Utility of self-reported diagnosis and electrocardiogram Q-waves for estimating myocardial infarction prevalence: an international comparison study.

OBJECTIVE: Self-report of physician diagnosis and ECG 'Q' waves are common survey measures of prior myocardial infarction (MI) prevalence. We sought to assess relative prevalence of self-reported prior MI and ECG Q-waves (ECG-MI) in populations and population subgroups with varying MI prevalence. DESIGN: A secondary analysis of seven population-based cross-sectional surveys of prevalent MI selected from a systematic review of ischaemic heart disease epidemiology. SETTING: Men and women aged 45-74 years in population-based Belgian surveys (1978--1998, n=29 419) and US National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (1976-1994, n=11 107). Comparison of the US and Belgian surveys with surveys in seven other nations (United Kingdom, Russia, Lithuania, Belarus, India, Turkey and Ghana). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of prior MI measured by self-report or resting ECG Q-waves (ECG-MI; Minnesota ECG codes 1.1 and 1.2). RESULTS: Self-reported prior MI prevalence was 1.5-2.6 times higher than ECG-MI in Belgian and US men aged 45-74 years and women 55-74 years. ECG-MI was more prevalent than self-reported MI in women <55 years old, and self-reported MI relatively low in US African-American men compared with US Caucasian men. In the overall nine-nation comparison, there was no consistent relationship between self-reported MI and ECG-MI. ECG-MI was higher relative to self-report in nations with lower prevalence of ischaemic heart disease. CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported MI and ECG-MI prevalence may only be reliable in higher ischaemic heart disease incidence groups. Self-report and ECG-MI have limited accuracy, and ECG Q-waves likely capture fewer prior MIs in the 21st century. The limitations of current survey prevalence measures of MI should be taken into account when measuring the burden of ischaemic heart disease in populations.

Assessing the Global Burden of Ischemic Heart Disease: Part 1: Methods for a Systematic Review of the Global Epidemiology of Ischemic Heart Disease in 1990 and 2010.

BACKGROUND: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is the leading cause of death worldwide. The GBD (Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors) study (GBD 2010 Study) conducted a systematic review of IHD epidemiology literature from 1980 to 2008 to inform estimates of the burden on IHD in 21 world regions in 1990 and 2010. METHODS: The disease model of IHD for the GBD 2010 Study included IHD death and 3 sequelae: myocardial infarction, heart failure, and angina pectoris. Medline, EMBASE, and LILACS were searched for IHD epidemiology studies in GBD high-income and low- and middle-income regions published between 1980 and 2008 using a systematic protocol validated by regional IHD experts. Data from included studies were supplemented with unpublished data from selected high-quality surveillance and survey studies. The epidemiologic parameters of interest were incidence, prevalence, case fatality, and mortality. RESULTS: Literature searches yielded 40,205 unique papers, of which 1,801 met initial screening criteria. Upon detailed review of full text papers, 137 published studies were included. Unpublished data were obtained from 24 additional studies. Data were sufficient for high-income regions, but missing or sparse in many low- and middle-income regions, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa. CONCLUSIONS: A systematic review for the GBD 2010 Study provided IHD epidemiology estimates for most world regions, but highlighted the lack of information about IHD in Sub-Saharan Africa and other low-income regions. More complete knowledge of the global burden of IHD will require improved IHD surveillance programs in all world regions.