001) and longer length of stay (p = 0.001). The extent of T-wave inversion (TWI) was similar for both groups on admission (p = 0.88). By Day 1 the extent of TWI was greater in apical TS group (median number of leads 5 vs. 1, p = 0.02). The change in QTc interval between admission and Day 1 was greater in apical TS group (29.7 ms vs. 2.77 ms, p < 0.001). Composite in-hospital complication rate was similar for both groups (13.7% vs. 15.4%, p = 0.77). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with non-apical variants, apical TS patients develop more extensive TWI and greater QT prolongation on ECG, and more significant LV systolic impairment, but in-hospital complications were similar. Clinicians should be aware that there is a sub-group of TS patients who have non-apical regional wall motion abnormalities and who don't develop ECG changes typical of the more common apical variant.

Recurrent Takotsubo Syndrome: How Frequent, and How Does It Present?

BACKGROUND: Recurrent Takotsubo syndrome (TS) is not uncommon but experience with TS recurrence is inherently limited by the infrequency of the condition itself and incomplete long-term follow-up. There is limited published data on the clinical features and outcomes of patients with recurrent TS. We aimed to describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with recurrent TS in a large Auckland cohort. METHOD: The clinical profile, in-hospital, and long-term outcomes were prospectively assessed in consecutive patients with recurrent TS presenting to Auckland's three major hospitals between January 2006 and January 2023. RESULTS: During the study period, 472 TS patients were identified. Of the 467 patients discharged alive after the index event, 45 (9.6%) patients (mean age 62.3±11.0 years), all women, experienced recurrent TS. Median time interval from index event to the first recurrence was 3.14 years (range 27 days to 13.8 years). In 27 (60%) of the 45 patients, the subsequent events involved a stressor (physical triggers, n=8; emotional triggers, n=19). The stressor type differed between the index and recurrent event in 18 (40%) of the 45 patients. Thirteen (28.9%) had a different echocardiographic variant of TS at first recurrence. All patients with recurrent TS were discharged alive. Four patients died late after discharge from the first recurrence, all but one from a non-cardiac cause. CONCLUSIONS: One in 10 patients with TS experience recurrent events. These may occur many years later, and both the stressor type and the echocardiographic variant may be different at the recurrent event.

Cardiogenic Shock Prior to Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction: Outcomes and Predictors of Mortality (ANZACS-QI 73).

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Cardiogenic shock (CS) is a serious complication of acute myocardial infarction (MI) and is associated with significant mortality. We describe a contemporary, real-world cohort of patients with ST-elevation MI (STEMI) and CS, including 30-day mortality and clinically relevant predictors of mortality. METHODS: All patients presenting with STEMI who were treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in New Zealand (2016 to 2020) were identified from the Aotearoa New Zealand All Cardiology Services Quality Improvement (ANZACS-QI) registry and stratified based on their Killip class on arrival to the cardiac catheterisation laboratory. Primary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. Multivariable analysis was used to identify predictors of mortality prior to PCI and to develop a mortality scoring system. RESULTS: In total, 6,649 patients were identified, including 192 (2.9%) Killip IV (CS) patients. Thirty-day mortality was 47.5% in patients with CS, 14.6% in those with heart failure without shock, and 3% in those without heart failure. Independent predictors of 30-day mortality for patients with CS were: estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73m2 (relative risk [RR] 1.89, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.39-2.58), cardiac arrest (RR 1.54, 95% CI 1.15-2.06), diabetes (RR 1.31, 95% CI 1.01-1.70), female sex (RR 1.32, 95% CI 1.01-1.72), femoral arterial access (RR 1.42, 95% CI 1.06-1.90) and left main stem culprit (RR 2.16, 95% CI 1.65-2.84). A multivariable Shock score was developed which predicts 30-day mortality with good global discrimination (area under the curve 0.79, 95% CI 0.73-0.85). CONCLUSION: In this national cohort, the 30-day mortality for STEMI patients presenting with CS treated with PCI remains high, at nearly 50%. The ANZACS-QI Shock score is a promising tool for mortality risk stratification prior to PCI but requires further validation.

Sex differences in outcomes after acute coronary syndrome vary with age: a New Zealand national study.

