Effectiveness of cladribine compared to fingolimod, natalizumab, ocrelizumab and alemtuzumab in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Comparisons between cladribine and other potent immunotherapies for multiple sclerosis (MS) are lacking. OBJECTIVES: To compare the effectiveness of cladribine against fingolimod, natalizumab, ocrelizumab and alemtuzumab in relapsing-remitting MS. METHODS: Patients with relapsing-remitting MS treated with cladribine, fingolimod, natalizumab, ocrelizumab or alemtuzumab were identified in the global MSBase cohort and two additional UK centres. Patients were followed for ⩾6/12 and had ⩾3 in-person disability assessments. Patients were matched using propensity score. Four pairwise analyses compared annualised relapse rates (ARRs) and disability outcomes. RESULTS: The eligible cohorts consisted of 853 (fingolimod), 464 (natalizumab), 1131 (ocrelizumab), 123 (alemtuzumab) or 493 (cladribine) patients. Cladribine was associated with a lower ARR than fingolimod (0.07 vs. 0.12, p = 0.006) and a higher ARR than natalizumab (0.10 vs. 0.06, p = 0.03), ocrelizumab (0.09 vs. 0.05, p = 0.008) and alemtuzumab (0.17 vs. 0.04, p < 0.001). Compared to cladribine, the risk of disability worsening did not differ in patients treated with fingolimod (hazard ratio (HR) 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.47-2.47) or alemtuzumab (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.26-2.07), but was lower for patients treated with natalizumab (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.13-0.94) and ocrelizumab (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.26-0.78). There was no evidence for a difference in disability improvement. CONCLUSION: Cladribine is an effective therapy that can be viewed as a step up in effectiveness from fingolimod, but is less effective than the most potent intravenous MS therapies.

Machine-learning-based prediction of disability progression in multiple sclerosis: An observational, international, multi-center study.

BACKGROUND: Disability progression is a key milestone in the disease evolution of people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Prediction models of the probability of disability progression have not yet reached the level of trust needed to be adopted in the clinic. A common benchmark to assess model development in multiple sclerosis is also currently lacking. METHODS: Data of adult PwMS with a follow-up of at least three years from 146 MS centers, spread over 40 countries and collected by the MSBase consortium was used. With basic inclusion criteria for quality requirements, it represents a total of 15, 240 PwMS. External validation was performed and repeated five times to assess the significance of the results. Transparent Reporting for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) guidelines were followed. Confirmed disability progression after two years was predicted, with a confirmation window of six months. Only routinely collected variables were used such as the expanded disability status scale, treatment, relapse information, and MS course. To learn the probability of disability progression, state-of-the-art machine learning models were investigated. The discrimination performance of the models is evaluated with the area under the receiver operator curve (ROC-AUC) and under the precision recall curve (AUC-PR), and their calibration via the Brier score and the expected calibration error. All our preprocessing and model code are available at https://gitlab.com/edebrouwer/ms_benchmark, making this task an ideal benchmark for predicting disability progression in MS. FINDINGS: Machine learning models achieved a ROC-AUC of 0⋅71 ± 0⋅01, an AUC-PR of 0⋅26 ± 0⋅02, a Brier score of 0⋅1 ± 0⋅01 and an expected calibration error of 0⋅07 ± 0⋅04. The history of disability progression was identified as being more predictive for future disability progression than the treatment or relapses history. CONCLUSIONS: Good discrimination and calibration performance on an external validation set is achieved, using only routinely collected variables. This suggests machine-learning models can reliably inform clinicians about the future occurrence of progression and are mature for a clinical impact study.

Safety and effectiveness of disease-modifying therapies after switching from natalizumab.

