Predicting vaccine effectiveness for mpox.

The Modified Vaccinia Ankara vaccine developed by Bavarian Nordic (MVA-BN) was widely deployed to prevent mpox during the 2022 global outbreak. This vaccine was initially approved for mpox based on its reported immunogenicity (from phase I/II trials) and effectiveness in animal models, rather than evidence of clinical efficacy. However, no validated correlate of protection after vaccination has been identified. Here we performed a systematic search and meta-analysis of the available data to test whether vaccinia-binding ELISA endpoint titer is predictive of vaccine effectiveness against mpox. We observe a significant correlation between vaccine effectiveness and vaccinia-binding antibody titers, consistent with the existing assumption that antibody levels may be a correlate of protection. Combining this data with analysis of antibody kinetics after vaccination, we predict the durability of protection after vaccination and the impact of dose spacing. We find that delaying the second dose of MVA-BN vaccination will provide more durable protection and may be optimal in an outbreak with limited vaccine stock. Although further work is required to validate this correlate, this study provides a quantitative evidence-based approach for using antibody measurements to predict the effectiveness of mpox vaccination.

Viral clearance as a surrogate of clinical efficacy for COVID-19 therapies in outpatients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Surrogates of antiviral efficacy are needed for COVID-19. We aimed to investigate the relationship between the virological effect of treatment and clinical efficacy as measured by progression to severe disease in outpatients treated for mild-to-moderate COVID-19. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Scopus, and medRxiv from database inception to Aug 16, 2023, for randomised placebo-controlled trials that tested virus-directed treatments (ie, any monoclonal antibodies, convalescent plasma, or antivirals) in non-hospitalised individuals with COVID-19. We only included studies that reported both clinical outcomes (ie, rate of disease progression to hospitalisation or death) and virological outcomes (ie, viral load within the first 7 days of treatment). We extracted summary data from eligible reports, with discrepancies resolved through discussion. We used an established meta-regression model with random effects to assess the association between clinical efficacy and virological treatment effect, and calculated I2 to quantify residual study heterogeneity. FINDINGS: We identified 1718 unique studies, of which 22 (with a total of 16 684 participants) met the inclusion criteria, and were in primarily unvaccinated individuals. Risk of bias was assessed as low in 19 of 22 studies for clinical outcomes, whereas for virological outcomes, a high risk of bias was assessed in 11 studies, some risk in ten studies, and a low risk in one study. The unadjusted relative risk of disease progression for each extra log10 copies per mL reduction in viral load in treated compared with placebo groups was 0·12 (95% CI 0·04-0·34; p<0·0001) on day 3, 0·20 (0·08-0·50; p=0·0006) on day 5, and 0·53 (0·30-0·94; p=0·030) on day 7. The residual heterogeneity in our meta-regression was estimated as low (I2=0% [0-53] on day 3, 0% [0-71] on day 5, and 0% [0-43] on day 7). INTERPRETATION: Despite the aggregation of studies with differing designs, and evidence of risk of bias in some virological outcomes, this review provides evidence that treatment-induced acceleration of viral clearance within the first 5 days after treatment is a potential surrogate of clinical efficacy to prevent hospitalisation with COVID-19. This work supports the use of viral clearance as an early phase clinical trial endpoint of therapeutic efficacy. FUNDING: Australian Government Department of Health, Medical Research Future Fund, and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Long-term vaccination strategies to mitigate the impact of SARS-CoV-2 transmission: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Vaccines have reduced severe disease and death from Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, with evidence of waning efficacy coupled with continued evolution of the virus, health programmes need to evaluate the requirement for regular booster doses, considering their impact and cost-effectiveness in the face of ongoing transmission and substantial infection-induced immunity. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed a combined immunological-transmission model parameterised with data on transmissibility, severity, and vaccine effectiveness. We simulated Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and vaccine rollout in characteristic global settings with different population age-structures, contact patterns, health system capacities, prior transmission, and vaccine uptake. We quantified the impact of future vaccine booster dose strategies with both ancestral and variant-adapted vaccine products, while considering the potential future emergence of new variants with modified transmission, immune escape, and severity properties. We found that regular boosting of the oldest age group (75+) is an efficient strategy, although large numbers of hospitalisations and deaths could be averted by extending vaccination to younger age groups. In countries with low vaccine coverage and high infection-derived immunity, boosting older at-risk groups was more effective than continuing primary vaccination into younger ages in our model. Our study is limited by uncertainty in key parameters, including the long-term durability of vaccine and infection-induced immunity as well as uncertainty in the future evolution of the virus. CONCLUSIONS: Our modelling suggests that regular boosting of the high-risk population remains an important tool to reduce morbidity and mortality from current and future SARS-CoV-2 variants. Our results suggest that focusing vaccination in the highest-risk cohorts will be the most efficient (and hence cost-effective) strategy to reduce morbidity and mortality.

