Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change.

Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services and impacts on biodiversity.

Rapid global ocean-atmosphere response to Southern Ocean freshening during the last glacial.

Contrasting Greenland and Antarctic temperatures during the last glacial period (115,000 to 11,650 years ago) are thought to have been driven by imbalances in the rates of formation of North Atlantic and Antarctic Deep Water (the 'bipolar seesaw'). Here we exploit a bidecadally resolved 14C data set obtained from New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) to undertake high-precision alignment of key climate data sets spanning iceberg-rafted debris event Heinrich 3 and Greenland Interstadial (GI) 5.1 in the North Atlantic (~30,400 to 28,400 years ago). We observe no divergence between the kauri and Atlantic marine sediment 14C data sets, implying limited changes in deep water formation. However, a Southern Ocean (Atlantic-sector) iceberg rafted debris event appears to have occurred synchronously with GI-5.1 warming and decreased precipitation over the western equatorial Pacific and Atlantic. An ensemble of transient meltwater simulations shows that Antarctic-sourced salinity anomalies can generate climate changes that are propagated globally via an atmospheric Rossby wave train.A challenge for testing mechanisms of past climate change is the precise correlation of palaeoclimate records. Here, through climate modelling and the alignment of terrestrial, ice and marine 14C and 10Be records, the authors show that Southern Ocean freshwater hosing can trigger global change.

Humans rather than climate the primary cause of Pleistocene megafaunal extinction in Australia.

Environmental histories that span the last full glacial cycle and are representative of regional change in Australia are scarce, hampering assessment of environmental change preceding and concurrent with human dispersal on the continent ca. 47,000 years ago. Here we present a continuous 150,000-year record offshore south-western Australia and identify the timing of two critical late Pleistocene events: wide-scale ecosystem change and regional megafaunal population collapse. We establish that substantial changes in vegetation and fire regime occurred ∼70,000 years ago under a climate much drier than today. We record high levels of the dung fungus Sporormiella, a proxy for herbivore biomass, from 150,000 to 45,000 years ago, then a marked decline indicating megafaunal population collapse, from 45,000 to 43,100 years ago, placing the extinctions within 4,000 years of human dispersal across Australia. These findings rule out climate change, and implicate humans, as the primary extinction cause.

The aftermath of megafaunal extinction: ecosystem transformation in Pleistocene Australia.

Giant vertebrates dominated many Pleistocene ecosystems. Many were herbivores, and their sudden extinction in prehistory could have had large ecological impacts. We used a high-resolution 130,000-year environmental record to help resolve the cause and reconstruct the ecological consequences of extinction of Australia's megafauna. Our results suggest that human arrival rather than climate caused megafaunal extinction, which then triggered replacement of mixed rainforest by sclerophyll vegetation through a combination of direct effects on vegetation of relaxed herbivore pressure and increased fire in the landscape. This ecosystem shift was as large as any effect of climate change over the last glacial cycle, and indicates the magnitude of changes that may have followed megafaunal extinction elsewhere in the world.

Millennial and orbital variations of El Niño/Southern Oscillation and high-latitude climate in the last glacial period.

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is believed to have operated continuously over the last glacial-interglacial cycle. ENSO variability has been suggested to be linked to millennial-scale oscillations in North Atlantic climate during that time, but the proposals disagree on whether increased frequency of El Niño events, the warm phase of ENSO, was linked to North Atlantic warm or cold periods. Here we present a high-resolution record of surface moisture, based on the degree of peat humification and the ratio of sedges to grass, from northern Queensland, Australia, covering the past 45,000 yr. We observe millennial-scale dry periods, indicating periods of frequent El Niño events (summer precipitation declines in El Niño years in northeastern Australia). We find that these dry periods are correlated to the Dansgaard-Oeschger events--millennial-scale warm events in the North Atlantic climate record--although no direct atmospheric connection from the North Atlantic to our site can be invoked. Additionally, we find climatic cycles at a semiprecessional timescale (approximately 11,900 yr). We suggest that climate variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean on millennial as well as orbital timescales, which determined precipitation in northeastern Australia, also exerted an influence on North Atlantic climate through atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections.

Assessing long-term pH change in an Australian river catchment using monitoring and palaeolimnological data.

Reviews of stream monitoring data suggest that there has been significant acidification (>1.0 pH unit at some sites) of Victorian streamwaters over the past 3 decades. To assess whether these declines are within the range of natural variability, we developed a diatom model for inferring past pH and applied it to a ca. 3500-yr diatom record from a flood plain lake, Callemondah 1 Billabong, on the Goulburn River, which has among the most substantial observed pH declines. The model has a jackkniffed r2 between diatom inferred and measured pH of 0.77 and a root mean square error of prediction of 0.35 pH units. In the pre-European period, pH was stable (range 6.5-6.7) for approximately 3000 yr. Since European settlement around 160 yr ago, diatom-inferred billabong pH has increased significantly by >0.5 units. We hypothesize that this increase in pH is related to processes associated with land clearance (e.g., increased base cation load and decreased organic acid load). There is no evidence of the recent monitored declines in the Callemondah record, which may indicate that that flood plain lakes and the main stream are experiencing divergent pH trends or that the temporal resolution in the billabong sediment record is insufficient to register recent declines.