INTRODUCTION: One strategy to mitigate progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) risk is to switch to other highly effective disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). However, the optimal switch DMT following natalizumab (NTZ) discontinuation is yet to be determined. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study is to determine the most effective and tolerable DMTs to switch to following NTZ discontinuation due to John Cunningham virus (JCV) antibody positivity. METHODS: This is a multicenter observational cohort study that included all stable relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) patients who were treated with NTZ for at least 6 months before switching therapy due to JCV antibody positivity. RESULTS: Of 321 patients, 255 switched from NTZ to rituximab/ocrelizumab, 52 to fingolimod, and 14 to alemtuzumab, with higher annualized relapse rate (ARR) in fingolimod switchers (0.193) compared with rituximab/ocrelizumab or alemtuzumab (0.028 and 0.032, respectively). Fingolimod switchers also had increased disability progression (p = 0.014) and a higher proportion developed magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) lesions compared with rituximab/ocrelizumab (62.9% vs. 13.0%, p < 0.001, and 66.6% vs. 24.0%, p < 0.001, respectively). Mean drug survival favored rituximab/ocrelizumab or alemtuzumab over fingolimod (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Our study shows superior effectiveness of rituximab/ocrelizumab and alemtuzumab compared with fingolimod in stable patients switching from NTZ due to JC virus antibody positivity.

Retinal optical coherence tomography measures in multiple sclerosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Spectral domain-optical coherence tomography plays a crucial role in the early detection and monitoring of multiple sclerosis (MS) pathophysiology. We aimed to quantify differences in retinal layer measures among different groups of MS and explored different variables that correlate with retinal measures. This study was reported according PRISMA guidelines. A comprehensive search was done across PubMed, Embase, and Google Scholar. The mean difference in thickness of retinal layers and macular volume was assessed. Meta-regression was done to assess the sources of heterogeneity. A total of 100 articles were included in the meta-analyses. The peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (pRNFL) thickness significantly decreased in the MSON (MD: -16.44, P < 0.001), MSNON (MD: -6.97, P < 0.001), and PMS (MD: -11.35, P < 0.001) versus HC. The macular RNFL was lower among the MSON (MD: -6.24, P = 0.013) and MSNON (MD: -3.84, P <0.001) versus HC. Macular ganglion cell layer and inner plexiform layer (GCIPL) was thinner among MSON (MD: -14.83, P <0.001), MSNON (MD: -6.38, P < 0.001), and PMS (MD: -11.52, P < 0.001) compared with control eyes. Inner nuclear layer (INL) was higher in the MSON (MD: 0.49, P < 0.001) versus HC. Outer nuclear layer (ONL) thickness significantly lower in the MSNON (MD: -1.15, P = 0.019) versus HC. Meta-regression showed that disease duration, age, EDSS score, and percentage of patients taking DMT are all negatively correlated with pRNFL and GCIPL thickness; however, female gender was correlated with less atrophy. As conclusion, the study highlights substantial thinning in the pRNFL and macular GCIPL between MS versus controls. INL as valuable parameter for capturing inflammatory disease activity.

A multi-centre longitudinal study analysing multiple sclerosis disease-modifying therapy prescribing patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic raised concern amongst clinicians that disease-modifying therapies (DMT), particularly anti-CD20 monoclonal antibodies (mAb) and fingolimod, could worsen COVID-19 in people with multiple sclerosis (pwMS). This study aimed to examine DMT prescribing trends pre- and post-pandemic onset. METHODS: A multi-centre longitudinal study with 8,771 participants from MSBase was conducted. Two time periods were defined: pre-pandemic (March 11 2018-March 10 2020) and post-pandemic onset (March 11 2020-11 March 2022). The association between time and prescribing trends was analysed using multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression. DMT initiation refers to first initiation of any DMT, whilst DMT switches indicate changing regimen within 6 months of last use. RESULTS: Post-pandemic onset, there was a significant increase in DMT initiation/switching to natalizumab and cladribine [(Natalizumab-initiation: OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.39-2.13; switching: OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.40-1.98), (Cladribine-initiation: OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.09-1.87; switching: OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.41-1.98)]. Anti-CD20mAb initiation/switching decreased in the year of the pandemic, but recovered in the second year, such that overall odds increased slightly post-pandemic (initiation: OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.06-1.49; Switching: OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.02-1.29. Initiation/switching of fingolimod, interferon-beta, and alemtuzumab significantly decreased [(Fingolimod-initiation: OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.41-0.73; switching: OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.41-0.58), (Interferon-gamma-initiation: OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.41-0.57; switching: OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.62-0.99), (Alemtuzumab-initiation: OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.15-0.48; switching: OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.17-0.44)]. CONCLUSIONS: Post-pandemic onset, clinicians preferentially prescribed natalizumab and cladribine over anti-CD20 mAbs and fingolimod, likely to preserve efficacy but reduce perceived immunosuppressive risks. This could have implications for disease progression in pwMS. Our findings highlight the significance of equitable DMT access globally, and the importance of evidence-based decision-making in global health challenges.