Determinants of passive antibody efficacy in SARS-CoV-2 infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Randomised controlled trials of passive antibodies as treatment and prophylaxis for COVID-19 have reported variable efficacy. However, the determinants of efficacy have not been identified. We aimed to assess how the dose and timing of administration affect treatment outcome. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we extracted data from published studies of passive antibody treatment from Jan 1, 2019, to Jan 31, 2023, that were identified by searching multiple databases, including MEDLINE, PubMed, and ClinicalTrials.gov. We included only randomised controlled trials of passive antibody administration for the prevention or treatment of COVID-19. To compare administered antibody dose between different treatments, we used data on in-vitro neutralisation titres to normalise dose by antibody potency. We used mixed-effects regression and model fitting to analyse the relationship between timing, dose and efficacy. FINDINGS: We found 58 randomised controlled trials that investigated passive antibody therapies for the treatment or prevention of COVID-19. Earlier clinical stage at treatment initiation was highly predictive of the efficacy of both monoclonal antibodies (p<0·0001) and convalescent plasma therapy (p=0·030) in preventing progression to subsequent stages, with either prophylaxis or treatment in outpatients showing the greatest effects. For the treatment of outpatients with COVID-19, we found a significant association between the dose administered and efficacy in preventing hospitalisation (relative risk 0·77; p<0·0001). Using this relationship, we predicted that no approved monoclonal antibody was expected to provide more than 30% efficacy against some omicron (B.1.1.529) subvariants, such as BQ.1.1. INTERPRETATION: Early administration before hospitalisation and sufficient doses of passive antibody therapy are crucial to achieving high efficacy in preventing clinical progression. The relationship between dose and efficacy provides a framework for the rational assessment of future passive antibody prophylaxis and treatment strategies for COVID-19. FUNDING: The Australian Government Department of Health, Medical Research Future Fund, National Health and Medical Research Council, the University of New South Wales, Monash University, Haematology Society of Australia and New Zealand, Leukaemia Foundation, and the Victorian Government.

Propensity of selecting mutant parasites for the antimalarial drug cabamiquine.

We report an analysis of the propensity of the antimalarial agent cabamiquine, a Plasmodium-specific eukaryotic elongation factor 2 inhibitor, to select for resistant Plasmodium falciparum parasites. Through in vitro studies of laboratory strains and clinical isolates, a humanized mouse model, and volunteer infection studies, we identified resistance-associated mutations at 11 amino acid positions. Of these, six (55%) were present in more than one infection model, indicating translatability across models. Mathematical modelling suggested that resistant mutants were likely pre-existent at the time of drug exposure across studies. Here, we estimated a wide range of frequencies of resistant mutants across the different infection models, much of which can be attributed to stochastic differences resulting from experimental design choices. Structural modelling implicates binding of cabamiquine to a shallow mRNA binding site adjacent to two of the most frequently identified resistance mutations.

Monoclonal antibody levels and protection from COVID-19.

Multiple monoclonal antibodies have been shown to be effective for both prophylaxis and therapy for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Here we aggregate data from randomized controlled trials assessing the use of monoclonal antibodies (mAb) in preventing symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. We use data on the in vivo concentration of mAb and the associated protection from COVID-19 over time to model the dose-response relationship of mAb for prophylaxis. We estimate that 50% protection from COVID-19 is achieved with a mAb concentration of 96-fold of the in vitro IC50 (95% CI: 32-285). This relationship provides a tool for predicting the prophylactic efficacy of new mAb and against SARS-CoV-2 variants. Finally, we compare the relationship between neutralization titer and protection from COVID-19 after either mAb treatment or vaccination. We find no significant difference between the 50% protective titer for mAb and vaccination, although sample sizes limited the power to detect a difference.