AIMS: This study investigated age-specific sex differences in short- and long-term clinical outcomes following hospitalization for a first-time acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in New Zealand (NZ). METHODS AND RESULTS: Using linked national health datasets, people admitted to hospital for a first-time ACS between January 2010 and December 2016 were included. Analyses were stratified by sex and 10-year age groups. Logistic and Cox regression were used to assess in-hospital death and from discharge the primary outcome of time to first cardiovascular (CV) readmission or death and other secondary outcomes at 30 days and 2 years. Among 63 245 people (mean age 69 years, 40% women), women were older than men at the time of the ACS admission (mean age 73 vs. 66 years), with a higher comorbidity burden. Overall compared with men, women experienced higher rates of unadjusted in-hospital death (10% vs. 7%), 30-day (16% vs. 12%) and 2-year (44% vs. 34%) death, or CV readmission (all P < 0.001). Age group-specific analyses showed sex differences in outcomes varied with age, with younger women (<65 years) at higher risk than men and older women (≥85 years) at lower risk than men: unadjusted hazard ratio of 2-year death or CV readmission for women aged 18-44 years = 1.51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.21-1.84] and aged ≥85 years = 0.88 (95% CI 0.83-0.93). The increased risk for younger women was no longer significant after multivariable adjustment whereas the increased risk for older men remained. CONCLUSION: Men and women admitted with first-time ACS have differing age and comorbidity profiles, resulting in contrasting age-specific sex differences in the risk of adverse outcomes between the youngest and oldest age groups.

Paired risk scores to predict ischaemic and bleeding risk twenty-eight days to one year after an acute coronary syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: The recommended duration of dual anti-platelet therapy (DAPT) following acute coronary syndrome (ACS) varies from 1 month to 1 year depending on the balance of risks of ischaemia and major bleeding. We designed paired ischaemic and major bleeding risk scores to inform this decision. METHODS: New Zealand (NZ) patients with ACS investigated with coronary angiography are recorded in the All NZ ACS Quality Improvement registry and linked to national health datasets. Patients were aged 18-84 years (2012-2020), event free at 28 days postdischarge and without atrial fibrillation. Two 28-day to 1-year postdischarge multivariable risk prediction scores were developed: (1) cardiovascular mortality/rehospitalisation with myocardial infarction or ischaemic stroke (ischaemic score) and (2) bleeding mortality/rehospitalisation with bleeding (bleeding score). FINDINGS: In 27 755 patients, there were 1200 (4.3%) ischaemic and 548 (2.0%) major bleeding events. Both scores were well calibrated with moderate discrimination performance (Harrell's c-statistic 0.75 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.77) and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.67 to 0 .71), respectively). Applying these scores to the 2020 European Society of Cardiology ACS antithrombotic treatment algorithm, the 31% of the cohort at elevated (>2%) bleeding and ischaemic risk would be considered for an abbreviated DAPT duration. For those at low bleeding risk, but elevated ischaemic risk (37% of the cohort), prolonged DAPT may be appropriate, and for those with low bleeding and ischaemic risk (29% of the cohort) short duration DAPT may be justified. CONCLUSION: We present a pair of ischaemic and bleeding risk scores specifically to assist clinicians and their patients in deciding on DAPT duration beyond the first month post-ACS.

Invasive Management and Outcomes in Acute Coronary Syndromes and Chronic Kidney Disease (ANZACS-QI 70).