Comparative effectiveness of dimethyl fumarate versus non-specific immunosuppressants: Real-world evidence from MSBase.

Background: The use of non-specific immunosuppressants (NSIS) to treat multiple sclerosis (MS) remains prevalent in certain geographies despite safety concerns, likely due to resource limitations. Objective: To use MSBase registry data to compare real-world outcomes in adults with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) treated with dimethyl fumarate (DMF) or NSIS (azathioprine, cyclosporine, cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, mitoxantrone or mycophenolate mofetil) between January 1, 2014 and April 1, 2022. Methods: Treatment outcomes were compared using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) Cox regression. Outcomes were annualized relapse rates (ARRs), time to discontinuation, time to first relapse (TTFR) and time to 24-week confirmed disability progression (CDP) or 24-week confirmed disability improvement (CDI; in patients with baseline Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS] score ≥2). Results: After IPTW, ARR was similar for DMF (0.13) and NSIS (0.16; p = 0.29). There was no difference in TTFR between cohorts (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.98; p = 0.84). The DMF cohort experienced longer times to discontinuation (HR: 0.75; p = 0.001) and CDP (HR: 0.53; p = 0.001), and shorter time to CDI (HR: 1.99; p < 0.008), versus the NSIS cohort. Conclusion: This analysis supports the use of DMF to treat patients with relapsing forms of MS, and may have implications for MS practices in countries where NSIS are commonly used to treat RRMS.

Routine CSF parameters as predictors of disease course in multiple sclerosis: an MSBase cohort study.

BACKGROUND: It remains unclear whether routine cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) parameters can serve as predictors of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease course. METHODS: This large-scale cohort study included persons with MS with CSF data documented in the MSBase registry. CSF parameters to predict time to reach confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores 4, 6 and 7 and annualised relapse rate in the first 2 years after diagnosis (ARR2) were assessed using (cox) regression analysis. RESULTS: In total, 11 245 participants were included of which 93.7% (n=10 533) were persons with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). In RRMS, the presence of CSF oligoclonal bands (OCBs) was associated with shorter time to disability milestones EDSS 4 (adjusted HR=1.272 (95% CI, 1.089 to 1.485), p=0.002), EDSS 6 (HR=1.314 (95% CI, 1.062 to 1.626), p=0.012) and EDSS 7 (HR=1.686 (95% CI, 1.111 to 2.558), p=0.014). On the other hand, the presence of CSF pleocytosis (≥5 cells/µL) increased time to moderate disability (EDSS 4) in RRMS (HR=0.774 (95% CI, 0.632 to 0.948), p=0.013). None of the CSF variables were associated with time to disability milestones in persons with primary progressive MS (PPMS). The presence of CSF pleocytosis increased ARR2 in RRMS (adjusted R2=0.036, p=0.015). CONCLUSIONS: In RRMS, the presence of CSF OCBs predicts shorter time to disability milestones, whereas CSF pleocytosis could be protective. This could however not be found in PPMS. CSF pleocytosis is associated with short-term inflammatory disease activity in RRMS. CSF analysis provides prognostic information which could aid in clinical and therapeutic decision-making.