Systemic host inflammation induces stage-specific transcriptomic modification and slower maturation in malaria parasites.

Maturation rates of malaria parasites within red blood cells (RBCs) can be influenced by host nutrient status and circadian rhythm; whether host inflammatory responses can also influence maturation remains less clear. Here, we observed that systemic host inflammation induced in mice by an innate immune stimulus, lipopolysaccharide (LPS), or by ongoing acute Plasmodium infection, slowed the progression of a single cohort of parasites from one generation of RBC to the next. Importantly, plasma from LPS-conditioned or acutely infected mice directly inhibited parasite maturation during in vitro culture, which was not rescued by supplementation, suggesting the emergence of inhibitory factors in plasma. Metabolomic assessments confirmed substantial alterations to the plasma of LPS-conditioned and acutely infected mice, and identified a small number of candidate inhibitory metabolites. Finally, we confirmed rapid parasite responses to systemic host inflammation in vivo using parasite scRNA-seq, noting broad impairment in transcriptional activity and translational capacity specifically in trophozoites but not rings or schizonts. Thus, we provide evidence that systemic host inflammation rapidly triggered transcriptional alterations in circulating blood-stage Plasmodium trophozoites and predict candidate inhibitory metabolites in the plasma that may impair parasite maturation in vivo. IMPORTANCE Malaria parasites cyclically invade, multiply, and burst out of red blood cells. We found that a strong inflammatory response can cause changes to the composition of host plasma, which directly slows down parasite maturation. Thus, our work highlights a new mechanism that limits malaria parasite growth in the bloodstream.

The delayed bloodstream clearance of Plasmodium falciparum parasites after M5717 treatment is attributable to the inability to modify their red blood cell hosts.

M5717 is a promising antimalarial drug under development that acts against multiple stages of the life cycle of Plasmodium parasites by inhibiting the translation elongation factor 2 (PfeEF2), thereby preventing protein synthesis. The parasite clearance profile after drug treatment in preclinical studies in mice, and clinical trials in humans showed a notable delayed clearance phenotype whereby parasite infected red blood cells (iRBCs) persisted in the bloodstream for a significant period before eventual clearance. In a normal P. falciparum infection iRBCs sequester in the deep circulation by cytoadherence, allowing them to avoid surveillance and clearance in the spleen. We found that M5717 blocks parasite modification of their host red blood cells (RBCs) by preventing synthesis of new exported proteins, rather than by directly blocking the export of these proteins into the RBC compartment. Using in vitro models, we demonstrated that M5717 treated ring/trophozoite stage iRBCs became less rigid, and cytoadhered less well compared to untreated iRBCs. This indicates that in vivo persistence of M5717 treated iRBCs in the bloodstream is likely due to reduced cytoadherence and splenic clearance.

Estimating long-term vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based approach.

With the ongoing evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus updated vaccines may be needed. We fitted a model linking immunity levels and protection to vaccine effectiveness data from England for three vaccines (Oxford/AstraZeneca AZD1222, Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2, Moderna mRNA-1273) and two variants (Delta, Omicron). Our model reproduces the observed sustained protection against hospitalisation and death from the Omicron variant over the first six months following dose 3 with the ancestral vaccines but projects a gradual waning to moderate protection after 1 year. Switching the fourth dose to a variant-matched vaccine against Omicron BA.1/2 is projected to prevent nearly twice as many hospitalisations and deaths over a 1-year period compared to administering the ancestral vaccine. This result is sensitive to the degree to which immunogenicity data can be used to predict vaccine effectiveness and uncertainty regarding the impact that infection-induced immunity (not captured here) may play in modifying future vaccine effectiveness.

Durable reprogramming of neutralizing antibody responses following Omicron breakthrough infection.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) breakthrough infection of vaccinated individuals is increasingly common with the circulation of highly immune evasive and transmissible Omicron variants. Here, we report the dynamics and durability of recalled spike-specific humoral immunity following Omicron BA.1 or BA.2 breakthrough infection, with longitudinal sampling up to 8 months after infection. Both BA.1 and BA.2 infections robustly boosted neutralization activity against the infecting strain while expanding breadth against BA.4, although neutralization activity was substantially reduced for the more recent XBB and BQ.1.1 strains. Cross-reactive memory B cells against both ancestral and Omicron spike were predominantly expanded by infection, with limited recruitment of de novo Omicron-specific B cells or antibodies. Modeling of neutralization titers predicts that protection from symptomatic reinfection against antigenically similar strains will be durable but is undermined by new emerging strains with further neutralization escape.