AIMS: Guidelines recommend management with an invasive coronary angiogram in acute coronary syndromes (ACS), but most studies excluded patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). Our aims were to describe, in a comprehensive ACS cohort, the incidence of CKD, coronary angiography utilisation and outcomes, according to CKD stage. METHODS: National datasets were used to identify hospitalised ACS patients (2013 to 2018) in the Northern region of New Zealand. CKD stage was obtained from a linked laboratory dataset. Outcomes included all-cause and cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal myocardial infarction, heart failure and stroke. RESULTS: Thirty-eight percent (38%) of the 23,432 ACS patients had CKD stage 3 or higher: 2,403 (10%) had stages 4/5 CKD. Overall 61% received coronary angiography. Compared with normal renal function the adjusted rate of coronary angiography was lower in CKD stage 3b (RR 0.75, 95% confidence intervals [CIs] 0.69, 0.82) and stages 4/5 without dialysis (RR 0.41, 95% CIs 0.36, 0.46), but similar for those on dialysis (RR 0.89, 95% CIs 0.77, 1.02). All-cause mortality (mean follow-up 3.2 years) increased with CKD stage from 8% (normal kidney function) to 69% (stages 4/5 CKD without dialysis). Compared with coronary angiography, the adjusted all-cause and CVD mortality risks were higher in those without coronary angiography, except for those on dialysis, where these risks converged. CONCLUSIONS: Invasive management fell below an eGFR of 45 mL/min (≤ stage 3b), and nearly half of all deaths occurred in these patients. Clinical trials are needed to assess the role of invasive management in ACS and advanced CKD.

External Validation of a Clinical Score to Differentiate Takotsubo Syndrome From Non-ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction in Women.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Clinical presentation of Takotsubo Syndrome (TS) mimics acute coronary syndrome (ACS). A score to differentiate TS from ACS would be helpful to facilitate appropriate investigation and management. We have previously developed a clinical score (NSTE-Takotsubo Score) to distinguish women with non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) from TS with non-ST-segment elevation (NSTE-TS). This study sought to assess the diagnostic validity of this score in an external validation cohort. METHODS: The external cohort consisted of women with NSTE-TS (n=110) and NSTEMI (n=113) from two major tertiary hospitals in New Zealand. The five variables in the arithmetic score (range -6 to +5) and their relative weights are: T-wave inversion (TWI) in ≥6 leads (3 points), recent stress (2 points), diabetes mellitus (DM) (-1 point), prior cardiovascular disease (CVD) (-2 points) and presence of ST depression (-3 points). Two clinicians blinded to the diagnoses calculated the score using clinical and electrocardiogram (ECG) data on day 1 post-admission. RESULTS: The NSTE-Takotsubo Score discriminated well between NSTE-TS and NSTEMI. The sensitivity and specificity of a score ≥1 to distinguish NSTE-TS from NSTEMI were 78% and 85%, respectively. The area under the receiver operator curve was 0.78 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.84). CONCLUSION: In an external validation cohort, the NSTE-Takotsubo Score was easy to apply and useful to identify women likely to have NSTE-TS on day 1 post-admission.

A Risk Model to Predict Statin Non-Adherence Following an Acute Coronary Syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Patients at risk of statin non-adherence are often not identified during hospital admission with an acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHODS: In 19,942 patients hospitalised for ACS, statin dispensing was determined from the national pharmaceutical dispensing database. A risk score for non-adherence was developed from a multivariable Poisson regression model of associations between risk factors and the statin Medication Possession Ratio (MPR) <0.8 6-18 months after hospital discharge. RESULTS: Statin MPR was <0.8 in 4,736 (24%) patients. MPR <0.8 was more likely in patients with a history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) (RR 3.79, CI 95% 3.42-4.20) and those without known CVD (RR 2.25, 95% CI 2.04-2.48) who were not taking a statin on ACS admission, compared to patients with low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol <2 mmol/L who were on a statin. For patients taking a statin on admission, higher LDL was associated with MPR <0.8 (≥3 versus <2 mmol/L, RR 1.96, 95%CI 1.72-2.24). Other independent risk factors for MPR <0.8 were age <45 years, female, disadvantaged ethnic groups, and no coronary revascularisation during the ACS admission. The risk score, which included nine variables, had a C-statistic of 0.67. MPR was <0.8 in 12% of 5,348 patients with a score ≤5 (lowest quartile) and 45% of 5,858 patients with a score ≥11 (highest quartile). CONCLUSION: A risk score generated from routinely collected data predicts statin non-adherence in patients hospitalised with ACS. This may be used to target inpatient and outpatient interventions to improve medication adherence.

What is the Statin Possession Ratio Cut-Off Which Identifies Those at Increased Risk Following Acute Coronary Syndrome (ANZACS-QI 68)?