Health-related quality of life and utilities among Lebanese patients with Multiple Sclerosis: A cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: This study assessed the Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) and utilities of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) patients in Lebanon using generic and MS-specific QoL instruments, categorized by disease severity, and explored factors associated with HRQoL. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional, retrospective HRQoL study collecting data through face-to-face interviews using the EQ-5D-5 L and the Multiple Sclerosis International Quality of Life (MusiQoL) questionnaires. We enrolled Lebanese patients aged ≥18 years, diagnosed with MS for >6 months. Patients were categorized by disease severity using the expanded disability status scale (EDSS) scores: 0-3 (mild MS), 4-6.5 (moderate MS), and 7-9 (severe MS). Bivariate and linear regression analyses were performed to study factors associated with HRQoL. RESULTS: A total of 210 patients (mean age: 43.3 years; 65.7 % females) were included. The mean EQ-5D-5 L utility score was 0.74. This score decreased significantly with disease severity (p < 0.001 for the trend): 0.93, 0.60, and 0.32 for mild, moderate, and severe MS, respectively. The mean MusiQoL global index score was 71.33 and was significantly lower for severe MS (58.68), than for moderate (65.23) and mild (77.80), (p < 0.001 for the trend). Higher educational level, lower EDSS scores, and longer disease duration were associated significantly with a higher EQ-5D-5 L utility (R2 = 0.67), while employment, lower EDSS scores, and decrease in cognitive difficulties were associated with better MusiQoL utility (R2 = 0.46). CONCLUSIONS: This study reveals a significant and gradual deterioration in HRQoL as MS progresses, resulting in low utility scores for patients with severe MS.

Comparative Effectiveness of Natalizumab, Fingolimod, and Injectable Therapies in Pediatric-Onset Multiple Sclerosis: A Registry-Based Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Patients with pediatric-onset multiple sclerosis (POMS) typically experience higher levels of inflammation with more frequent relapses, and though patients with POMS usually recover from relapses better than adults, patients with POMS reach irreversible disability at a younger age than adult-onset patients. There have been few randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trials of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) in patients with POMS, and most available data are based on observational studies of off-label use of DMTs approved for adults. We assessed the effectiveness of natalizumab compared with fingolimod using injectable platform therapies as a reference in pediatric patients in the global MSBase registry. METHODS: This retrospective study included patients with POMS who initiated treatment with an injectable DMT, natalizumab, or fingolimod between January 1, 2006, and May 3, 2021. Patients were matched using inverse probability treatment weighting. The primary outcome was time to first relapse from index therapy initiation. Secondary study outcomes included annualized relapse rate; proportions of relapse-free patients at 1, 2, and 5 years; time to treatment discontinuation; and times to 24-week confirmed disability worsening and confirmed disability improvement. RESULTS: A total of 1,218 patients with POMS were included in this analysis. Patients treated with fingolimod had a significantly lower risk of relapse than patients treated with injectable DMTs (hazard ratio [HR], 0.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.29-0.83; p = 0.008). After adjustment for prior DMT experience in the unmatched sample, patients treated with natalizumab had a significantly lower risk of relapse than patients treated either with injectable DMTs (HR, 0.15; 95% CI 0.07-0.31; p < 0.001) or fingolimod (HR, 0.37; 95% CI 0.14-1.00; p = 0.049). The adjusted secondary study outcomes were generally consistent with the primary outcome or with previous observations. The findings in the inverse probability treatment weighting-adjusted patient populations were confirmed in multiple sensitivity analyses. DISCUSSION: Our analyses of relapse risk suggest that natalizumab is more effective than fingolimod in the control of relapses in this population with high rates of new inflammatory activity, consistent with previous studies of natalizumab and fingolimod in adult-onset patients and POMS. In addition, both fingolimod and natalizumab were more effective than first-line injectable therapies. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: This study provides Class II evidence that patients with POMS treated with natalizumab had a lower risk of relapse than those with fingolimod.

Psychometric validation of the Arabic multiple sclerosis resiliency scale: Uncovering resilience factors in Lebanese MS patients for clinical and research advancements.

Background: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune demyelinating disease that involves the central nervous system (CNS). Individuals with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) may experience difficulty adapting to their diagnosis as the unpredictable nature of the disease can be challenging to cope with. Methods: The purpose of this study is twofold. First, we have culturally adapted and analyzed the Arabic version of the Multiple Sclerosis Resiliency Scale (MSRS) psychometric properties. Second, we aimed to explore resilience in a sample of Lebanese patients with MS in the face of the chronic disease and financial hardship that Lebanon is going through to evaluate their strengths and struggles. The sample consisted of 306 participants aged between 18 and 79 diagnosed with MS for at least one year. Results: After examining criterion validity, construct validity, internal consistency, and test-retest reliability, the Arabic version of the MSRS exhibited good psychometric properties. The study also revealed that resilience increases with age and lower disability scores. Additionally, individuals with higher resilience levels displayed lower levels of depression. The research revealed that MS patients have high resilience, mainly relying on cognitive and emotional strategies, social support from family and friends, MS peer support, and spirituality. Conclusion: These findings highlight the importance of emotional coping strategies and social support in building resilience among MS patients.

