Salinity, mineralogy, porosity, and hydrodynamics as drivers of carbon burial in urban mangroves from a megacity.

Mangrove ecosystems are an important blue carbon store but exhibit considerable variation in soil carbon stocks globally. Unravelling the conditions controlling carbon stock is critical for assessing current and future carbon budgets. Mangrove soil biogeochemical cycles can strongly influence carbon storage capacities. We thus investigated carbon sequestration and the environmental parameters shaping variability in biogeochemical cycling and carbon storage in sediment samples from four mangrove sites along an estuarine-to-marine gradient in Hong Kong, a megacity. Our results showed that organic matter in Hong Kong mangroves is sourced principally from autochthonous mangrove plants. Total nitrogen was higher in the freshwater-influenced sites and supplied from different sources. Marine-influenced sites had larger sulfur fractionations, reflecting higher marine-sourced sulfate concentrations and indicating a relatively open sulfate system. We estimated an average organic carbon stock of 115 ± 8 Mg C ha-1 in the upper 100 cm soil layer placing Hong Kong mangroves at the lower end of the global spectrum of the soil carbon stock. Carbon accumulation was found to be driven by a combination of higher total organic matter inputs, soil fluxes, and porosity. Notably, despite having the highest mass-specific soil organic carbon contents, Mai Po had the lowest integrated soil organic carbon storage (77 ± 3 Mg C ha-1). This was primarily due to lower sediment density and higher tidal pumping leading to a decrease in carbon retention. Total organic matter input, sediment characteristics, and hydrodynamics were the main factors influencing soil organic carbon storage. Overall, our results suggest that (1) while multiple parameters can enhance soil organic carbon content and increase carbon storage capacities, (2) hydrodynamics and sediment characteristics can increase the potential for leakage of carbon, and (3) high carbon content does not always equal high carbon sequestration and stock.

Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C.

Several coastal ecosystems-most notably mangroves and tidal marshes-exhibit biogenic feedbacks that are facilitating adjustment to relative sea-level rise (RSLR), including the sequestration of carbon and the trapping of mineral sediment1. The stability of reef-top habitats under RSLR is similarly linked to reef-derived sediment accumulation and the vertical accretion of protective coral reefs2. The persistence of these ecosystems under high rates of RSLR is contested3. Here we show that the probability of vertical adjustment to RSLR inferred from palaeo-stratigraphic observations aligns with contemporary in situ survey measurements. A deficit between tidal marsh and mangrove adjustment and RSLR is likely at 4 mm yr-1 and highly likely at 7 mm yr-1 of RSLR. As rates of RSLR exceed 7 mm yr-1, the probability that reef islands destabilize through increased shoreline erosion and wave over-topping increases. Increased global warming from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C would double the area of mapped tidal marsh exposed to 4 mm yr-1 of RSLR by between 2080 and 2100. With 3 °C of warming, nearly all the world's mangrove forests and coral reef islands and almost 40% of mapped tidal marshes are estimated to be exposed to RSLR of at least 7 mm yr-1. Meeting the Paris agreement targets would minimize disruption to coastal ecosystems.

Common Era sea-level budgets along the U.S. Atlantic coast.

Sea-level budgets account for the contributions of processes driving sea-level change, but are predominantly focused on global-mean sea level and limited to the 20th and 21st centuries. Here we estimate site-specific sea-level budgets along the U.S. Atlantic coast during the Common Era (0-2000 CE) by separating relative sea-level (RSL) records into process-related signals on different spatial scales. Regional-scale, temporally linear processes driven by glacial isostatic adjustment dominate RSL change and exhibit a spatial gradient, with fastest rates of rise in southern New Jersey (1.6 ± 0.02 mm yr-1). Regional and local, temporally non-linear processes, such as ocean/atmosphere dynamics and groundwater withdrawal, contributed between -0.3 and 0.4 mm yr-1 over centennial timescales. The most significant change in the budgets is the increasing influence of the common global signal due to ice melt and thermal expansion since 1800 CE, which became a dominant contributor to RSL with a 20th century rate of 1.3 ± 0.1 mm yr-1.

Nonlinear landscape and cultural response to sea-level rise.

Rising sea levels have been associated with human migration and behavioral shifts throughout prehistory, often with an emphasis on landscape submergence and consequent societal collapse. However, the assumption that future sea-level rise will drive similar adaptive responses is overly simplistic. While the change from land to sea represents a dramatic and permanent shift for preexisting human populations, the process of change is driven by a complex set of physical and cultural processes with long transitional phases of landscape and socioeconomic change. Here, we use reconstructions of prehistoric sea-level rise, paleogeographies, terrestrial landscape change, and human population dynamics to show how the gradual inundation of an island archipelago resulted in decidedly nonlinear landscape and cultural responses to rising sea levels. Interpretation of past and future responses to sea-level change requires a better understanding of local physical and societal contexts to assess plausible human response patterns in the future.