Lessons learnt of the COVID-19 contact tracing strategy in Islamabad Capital Territory, Pakistan using systems thinking processes.

The strategy of test, trace and isolate has been promoted and seen as a crucial tool in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. As simple as the slogan sounds, effectively implementing it turns into a complex endeavor with multiple moving parts and the need for multisector collaboration. In this study, we apply a systems thinking lens to analyse the design and implementation of the contact tracing strategy for COVID-19 in the district of Islamabad, Pakistan. The data collection included participatory observation, reflective exercises, key informant interviews and participatory workshops with district health managers and health providers. The information gathered was structured using process and stakeholder mapping to identify the lessons learned of the COVID-19 contact tracing strategy. The results showed that the elements crucial for implementation were, good coordination during a crisis, available resources mobilized effectively and establishment of early active surveillance for contact tracing. Furthermore, the main aspects to be improved were lack of preparedness and existing surveillance systems and task shifting leading to impact on regular health services. The results of this study highlight the importance of developing information systems that are coherent with existing processes and resources, even in times of crisis.

Risk Factors Associated with a Dengue Fever Outbreak in Islamabad, Pakistan: Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: On October 23, 2016, 79 dengue fever cases were reported from the Union Council Tarlai to Federal Disease Surveillance and Response Unit Islamabad. A team was established to investigate the suspected dengue outbreak. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the extent of the outbreak and identify the possible risk factors. METHODS: Active case finding was performed through a house-to-house survey. A case was defined as an acute onset of fever ≥38℃ in a resident of Tarlai from October 2 to November 11, 2016, with a positive dengue virus (nonstructural protein, NS-1) test and any of the two of following signs and symptoms: retroorbital/ocular pain, headache, rash, myalgia, arthralgia, and hemorrhagic manifestations. A structured questionnaire was used to collect data. Age- and sex-matched controls (1:1) were identified from residents in the same area as cases. Blood samples were taken and sent to the National Institute of Health for genotype identification. RESULTS: During the active case search, 145 cases of dengue fever were identified by surveying 928 houses from October 23 to November 11, 2016. The attack rate (AR) was 17.0/10,000. The mean age was 34.4 (SD 14.4) years. More than half of the cases were male (80/145, 55.2%). Among all cases, 29% belonged to the 25-34 years age group and the highest AR was found in the 35-44 years age group (35.6/10,000), followed by the 55-64 years age group (35.5/10,000). All five blood samples tested positive for NS-1 (genotype DENV-2). The most frequent presenting signs/symptoms were fever and headache (both 100%). Stagnant water around houses (odds ratio [OR] 4.86, 95% CI 2.94-8.01; P<.001), presence of flower pots in the home (OR 2.73, 95% CI 1.67-4.45; P<.001), and open water containers (OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.36-3.60; P<.001) showed higher odds among cases. Conversely, use of bed nets (OR 0.44, 95% CI 0.25-0.77; P=.003), insecticidal spray (OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.22-0.55; P<.001), door screens (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.15-0.46; P<.001), mosquito coil/mat (OR 0.26, 95% CI 0.16-0.44; P<.001), and cleanliness of the house (OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.05-0.26; P<.001) showed significant protective effects. CONCLUSIONS: Stagnant water acting as breeding grounds for vectors was identified as the probable cause of spread of the dengue outbreak. Establishment of surveillance and an early reporting system along with use of protective measures against the vector are strongly recommended.