AIMS: More optimal dispensing of statins is associated with greater cholesterol lowering; however, it is not known whether this translates to improved outcomes following acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The aim of this study was to assess the association between various levels of statin adherence and outcomes following ACS. METHODS: Patients hospitalised with ACS who underwent coronary angiography between 2014-2018 were identified from the All New Zealand ACS Quality Improvement (ANZACS-QI) registry. Medication possession ratio (MPR) was used to assess statin adherence and calculated over 1 year post-discharge using linked pharmaceutical dispensing datasets. Optimal, adequate and suboptimal adherence was defined as an MPR of ≥1.0, 0.8-0.99 and 0-0.79, respectively. A combined outcome of all-cause mortality and rehospitalisation for atherosclerotic disease was identified from 1 year post-discharge through September 2021. Cox proportional hazard models were used to adjust for confounding variables. RESULTS: Of the 30,452 patients, 68% had optimal adherence, 15% adequate adherence and 16% had suboptimal adherence to statins. Mean follow-up was 3.6 years. Those with suboptimal adherence had a higher adjusted risk of the combined outcome compared with those with optimal adherence (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.11-1.26). There was no significant difference in adjusted outcome between those with optimal and adequate adherence (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.92-1.06). CONCLUSIONS: Suboptimal statin adherence following ACS is associated with an increased risk of mortality and rehospitalisation. An MPR cut-off of 0.8 seems reasonable to identify those at higher risk of cardiovascular events that could benefit the most from interventions to improve statin adherence and is appropriate as a target for quality improvement programs.

Guideline-Directed Medical Therapy Before and After Primary Prevention Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator Implantation in New Zealand (ANZACS-QI 66).

INTRODUCTION: Guidelines recommend angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi)/angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB)/angiotensin receptor neprilysin inhibitors (ARNI); beta blockers; and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRA) in patients with symptomatic heart failure and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction before consideration of primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). This study aims to investigate dispensing rates of guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) before and after primary prevention ICD implantation in New Zealand. METHODS: All patients receiving a primary prevention ICD between 2009 and 2018 were identified using nationally collected data on all public hospital admissions in New Zealand. This was anonymously linked to national pharmaceutical data to obtain medication dispensing. Medications were categorised as low dose (<50% of target dose), 50-99% of target dose or target dose based on international guidelines. RESULTS: Of the 1,698 patients identified, ACEi/ARB/ARNI, beta blockers and MRA were dispensed in 80.2%, 83.6% and 45.4%, respectively, prior to ICD implant. However, ≥50% target doses of each medication class were dispensed in only 51.8%, 51.8% and 34.5%, respectively. Only 15.8% of patients were receiving ≥50% target doses of all three classes of medications. In the 1,666 patients who survived 1 year after ICD implant, the proportions of patients dispensed each class of medications remained largely unchanged. CONCLUSION: Dispensing of GDMT was suboptimal in patients before and after primary prevention ICD implantation in New Zealand, and only a minority received ≥50% target doses of all classes of medication. Interventions are needed to optimise use of these standard evidence-based medications to improve clinical outcomes and avoid unnecessary device implantation.

Takotsubo syndrome in New Zealand: current knowledge and future challenges.

Takotsubo syndrome (TS), also known as apical ballooning syndrome, is a transient stress-related cardiomyopathy characterised by acute but reversible left ventricular dysfunction. The condition tends to occur in postmenopausal women after a stressful event. At presentation, TS typically mimics acute myocardial infarction (MI) and the incidence of TS has been increasing worldwide. This is likely a consequence of an improved awareness of the existence of this syndrome and easier access to early echocardiography and coronary angiography. However, its aetiology remains poorly understood and it is probably still underdiagnosed. Similar to other countries, TS is being increasingly recognised in New Zealand. In this review, we discuss the demographics, clinical features and outcomes of patients with TS in New Zealand. Doing so informs us not only of the pattern of disease in New Zealand but it also provides insights into the condition itself.

Both incidence and prevalence of ischaemic heart disease are declining in parallel: a national data-linkage study in New Zealand (ANZACS-QI 52).