Emulating randomised clinical trials in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis with non-randomised real-world evidence: an application using data from the MSBase Registry.

BACKGROUND: To mimic as closely as possible a randomised controlled trial (RCT) and calibrate the real-world evidence (RWE) studies against a known treatment effect would be helpful to understand if RWE can support causal conclusions in selected circumstances. The aim was to emulate the TRANSFORMS trial comparing Fingolimod (FTY) versus intramuscular interferon ß-1a (IFN) using observational data. METHODS: We extracted from the MSBase registry all the patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) collected in the period 2011-2021 who received IFN or FTY (0.5 mg) and with the same inclusion and exclusion criteria of the TRANSFORMS RCT. The primary endpoint was the annualised relapse rate (ARR) over 12 months. Patients were 1:1 propensity-score (PS) matched. Relapse-rate ratio (RR) was calculated by mean of a negative binomial regression. RESULTS: A total of 4376 patients with RRMS (1140 in IFN and 3236 in FTY) were selected. After PS, 856 patients in each group were matched. The ARR was 0.45 in IFN and 0.25 in FTY with a significant difference between the two groups (RR: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.45 to 0.68; p<0.001). The result of the emulation was very similar and fell within the 95% CI of that observed in the RCT (RR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.37 to 0.64; p<0.001) with a standardised difference of 0.66 (p=0.51). CONCLUSIONS: By applying the same inclusion and exclusion criteria used in the RCT and employing appropriate methodology, we successfully replicated the RCT results with only minor discrepancies. Also, even if the confounding bias cannot be fully eliminated, conducting a rigorous target trial emulation could still yield valuable insights for comparative effectiveness research.

Predictors of treatment switching in the Big Multiple Sclerosis Data Network.

Background: Treatment switching is a common challenge and opportunity in real-world clinical practice. Increasing diversity in disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) has generated interest in the identification of reliable and robust predictors of treatment switching across different countries, DMTs, and time periods. Objective: The objective of this retrospective, observational study was to identify independent predictors of treatment switching in a population of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients in the Big Multiple Sclerosis Data Network of national clinical registries, including the Italian MS registry, the OFSEP of France, the Danish MS registry, the Swedish national MS registry, and the international MSBase Registry. Methods: In this cohort study, we merged information on 269,822 treatment episodes in 110,326 patients from 1997 to 2018 from five clinical registries. Patients were included in the final pooled analysis set if they had initiated at least one DMT during the relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) stage. Patients not diagnosed with RRMS or RRMS patients not initiating DMT therapy during the RRMS phase were excluded from the analysis. The primary study outcome was treatment switching. A multilevel mixed-effects shared frailty time-to-event model was used to identify independent predictors of treatment switching. The contributing MS registry was included in the pooled analysis as a random effect. Results: Every one-point increase in the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score at treatment start was associated with 1.08 times the rate of subsequent switching, adjusting for age, sex, and calendar year (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.08; 95% CI 1.07-1.08). Women were associated with 1.11 times the rate of switching relative to men (95% CI 1.08-1.14), whilst older age was also associated with an increased rate of treatment switching. DMTs started between 2007 and 2012 were associated with 2.48 times the rate of switching relative to DMTs that began between 1996 and 2006 (aHR 2.48; 95% CI 2.48-2.56). DMTs started from 2013 onwards were more likely to switch relative to the earlier treatment epoch (aHR 8.09; 95% CI 7.79-8.41; reference = 1996-2006). Conclusion: Switching between DMTs is associated with female sex, age, and disability at baseline and has increased in frequency considerably in recent years as more treatment options have become available. Consideration of a patient's individual risk and tolerance profile needs to be taken into account when selecting the most appropriate switch therapy from an expanding array of treatment choices.