Robust and prototypical immune responses toward COVID-19 vaccine in First Nations peoples are impacted by comorbidities.

High-risk groups, including Indigenous people, are at risk of severe COVID-19. Here we found that Australian First Nations peoples elicit effective immune responses to COVID-19 BNT162b2 vaccination, including neutralizing antibodies, receptor-binding domain (RBD) antibodies, SARS-CoV-2 spike-specific B cells, and CD4+ and CD8+ T cells. In First Nations participants, RBD IgG antibody titers were correlated with body mass index and negatively correlated with age. Reduced RBD antibodies, spike-specific B cells and follicular helper T cells were found in vaccinated participants with chronic conditions (diabetes, renal disease) and were strongly associated with altered glycosylation of IgG and increased interleukin-18 levels in the plasma. These immune perturbations were also found in non-Indigenous people with comorbidities, indicating that they were related to comorbidities rather than ethnicity. However, our study is of a great importance to First Nations peoples who have disproportionate rates of chronic comorbidities and provides evidence of robust immune responses after COVID-19 vaccination in Indigenous people.

Predicting the efficacy of variant-modified COVID-19 vaccine boosters.

Booster vaccination for the prevention of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is required to overcome loss of protection due to waning immunity and the spread of novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants. Studies have assessed the ability of existing ancestral-based vaccines as well as novel variant-modified vaccine regimens to boost immunity to different variants, and a crucial question is to assess the relative benefits of these different approaches. Here we aggregate data on neutralization titers from 14 reports (three published papers, eight preprints, two press releases and notes of one advisory committee meeting) comparing booster vaccination with the current ancestral-based vaccines or variant-modified vaccines. Using these data, we compare the immunogenicity of different vaccination regimens and predict the relative protection of booster vaccines under different scenarios. We predict that boosting with ancestral vaccines can markedly enhance protection against both symptomatic and severe disease from SARS-CoV-2 variant viruses, although variant-modified vaccines may provide additional protection, even if not matched to the circulating variants. This work provides an evidence-based framework to inform choices on future SARS-CoV-2 vaccine regimens.

Predicting vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19 over time and against variants: a meta-analysis.

Vaccine protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection has been shown to be strongly correlated with neutralising antibody titres; however, this has not yet been demonstrated for severe COVID-19. To explore whether this relationship also holds for severe COVID-19, we performed a systematic search for studies reporting on protection against different SARS-CoV-2 clinical endpoints and extracted data from 15 studies. Since matched neutralising antibody titres were not available, we used the vaccine regimen, time since vaccination and variant of concern to predict corresponding neutralising antibody titres. We then compared the observed vaccine effectiveness reported in these studies to the protection predicted by a previously published model of the relationship between neutralising antibody titre and vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19. We find that predicted neutralising antibody titres are strongly correlated with observed vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic (Spearman [Formula: see text] = 0.95, p < 0.001) and severe (Spearman [Formula: see text] = 0.72, p < 0.001 for both) COVID-19 and that the loss of neutralising antibodies over time and to new variants are strongly predictive of observed vaccine protection against severe COVID-19.

Evidence for exposure dependent carriage of malaria parasites across the dry season: modelling analysis of longitudinal data.

BACKGROUND: In malaria endemic regions, transmission of Plasmodium falciparum parasites is often seasonal with very low transmission during the dry season and high transmission in the wet season. Parasites survive the dry season within some individuals who experience prolonged carriage of parasites and are thought to 'seed' infection in the next transmission season. METHODS: Dry season carriers and their role in the subsequent transmission season are characterized using a combination of mathematical simulations and data analysis of previously described data from a longitudinal study in Mali of individuals aged 3 months-12 years (n = 579). RESULTS: Simulating the life-history of individuals experiencing repeated exposure to infection predicts that dry season carriage is more likely in the oldest, most exposed and most immune individuals. This hypothesis is supported by the data from Mali, which shows that carriers are significantly older, experience a higher biting rate at the beginning of the transmission season and develop clinical malaria later than non-carriers. Further, since the most exposed individuals in a community are most likely to be dry season carriers, this is predicted to enable a more than twofold faster spread of parasites into the mosquito population at the start of the subsequent wet season. CONCLUSIONS: Carriage of malaria parasites over the months-long dry season in Mali is most likely in the older, more exposed and more immune children. These children may act as super-spreaders facilitating the fast spread of parasites at the beginning of the next transmission season.