AIMS: To examine trends in ischaemic heart disease (IHD) incidence and prevalence in New Zealand from 2005 to 2016, using comprehensive linked national hospitalization and mortality data as proxy measures of all significant events. METHODS AND RESULTS: Incident and prevalent cases of IHD in people aged ≥25 years were identified using individual patient-linkage of routinely collected ICD-10-coded hospitalization and mortality data. Incidence rates and prevalence proportions were calculated by sex and age group and then age-standardized to the 2016 New Zealand population. Ischaemic heart disease incidence and prevalence declined in men and women in all age groups. The average annual rate of decline in age-standardized IHD incidence was 3.3% for women and 2.7% for men, and the rate of decline in age-standardized IHD prevalence was 3.2% for women and 2.2% for men. Despite a 17% increase in the New Zealand population aged 25 years and over during the study period, the total number of people living with IHD also decreased, particularly in those aged 65 years and older. CONCLUSION: In contrast to observations from other countries, where IHD incidence but not IHD prevalence has been falling, declining IHD incidence in New Zealand in recent decades is now mirrored by declining IHD prevalence.

Predicting cardiovascular disease risk across the atherosclerotic disease continuum.

AIMS: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) guidelines dichotomize populations into primary and secondary prevention. We sought to develop a risk equation for secondary prevention of CVD that complements existing equations for primary prevention of CVD, and to describe the distributions of CVD risk across the population. METHODS AND RESULTS: Adults aged 30-79 years who had routine CVD risk assessment in 2007-16 were identified from a large primary care cohort (PREDICT) with linkage to national and regional datasets. The 5-year risk of developing CVD among people without atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) was calculated using published equations (PREDICT-1°). A new risk equation (PREDICT-2°) was developed from Cox regression models to estimate the 5-year risk of CVD event recurrence among patients with known ASCVD. The outcome for both equations was hospitalization for a CVD event or cardiovascular death. Of the 475 161 patients, 12% (57 061) had ASCVD. For those without ASCVD, median (interquartile range) 5-year risks with the PREDICT-1° score were women 2.2% (1.2-4.2%), men 3.5% (2.0-6.6%), and whole group 2.9% (1.6-5.5%). For those with ASCVD, the 5-year risks with the new PREDICT-2° equation were women 21% (15-33%), men 23% (16-35%), and whole group 22% (16-34%). CONCLUSION: We developed CVD risk scores for people with ASCVD (PREDICT-2°) to complement the PREDICT-1° scores. Median CVD risk is eight-fold higher among those with ASCVD than those without; however, there was overlap and the widest distribution of CVD risk was among people with ASCVD. This study describes a CVD risk continuum and the limitations of a 'one size fits all' approach to assessing risk in people with ASCVD.

Type of Stressor and Medium-Term Outcomes After Takotsubo Syndrome: What Becomes of the Broken Hearted? (ANZACS-QI 59).

BACKGROUND: Takotsubo syndrome (TS) is often triggered by an acute physical or emotional stressor. We hypothesised that medium-term prognosis may be better for TS patients with an associated emotional stressor than for those with an acute physical illness. METHODS: We identified consecutive TS patients presenting in New Zealand (2006-2018). The clinical presentation and outcomes of TS patients according to types of stressor (physical, emotional or no stressor) were assessed. Post-discharge survival after TS was compared with age- and gender-matched patients after myocardial infarction (MI) and people in the community without known cardiovascular disease (CVD). RESULTS: Of 632 TS patients (95.9% women, mean age 65.0±11.1 years), 27.4% had an associated acute physical stressor, 46.4% an emotional stressor and 26.2% no evident stressor. In-hospital mortality was similar for each group (1.7%, 1.2%, 0.3% respectively, p=0.29). In a median 4.4 years post-discharge there were 54 deaths (53 non-cardiac). Compared with patients without known CVD, TS patients with physical stress and those with MI were less likely to survive (HR 4.46, 95%CI 3.10-6.42; HR 4.23, 95%CI 3.81-4.70 respectively) but survival for TS patients associated with emotional stress or no stressor was similar (HR 1.11, 95%CI 0.66-1.85; HR 1.08, 95%CI 0.54-2.18, respectively). Recurrence was similar among the three groups (p=0.14). CONCLUSION: Takotsubo syndrome associated with physical stressor has a post-discharge mortality risk as high as after MI. In contrast, prognosis for TS triggered by an emotional stressor is excellent, and similar to that of those without known CVD.