Correlates of Protection, Thresholds of Protection, and Immunobridging among Persons with SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

Several studies have shown that neutralizing antibody levels correlate with immune protection from COVID-19 and have estimated the relationship between neutralizing antibodies and protection. However, results of these studies vary in terms of estimates of the level of neutralizing antibodies required for protection. By normalizing antibody titers, we found that study results converge on a consistent relationship between antibody levels and protection from COVID-19. This finding can be useful for planning future vaccine use, determining population immunity, and reducing the global effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Population heterogeneity in Plasmodium vivax relapse risk.

A key characteristic of Plasmodium vivax parasites is their ability to adopt a latent liver-stage form called hypnozoites, able to cause relapse of infection months or years after a primary infection. Relapses of infection through hypnozoite activation are a major contributor to blood-stage infections in P vivax endemic regions and are thought to be influenced by factors such as febrile infections which may cause temporary changes in hypnozoite activation leading to 'temporal heterogeneity' in reactivation risk. In addition, immunity and variation in exposure to infection may be longer-term characteristics of individuals that lead to 'population heterogeneity' in hypnozoite activation. We analyze data on risk of P vivax in two previously published data sets from Papua New Guinea and the Thailand-Myanmar border region. Modeling different mechanisms of reactivation risk, we find strong evidence for population heterogeneity, with 30% of patients having almost 70% of all P vivax infections. Model fitting and data analysis indicates that individual variation in relapse risk is a primary source of heterogeneity of P vivax risk of recurrences. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01640574, NCT01074905, NCT02143934.

The magnitude and timing of recalled immunity after breakthrough infection is shaped by SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 protects from infection and improves clinical outcomes in breakthrough infections, likely reflecting residual vaccine-elicited immunity and recall of immunological memory. Here, we define the early kinetics of spike-specific humoral and cellular immunity after vaccination of seropositive individuals and after Delta or Omicron breakthrough infection in vaccinated individuals. Early longitudinal sampling revealed the timing and magnitude of recall, with the phenotypic activation of B cells preceding an increase in neutralizing antibody titers. While vaccination of seropositive individuals resulted in robust recall of humoral and T cell immunity, recall of vaccine-elicited responses was delayed and variable in magnitude during breakthrough infections and depended on the infecting variant of concern. While the delayed kinetics of immune recall provides a potential mechanism for the lack of early control of viral replication, the recall of antibodies coincided with viral clearance and likely underpins the protective effects of vaccination against severe COVID-19.

Parasite Viability as a Measure of In Vivo Drug Activity in Preclinical and Early Clinical Antimalarial Drug Assessment.

The rate at which parasitemia declines in a host after treatment with an antimalarial drug is a major metric for assessment of antimalarial drug activity in preclinical models and in early clinical trials. However, this metric does not distinguish between viable and nonviable parasites. Thus, enumeration of parasites may result in underestimation of drug activity for some compounds, potentially confounding its use as a metric for assessing antimalarial activity in vivo. Here, we report a study of the effect of artesunate on Plasmodium falciparum viability in humans and in mice. We first measured the drug effect in mice by estimating the decrease in parasite viability after treatment using two independent approaches to estimate viability. We demonstrate that, as previously reported in humans, parasite viability declines much faster after artesunate treatment than does the decline in parasitemia (termed parasite clearance). We also observed that artesunate kills parasites faster at higher concentrations, which is not discernible from the traditional parasite clearance curve and that each subsequent dose of artesunate maintains its killing effect. Furthermore, based on measures of parasite viability, we could accurately predict the in vivo recrudescence of infection. Finally, using pharmacometrics modeling, we show that the apparent differences in the antimalarial activity of artesunate in mice and humans are partly explained by differences in host removal of dead parasites in the two hosts. However, these differences, along with different pharmacokinetic profiles, do not fully account for the differences in activity. (This study has been registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry under identifier ACTRN12617001394336.).